Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Meetings: Because there's no more fitting time to talk baseball than December

[hockeywiz542]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/ml...ct-with-blue-jays-before-signing-with-tigers/

Mark Lowe adored his experience with the Toronto Blue Jays, but couldn’t turn down the opportunity he was offered from the Detroit Tigers as a free agent.

The 32-year-old relief pitcher signed a two-year deal worth $11 million this week to become the primary eighth-inning setup man out of the bullpen for veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez.

“We had some contact with the Blue Jays,” Lowe said Wednesday on The Jeff Blair Show on Sportsnet 590 The Fan. “It wasn’t anywhere in the same range as the other teams that talked to me. You want to go to the team that wants you the most.”

Lowe established himself as a valued commodity on the free agent market after a strong 2015 campaign with the Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, going 1-3 with a 1.96 ERA, 61 strikeouts, 12 walks, and just four home runs allowed over 55 innings.

“I knew that (the Blue Jays) were going to be good,” Lowe told co-hosts Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt. “(However) I didn’t know the clubhouse and the city were going to be on fire. It was probably the most enjoyable time I’ve ever had in my career.”

Relief pitcher Mark Lowe, now a member of the Detroit Tigers, joins The Jeff Blair Show to reflect on his time with the Toronto Blue Jays, if the Jays made an attempt to re-sign him, why he chose to go to Michigan, the playoff experience he had with the Texas Rangers vs. the Jays, how he plans to spend his off-season after an extended season, what he thinks it will be like his first game back at the Rogers Centre, and how he thinks his former club is positioned to go forward.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_dema...r-and-Stephen-Brunt-jb-20151209-Interview.mp3

 

[Edo]

Revere isn't underated. He's rated how he should be. Good average guy that can steal some bases but limited elsewhere.

Pompey will probably never hit for as high an average as Revere but there are good reasons why people feel Pompey will be better as soon as next year.

He's an elite average guy. 8th highest cumulative average since 2010. And he's getting compared to a basic nobody at the moment in Pompey.

It's ridiculous.

 

[hockeywiz542]

ESPN's Keith Law, host of Baseball Tonight, joins Game Day with Matt Cauz & Gareth Wheeler to discuss the Blue Jays offseason so far, and the discussions on contract extensions for Encarnacion and Bautista.

http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/gd_keithlaw_dec8th_2015.mp3

New Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Jesse Chavez talks to Andrew Walker about his reaction to be being re-acquired by the Toronto, how he evolved his game since his first tour with the Jays, if he thinks he’s primed for a breakout season, the reaction in the Oakland Athletics club house last season when Josh Donaldson was traded from the team to the Canadian club, what he thinks his role with the club will be, and the mindset of being on the mound with an offense as powerful as the Jays.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Jesse-Chavez-with-Andrew-Walker-bw-20151208-Interview.mp3

FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi joins Jeff Blair & Stephen Brunt from the MLB Winter Meetings to discuss the decision by Toronto Blue Jays’ president Mark Shapiro to not pursue David Price, the shape Shapiro and new Jays GM Ross Atkins left the Cleveland Indians in, the depth of the Jays farm system, and on Jose Bautista & Edwin Encarnacion being a season away from free agency.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_dema...r-and-Stephen-Brunt-jb-20151209-Interview.mp3

TSN Blue Jays analyst, Scott MacArthur joins the show to talk about the Jays payroll, and the chances the team can resign both Encarnacion and Bautista. He touches on explaining the payroll to fans, the profit from last years playoff run.

http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/gd_macarthur_dec9.mp3

 

[The Nemesis]

He's an elite average guy. 8th highest cumulative average since 2010. And he's getting compared to a basic nobody at the moment in Pompey.

It's ridiculous.

Batting average isn't nearly as important as people tend to treat it. It's far less useful than on-base % at measuring essentially the same thing (especially for a guy who hits nothing but singles). I'll bet if you took the same time frame and sorted by OBP instead revere would be much, much lower ranked.

