Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Draft is June 28th @ 4pm PT. ESPN. ESPN+)

[tomd]

Im usually absolutely against waiting more than a season for a top 5 pick to be ready. In the ducks case, we will be signing/trading for a right shot top 4 d this summer. And we have kids who need to play and develop the next couple of years on the big club anyways. 2 years in the khl isn’t ideal but it’s not a deal breaker. That said, Lindstrom seems to make the most sense right now, given he would be with the ducks late next season?

The 2023 draft spoiled us.

 

[Boo Boo]

I wonder if the player that they pick could play next year and get the load management treatment

 

[Static]

Not really. He probably shouldn't be in the NHL anyway. We have Fowler for a few more years too.

There's a nice middle ground between being ready out of the gate and a few years away. I don't expect anyone we get at three to play next season.

 

[lwvs84]

If Ducks scouts view Silayev as the best D available, I have no problem with waiting 2 years. Sign a RHD to a longer term deal (will probably have to be 5-6 years at least), and trade for an overpaid one that's still NHL caliber who has 1 more year (like Kulikov/Lybushkin the last 2 years). Let Luneau start in the AHL to get back into game shape and move the expiring vet D at the deadline and let Luneau get some games. Luneau becomes full time the following season then Silayev comes over the season after that (when Fowler and Gudas are both UFA). Other option is don't trade for a vet RHD this season and let one of LaCombe/Zellweger play on their off side and Luneau gets games when there's an injury.

 

[tomd]

I wonder if the player that they pick could play next year and get the load management treatment

The strong consensus seems to be that no one other than Celebrini should be anywhere near NHL ice next year.

 

[JAHV]

For a third overall that is a long time to wait. Teams picking this high generally rely on their top of the draft talent having an impact during that timeframe.

Just perusing through the draft, a couple of top 3 picks who took that long:

• Dylan Strome (2015): played 7 games in 17-18 and 21 games in 18-19, but has turned into a solid player (although not for the team that drafted him).
• James Van Riemsdyk (2007): Stepped into the NHL two seasons after his draft and was immediately a solid player
• Jack Johnson (2005): Played 5 games in 06-07, but didn't play a full season until 07-08
• Bobby Ryan, 2nd overall (2005): Actually didn't make an impact until 08-09, which is super long for a #2 OA

The list is not extensive, and I have a feeling the 2005 guys are a little bit delayed because the lockout meant that teams were debuting guys from TWO drafts in the same year.

So you are definitely correct that teams rarely have to wait that long for a #3 pick, but how often do the teams picking in the top 3 immediately needed their player to contribute? The Coyotes finished many points out of the playoffs in 16 and 17. The Flyers definitely could have used a player to help immediately - they made the playoffs both years after JVR was drafted, including the conference finals in 07-08. Had they taken Sam Gagner (6th OA), perhaps they might have fared better - he came into the Oilers lineup immediately and was pretty solid.

Jack Johnson and Bobby Ryan are interesting in that their teams won the next two Cups, so it's hard to argue taking someone else would have made much of a difference. It wouldn't have mattered for the Ducks - there was no player other than Crosby from the 05 draft who made an immediate impact, so it wasn't like they could have taken someone else who would have helped win the conference final in 06. And they won in 2007 anyway.

Had the Hurricanes taken Anze Kopitar, though, perhaps they wouldn't have been a one-hit wonder. They won the Cup in 06 and then proceeded to make the playoffs once in the next twelve seasons, despite having decent teams most years (i.e. they were missing the playoffs by only a handful of points most years).

I guess the question for this year's Ducks - does it matter if their draft pick contributes sooner rather than later? I think they're hoping to take a big step forward this year, but I don't think making the playoffs is realistic, with or without their draftee in the lineup. But it might make a difference the season after.

Sorry, that's a lot of words to say that it's a legitimate question. Is Silayev's value to the Ducks driven down by the fact that he can't play for them for two years?

 

[Boo Boo]

The strong consensus seems to be that no one other than Celebrini should be anywhere near NHL ice next year.

I agree - honestly I’m just interested in if we will see another player get the load management treatment under this regime as a way of confirming that they thought it was a success this year

 

[tomd]

I agree - honestly I’m just interested in if we will see another player get the load management treatment under this regime as a way of confirming that they thought it was a success this year

I think a few players from this draft could do the load management thing in their D+2 season but it probably wouldn't be the best thing for their development. Carlsson was a special case for a special player.

 

[tomd]

FYI for those of you who may not be aware...an agent (forget his name) will be holding a special "combine" for Russian players the weekend before the draft. They can be interviewed by NHL teams, have measurements taken, etc. Demidov and Silayev are supposed to attend.

 

[Gliff]

For a third overall that is a long time to wait. Teams picking this high generally rely on their top of the draft talent having an impact during that timeframe.

Its only 1 year longer then Zegras, McTavish, Mintyukov, Lindholm. I don't think its a big deal. It isn't like he will be in Russia until his D+5.

