Winnipeg Sun: Jets, Mark Chipman, call for help as attendance decreases

[TheLegend]

Yeah, that's really scary to see those kind of numbers - and couldn't even sell out the home opener!

I mean - 11, 226 is on par with the 95-96 season (average 11, 316) when nobody bothered showing up because the team was already leaving (Note: dangerous to compare a season average attendance with a single game). But this should have been a decent game to watch - LPD's return to Winnipeg, it's October so the weather is hardly that cold, team is off to a good start so far.

There were a few dismal crowds in Chicago last season. IIRC one didn't even crack 10K.

What a difference a year and a #1 pick made for them, huh??

I tend to agree with a few other posters here that the product on the ice has not been up to what the fans expect. And given inflation is now an added factor they're finally speaking with their wallets.

 

[edog37]

Sorry, but I’m not buying it. Simply, they’ve been in Peg for 12 seasons now and have been a playoff team half that time. There is no way you can convince me that the reason they’re not filling the smallest (permanent) arena in the NHL is because that’s not a good record. No way.

This is putting to rest the stupid narrative that any Canadian city of any size will fill up a barn if you put an NHL team there. And it’s precisely why QC won’t be getting a team anytime soon…nor should they.

 

[These Are The Days]

If making the playoffs 6 of 12 seasons is causing the fans to stay away, then there are bigger issues with that market.

In the end, apathy and economic conditions affect every team in every league. The real issue is market size. Larger metros don’t have to rely on the same fans and small corporate dollars year after year. Down economies and poor play is amplified immensely in small markets

I don't disagree that market size plays a part in it but I think it's overblown. If this is a recession it's sure as hell profitable for the investors. I don't know. I'm more than willing to concede that I am liable to be wrong here. I don't know how I could live in Manitoba and be invested in this team at all. It reminds me of WWE. I guess I'm supposed to just love it because it exists and therefore it's allowed to be as mediocre as it wants

Winnipeg might be a small market but at the pace it's growing it'll crack a million people in 10-15 years. It's not some hole in the middle of nowhere, people just act like it is. Spend a few days in a place like South and you'll see what I mean

 

[Revansky]

This is putting to rest the stupid narrative that any Canadian city of any size will fill up a barn if you put an NHL team there. And it’s precisely why QC won’t be getting a team anytime soon…nor should they.

Not to derail the thread but yearly attendance in Quebec was around 14-15k steadily after their first few seasons. I think Quebec would fill the Arena as people farther away from Montreal would choose to go to Quebec instead (a few 100-200 k cities around Quebec + Maritimes) and it's only 2 hours and half away of Montreal. Winnipeg is further away from any canadian major cities (with Regina, the closest one at 5-6 hours) and both their metropolitan areas are the same. Quebec is a more attractive city too than Winnipeg which have an impact.

But i agree with the point that the narrative any canadian city could sustain an NHL team is untrue. Still think Quebec could do well and bring positive value to the NHL as a smaller market. Understand the value to aim for bigger market in the US first though from a business standpoint.

 

[Gnashville]

I was always told Winnipeg would pay into revenue sharing every year and never have any attendance issues! An NHL franchise is a license to print money in Canada!

 

[joelef]

So we’re are the anti coyotes , Quebec fans calling to move them?

 

[Squiffy]

I mean, to me the obvious take is can the NHL team market take a downturn in the economy or not? It’s completely separate from a % of fan support thing. The OG Jets couldn’t last out the start of the 90’s, nor QC, and now we’re seeing it again, possibly, I hope not. I worry.

 

[Squiffy]

I don't know how I could live in Manitoba and be invested in this team at all. It reminds me of WWE. I guess I'm supposed to just love it because it exists and therefore it's allowed to be as mediocre as it wants

You have this analysis of hockey in Canada correct.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

So where are the anti coyotes , Quebec fans calling to move them?

They've been hoisted with their own petards, many of them.

 

[Jets4Life]

The reasons for the low attendance:

1. Ticket prices and concessions have increased substantially in the past 12 years.
2. The Canadian Dollar is now $0.75 US. It was on par in 2011
3. The Winnipeg area only has 900,000 people, lowest in the NHL
4. TNSE has been terrible to its customers, poor game day experience
5. The business community has not stepped up (they only account for 15% of tickets sold)
6. COVID aftermath
7. The cost of living and inflation have risen substantially.
8. Over-saturation. There are many affordable alternatives to the NHL (AHL Moose, Goldeyes, the new basketball team, and even the CFL Blue Bombers).

Unless Winnipeg corporations come through and gobble up nearly 50% of the tickets, this will not end well.

 

[Tawnos]

If mediocrity was an excuse to leave the building empty, there would be a lot of teams without fans. The Sabres and Canucks have had teams for half a century and have a combined zero championships.

