Confirmed with Link: WPG acquiring Nino Niederreiter from NASH for a 24 2nd

[surixon]

I'm contemplating how solid a team the Jets must have been if they could play lazy and uninspired hockey down the stretch and still be 7th in the NHL in expected goals share (5v5) in the last 30+ games.

I know this will be a contrarian take, but I'm not sure there isn't overreaction to the playoff loss to Vegas. The Jets were missing their top W, and their top D (by a long way) and top C got injured, and they had the 2nd best goalie. Watching Vegas easily handle the Oilers and Stars in the playoffs suggests they are a pretty strong opponent. After all they finished with >110 points without Stone for half the season and Eichel out for 15.

Yeah, the Jets weren't as bad the second half as some make it out to be. They had horrible shooting luck the second half and Helle's play took a dip.

 

[gojetsgo]

I'm contemplating how solid a team the Jets must have been if they could play lazy and uninspired hockey down the stretch and still be 7th in the NHL in expected goals share (5v5) in the last 30+ games.

I know this will be a contrarian take, but I'm not sure there isn't overreaction to the playoff loss to Vegas. The Jets were missing their top W, and their top D (by a long way) and top C got injured, and they had the 2nd best goalie. Watching Vegas easily handle the Oilers and Stars in the playoffs suggests they are a pretty strong opponent. After all they finished with >110 points without Stone for half the season and Eichel out for 15.

this team isn't as bad as people think it is, I think what's holding it back is the lack of depth, we went way to long of a stretch with out any production from the bottom six and that was followed up by our top 6 going cold, we need to stop running a top 6 bottom 6 setup and build 3 scoring lines which can also give us the ability to move one of our top players down the line up when they need a kick in the ass to get going, it's hard to do that when the only options score at a 4th line rate or worse

 

[surixon]

this team isn't as bad as people think it is, I think what's holding it back is the lack of depth, we went way to long of a stretch with out any production from the bottom six and that was followed up by our top 6 going cold, we need to stop running a top 6 bottom 6 setup and build 3 scoring lines which can also give us the ability to move one of our top players down the line up when they need a kick in the ass to get going, it's hard to do that when the only options score at a 4th line rate or worse

Fully agree.

 

[LowLefty]

this team isn't as bad as people think it is, I think what's holding it back is the lack of depth, we went way to long of a stretch with out any production from the bottom six and that was followed up by our top 6 going cold, we need to stop running a top 6 bottom 6 setup and build 3 scoring lines which can also give us the ability to move one of our top players down the line up when they need a kick in the ass to get going, it's hard to do that when the only options score at a 4th line rate or worse

I don't disagree that we have depth problems with our bottom bunch -
But I also know that we played very well in the front half of the season with less depth -

Personally, I think the work fell off for a stint and the bottom 6 couldn't save us - no surprise.
What's ironic is that we performed better with some of the workhorses over how we performed when we were pretty much intact.
We lost our way during that stretch - we forgot the game plan and though we could get it done in skill alone.

So, I guess I don't necessarily think we are that good without the hard work - at least that's how it appeared (and Bones seemed to agree even if the players didn't).

 

[surixon]

I don't disagree that we have depth problems with our bottom bunch -
But I also know that we played very well in the front half of the season with less depth -

Personally, I think the work fell off for a stint and the bottom 6 couldn't save us - no surprise.
What's ironic is that we performed better with some of the workhorses over how we performed when we were pretty much intact.
We lost our way during that stretch - we forgot the game plan and though we could get it done in skill alone.

So, I guess I don't necessarily think we are that good without the hard work - at least that's how it appeared (and Bones seemed to agree even if the players didn't).

Yet somehow they slacked their way to much better underlying metrics the back half then they did the first half. Doesn't seem to compute imo.

The team has league average finish the back half and no one is talking about work ethic imo.

 

[Whileee]

This graphic explains the Jets season in a nutshell.

They improved their control of play and scoring chances down the stretch but went ice-cold in finishing/scoring and their goalies went cold.

Many fans and pundits seem to ignore these data to buttress the narrative that the team is full of quitters. I think that's a bad assessment, not supported by the data. I also think Bowness didn't understand what was going on when the pressure mounted.

 

[Teppo Numenor]

This graphic explains the Jets season in a nutshell.

They improved their control of play and scoring chances down the stretch but went ice-cold in finishing/scoring and their goalies went cold.

Many fans and pundits seem to ignore these data to buttress the narrative that the team is full of quitters. I think that's a bad assessment, not supported by the data. I also think Bowness didn't understand what was going on when the pressure mounted.

Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people

 

[Buffdog]

This graphic explains the Jets season in a nutshell.

They improved their control of play and scoring chances down the stretch but went ice-cold in finishing/scoring and their goalies went cold.