 

[Static]

Just perusing through the draft, a couple of top 3 picks who took that long:

• Dylan Strome (2015): played 7 games in 17-18 and 21 games in 18-19, but has turned into a solid player (although not for the team that drafted him).
• James Van Riemsdyk (2007): Stepped into the NHL two seasons after his draft and was immediately a solid player
• Jack Johnson (2005): Played 5 games in 06-07, but didn't play a full season until 07-08
• Bobby Ryan, 2nd overall (2005): Actually didn't make an impact until 08-09, which is super long for a #2 OA

The list is not extensive, and I have a feeling the 2005 guys are a little bit delayed because the lockout meant that teams were debuting guys from TWO drafts in the same year.

So you are definitely correct that teams rarely have to wait that long for a #3 pick, but how often do the teams picking in the top 3 immediately needed their player to contribute? The Coyotes finished many points out of the playoffs in 16 and 17. The Flyers definitely could have used a player to help immediately - they made the playoffs both years after JVR was drafted, including the conference finals in 07-08. Had they taken Sam Gagner (6th OA), perhaps they might have fared better - he came into the Oilers lineup immediately and was pretty solid.

Jack Johnson and Bobby Ryan are interesting in that their teams won the next two Cups, so it's hard to argue taking someone else would have made much of a difference. It wouldn't have mattered for the Ducks - there was no player other than Crosby from the 05 draft who made an immediate impact, so it wasn't like they could have taken someone else who would have helped win the conference final in 06. And they won in 2007 anyway.

Had the Hurricanes taken Anze Kopitar, though, perhaps they wouldn't have been a one-hit wonder. They won the Cup in 06 and then proceeded to make the playoffs once in the next twelve seasons, despite having decent teams most years (i.e. they were missing the playoffs by only a handful of points most years).

I guess the question for this year's Ducks - does it matter if their draft pick contributes sooner rather than later? I think they're hoping to take a big step forward this year, but I don't think making the playoffs is realistic, with or without their draftee in the lineup. But it might make a difference the season after.

Sorry, that's a lot of words to say that it's a legitimate question. Is Silayev's value to the Ducks driven down by the fact that he can't play for them for two years?

"Need" is a difficult thing to define. They need to get better, fast, because the longer they are bad the more the goods spoil and get more expensive.

It's worrisome that it is the best case scenario that he will be over in 2026, and how much development time are we going to get with him in the meantime?

It's another layer of risk to take a player that high that we won't see for awhile and might not have much of a hand molding in the meantime. Can we afford to miss on this pick?

 

[Static]

Its only 1 year longer then Zegras, McTavish, Mintyukov, Lindholm. I don't think its a big deal. It isn't like he will be in Russia until his D+5.

For guys drafted at 9-10 that is more expected. Mac played NHL games D+1. For a top three pick the expectation and precedent isn't putting the kid on ice for two full years after the draft and hoping you seem him down the road.

It's not like he will be in the W and you have access to his coaches and can talk to him and develop him.

 

[Gliff]

For guys drafted at 9-10 that is more expected. Mac played NHL games D+1. For a top three pick the expectation and precedent isn't putting the kid on ice for two full years after the draft and hoping you seem him down the road.

It's not like he will be in the W and you have access to his coaches and can talk to him and develop him.

I think this is just something we will disagree on. I understand as a fan why we want to see the new guys asap, but as a team you draft players for who they are in year 5, not if they can contribute in year 1 or 2.
Obviously it would be better if his contract was 1 year like Demidov, but it isn't. I don't think it should be a deal killer or a negative against him.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Just perusing through the draft, a couple of top 3 picks who took that long:

• Dylan Strome (2015): played 7 games in 17-18 and 21 games in 18-19, but has turned into a solid player (although not for the team that drafted him).
• James Van Riemsdyk (2007): Stepped into the NHL two seasons after his draft and was immediately a solid player
• Jack Johnson (2005): Played 5 games in 06-07, but didn't play a full season until 07-08
• Bobby Ryan, 2nd overall (2005): Actually didn't make an impact until 08-09, which is super long for a #2 OA

The list is not extensive, and I have a feeling the 2005 guys are a little bit delayed because the lockout meant that teams were debuting guys from TWO drafts in the same year.

So you are definitely correct that teams rarely have to wait that long for a #3 pick, but how often do the teams picking in the top 3 immediately needed their player to contribute? The Coyotes finished many points out of the playoffs in 16 and 17. The Flyers definitely could have used a player to help immediately - they made the playoffs both years after JVR was drafted, including the conference finals in 07-08. Had they taken Sam Gagner (6th OA), perhaps they might have fared better - he came into the Oilers lineup immediately and was pretty solid.

Jack Johnson and Bobby Ryan are interesting in that their teams won the next two Cups, so it's hard to argue taking someone else would have made much of a difference. It wouldn't have mattered for the Ducks - there was no player other than Crosby from the 05 draft who made an immediate impact, so it wasn't like they could have taken someone else who would have helped win the conference final in 06. And they won in 2007 anyway.

Had the Hurricanes taken Anze Kopitar, though, perhaps they wouldn't have been a one-hit wonder. They won the Cup in 06 and then proceeded to make the playoffs once in the next twelve seasons, despite having decent teams most years (i.e. they were missing the playoffs by only a handful of points most years).

