Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Meetings: Because there's no more fitting time to talk baseball than December

[Mitchy]

This might just work out for the DBacks. They scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year. Adding Greinke and Miller to go with Bradley, Corbin, Anderson, Godley, and Delgado. They will be an interesting team to watch this year.

I'm a big fan of Shelby, but it's still too much to give to a number ~3 starter.

 

[JS19]

This might just work out for the DBacks. They scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year. Adding Greinke and Miller to go with Bradley, Corbin, Anderson, Godley, and Delgado. They will be an interesting team to watch this year.

Not sure it does. I mean team-wise they're set, but if they were going to give up that much for a starting pitcher, why not go the full mile and go for Jose Fernandez? Shelby Miller was a massive overpayment in comparison.

Braves did well going from Heyward to a nice pile of prospects.

 

[TheOtherSide]

Johan Santana first attempted to come back from the shoulder surgery that derailed his career in 2014, a torn Achilles tendon thwarted his efforts to join the Baltimore Orioles. The next year, a toe infection denied him the chance to pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Johan Santana is not ready to give up just yet. Once considered among the game's top starters, Santana - wielding a "fresh arm," as his agent put it - wants to give it another chance.

I wonder if he would be interested in another MLC with the Jays.

It wouldn't hurt to try. It probably isn't a bad thing to have someone like thay as a mentor in the minors anyway.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Gabe Noyalis

http://www.sungazette.com/page/cont...-set-to-sign-Blue-Jays-contract.html?nav=5017

The last time Loyalsock grad Gabe Noyalis threw a pitch in a competitive game, it was the spring of 2012 when he was a sophomore at Misericordia University. But after a fairly good sophomore campaign as part of a team ranked nearly tenth in the nation in Division III, Noyalis decided to stop playing and step away from the game.

He didn't think three years later, he'd be signing with a Major League Baseball team and continuing his career. But on Tuesday his career in baseball again resumed as Noyalis announced that he was signing with the Toronto Blue Jays organization, last year's American League East champions.

Noyalis is currently waiting for the contract to get sent to him since the MLB Winter Meetings are currently going on in Nashville, Tennessee.

"I'm just thrilled. They just won the AL East this past year, so not an up-and-coming organization per se, but definitely one on rise in terms of push for playoffs, so (I'm) very exciting I get to join the organization at this time. I'm just happy to play baseball no matter who it's with. Being with Blue Jays is icing on top of cake," Noyalis said. "After not playing for a few years thinking baseball was over for me, (so) getting opportunity to play professionally is unbelievable. Hasn't even sunk in fully yet."

Noyalis said that he will be headed down to Dunedin, Florida, in mid-February, reporting as soon as camp opens. It's not yet known what minor-league team affiliated with Toronto he will be playing for.

 

[hockeywiz542]

both also want to remain in toronto, but after each signed club-friendly extensions the last time around – encarnacion is making $10 million in 2016, bautista $14 million – they’ll be understandably be looking to make up some ground this time.

Whether that fits into the blue jays’ long-term plans is an interesting question.

they have $67.5 million in commitments to four players in 2017, $53 million guaranteed to three players in 2018, and $40 million guaranteed to two players in 2019. Josh donaldson will still be arbitration-eligible in ’17 and ’18, when his salaries could run in the $18 million and $25 million range if he performs at his current pace, which also factors things.

The pivotal evaluation the blue jays must make is whether encarnacion and bautista can perform to their contracts as they age, lest they tie their hands with an expensive roster in decline the way the philadelphia phillies did.

They may feel the right call is to ride out their production through the 2016 season, take the compensatory draft picks if they walk away and then reallocate their money elsewhere.

given what both players have meant to the franchise – bautista’s done enough already to merit a spot on the club’s level of excellence, encarnacion is getting close if he’s not there yet – that would be an unfortunate end to their time in toronto.

"we’re always thinking about today and tomorrow," atkins said of balancing short and long term needs. "one eye on how we’re going compete in 2016 with one eye on how we’re going to be the best organization we can be."

while kicking that around, the blue jays also spent tuesday trying to find more pitching and looking at backup middle infielders.

A couple of possibilities for the latter are darwin barney, who was acquired in september when troy tulowitzki suffered a cracked shoulder blade, and sean rodriguez. Both have interest from other clubs as well.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I figure the lopsided awfulness of the Miller trade to the Diamondbacks after-shook the internet so much that it broke HF earlier.

