Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Meetings: Because there's no more fitting time to talk baseball than December

[Bad News Benning]

The part where you agreed with me that O'day was a relative bargain, but pointed out that the last year of his deal could suck?

That's true, but that can be said of most ufa deals. At least with his long history, we can be reasonably certain that he'll be a bargain for at worst the first couple of years.

With a guy like Happ, his contract can start sucking in year one, and continue to suck in years 2 and 3. If you give me the choice between the Happ deal and the O'day deal, I take the O'day deal and run.


Edit: One further note. O'day and Happ are the same age (born 3 days apart). Happ relies largely on getting his fastball over, which he throws 66% of the time. O'day relies more on off speed and deception. Which guy do you figure will age better?

0'day wanted to stay in the DC area....so it was either Baltimore or Washington. Oh yeah he hates Bautista and Bautista is one of our clubhouse leaders. That could be unsettling in the clubhouse given their history. Not sure why you think we had a shot at him.

 

[Discoverer]

All I can say is after getting home and reading 150 tweets, nothing with blue jays in them. All the top teams are making moves to "improve" Jay's stand pat. Very disappointed fan.

Gonna be a long winter etc

What moves of any significance have the other 2015 AL playoff teams made?

 

[Damisoph]

All I can say is after getting home and reading 150 tweets, nothing with blue jays in them. All the top teams are making moves to "improve" Jay's stand pat. Very disappointed fan.

Gonna be a long winter etc

I like how you put improve in quotes.

 

[Kurtz]

Other teams need to make bigger moves because their teams aren't as good as the Jays.

We still need to always be looking to make the team better, no doubt, but it will likely be some smaller deals that makes it happen and then potentially more moves at the deadline.

I would like us to have taken care of some of the smaller moves already though. Never too early to address the bullpen.

It's true. We had almost everything in place. All we needed was a solid #2 starter (Iwakuma, Chen, Kazmir), and 2 good bullpen arms to replace Lowe and one of Sanchez/Osuna (whichever one the org felt made more sense to try as starter).

We've done none of that. Instead, we've done some highly questionable things, like paying Smoak twice his predicted arbitration value, giving up 4 years of cheap Liam Hendricks for 1 year of less cheap swingman Chavez, and giving relatively big money to a #4 or 5 guy in Happ.

We didn't need to do a lot, but what we did do so far sucks.

 

[Cor]

Seems like we are getting close to adding a bullpen arm.

 

[Cor]

Also, seems the A's are looking at dealing Lawrie.

How in the hell did AA pull that off.

 

[TF97]

First time I've listened to Bob in a while and I am already sick of his Shapiro whining

 

[Canada4Gold]

Also, seems the A's are looking at dealing Lawrie.

How in the hell did AA pull that off.

they still have Valencia to play 3rd, how the hell did the A's pull that off

 

[Dough72]

All I can say is after getting home and reading 150 tweets, nothing with blue jays in them. All the top teams are making moves to "improve" Jay's stand pat. Very disappointed fan.

Gonna be a long winter etc

me too

wouldn't shareholders also be disappointed? I don't have a clue about financial stuff, but I thought people buy shares in companies they expect to increase in value

can't imagine many sports teams, maybe in history, had a more golden opportunity to increase their stock

 

[Cor]

they still have Valencia to play 3rd, how the hell did the A's pull that off

We would have beat the Royals if we had Valencia

 

[Kurtz]

See, this is why conversations can be frustrating on here sometimes. I didn't even say the last year of his deal could suck, and I didn't even imply it. You asked a question:



And I attempted to answer it:



There's no suggestion that the last years are going to suck, I'm just saying that the additional year or two is what keeps the annual value lower.

I disagree with you on the Happ deal as it compares to this one, and I disagree on the quality of the Orioles' roster, but I'm pretty sure we completely agree on the O'Day deal itself. There's no disagreement whatsoever on that specific contract, so it just seems like you're looking to argue about it when you say that I said things that I didn't even remotely imply.

I don't think there's an argument here beyond semantics. I interpreted your sentence by continuing your logic towards a natural conclusion (If you think O'days deal is a bargain but are explicitly pointing out the 4th year, you're suggesting a certain risk in that fourth year...which would be him possibly sucking).

If you didn't think O'day's fourth year is a possible issue, why even mention it?

Anyway, we both agree that he's a bargain. We both know that the extra year keeps his annual value lower (as does the extra year for any ufa who ever signs after 30). Not sure there's anything to debate here.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Longshot]

First time I've listened to Bob in a while and I am already sick of his Shapiro whining

I'm getting a little tired of it too. I understand his concerns about Shapiro's resume, but it's kind of silly to ignore basic business. Many companies (not just sports teams) will hire executives from smaller markets/companies. The suggestion that Shapiro isn't worthy enough to be in a market like Toronto because he worked in a smaller market for years is silly.

I am enjoying seeing Bob and Dan Shulman together. Takes me back to 91-94 when they were the main voices on the Fan. If only I was in high school/college again...

 

[Kurtz]

We would have beat the Royals if we had Valencia

You jest, but that series was pretty close. Smoak had 2 at bats against KC, and did nothing with them other than stranding 4 runners. If Valencia is in there instead of Smoak, perhaps he does do something.