 

[Keeping it Blue]

But seriously. I don't really read any baseball forums other than this thread and fangraphs is the only other baseball site I tend to go to. We know how advanced stats are looked upon in the Hockey main board, I just thought that things were far more accepted in baseball, but the amount of people I see only tossing out ERA/RBI/Avg and ignoring informed posters about advanced stats in this thread seems crazy.

 

[Stats01]

Any update on what the Jays are/were close on?

 

[KuleminFan41]

Batting average isn't nearly as important as people tend to treat it. It's far less useful than on-base % at measuring essentially the same thing (especially for a guy who hits nothing but singles). I'll bet if you took the same time frame and sorted by OBP instead revere would be much, much lower ranked.

Taking a quick look over on Fangraphs he's 96th in OBP since joining the league but he also has at least 100 less games played and roughly 500 plate appearances the those above him. It could be worse, but it also could get better. The thing that hurts him the most is not getting enough walks to raise his OBP even higher. Either way, he's still a pretty young player, he is only 27 and has been in the majors since he was 22. Hopefully he keeps improving his game

 

[Discoverer]

Assuming they don't add any impact players beyond bringing back Davis and Chen, you don't see them as a playoff contender?

Basically, but I guess that's not entirely accurate. I see the re-additions of Davis and Chen making them roughly a .500 team. If a team looks like a .500 team, they could contend for a Wild Card spot if a lot of things go right.

To me, signing those two brings them from "awful" to "mediocre".

 

[Deebo]

Batting average isn't nearly as important as people tend to treat it. It's far less useful than on-base % at measuring essentially the same thing (especially for a guy who hits nothing but singles). I'll bet if you took the same time frame and sorted by OBP instead revere would be much, much lower ranked.

From fangraphs Cumulative 2010-2015, among qualified batters, (I'm not sure what the PA requirements are for multiple years):

T-16th in Average (.295)
T-163rd in OBP (.328)

 

[The Nemesis]

Adam Lind to the Mariners for a trio of prospect pitchers (I didn't see any of them on the MLB Pipeline top 30 for Seattle)

There goes all his power. Seattle is where guys like him go to see their value die.

Taking a quick look over on Fangraphs he's 96th in OBP since joining the league but he also has at least 100 less games played and roughly 500 plate appearances the those above him. It could be worse, but it also could get better. The thing that hurts him the most is not getting enough walks to raise his OBP even higher. Either way, he's still a pretty young player, he is only 27 and has been in the majors since he was 22. Hopefully he keeps improving his game

At 27 and 5 years into his career, there's probably not a ton of growth left, especially in something like plate discipline/walk rates which are fairly innate.

Also an averaged/non-counting stat isn't hurt as much by the lower # of PAs/Games given the totals we're talking about. It's not like he's far enough behind to fall victim to small sample issues.

From fangraphs Cumulative 2010-2015, among qualified batters, (I'm not sure what the PA requirements are for multiple years):

T-16th in Average (.295)
T-163rd in OBP (.328)

I would guess the requirements are the same for any given season, 3.1 ABs per game average.

I ran a similar report on Fangraphs, but to avoid any oddity with qualifying, I limited that 2010-15 span to 2500 PAs total, which is the highest # that will still include Revere.

Of 144 batters that meet that criteria, Revere is 17th in average, sandwiched between Michael Young and Melky Cabrera. He's 96th in OBP, below Adam Lind and above Brian McCann. Just while I'm at it, he's also 142nd in SLG, ahead of only Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.

He also has the 2nd smallest difference between his OBP and BA, ahead of only Omar Infante.

 

[Eyedea]

Any update on what the Jays are/were close on?

Ben Nicholson-Smith said the Jays have been in touch with Joe Blanton, Yusmeiro Petit, and Craig Stammen. Lowe mentioned the Jays had talks with him but they didn't offer nearly as much as the Tigers to consider it.