Yikes.

Dave Stewart is about that life.

 

[BlueForever]

Gabe Noyalis

http://www.sungazette.com/page/cont...-set-to-sign-Blue-Jays-contract.html?nav=5017

Is this guy any good?

Was he a top prospect that stopped playing ball? What is the outlook on this guy?

 

[theaub]

http://athletics.misericordia.edu/roster.aspx?rp_id=6432

First team ALL-FREEDOM

 

[Canada4Gold]

what is Arizona doing?

Meanwhile Braves turned a year of Heyward into a year of Miller, a controllable outfielder, the #1 pick in the last draft and another top 100 prospect.

Can I have that for Bautista? What about EE? Please? Please?

at least Arizona would be pretty good next year but hot damn that's way too crazy of a price, if you were going to be that stupid might as well add a couple pieces and got Fernandez.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Is this guy any good?

Was he a top prospect that stopped playing ball? What is the outlook on this guy?

He was probably not a good prospect if he was playing division III baseball.

 

[Shimso]

That Zobrist signing is the steal of the off season so far. Yeah, he's aging, but he was an under-the radar superstar for 6 straight years before last year. And he was pretty good last year too. $14 mil? Bargain. And unlike the other bargain of the off-season, Iwakuma, he doesn't even cost a pick.

I'm just glad he's out of the AL. Jays killer. I was sure the Yankees would swoop in and grab him in the end.

Also, how does O'Day get below $8 mil per, when Lowe gets $6.5 and Madsen gets $7? Another steal there. I don't get why the Dodgers didn't just sign him when the whole Chapman thing went awry.

Oh well, good for the Orioles. They won't be as ravaged by free agency as originally thought. Could even bring back Chen.

 

[Discoverer]

They're increasing payroll to bring back a team that's only slightly worse than the .500 team they fielded last year. But that's ok, at least they can fill those holes with all those prospects from the worst farm system in the league!

But seriously, the O'Day contract doesn't look that bad to me. It's not a huge overpay like some of the reliever deals (trades and signings) that we've seen so far. The big thing that separates this deal from the other bigger reliever deals is the fourth year. That's really rare for a free agent reliever.

 

[TootooTrain]

Atkins hinted at being close on something last night and potentially this morning. I wonder if they were in on Axford.

 

[Kurtz]

They're increasing payroll to bring back a team that's only slightly worse than the .500 team they fielded last year.

Well, it also closely resembles the team that went to the ALCS in 2014. It seems that the memory of people on this board simply fluctuates to suit their arguments.

Not to mention that at that deal, even if things don't work out for Baltimore, they'll most likely be able to move O'day for a handsome return.

 

[HockeyAndWings]

Pitching was an area of weakness for the Blue Jays last season, but right now, it's become an area of greater weakness.

The Blue Jays need more quality in their starting pitching, as well as, more quality and depth in their bullpen.

 

[Schenn]

@susanslusser:

2015-12-09 16:40:59 UTC

#Athletics have signed reliever John Axford pending a physical.

Another depth pitcher gone.

 

[TootooTrain]

Well, it also closely resembles the team that went to the ALCS in 2014. It seems that the memory of people on this board simply fluctuates to suit their arguments.

Not to mention that at that deal, even if things don't work out for Baltimore, they'll most likely be able to move O'day for a handsome return.

That team had a horseshoe up their you know what. The difference between their record in 1 run games and Kansas City's is that KC has the contact approach to make it consistent. Baltimore that year struck out at a good clip and almost never walked. Not a good combination. Especially in those tight games. Credit to them for getting as far as they did, but I think everyone knew it wasn't sustainable. Still a good team in the hunt, but not the playoff caliber team they were banking on.

 

[p.l.f.]

Lawrie to Chisox would be interesting

 

[Kurtz]

That team had a horseshoe up their you know what. The difference between their record in 1 run games and Kansas City's is that KC has the contact approach to make it consistent. Baltimore that year struck out at a good clip and almost never walked. Not a good combination. Especially in those tight games. Credit to them for getting as far as they did, but I think everyone knew it wasn't sustainable. Still a good team in the hunt, but not the playoff caliber team they were banking on.

Baltimore had the 4th best run differential in the Majors in 2014. It's not accurate to attribute their success to luck.

 

[Discoverer]

Well, it also closely resembles the team that went to the ALCS in 2014. It seems that the memory of people on this board simply fluctuates to suit their arguments.