As I have repeatedly said, this isn't the only factor at play. It's one of a few different ones, the next post I'm quoting. But I would also point out that, while they don't have championships both of those teams have had windows where they were better than mediocre, including full-on contending windows. They've also had full-on rebuilds (even multiple), which at least provide some level of hope for the future. Being mediocre means you don't have much hope for the present or the future, and fans tend to recognize that. I've been through it too. Extended periods of mediocrity are worse for fans than rebuilds are.

The reasons for the low attendance:

1. Ticket prices and concessions have increased substantially in the past 12 years.
2. The Canadian Dollar is now $0.75 US. It was on par in 2011
3. The Winnipeg area only has 900,000 people, lowest in the NHL
4. TNSE has been terrible to its customers, poor game day experience
5. The business community has not stepped up (they only account for 15% of tickets sold)
6. COVID aftermath
7. The cost of living and inflation have risen substantially.
8. Over-saturation. There are many affordable alternatives to the NHL (AHL Moose, Goldeyes, the new basketball team, and even the CFL Blue Bombers).

Unless Winnipeg corporations come through and gobble up nearly 50% of the tickets, this will not end well.

I think this is a good layout of several factors at play here, some of which are related to each other. When you combine those with the team's on-ice record of mediocrity, it's a recipe for the situation they're in right now.

 

[oldunclehue]

Yeah, but I referenced the "decade of darkness", which is between 2006-2007, and 2015-2016, where they didn't make the playoffs a single time and finished so poorly they managed to get #1 draft pick 4 times. All played in Northlands as well.

Yes but what is the corporate season ticket holder rate in Edmonton? I mean other than 2008 for a bit, Alberta was absolutly BOOMING during that decade. Oil, business, population. Apples to oranges to compare that to Winnipeg.

I for one don't doubt Winnipeg will end up losing the team again. Winnipeg is fickle and unless they can make a deep run and have some excitement, people won't pony up the cash. I know I wont.

We don't have the corporate backing, fans don't want to spend the cash to watch the games in person as is, so at some point things have to change and that may be sooner rather than later.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

I mean, to me the obvious take is can the NHL team market take a downturn in the economy or not? It’s completely separate from a % of fan support thing. The OG Jets couldn’t last out the start of the 90’s, nor QC, and now we’re seeing it again, possibly, I hope not. I worry.

I agree except with the bolded. IMO, it's mostly a % fan/population thing. It's no coincidence that Peg, QC, and Hartford all moved around the same time. Not only are they relying on the main base of fans for ticket sales, but these markets just don't have the same corporate dollars as larger metros. Plus, it's growth. That's why, much to many fans dismay for some reason, the NHL has been focused on the Sunbelt markets. It's where the population has been headed for the last 30 years (mainly from the north).

 

[Jets4Life]

I for one don't doubt Winnipeg will end up losing the team again. Winnipeg is fickle and unless they can make a deep run and have some excitement, people won't pony up the cash. I know I wont.

I take it you have never been to Winnipeg. Fans are not "fickle." Most fans simply do not have the exposable income to go to games on a regular basis. Winnipeg fans love to support hockey, but there are only 900,000 people in the metro area, and most are blue collar.

 

[surixon]

The Jets don't have a fan issue. Their COO hosted a CPA event that I attended a couple months ago. They get comparable TV viewership as the two Alberta teams which enabled them to secure a comparable regional TV deal. The org is experiencing double digit growth in demand for team content.

The challenge is they now have to actively sell going to games whereas the first 10 years they didn't. So you have an org now just starting that process after being complacent with their ticket base. You throw in the increase to cost of living and they couldn't have picked a worse time to change tactics.

Anyhow the org has developed a billion dollars worth of real-estate around the rink and are in the process of trying to develop a half a billion more. They have revenue streams to weather some lean years while the economy normalizes and they win fans back/convince more to become sear holders.

 

[Stumbledore]

I was always told Winnipeg would pay into revenue sharing every year and never have any attendance issues! An NHL franchise is a license to print money in Canada!

If you always believe what you're always told, there's a political movement that loves to have people like you donate to them.

 

[aqib]

I just want to touch on this - going to an NHL game really isn't a family event, and hasn't been for a long time. It's something you take your buddies to, or your SO/Partner, etc.

I do usually take my whole family to a game once per year - a pre-season game where people are almost giving tickets away. But otherwise I've never taken the whole family.

That's a sad state of affairs and I think eventually its going to hurt sports. That's the one of the annoying parts of a lot of the new NFL stadiums being smaller than the ones they are replacing. If you can't take your kids to games its a lot less likely they will become fans

 

[Lions67]

The attendance issue will sort itself out. Of that I have no doubt.
But what does trouble me is this.
When I go to the games, I like to look around at who’s there. I see easily 60% or more people that have grey hair. I do not see the majority of fans attending in the 18-30 year range.
And that is definitely a problem. If the younger fans don’t go, the older fans will eventually expire. And well… then there is no fans.
Tv viewership is solid, merch sales are solid.
But we NEED that younger group to pick up the torch.

