Blue Jays Discussion: Would rather get punched in May than knocked out in October - ALCS bound!

[TimeZone]

Absolute choke-job by the Giants.

Wow.

 

[ECanuck]

Come on Cubs. Don't screw this up.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Haha Giants

 

[zeke]

epic

 

[Rysto]

This SF bullpen is brutal.

The error that put the go-ahead run in scoring position was also awful. He missed the bag by at least five feet. How do you do that?

 

[Daisy Jane]

But It's an Even Year!

 

[theaub]

And with that Cubs win you can pretty much lock it up that Game 4 and 5 will be 4 PM starts.

 

[PG Canuck]

Can pretty much lock up the Cubs heading to the WS now IMO. Would love to see them get knocked out but I just don't see it being realistic.

 

[PG Canuck]

I get that, but there is still 0 potential benefit for the Jays in naming the starter now.

It makes no difference either way. They are studying Estrada regardless, just like the Jays are studying Kluber/Bauer. If the Indians name Bauer the game 1 starter, the Jays aren't going to be like "holy ****, what do we do? We studied Kluber for four days straight and now Bauer is starting? We are ****ed"

 

[King Mapes]

It makes no difference either way. They are studying Estrada regardless, just like the Jays are studying Kluber/Bauer. If the Indians name Bauer the game 1 starter, the Jays aren't going to be like "holy ****, what do we do? We studied Kluber for four days straight and now Bauer is starting? We are ****ed"

Yup. 4 days off you aren't going to do nothing. They are studying all 4 pitchers. I still think it's funny how batters seem to always swing late on Estrada. An 88 mph fastball and you swing late?

 

[KapG]

Yup. 4 days off you aren't going to do nothing. They are studying all 4 pitchers. I still think it's funny how batters seem to always swing late on Estrada. An 88 mph fastball and you swing late?

Well

He does have one of the best changeups in baseball. Probably has something to do with it

 

[RedHead Kingpin]

I apologize if this has been asked before. What are the requirements for announcing your pitching order? Is it required by MLB? Could you say you're starting one pitcher and then start the other? Is it a moot point because they're so well prepared for whatever pitcher plays?

 

[Discoverer]

Can pretty much lock up the Cubs heading to the WS now IMO. Would love to see them get knocked out but I just don't see it being realistic.

The team they play next will be better than the Giants.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Can pretty much lock up the Cubs heading to the WS now IMO. Would love to see them get knocked out but I just don't see it being realistic.

While the Cubs will be favoured against the Nationals or Dodgers, it certainly won't be a cakewalk. It's not like they steamrolled the Giants. Game 1 was decided by one bad pitch from Cueto. And this series should be going to Game 5 tomorrow if the Giants' bullpen didn't completely implode in the 9th.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yup. 4 days off you aren't going to do nothing. They are studying all 4 pitchers. I still think it's funny how batters seem to always swing late on Estrada. An 88 mph fastball and you swing late?

It is amazing how batters just can't seem to pick up his pitches

 

[King Mapes]

Well

He does have one of the best changeups in baseball. Probably has something to do with it

No kidding but still funny watching so many batters look ridiculous when he doesn't throw hard at all.

 

[inthe6ix]

It is amazing how batters just can't seem to pick up his pitches

Consistency is key; his arm angle is the same for all pitches so picking them up is very difficult when they come over the top and you have split seconds to start your swing.

 

[ADifferentTim]

But It's an Even Year!

I'm calling it right now: the SF Giants will have a total of 4 in 9 years, a la 80s 49ers.