I guess the question for this year's Ducks - does it matter if their draft pick contributes sooner rather than later? I think they're hoping to take a big step forward this year, but I don't think making the playoffs is realistic, with or without their draftee in the lineup. But it might make a difference the season after.

Sorry, that's a lot of words to say that it's a legitimate question. Is Silayev's value to the Ducks driven down by the fact that he can't play for them for two years?

Bobby legitimately wasn’t remotely ready and Jack Johnson probably turns pro after a year in college if the Hurricanes traded him faster.

I really don’t see the overall issue. Two years post draft is fairly normal overall and when you’re already dealing with everyone needing at least a year it isn’t nearly as glaring. There might be several others in that group that also don’t make the jump right away, we just don’t know that with them yet.

 

[Beckett]

Nobody wants to wait 2+ years for their top3 pick, but realistically a player with Silayevs profile isnt going to be ready at 18-19 anyway. He needs time to grow into his body and there's always more to learn on the defensive side.

 

[tomd]

Even Levshuniv probably won’t play in the NHL on a regular basis until his D+3 season. Such is the nature of this year’s draft.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

As has been pointed out, I think the added risk to taking Silayev at 3 is the Ducks having no access at all to his development in at least the next 2 years (maybe more?). Is his ceiling so high that they are comfortable taking that risk? I would guess no, but we'll see.

 

[Static]

The more I read about levshunov the more worried I become. I hope Chicago takes him.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

As has been pointed out, I think the added risk to taking Silayev at 3 is the Ducks having no access at all to his development in at least the next 2 years (maybe more?). Is his ceiling so high that they are comfortable taking that risk? I would guess no, but we'll see.

I wouldn’t say it’s no access, certainly much less than with players from literally everywhere else, but they can still communicate and probably put him on certain health plans. Definitely prefer not to go that route but maybe it’s worth it.

I’m not nearly as knowledgeable about these guys as others and I can understand the trepidation but I’m surprised the other side of the coin isn’t brought up with Silayev as much. At 17 he was not only playing in the KHL but he had a decent sized role and was doing it as a defenseman. To me that’s so absurd. If he’s the pick there’s so much to be excited about IMO.

 

[tomd]

As has been pointed out, I think the added risk to taking Silayev at 3 is the Ducks having no access at all to his development in at least the next 2 years (maybe more?). Is his ceiling so high that they are comfortable taking that risk? I would guess no, but we'll see.

With Igor Larionov as his coach I’m not worried.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

The more I read about levshunov the more worried I become. I hope Chicago takes him.

All along, I just haven't been able to shake the sense that he's more of a Matt Dumba than a stud but if he's our pick, obviously hope to be quite wrong.

 

[tomd]

All along, I just haven't been able to shake the sense that he's more of a Matt Dumba than a stud but if he's our pick, obviously hope to be quite wrong.

Jack Johnson 2.0

 

[Anaheim4ever]

If Silayev was in the OHL he'd probably have torn that league apart.
It'd be like a M1A1Abrams tank taking part in a demolition derby with trucks.

 

[JAHV]

"Need" is a difficult thing to define. They need to get better, fast, because the longer they are bad the more the goods spoil and get more expensive.

It's worrisome that it is the best case scenario that he will be over in 2026, and how much development time are we going to get with him in the meantime?

It's another layer of risk to take a player that high that we won't see for awhile and might not have much of a hand molding in the meantime. Can we afford to miss on this pick?

I agree they need to get better soon because the goods might spoil, but if the goods spoil, they shouldn't be that expensive. Either way, we're in the same boat of continuing to be bad. I think they need to take major steps forward in the next two years, but I do think that's possible without contributions from this year's pick.

My opinion on the answer to the bolded question is yes, we can afford to miss on this pick. There is enough talent currently in the system that if it's developed well and intelligently supplemented with outside talent, this team could be a contender in a few years. And there are several examples of Stanley Cup winning teams whiffing on high draft picks in rebuilding years: Chicago (Cam Barker #3OA), Kings (Thomas Hickey #4OA), Tampa (Drouin #3OA).

Another relevant point is that after Celebrini, there are a TON of question marks. I would be shocked if at least one player between picks 2-10 didn't bust. Of course there will be retrospective analysis if the pick misses, but I think our scouting staff is decent enough that we can give them a pass if they miss one in a tough year.

 

[Static]

I wouldn’t say it’s no access, certainly much less than with players from literally everywhere else, but they can still communicate and probably put him on certain health plans. Definitely prefer not to go that route but maybe it’s worth it.

I’m not nearly as knowledgeable about these guys as others and I can understand the trepidation but I’m surprised the other side of the coin isn’t brought up with Silayev as much. At 17 he was not only playing in the KHL but he had a decent sized role and was doing it as a defenseman. To me that’s so absurd. If he’s the pick there’s so much to be excited about IMO.

The worry with him has nothing to do with what he has done on the ice. It's a scary lack of control with a really important pick for us.