But even ignoring the playoffs, who would you rather have as a utility man/pinch-hitter next year, Valencia at about $1 mil or Smoak at $4 mil?

And that's ignoring the fact that Valencia could have ALSO been a good backup option at 3B for us. Because at the moment, our backup 3B is....Kawasaki?

 

[Bad News Benning]

if Boras declines to mention if a team is interested it means that team isn't interested.

 

[Longshot]

All I can say is after getting home and reading 150 tweets, nothing with blue jays in them. All the top teams are making moves to "improve" Jay's stand pat. Very disappointed fan.

Gonna be a long winter etc

When I see posts like this I just shake my head.

What would you like them to be doing?

Most of the roster is set. They have a couple of holes they need to fill in the bullpen. That's about it.

Are you not able to do any comparative analysis?

Yes, the Yankees just made a "big move" to get Starlin Castro. They made that move because they had a hole they had to fill. The Jays don't have the same holes. With Tulo, Travis and Goins on the roster they don't have to make a trade like that.

Take a step back everybody. Look at the Jays roster. Other than the openings in the bullpen, the Jays are deep at every position (except catcher). They have big stars throughout the lineup.

 

[Bad News Benning]

You jest, but that series was pretty close. Smoak had 2 at bats against KC, and did nothing with them other than stranding 4 runners. If Valencia is in there instead of Smoak, perhaps he does do something.

But even ignoring the playoffs, who would you rather have as a platoon lefty 1B/lefty pinch-hitter next year, Valencia at about $1 mil or Smoak at $4 mil?

And that's ignoring the fact that Valencia could have been a good backup option at 3B for us. Because at the moment, our backup 3B is....Kawasaki?

Don't need no stinking back up. JD is Thor. He is a gamer.

Our current backup is Andy Burns. He could be a Valencia type player as he mashes LHP and can play multiple positions.

 

[Longshot]

Also, seems the A's are looking at dealing Lawrie.

How in the hell did AA pull that off.

Can anybody explain what the A's are doing?

Is this a full rebuild? A re-tool? I really don't get it.

 

[The Nemesis]

me too

wouldn't shareholders also be disappointed? I don't have a clue about financial stuff, but I thought people buy shares in companies they expect to increase in value

can't imagine many sports teams, maybe in history, had a more golden opportunity to increase their stock

People don't own shares in the Blue Jays. they own shares in Rogers as a whole. The Blue Jays are only a small portion of the company, one which will almost certainly have a practically negligible impact on the company stock. They may care if the Jays were funnelling massive funds out of the company's coffers to pay for a more expensive roster (which may or may not in turn lead to a return on that investment). But nobody buying Rogers stock gives two ****s if the Jays are winning or not. They care that Rogers is dominating the telecom market and making boatloads of cash on cellphones and cable and internet services and the multitude of other corporate interests (like Sportsnet and its NHL media platform).

 

[Kurtz]

Can anybody explain what the A's are doing?

Is this a full rebuild? A re-tool? I really don't get it.

You'll find out in Moneyball II.

 

[Kurtz]

Don't need no stinking back up. JD is Thor. He is a gamer.

Our current backup is Andy Burns. He could be a Valencia type player as he mashes LHP and can play multiple positions.

Yikes.

 

[Longshot]

People don't own shares in the Blue Jays. they own shares in Rogers as a whole. The Blue Jays are only a small portion of the company, one which will almost certainly have a practically negligible impact on the company stock. They may care if the Jays were funnelling massive funds out of the company's coffers to pay for a more expensive roster (which may or may not in turn lead to a return on that investment). But nobody buying Rogers stock gives two ****s if the Jays are winning or not. They care that Rogers is dominating the telecom market and making boatloads of cash on cellphones and cable and internet services and the multitude of other corporate interests (like Sportsnet and its NHL media platform).

That's fairly one dimensional way to look at the Jays value to Rogers as a whole.

When talking about where the Jays fit in in the Rogers empire, a lot of people neglect to mention the overall equity value the franchise/stadium adds to the Rogers bottom line.

Way back when, Rogers bought the Jays for what: less than $200 million? They bought the Skydome for about $25 million. Those assets collectively are now worth around $1 billion. That's a significant gain on an investment.

Sure there are year-to-year financial costs, but there is also a significant equity component that is often forgotten.

 

[TF97]

Can anybody explain what the A's are doing?

Is this a full rebuild? A re-tool? I really don't get it.

It's a re-tool. Last season their bullpen led to them having a brutal record in one run games and so far that has been addressed. However, I doubt that Billy Boy is done.

SP: Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Rich Hill, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt

BP: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, John Axford, Liam Hendriks, Mark Rzepczynski, Ryan Dull, Felix Doubront

Lineup:

1. CF Billy Burns (S)
2. LF Mark Canha (R)
3. RF Josh Reddick (L)
4. 3B Danny Valencia (R)
5. C Stephen Vogt (L)
6. 2B Jed Lowrie (S)
7. 1B Yonder Alonso (L)
8. DH Billy Butler (R)
9. SS Marcus Semien (R)

Now, their lineup against LHP will likely include guys like Phegley and Smolinski.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Yikes.

JD has played 158 games in each of the last 3 seasons. dear god who is going to play those other 4 games?

 

[Cor]

#BlueJays Shapiro says he's getting several calls on availability of Drew Hutchison.