 

[zeke]

Toronto - Cleveland

Hitter WAR = avg of fwar and bwar per 650pa

2B Travis (25): 432pa, .358babip, 109wrc+, 4.0war
DH Santana (30): 688pa, .258babip, 132wrc+, 3.2war

3B Donaldson (30): 700pa, .300babip, 155wrc+, 7.0war
2B Kipnis (29): 688pa, .324babip, 117wrc+, 4.2war

1B En'cion (33): 702pa, .270babip, 134wrc+, 3.5war
SS Lindor (22): 684pa, .324babip, 112wrc+, 5.7war

DH Bautista (35): 517pa, .255babip, 122wrc+, 1.6war
1B Napoli (34): 645pa, .296babip, 113wrc+, 1.1war

C Martin (33): 535pa, .291babip, 99wrc+, 2.2war
3B Ramirez (23): 618pa, .333babip, 122wrc+, 4.5war

SS Tulowitzki (31): 544pa, .272babip, 102wrc+, 3.6war
RF Chisenhall (27): 418pa, .328babip, 103wrc+, 2.0war

RF Saunders (29): 558pa, .321babip, 117wrc+, 1.6war
CF Naquin (25): 365pa, .411babip, 135wrc+, 2.9war

LF Carrera (28): 310pa, .311babip, 85wrc+, 1.4war
LF Crisp (36): 498pa, .252babip, 90wrc+, 0.0war

CF Pillar (27): 584pa, .306babip, 80wrc+, 3.7war
C Perez (27): 184pa, .299babip, 58wrc+, 1.6war



UT Smoak (29): 341pa, .295babip, 90wrc+, -0.6war
UT Guyer (30): 345pa, .300babip, 122wrc+, 2.7war

OF Upton (31): 539pa, .300babip, 84wrc+, 1.5war
OF Davis (35): 495pa, .299babip, 85wrc+, 1.6war

IF Barney (30): 306pa, .310babip, 86wrc+, 3.5war
IF Martinez (33): 106pa, .299babip, 51wrc+, -0.3war

C Navarro (32): 334pa, .248babip, 56wrc+, -1.2war
C Gomes (28): 264pa, .189babip, 33wrc+, -1.7war

OF Pompey (23): 2pa, .000babip, -100wrc+, -16.3war
C Gimenez (33): 155pa, .274babip, 60wrc+, -2.3war



Starters WAR = avg of fwar and ra9war per 32gs

SP Sanchez (23): 30gs, 6.4ip/gs, 70era-, 82fip-, 88xfip-, 5.1war
SP Kluber (30): 32gs, 6.7ip/gs, 73era-, 76fip-, 82xfip-, 5.4war

SP Happ (33): 32gs, 6.1ip/gs, 74era-, 92fip-, 98xfip-, 4.3war
SP Bauer (25): 28gs, 6.2ip/gs, 102era-, 94fip-, 96fip-, 2.6war

SP Estrada (32): 29gs, 6.1ip/gs, 81era-, 96fip-, 109xfip-, 3.9war
SP Tomlin (31): 29gs, 6.0ip/gs, 104era-, 115fip-, 97xfip-, 1.3war

SP Stroman (25): 32gs, 6.4ip/gs, 102era-, 86fip-, 80xfip-, 3.1war
SP Salazar* (26): 25gs, 5.5ip/gs, 91era-, 87fip-, 88xfip-, 3.3war


Relievers WAR = avg of fwar and ra9war per 65ip

RP Osuna (21): 72gms, 74.0ip, 63era-, 74fip-, 85xfip-, 1.8war
RP Miller (31): 70gms, 74.1ip, 34era-, 38fip-, 27xfip-, 2.8war

RP Biagini (26): 60gms, 67.2ip, 72era-, 68fip-, 87xfip-, 1.0war
RP Otero (31): 62gms, 70.2ip, 36era-, 54fip-, 67xfip-, 1.8war

RP Grilli (39): 67gms, 59.0ip, 97era-, 103fip-, 96xfip-, 0.3war
RP Allen (27): 67gms, 68.0ip, 59era-, 77fip-, 72xfip-, 1.3war

RP Cecil (29): 54gms, 36.2ip, 92era-, 84fip-, 67xfip-, 0.6war
RP McCallister (28): 51gms, 49.1ip, 73era-, 86fip-, 103xfip-, 0.9war

RP Tepera (27): 20gms, 18.1ip, 69era-, 86fip-, 100xfip-, 0.4war
RP Shaw (28): 75gms, 66.2ip, 76era-, 92fip-, 84xfip-, 0.7war

