Prospect Info: With the 9th Overall Pick the New York Rangers Select Vitali Kravtsov

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don't care where he plays next year, just convince him to stay state side and train at Prentiss this summer.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

Kravtsov is a forward. I'm speaking about examples that are relevant towards him, not guys that play different positions. But you are right, those two developed well. The defenseman track record is somewhat better, but its still not good. The forward track record, the position Kravtsov plays, is abysmal.

Fair enough I misinterprated it. But is the track record as bad as you say? The only top russian prospect that I can think of who came over to Na and was a bust was Yakupov

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Fair enough I misinterprated it. But is the track record as bad as you say? The only top russian prospect that I can think of who came over to Na and was a bust was Yakupov

Filatov, Yakupov, Sokolov, Abramov, Guryanov, Rubtsov, E. Svechnikov, etc.

Must be an "ov" thing.

And look at that, Kravts"ov".

Keep him in Russia for now. .

 

[PlamsUnlimited]

I think Vitali will be fine in Russia if he stays. Really want this guy to be an offensive machine.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

Filatov, Yakupov, Sokolov, Abramov, Guryanov, Rubtsov, E. Svechnikov, etc.

Must be an "ov" thing.

And look at that, Kravts"ov".

Keep him in Russia for now. .

I mean about half of those guys just finished their last year of junior gotta give them atleast a year or two before declaring them busts

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Seems to me like a lot of correlation/causation confusion. Why would Russian players fare worse in the AHL than players from other countries?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Fair enough I misinterprated it. But is the track record as bad as you say? The only top russian prospect that I can think of who came over to Na and was a bust was Yakupov

I think this whole thing is a bit of a myth that has taken on a life of its own.

Radulov, Kucherov and Anisimov all came over and have done well. I also think its silly to throw a few 20 year olds into the bust category, especially when one of them was a 7th round pick (where the odds are heavily stacked against him to begin with) and the other just turned pro and went almost 2 ppg in the Q.

If we're going to give the Russian development system credit for guys not busting (though the bust rate per player is almost certainly higher for guys who stay overseas) we should give a few of the guys who have busted a pass for being drafted by piss poor organization like Edmonton is and Columbus was when Filatov was drafted (Dallas has turned into a graveyard for prospects too.)

In all honesty, If guys are good enough to make it they'll make it no matter where they play. The guys who have succeeded staying over in Russia didn't succeed because of that, just like the guys who came over early and failed didn't fail for that reason, they failed because they weren't good enough.

The biggest benefit to staying over seas is another year to develop in a comfortable environment where you don't have to adjust to a new city/lifestyle/language. If you believe that a kid is going to be overwhelmed by coming over early then keep him there but if not, and if he wants to come, he should come. At the end of the day, it really makes no difference.

 

[JayMan82]

Seems to me like a lot of correlation/causation confusion. Why would Russian players fare worse in the AHL than players from other countries?

Not that I completely agree with it, but it’s conceivable that the language barrier can affect them (Swedes and Fins especially are well versed in the English language by the time they’re draft eligible). Even Chytil was able to throw some words together after being drafted last year.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Not that I completely agree with it, but it’s conceivable that the language barrier can affect them (Swedes and Fins especially are well versed in the English language by the time they’re draft eligible). Even Chytil was able to throw some words together after being drafted last year.

Why would a Czech have better English skills? And didn't Malkin need a translator for a while? Didn't hurt him.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think this whole thing is a bit of a myth that has taken on a life of its own.

Radulov, Kucherov and Anisimov all came over and have done well. I also think its silly to throw a few 20 year olds into the bust category, especially when one of them was a 7th round pick (where the odds are heavily stacked against him to begin with) and the other just turned pro and went almost 2 ppg in the Q.

If we're going to give the Russian development system credit for guys not busting (though the bust rate per player is almost certainly higher for guys who stay overseas) we should give a few of the guys who have busted a pass for being drafted by piss poor organization like Edmonton is and Columbus was when Filatov was drafted (Dallas has turned into a graveyard for prospects too.)

In all honesty, If guys are good enough to make it they'll make it no matter where they play. The guys who have succeeded staying over in Russia didn't succeed because of that, just like the guys who came over early and failed didn't fail for that reason, they failed because they weren't good enough.