Taking a quick look over on Fangraphs he's 96th in OBP since joining the league but he also has at least 100 less games played and roughly 500 plate appearances the those above him. It could be worse, but it also could get better. The thing that hurts him the most is not getting enough walks to raise his OBP even higher. Either way, he's still a pretty young player, he is only 27 and has been in the majors since he was 22. Hopefully he keeps improving his game

Since 2011, among players with 2500> plate appearances Revere ranks 66/88 in OBP. His BB% (4.4%) ranks 85/88. He's basically Daniel Murphy except Murphy's power is greater by like 250% over that span.

He was better this year offensively, specifically since joining the Jays, but his wRC+ still ranked 64/81 out of players with 600+ plate appearances. Many of the players below him being negative net players or defensive stalwarts. Pillar was essentially the same as Revere in terms of baserunning, a little less on the offensive side of the ball, but completely dwarfed Revere's value on the defensive end. If Revere was an elite defensive player and had some type of power in the mould of say, Ender Inciarte, then I would totally be fine with his below average offensive ability. Him being 27 (turning 28 in May) doesn't really help his case considering he has shown minimal improvements over 2660 plate appearances. Having 1 and 1/2 tools (baserunning + contact component of hitting) doesn't really make him a valuable player.

 

[TF97]

Giles is nasty. I'd love to acquire him but the price is probably insane.

 

[hockeywiz542]

nashville, tenn. -- the busy seattle mariners have acquired first baseman adam lind from the milwaukee brewers for three teenage minor-league pitchers.

The brewers are getting right-handers daniel missaki, carlos herrera and freddy peralta in the trade announced wednesday at the winter meetings

milwaukee picked up the $8 million option for 2016 on lind's contract last month, but did so with the expectation that general manager david stearns would trade him as part of the organization's rebuilding process.

The mariners have been looking for a first baseman because general manager jerry dipoto already dealt mark trumbo and logan morrison.

 

[Kurtz]

The thing is, I would classify all of Toronto/Baltimore/New York/Cleveland/Detroit/Minnesota/Los Angeles/Seattle/Texas/Houston as teams in the 78-87 win range at various levels (Boston/Kansas City are the true contenders to me at this point and I'm not a fan of Chicago/Oakland/Tampa). So I wouldn't exactly be writing off Baltimore at any rate.

I think that's sensible. I'd have dismissed Baltimore as a wins pinata going into the off-season, but if they do end up retaining Davis and Chen, they are most likely to return to a competitive squad...which hurts the Jays/Yankees/Sox, since that's one team those 3 won't be able to beat up on.

That's why my "Good for Baltimore" comment, which sparked such sudden debate because some joker didn't see the bigger picture, remains valid.

 

[Mitchy]

Good trade for the Mets imo. I can see the upside for the Pirates too, though.

 

[Shimso]

They're increasing payroll to bring back a team that's only slightly worse than the .500 team they fielded last year. But that's ok, at least they can fill those holes with all those prospects from the worst farm system in the league!

But seriously, the O'Day contract doesn't look that bad to me. It's not a huge overpay like some of the reliever deals (trades and signings) that we've seen so far. The big thing that separates this deal from the other bigger reliever deals is the fourth year. That's really rare for a free agent reliever.

I'm not saying its a bad deal for the Orioles, I'm saying I don't like the O's and so I'd never say good for them

 

[Discoverer]

I think that's sensible. I'd have dismissed Baltimore as a wins pinata going into the off-season, but if they do end up retaining Davis and Chen, they are most likely to return to a competitive squad...which hurts the Jays/Yankees/Sox, since that's one team those 3 won't be able to beat up on.

That's why my "Good for Baltimore" comment, which sparked such sudden debate because some joker didn't see the bigger picture, remains valid.

I still get the impression you completely missed my analysis of the actual O'Day contract.

 

[TF97]

He's an elite average guy. 8th highest cumulative average since 2010. And he's getting compared to a basic nobody at the moment in Pompey.

It's ridiculous.