With O'Day in the fold, they're looking at a payroll increase of approximately $10 million over last year. And they're still minus Chris Davis's 5.6 and Wei-Yin Chen's 2.8 fWAR from last year. And from 2014, they're down those two (though Davis was admittedly horrible that year) plus Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce and Nick Markakis and David Lough.

I don't have any trouble remembering how recently they were successful, I just have trouble seeing how that has any impact on what we should expect in 2016 given that the majority of their key contributors from that run are gone.

But maybe they'll bump payroll up by another $40 million to bring back Davis and Chen to try to re-capture the 2015 magic that got them 81 wins.

Not to mention that at that deal, even if things don't work out for Baltimore, they'll most likely be able to move O'day for a handsome return.

I specifically mentioned that the O'Day deal looks fine in the post you were responding to.

 

[TootooTrain]

Baltimore had the 4th best run differential in the Majors in 2014. It's not accurate to attribute their success to luck.

Indeed. Unsustainable is more accurate. Again it was still a decent team, but their offensive approach is subject to peaks and valleys. More so than your average team.

 

[Kurtz]

With O'Day in the fold, they're looking at a payroll increase of approximately $10 million over last year. And they're still minus Chris Davis's 5.6 and Wei-Yin Chen's 2.8 fWAR from last year. And from 2014, they're down those two (though Davis was admittedly horrible that year) plus Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce and Nick Markakis and David Lough.

I don't have any trouble remembering how recently they were successful, I just have trouble seeing how that has any impact on what we should expect in 2016 given that the majority of their key contributors from that run are gone.

Look into how many games Machado and Wieters missed in 2014. You've already mentioned Davis' performance when he wasn't allowed to take drugs.

Right now they have a $150 mil offer on the table for Davis, which will probably get it done. All's quiet on the Chen front, but having brought back Wieters, O'Day and likely Davis, there's a good chance Chen is back too.

Orioles had a run differential of +20 last year. +112 the year before. If we average out the two, that's a run differential of +66, which was good enough to get the Yankees into the playoffs in 2015.


The Orioles probably aren't quite as good as in 2014, but if they bring their crew back, they won't be as bad as in 2015. They'll be right there in the hunt with the Jays, Yankees and Red Sox. To dismiss them so flippantly is folly.

 

[Discoverer]

Look into how many games Machado and Wieters missed in 2014. You've already mentioned Davis' performance when he wasn't allowed to take drugs.

Right now they have a $150 mil offer on the table for Davis, which will probably get it done. All's quiet on the Chen front, but having brought back Wieters, O'Day and likely Davis, there's a good chance Chen is back too.

Orioles had a run differential of +20 last year. +112 the year before. If we average out the two, that's a run differential of +66, which was good enough to get the Yankees into the playoffs in 2015.


The Orioles probably aren't quite as good as in 2014, but if they bring their crew back, they won't be as bad as in 2015. They'll be right there in the hunt with the Jays, Yankees and Red Sox. To dismiss them so flippantly is folly.

Why would you average the two out when so much has changed? If they bring both Chen and Davis back, they're a similar team to 2015 for a lot more money. A lot of key players from 2014 are gone, and they haven't replaced that production.

Unless they bring both of those guys back and add at least one or two more impact players, I would be shocked if they're anything more than a .500-ish team.

 

[Kurtz]

Unless they bring both of those guys back and add at least one or two more impact players, I would be shocked if they're anything more than a .500-ish team.

Assuming they don't add any impact players beyond bringing back Davis and Chen, you don't see them as a playoff contender?

 

[theaub]

Really depends how you define playoff contender I guess

On the whole, a hell of a lot went right for them in 2014 (and they had huge years from Cruz/Pearce who aren't there anymore). I see that as their absolute peak, and last year as a below average/average year for them.

Ergo I'd peg them in the 83-85 win range if they brought those guys back. Based on last year that certainly makes them a WC contender. But I feel like a 'playoff contender' is a team that's supposed to win 90+ and have some leeway if a couple things go badly.

The thing is, I would classify all of Toronto/Baltimore/New York/Cleveland/Detroit/Minnesota/Los Angeles/Seattle/Texas/Houston as teams in the 78-87 win range at various levels (Boston/Kansas City are the true contenders to me at this point and I'm not a fan of Chicago/Oakland/Tampa). So I wouldn't exactly be writing off Baltimore at any rate.