The biggest benefit to staying over seas is another year to develop in a comfortable environment where you don't have to adjust to a new city/lifestyle/language. If you believe that a kid is going to be overwhelmed by coming over early then keep him there but if not, and if he wants to come, he should come. At the end of the day, it really makes no difference.

You are completely missing the point. That 7th rounder was considered a 1OA candidate a year before the draft. He went 7th round because he ruined his career. Its not all about top 10 picks, and whether they turned into great NHL'ers. Some of it started earlier and some of it is evident in the trends for certain players. We don't need to be 10 years removed from their hockey careers to comment. A good example of a trend is Rubtsov. He's another who ruined his career. He was a first round pick, and thoroughly deserved. He moves to Canadian Juniors because the Flyers are complaining about his ice time, and he can't even average 1PPG in Junior hockey at 19/20 on the Mem. Cup Champions. What happened to his game? He's not even looking like he'll reach the NHL now.

3 players in 15 years working out is pretty weak proof. And Kucherov isn't even a great example, considering he didn't move to North America until he was 19. He only played 64 games in NA prior to the NHL, he wasn't there for years. Even if you can scrape together two or three good examples, why would we chance it? The evidence is overwhelming in the favor of one side.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

You are completely missing the point. That 7th rounder was considered a 1OA candidate a year before the draft. He went 7th round because he ruined his career. We can comment on trends. We don't need to be 10 years removed from their hockey careers to comment. A good example of a trend is Rubtsov. He's another who ruined his career. He was a first round pick, and thoroughly deserved. He moves to Canadian Juniors because the Flyers are complaining about his ice time, and he can't even average 1PPG in Junior hockey at 19/20 on the Mem. Cup Champions. What happened to his game? He's not even looking like he'll reach the NHL now.

3 players in 15 years working out is pretty weak proof. And Kucherov isn't even a great example, considering he didn't move to North America until he was 19. He only played 64 games in NA prior to the NHL, he wasn't there for years.

The guy went in the 7th because his game didn't grow. Coming over had little to do with that. I won't go into the rumors with Rubstov, but if they're true they extend beyond the ice.


Regardless, these guys aren't "busting" because they're coming over too soon. What are we going to get on the CHL ruining other players from other countries (including Canada) because their games stagnate? Sometimes guys just peak early or there are a myriad of other reasons why they don't fulfill their promise. There are a ton of guys who stay in Russia who don't make it either.

 

[RalphyDanger]

I said this at the start of the thread, but I love the release on the guys shot. It kind of reminds me of Phil Kessel

Maybe he can reach “Fat” Phil levels

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The guy went in the 7th because his game didn't grow. Coming over had little to do with that. I won't go into the rumors with Rubstov, but if they're true they extend beyond the ice.


Regardless, these guys aren't "busting" because they're coming over too soon. What are we going to get on the CHL ruining other players from other countries (including Canada) because their games stagnate? Sometimes guys just peak early or there are a myriad of other reasons why they don't fulfill their promise. There are a ton of guys who stay in Russia who don't make it either.

So the numbers are just a big coincidence?

Nobody said some Russian players don't bust in Russia. The point is that the percentages drastically favor Russian players developing in the KHL, and we'd be stupid to go against the grain here with a 9th overall pick.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I said this at the start of the thread, but I love the release on the guys shot. It kind of reminds me of Phil Kessel

Maybe he can reach “Fat” Phil levels

I know a bunch of people will disagree with me, but it would be nice if he could pick a corner like Kessel. Maybe he can, but I just still don't think you can consistently beat a goalie 5 hole on the breakaway in the NHL.

 

[JayMan82]

I know a bunch of people will disagree with me, but it would be nice if he could pick a corner like Kessel. Maybe he can, but I just still don't think you can consistently beat a goalie 5 hole on the breakaway in the NHL.