RP Feldman (33): 35gms, 52.1ip, 98era-, 93fip-, 86xfip-, 0.3war
RP Manship (31): 53gms, 43.1ip, 73era-, 120fip-, 113xfip-, 0.0war

RP Liriano (32): 2gms, 2.0ip, 210era-, 155fip-, 22xfip-, -1.6war
RP Clevinger* (25): 7gs, 12.0ip, 70era-, 48fip-, 81xfip-, 1.6war
RP Anderson* (25): 7gs, 16.1ip, 102era-, 94fip-, 81xfip, 0.4war

Notes:

- Salazar may be healthy, may not be, probably in bullpen if healthy - but I don’t know if they have a 4th SP otherwise. I guess clevinger or andersen would fill in if necessary
- Cleveland uses pretty much 2 (arguably even 3) full platoons in the OF

 

[mapleleafs34]

Praying for a Dodgers win tonight so Game 4 of the ALCS has any chance to be at 7:00.....

 

[zeke]

Another way to look at the teams is how Fangraphs' Rest-of-Season Depth Chart Projections (average of STEAMER and ZIPS projections) sees the two sets of players performing in the immediate future:

wRC+

1. 2B Travis 102 ------- DH Santana 124
2. 3B Donaldson 140 --- 2B Kipnis 107
3. 1B Encarnacion 133 - SS Lindor 103
4. RF Bautista 132 ----- 1B Napoli 108
5. SS Tulowitzki 106 --- 3B Ramirez 99
6. DH Saunders 106 ---- RF Chisenhall 97
7. C Martin 99 --------- CF Naquin 95
8. CF Pillar 87 ---------- LF Crisp 90
9. LF Upton 84 --------- C Perez 72

B. UT Smoak 93 -------- UT Guyer 109
B. OF Carrera 78 ------- OF Davis 82
B. IF Barney 71 -------- IF Martinez 60
B. C Navarro 78 -------- C Gomes 76
B. OF Pompey 81 ------ C Gimenez 67


ERA

SP Stroman 3.71 ------ Kluber 3.28
SP Sanchez 3.74 ------ Bauer 4.20
SP Estrada 3.99 ------- Tomlin 4.48
SP Happ 4.09 --------- Anderson 4.35 / Clevinger 4.80

RP Osuna 2.97 -------- Miller 1.80
RP Cecil 3.06 ---------- Allen 2.99
RP Grilli 3.56 ----------- Otero 3.35
RP Loup 3.56 ---------- Shaw 3.70
RP Biagini 3.70 -------- McAllister 3.75
RP Tepera 3.89 -------- Manship 4.20
RP Liriano 3.99 --------- Anderson 4.35 / Salazar
RP Feldman 4.21 ------- Clevinger 4.80 / Salazar

 

[theaub]

Praying for a Dodgers win tonight so Game 4 of the ALCS has any chance to be at 7:00.....

Jays are a lock to be at 4:00 for Games 4/5

Hell if the Dodgers win its even more of a lock since there's no way they're getting the 1 PM local slot.

 

[Dough72]

It is amazing how batters just can't seem to pick up his pitches

it's awesome. Even the guys undoubtedly sitting on his fastball, and timing it right, still usually can't do anything with it

has to be that spin-rate thing. Rangers announcer said his fastball looks like a pool-ball which I assume means it has no seams. Guess that messes with fine-tuned pro hitters more than you'd think

I think the Jays should round up all their worst minor league pitchers, the ones that have nothing to lose messing with their delivery, and teach them how to increase spin rate if such a thing is possible, and see what happens. Maybe we will have 5 harder-throwing marco estradas a few years from now

 

[mapleleafs34]

Jays are a lock to be at 4:00 for Games 4/5

Hell if the Dodgers win its even more of a lock since there's no way they're getting the 1 PM local slot.

Why wouldnt they play at 7:00 local time? 10:00 EST?

 

[theaub]

CS doubleheaders are always 4/8 EST starts.