Many fans and pundits seem to ignore these data to buttress the narrative that the team is full of quitters. I think that's a bad assessment, not supported by the data. I also think Bowness didn't understand what was going on when the pressure mounted.

In the last game of the playoffs, Vegas had 25M in cap more than us on the ice. We were missing our 42 goal scorer and our Norris candidate 1D. Ehlers and PLD were also nowhere near 100%. To that end, saying that the Jets were quitters for losing that game is completely unfair.

HOWEVER... having watched that game, it didn't seem like the guys on the ice were trying to crawl over their dead mothers to force a game 6. Could they have done more, or given more? I can't say for 100%, but it seemed that way

 

[UFO]

Need to get me a reverse retro 2.0 Nino jersey. does anyone know when they usually get on sale?

 

[LowLefty]

Yet somehow they slacked their way to much better underlying metrics the back half then they did the first half. Doesn't seem to compute imo.

The team has league average finish the back half and no one is talking about work ethic imo.

I just watch the games and call 'em like I see 'em -
We did not play the same game - we moved to a more passive approach - we lost a step and we lost a lot of battles.
It was obvious - and the coach called it out several times. I assume he has access to the stats.

I guess we can look at the states and ignore it all - personally, I don't watch games that way.

 

[Whileee]

In the last game of the playoffs, Vegas had 25M in cap more than us on the ice. We were missing our 42 goal scorer and our Norris candidate 1D. Ehlers and PLD were also nowhere near 100%. To that end, saying that the Jets were quitters for losing that game is completely unfair.

HOWEVER... having watched that game, it didn't seem like the guys on the ice were trying to crawl over their dead mothers to force a game 6. Could they have done more, or given more? I can't say for 100%, but it seemed that way

I don't disagree with any of that. Some of it was effort, but some was just the persistently poor defensive play of Connor. The Jets were behind very quickly in Game 5, largely on plays where Connor was just waving his stick. That's usual for Connor. Usually, Dubois is more engaged defensively, but perhaps his injury impeded him.

Looking at the playoffs since the Jets' departure, the Stars are just rolling over on their backs (compared to the Jets), and the Canes are all saying that their 0-4 sweep wasn't a reflection of their play, and they were just unlucky. I'm trying to imagine the reaction in Winnipeg to those dynamics.

 

[surixon]

I just watch the games and call 'em like I see 'em -
We did not play the same game - we moved to a more passive approach - we lost a step and we lost a lot of battles.
It was obvious - and the coach called it out several times. I assume he has access to the stats.

I guess we can look at the states and ignore it all - personally, I don't watch games that way.

I'm not ignoring everything but I find it hard to believe a passive team massively cuts chances against down and maintains a high number of quality chances. At times they got frustrated and reverted no disagreements but by and large they played well enough to win the back half. The one thing I will agree on is the PP got passive and lazy and that cost us.

 

[Whileee]

I just watch the games and call 'em like I see 'em -
We did not play the same game - we moved to a more passive approach - we lost a step and we lost a lot of battles.
It was obvious - and the coach called it out several times. I assume he has access to the stats.

I guess we can look at the states and ignore it all - personally, I don't watch games that way.

I watch the games, too. My response was different than yours. Other than a very bad and stagnant power play (which I think might have lagged without Lauer behind the bench), I didn't think the Jets' play and process changed very much. Their goalies sprung a leak and their scorers went very cold. So they were playing behind a lot more than before, and that is frustrating to watch, leading to identifying all of the ways that they could be better.

But I think the data reflected what I observed watching the games. Poor finishing (lots of posts / missed nets / hot goalies against), and too many weak goals let in by our goalies to have the team playing from behind.

I would also note that every public data analytical system found the same thing: the Jets were generating more expected goals and giving up fewer in the second half, and the Jets were actually the top team in the Central for the final stretch (see below).

I think big mistakes can be made in assessing a team if the process and underlying play is not understood. In the conflagration of "disgust" and recriminations at the end of the Jets' season (with many fingers being pointed), I think many media and fans have overreacted. I hope the Jets' management and coaches study things objectively.

 

[Weezeric]

Some nice discussion here.

I, for one, am disappointed we didn’t get to see the team with all their forwards healthy. This looks like a pretty formidable top 9 to be honest.

Connor-PLD-Nino
Perfetti-Scheif-Ehlers
Names-Lowry-Wheeler

Injuries make the depth look worse. Perfetti played exactly 10:18 combined all year with Nino or Ehlers.

 

[LowLefty]

I watch the games, too. My response was different than yours. Other than a very bad and stagnant power play (which I think might have lagged without Lauer behind the bench), I didn't think the Jets' play and process changed very much. Their goalies sprung a leak and their scorers went very cold. So they were playing behind a lot more than before, and that is frustrating to watch, leading to identifying all of the ways that they could be better.