Revere may put up a great batting average. However, batting average is not a very important statistic. It doesn't tell the whole picture. The league average wRC+ is 100, not once has Revere had a season in which he put up a wRC+ of more than 100. He also has a piss poor arm and takes bad routes to fly balls (he makes up for it with his speed). Then you throw in the near 7M that he is projected to earn in arbitration and it seems like a no brainer that the Blue Jays would be better off rolling with some combination of Pompey-Saunders in LF. They would be much cheaper and should be able to provide more than Revere does... both offensively and defensively.

 

[Mitchy]

He has the definition of an empty batting average.

 

[Kurtz]

I'm not saying its a bad deal for the Orioles, I'm saying I don't like the O's and so I'd never say good for them

Whoops. Fair enough, although it was a little ambiguous. Discoverer and I both saw it as a shot at Baltimore, which didn't make sense to me but apparently did to him.

 

[trellaine201]

All I can say is after getting home and reading 150 tweets, nothing with blue jays in them. All the top teams are making moves to "improve" Jay's stand pat. Very disappointed fan.

Gonna be a long winter etc

 

[Kurtz]

I still get the impression you completely missed my analysis of the actual O'Day contract.

The part where you agreed with me that O'day was a relative bargain, but pointed out that the last year of his deal could suck?

That's true, but that can be said of most ufa deals. At least with his long history, we can be reasonably certain that he'll be a bargain for at worst the first couple of years.

With a guy like Happ, his contract can start sucking in year one, and continue to suck in years 2 and 3. If you give me the choice between the Happ deal and the O'day deal, I take the O'day deal and run.


Edit: One further note. O'day and Happ are the same age (born 3 days apart). Happ relies largely on getting his fastball over, which he throws 66% of the time. O'day relies more on off speed and deception. Which guy do you figure will age better?

 

[SDig14]

Other teams need to make bigger moves because their teams aren't as good as the Jays.

We still need to always be looking to make the team better, no doubt, but it will likely be some smaller deals that makes it happen and then potentially more moves at the deadline.

I would like us to have taken care of some of the smaller moves already though. Never too early to address the bullpen.

 

[Bad News Benning]

All I can say is after getting home and reading 150 tweets, nothing with blue jays in them. All the top teams are making moves to "improve" Jay's stand pat. Very disappointed fan.

Gonna be a long winter etc

Jays are never going to be big spenders at the winter meetings....and most of these contracts signed the past three days will look stupid soon enough. The most the jays have ever spent on a free agent is Russell martin. If you're looking for them to make a splash it will usually be through a trade out of nowhere. I'm sure they have irons in the fire that could heat up.

I'm not really sure what you're expecting to happen. None of the playoff teams from the AL have really done much so far. The teams that are making moves are the ones who sucked last year. These teams are usually run by GM's looking to make their mark or GM's that know they could be on the firing line soon.

I know you want something to talk about...but making no moves is better than making one with long term ramifications. You know who the winners of NHL free agent frenzy are? the teams that don't get tied down by stupid contracts to heavily overrated free agents.

 

[Discoverer]

The part where you agreed with me that O'day was a relative bargain, but pointed out that the last year of his deal could suck?

That's true, but that can be said of most ufa deals. At least with his long history, we can be reasonably certain that he'll be a bargain for at worst the first couple of years.

See, this is why conversations can be frustrating on here sometimes. I didn't even say the last year of his deal could suck, and I didn't even imply it. You asked a question:

Also, how does O'Day get below $8 mil per, when Lowe gets $6.5 and Madsen gets $7?

And I attempted to answer it:

The big thing that separates this deal from the other bigger reliever deals is the fourth year. That's really rare for a free agent reliever.

There's no suggestion that the last years are going to suck, I'm just saying that the additional year or two is what keeps the annual value lower.

I disagree with you on the Happ deal as it compares to this one, and I disagree on the quality of the Orioles' roster, but I'm pretty sure we completely agree on the O'Day deal itself. There's no disagreement whatsoever on that specific contract, so it just seems like you're looking to argue about it when you say that I said things that I didn't even remotely imply.