Whileee
Registered User
- May 29, 2010
- 46,445
- 34,548
It's called regression to the mean, and it's a well-known statistical phenomenon for random processes. NHL scoring and saving demonstrate a lot of randomness.So .... just the law of averages catching up?
Why such long stretches of an entire team being affected in the same way?
If the Jets weren't getting as many shots or expected goals, you could claim that it was a dip in performance. In the second half of the season the Jets were top-10 in the NHL in 5v5 scoring chance share. Top 10 in high danger shot attempt share.
The Jets shooting percentage and save percentages:
Before Jan. 15:
Sh% 11.3 (4th)
Save% 91.6 (3rd)
Jan 15 to season end...
Sh% 8.5 (32nd)
Save% 90.4 (11th)
I think the most reasonable assessment is that the Jets were "hot" in the first half in scoring, and very "cold" in the second half. It happens.
Smart GMs and coaches (like Brind'Amour) understand these trends and don't get carried away with bad assessments.