But I think the data reflected what I observed watching the games. Poor finishing (lots of posts / missed nets / hot goalies against), and too many weak goals let in by our goalies to have the team playing from behind.

I would also note that every public data analytical system found the same thing: the Jets were generating more expected goals and giving up fewer in the second half, and the Jets were actually the top team in the Central for the final stretch (see below).

I think big mistakes can be made in assessing a team if the process and underlying play is not understood. In the conflagration of "disgust" and recriminations at the end of the Jets' season (with many fingers being pointed), I think many media and fans have overreacted. I hope the Jets' management and coaches study things objectively.

View attachment 712539

I'm not debating the stats - but IMO, their game fell off in terms of energy and work ethic.
I'm sure frustration and goaltending played a role in driving that issue - but the problem was there none the less.
We were not fighting through to that middle ice or net front (other than maybe the bottom 6 crew) - we were were not supporting our D the way we were - the odd man rushes against were significant. Much of our ozone work looked a lot like our PP - perimeter play and slow. Our zone entries reverted back to a tentative approach that usually stalled at the blue line. We dumped the simple approach that was being preached - over passing, over thinking on the offense.

Those are things that I see as a fan - the coach was also stating much the same. And I'm not lining up with Bones on this just because he is the coach - I was seeing the same things.

I'm fine with the stat POV - and it's adds to the discussion. But I'm not a fan of others telling me I don't understand the stats and therefore I'm wrong, misinformed, or maybe just not educated enough to really understand what is going on out there.

 

[tbcwpg]

I watch the games, too. My response was different than yours. Other than a very bad and stagnant power play (which I think might have lagged without Lauer behind the bench), I didn't think the Jets' play and process changed very much. Their goalies sprung a leak and their scorers went very cold. So they were playing behind a lot more than before, and that is frustrating to watch, leading to identifying all of the ways that they could be better.

But I think the data reflected what I observed watching the games. Poor finishing (lots of posts / missed nets / hot goalies against), and too many weak goals let in by our goalies to have the team playing from behind.

I would also note that every public data analytical system found the same thing: the Jets were generating more expected goals and giving up fewer in the second half, and the Jets were actually the top team in the Central for the final stretch (see below).

I think big mistakes can be made in assessing a team if the process and underlying play is not understood. In the conflagration of "disgust" and recriminations at the end of the Jets' season (with many fingers being pointed), I think many media and fans have overreacted. I hope the Jets' management and coaches study things objectively.

View attachment 712539

I remember that East coast swing in March sometime, they went into NJ and Long Island and lost but played well enough to win, then they got cratered at MSG but won.

I agree that changes shouldn't be made solely off the results of the back half of the season. However, with the comments for multiple years now about how the team isn't accountable (as per Stastny), how it sucked the joy of the game out of Maurice, how Bowness came out multiple times about the effort, combined with the contract status of some key pieces, that changes will be made.

 

[gojetsgo]

I watch the games, too. My response was different than yours. Other than a very bad and stagnant power play (which I think might have lagged without Lauer behind the bench), I didn't think the Jets' play and process changed very much. Their goalies sprung a leak and their scorers went very cold. So they were playing behind a lot more than before, and that is frustrating to watch, leading to identifying all of the ways that they could be better.

But I think the data reflected what I observed watching the games. Poor finishing (lots of posts / missed nets / hot goalies against), and too many weak goals let in by our goalies to have the team playing from behind.

I would also note that every public data analytical system found the same thing: the Jets were generating more expected goals and giving up fewer in the second half, and the Jets were actually the top team in the Central for the final stretch (see below).

I think big mistakes can be made in assessing a team if the process and underlying play is not understood. In the conflagration of "disgust" and recriminations at the end of the Jets' season (with many fingers being pointed), I think many media and fans have overreacted. I hope the Jets' management and coaches study things objectively.

View attachment 712539

I think a lot of people around here were ok with how the jets were playing in the second half until we would have a dud of a game and that would change peoples view of our losses, kind of like game 5, I think most people were ok with the jets playing in the series given the injuries we were going thru until game 5 happened and it changed people's minds on how the entire series went

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm contemplating how solid a team the Jets must have been if they could play lazy and uninspired hockey down the stretch and still be 7th in the NHL in expected goals share (5v5) in the last 30+ games.

I know this will be a contrarian take, but I'm not sure there isn't overreaction to the playoff loss to Vegas. The Jets were missing their top W, and their top D (by a long way) and top C got injured, and they had the 2nd best goalie. Watching Vegas easily handle the Oilers and Stars in the playoffs suggests they are a pretty strong opponent. After all they finished with >110 points without Stone for half the season and Eichel out for 15.