From what I’ve watched, he seems like the type that will put himself in a position in close to score or provide an in tight prime chance for a teammate.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Fair enough I misinterprated it. But is the track record as bad as you say? The only top russian prospect that I can think of who came over to Na and was a bust was Yakupov

Grigorenko definitely was a top prospect. Nichushkin was as well and came too early. Dadonov didn't impress in the NHL like at all back to his early 20s, and look where he's now. Burmistrov is an obvious bust. Rubtsov won't be an NHLer. The same about Guryanov. Zavgorodniy was considered one of the top Russian prospects for this draft just a year ago. Then he moved to NA, and now he's just a 6th round pick (or 7th?).

CHL mostly helps to develop Russian defensive prospects, but when it comes to forwards, the picture doesn't look very bright.

Of course you can say, that Scherbak starts to look like a future NHLer, and Zykov will make Carolina roster this coming season, and Kamenev is doing well. But it's hard to argue, that all Russian superstar forwards came from RSL/KHL (aside from Kucherov, who's a MHL product). Svechnikov is going to be the first, who's chosen the NA path... if, of course, he ever becomes a superstar.

 

[RalphyDanger]

I know a bunch of people will disagree with me, but it would be nice if he could pick a corner like Kessel. Maybe he can, but I just still don't think you can consistently beat a goalie 5 hole on the breakaway in the NHL.

He probably won’t be as much of a sniper as Phil. I just think he has a quick release like Phil. The puck leaves his stick really fast, and it’s harder for goalies to react in time. I think that’s part of what makes Phil real good.

 

[kovazub94]

Chicken and egg argument - did coming to NA ruined a Russian prospect or was he not good enough in the first place - that could go on and on and on...

All prospects are not created equal but if you take a step back and consider at what point in their lives it is better to deal with grown-up issues associated with leaving family and familiarity of their daily lives and instead start living in the environment or among people with mentality that is unlike anything they've dealt before. I'd say I'd rather have prospect postpone this radical change until later and devote 100% of your attention and effort to getting better at hockey first.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Chicken and egg argument - did coming to NA ruined a Russian prospect or was he not good enough in the first place - that could go on and on and on...

All prospects are not created equal but if you take a step back and consider at what point in their lives it is better to deal with grown-up issues associated with leaving family and familiarity of their daily lives and instead start living in the environment or among people with mentality that is unlike anything they've dealt before. I'd say I'd rather have prospect postpone this radical change until later and devote 100% of your attention and effort to getting better at hockey first.

I think the biggest argument against Russians coming over at a young age is that there's a great alternative in Russia with the VHL/KHL structure.

 

[Dijock94]

I like the KHL path for Russian prospects. It seemed to work great for a lot players.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Chicken and egg argument - did coming to NA ruined a Russian prospect or was he not good enough in the first place - that could go on and on and on...

All prospects are not created equal but if you take a step back and consider at what point in their lives it is better to deal with grown-up issues associated with leaving family and familiarity of their daily lives and instead start living in the environment or among people with mentality that is unlike anything they've dealt before. I'd say I'd rather have prospect postpone this radical change until later and devote 100% of your attention and effort to getting better at hockey first.

This is a fair take, and I agree for the most part.

It’s just ridiculous to blame players for busing because they came over too early. Those guys would have busted had they stayed in Russia too.

 

[DekeR]

I'm huge on character and skill set. If your character says that you are willing and dedicated to the craft to get better each and every year and put the EXTRA time in to getting to that point, That's half the battle in my opinion. Along with the character is the skill set manifesting itself to the point that it sets you apart from 90% of the other players at your age and that puts you closer to making it than busting. Than things that cannot be tweeked like size, IQ etc need to be added to the equation for further separation.

 

[kovazub94]

This is a fair take, and I agree for the most part.

It’s just ridiculous to blame players for busing because they came over too early. Those guys would have busted had they stayed in Russia too.

Yeah, but we would never know, right.

 

[offdacrossbar]

stay and play for traktor.

play alot, get stronger, grab some valuable prime time minutes, and then head over here next summer to make the team in 2019 camp.

i dont see a problem with that plan at all.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I know a bunch of people will disagree with me, but it would be nice if he could pick a corner like Kessel. Maybe he can, but I just still don't think you can consistently beat a goalie 5 hole on the breakaway in the NHL.

I love that most of his goals are 5 hole, that shows a ton of confidence in his shot as most players don’t go for that shot and just look for the open corners. He will score A LOT of goals in the NHL if he can pick the 5 hole.