 

[aqib]

The attendance issue will sort itself out. Of that I have no doubt.
But what does trouble me is this.
When I go to the games, I like to look around at who’s there. I see easily 60% or more people that have grey hair. I do not see the majority of fans attending in the 18-30 year range.
And that is definitely a problem. If the younger fans don’t go, the older fans will eventually expire. And well… then there is no fans.
Tv viewership is solid, merch sales are solid.
But we NEED that younger group to pick up the torch.

The younger fans probably can't afford tickets. If Winnipeg housing is anything like the rest of Canada they are probably just barely making rent.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I am well aware that, per capita, a Canadian city will have more hockey fans than an American city. An American metro as small as Winnipeg's would never be able to support an NHL team, for instance.

But that being said, Winnipeg is the literal smallest market in the NHL, so issues were going to arise inevitably barring a perfect scenario. There's just less leeway in smaller markets than larger markets. If, say... 50% of a fanbase isn't interested in going to games anymore, that's just more manageable to work around in a city of a few million versus a city of only a few hundred thousand.

I have little doubt that Winnipeg will be fine longterm, though.

 

[varsaku]

Blue Bombers seem to be doing fine.

 

[oldunclehue]

Blue Bombers seem to be doing fine.

Several successfully season of being one of the top teams and winning championships, plus a newish stadium helps...and cheap for a family of four to go watch.

I take it you have never been to Winnipeg. Fans are not "fickle." Most fans simply do not have the exposable income to go to games on a regular basis. Winnipeg fans love to support hockey, but there are only 900,000 people in the metro area, and most are blue collar.

Im born and raised in Winnipeg and grew up a dire hard Jets fans before they left.

If we can't sell out a home opener and have only 11,000 fans in the arena and are trending downwards. Which it has been since 2018, id call the fans fickle.

- Jets 1.0 = couldnt sell out when the team was mediocre
- jets 2.0 = can't sell out when the team is mediocre.

I'd call that fair weather fans...fickle...whatever you want to call it.

 

[Yukon Joe]

The challenge is they now have to actively sell going to games whereas the first 10 years they didn't. So you have an org now just starting that process after being complacent with their ticket base. You throw in the increase to cost of living and they couldn't have picked a worse time to change tactics.

Anyhow the org has developed a billion dollars worth of real-estate around the rink and are in the process of trying to develop a half a billion more. They have revenue streams to weather some lean years while the economy normalizes and they win fans back/convince more to become sear holders.

This. Both points.

I would never say it's impossible for the Jets to leave town. It certainly is. But David Thomson's investment in the Jets is a side-piece to his real estate investments. The Jets help bring people and attention to downtown Winnipeg where Thomson (and to a lesser extent Chipman) have invested substantial sums of money.

And I do think the Jets grew complacent. Tickets pretty much sold themselves the first several years, then the Jets fans had the excitement of finally being a playoff team. The excitement of just being back has worn off, the wait list is gone, so now the Jets need to learn how to actually SELL again.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Yes but what is the corporate season ticket holder rate in Edmonton? I mean other than 2008 for a bit, Alberta was absolutly BOOMING during that decade. Oil, business, population. Apples to oranges to compare that to Winnipeg.

I for one don't doubt Winnipeg will end up losing the team again. Winnipeg is fickle and unless they can make a deep run and have some excitement, people won't pony up the cash. I know I wont.

We don't have the corporate backing, fans don't want to spend the cash to watch the games in person as is, so at some point things have to change and that may be sooner rather than later.

Edmonton is actually a lot like Winnipeg. I mean it is bigger, for sure (Wpg 778k, Edm 1.3 mil, both regional populations), but Edmonton is not really a big corporate headquarters kind of city. The big employers are government and some large industrial refineries and similar businesses. We don't have the big booms (or busts) that Calgary has.

The attendance issue will sort itself out. Of that I have no doubt.
But what does trouble me is this.
When I go to the games, I like to look around at who’s there. I see easily 60% or more people that have grey hair. I do not see the majority of fans attending in the 18-30 year range.
And that is definitely a problem. If the younger fans don’t go, the older fans will eventually expire.

That's a function of ticket prices though.

Who is able to drop $200/seat on hockey tickets? Certainly not students. Maybe a few people in their 20s before they have a lot of expenses, but once you get a house, get married and have kids your money is all spoken for. It's only once yu have grey hair, you're at your earnings peak and the kids are gone, that you can spend that kind of money more easily.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Blue Bombers seem to be doing fine.

To be fair, the Blue Bombers...

- Play only once a week,
- Have cheaper tickets, and
- Have been a near dynasty for the past few years.

Jets would easily be selling out if any one of those things were the case for them.