I'm not sure there is much reaction to the PO loss to Vegas except insomuch as they appeared to not bother showing up for the last game. Otherwise, I think they simply fulfilled expectations or exceeded them by winning 1 game.

I think the reaction you are seeing is to the second half of the season and how it fit in with the previous several seasons. It is not a hot take based on one 5 game PO series.

 

[DRW204]

Some nice discussion here.

I, for one, am disappointed we didn’t get to see the team with all their forwards healthy. This looks like a pretty formidable top 9 to be honest.

Connor-PLD-Nino
Perfetti-Scheif-Ehlers
Names-Lowry-Wheeler

Injuries make the depth look worse. Perfetti played exactly 10:18 combined all year with Nino or Ehlers.

Agreed. Ninos addition, or a player like him was something I was hoping for last off season. And a shame both Perfetti and Ehlers got hurt again and this lineup was never at full health considering there may be some turnover in the top 6 next year.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Have we ever strayed off the thread topic

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't disagree with any of that. Some of it was effort, but some was just the persistently poor defensive play of Connor. The Jets were behind very quickly in Game 5, largely on plays where Connor was just waving his stick. That's usual for Connor. Usually, Dubois is more engaged defensively, but perhaps his injury impeded him.

Looking at the playoffs since the Jets' departure, the Stars are just rolling over on their backs (compared to the Jets), and the Canes are all saying that their 0-4 sweep wasn't a reflection of their play, and they were just unlucky. I'm trying to imagine the reaction in Winnipeg to those dynamics.

Canes/Fla series was all about goaltending. 1 team got it, in spades. The other team did not have it at all. 4-0 sweep.

Dallas goaltending has been very weak. Vegas has been either very bad or very good. Has been good enough to get them where they are with the rest of the team playing well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not ignoring everything but I find it hard to believe a passive team massively cuts chances against down and maintains a high number of quality chances. At times they got frustrated and reverted no disagreements but by and large they played well enough to win the back half. The one thing I will agree on is the PP got passive and lazy and that cost us.

The good record in the first half was built on ST, so the collapse of the PP in the 2nd half is enough explanation for what happened if you want to judge by stats. Use the eye test and the style of play, the intensity were just not there in the 2nd half. At least not often enough. Can a lack of finish be attributed to a lack of intensity? If the lack of intensity leads to a perimeter game, or a reluctance to go to the hard places, then yes.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I'm contemplating how solid a team the Jets must have been if they could play lazy and uninspired hockey down the stretch and still be 7th in the NHL in expected goals share (5v5) in the last 30+ games.

I know this will be a contrarian take, but I'm not sure there isn't overreaction to the playoff loss to Vegas. The Jets were missing their top W, and their top D (by a long way) and top C got injured, and they had the 2nd best goalie. Watching Vegas easily handle the Oilers and Stars in the playoffs suggests they are a pretty strong opponent. After all they finished with >110 points without Stone for half the season and Eichel out for 15.

I think they were let down by some poor finishing from players and a really anemic power play during that stretch.

If we don't get some injuries and win that OT we might be pushing our way to the cup

 

[surixon]

The good record in the first half was built on ST, so the collapse of the PP in the 2nd half is enough explanation for what happened if you want to judge by stats. Use the eye test and the style of play, the intensity were just not there in the 2nd half. At least not often enough. Can a lack of finish be attributed to a lack of intensity? If the lack of intensity leads to a perimeter game, or a reluctance to go to the hard places, then yes.

The issue is this isn't supported by anything but fans eye tests. The data shows that the much maligned lazy top 6 actually did a better job getting to the tough areas infornt of the net the back half of the year.

Here are there individual high danger chances generation per 60. First half then second half

Scheifele 3.25 4.68
Wheeler 4.36 2.96
Conner 5.33 4.12
Perfetti 3.16 3.91
Dubois 4.45 6.52
Total 20.55 22.19

So as a collective they generated roughly 1.75 more high danger chances for 60 then they did the first half. Sure Wheeler and Conner saw individual dips but that was more then made up for in increases by Scheifele, Perfetti and Dubois.

I honestly think many on here look for things more when the team is loosing and ignore the same things when teams are winning.

 

[buggs]

Perfetti 3.16 3.91


So as a collective they generated roughly 1.75 more high danger chances for 60 then they did the first half. Sure Wheeler and Conner saw individual dips but that was more then made up for in increases by Scheifele, Perfetti and Dubois.

I honestly think many on here look for things more when the team is loosing and ignore the same things when teams are winning.

Your conclusion may be correct, but I take issue with the notion that Perfetti offset much of anything, given he was injured on February 19. If we count the "second half" as post all-star break, Perfetti played a whopping 4 games including the one he was injured in (New Jersey).