GDT: Winnipeg Jets @ NY Rangers, 6PM CST -- "We Just Might Be" edition.

[NA Hockey]

Here's why this convo is a nothingburger

Cole has played 711 minutes this season, and he's been on the ice for 30 goals for and 19 against

Basically, that 11 goal difference spread over his entire season and assuming 45 second shifts and 8 minutes of ice a game ont the 4th line means that his team will outscore their opponents once every 8 games with him on the ice

Gus has played 267 minutes this year. He's been on for 6 goals for, and 9 against.

Based on the same assumptions as Cole regarding 4th line usage, Gus will be on the ice for one more goal against than for every 11 games

In other words, neither of these guys impact the game enough to be bitching about at the level we see here

One has 31 points and is a top pp producer and helps make pp2 way better. The other has worse stats across the board and has 3 points all year.

One has the chance to breakout and score at a high rate, the other will never put up points no matter what.

One has a bright future as a top player on the team and the other is “just a guy”

So who do you play? The one who helps the pp, the one with 10x ‘s more points, the one with the better defensive numbers, the one who could break out, the one who is on for more goals for than against, the one who you want to develop?

Or the one who is more physical and is on for more goals against than for?

Seems straightforward but what do I know.

You could use most of these points to say why he should also be playing in Iafallo’s spot while Gabe is out.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

What is your overall opinion on Trouba , I am quite happy with Poink .

I'd take Trouba over Pionk. I loved Jacob as a player, but he's paid too much.

 

[Buffdog]

I mean we could do this for every player and downgrade their impact, but imo in high stakes situation like the playoffs you'd want any advantage you can get no matter how small.

I'd say putting in a 60%gf player over a 40% gf player is the much better bet

See, I believe is always looking at absolute terms rather than relative terms

I could sell you a pill for $1000 that increases your chances of sleeping with a supermodel by 500%

That sounds awesome until you realize that it only increased your chances from 1 in a million to 5 in a million

 

[Buffdog]

One has 31 points and is a top pp producer and helps make pp2 way better. The other has worse stats across the board and has 3 points all year.

One has the chance to breakout and score at a high rate, the other will never put up points no matter what.

One has a bright future as a top player on the team and the other is “just a guy”

So who do you play? The one who helps the pp, the one with 10x ‘s more points, the one with the better defensive numbers, the one who could break out, the one who is on for more goals for than against, the one who you want to develop?

Or the one who is more physical and is on for more goals against than for?

Seems straightforward but what do I know.

If perfetti was producing points at the same rate as he was when he put up those 30 points, I'd agree 100%

If neither are producing, it's a more nuanced conversation. You're basing it on "hope" that perfetti "could" break out. Bones wants to play the guy who he knows exactly what he's gonna get

 

[surixon]

See, I believe is always looking at absolute terms rather than relative terms

I could sell you a pill for $1000 that increases your chances of sleeping with a supermodel by 500%

That sounds awesome until you realize that it only increased your chances from 1 in a million to 5 in a million

That analogy doesn't work. Cole impacts by about 1 goal more then Gus per 60 minutes. One goal in a 7 game series could easily make a difference between losing and winning.

 

[Huffer]

See, I believe is always looking at absolute terms rather than relative terms

I could sell you a pill for $1000 that increases your chances of sleeping with a supermodel by 500%

That sounds awesome until you realize that it only increased your chances from 1 in a million to 5 in a million

 

[NA Hockey]

If perfetti was producing points at the same rate as he was when he put up those 30 points, I'd agree 100%

If neither are producing, it's a more nuanced conversation. You're basing it on "hope" that perfetti "could" break out. Bones wants to play the guy who he knows exactly what he's gonna get

You missed the point. His stats are better across the board. There’s at least a chance he gets hot again and he is the future. Combine those three things and it is a no brainer. Each on their own is good enough, but combined and it makes no sense at all.

Even dead cold, Cole creates 10x more offense than Gus and is better defensively

 

[Buffdog]

That analogy doesn't work. Cole impacts by about 1 goal more then Gus per 60 minutes. One goal in a 7 game series could easily make a difference between losing and winning.

The other issue you have to consider is that the stats we're talking about span the entire season and don't take quality of linemates into consideration. A huge chunk of coles minutes have been played with some combination of schief and/or ehlers

I'm told by the stats nerd here that quality of linemates is perhaps the most important factor in predicting production.

In other words, its foolish to think cole's numbers would continue to project based on his usage on the 4th line. It's a small sample size (64 minutes), but "4th line cole" is zero goals for and three goals against. That's more in line with what you'd expect from him in a 7 game series IMHO

You missed the point. His stats are better across the board. There’s at least a chance he gets hot again and he is the future. Combine those three things and it is a no brainer. Each on their own is good enough, but combined and it makes no sense at all.

Even dead cold, Cole creates 10x more offense than Gus and is better defensively

That's with excellent linemates. On the 4th line he's 0 GF and 3 GA in 64 minutes

 

[Bigfish]

Lol

Cole Perfetti. 63 GP 14 goals 17 assists 31 points
Morgan Barron 66 GP 10 goals 5 assists 15 points
David Gustafasson 33 GP 2 goals 2 assists 4 points (107 total NHL games 3 goals 8 assists 11 points)
Alex Iafallo. 67 GP 10 goal 13 assists. 23 points

Perfetti has been in a 20 game slump and stiil has 16 more points than Barron and 8 more points than Iaffallo. Kinda makes me wonder what Barron and Iaffalo have been doing all year but they seem to get a pass.

Hey lol guy show me something that shows Iaffalo, Barron and Gustafsson have been better than Perfetti this year.

Bones says he is doing everything he can to keep Perfetti in the lineup. If playing Perfetti, a talented 22 year old on the 4th line, on his off side no lees, is everything Bones can do to keep Perfetti in the lineup i would hate to see what Bones would do if he was trying to get a guy off the team. Bones needs to come clean with Perfetti and tell him that he thinks he is too small to play on a Bones team in the NHL. It's the only reason i can think off for not playing Perfetti over a slug like Gustafsson.

 

[robertocarlos]

They drafted Cole as 2C. Why not give him the 4th line 2C job?

 

[KingBogo]

Well we don't know what management thinks. They might not be thrilled with it, just as they weren't thrilled about Maurice not playing Ville a couple of years ago but deferred completely to the coach.

Anyhow we have a difference in philosophy here and I've had a different one then the org has had for years now with bottom 6 deployment and that predates Cole even being drafted here.

Anyhow it will be up to Cole to take this away into the summer and stick it to them next year.

Not sure coming back next year a better player is sticking it to the organization. I’m pretty sure that is what they are hoping for.

 

[robertocarlos]

It's the only reason i can think off for not playing Perfetti over a slug like Gustafsson.

I was with you until you wrote "slug". OK, I'm still with you but Gus Bus is not that bad.

 

[Jet]

Cole Perfetti. 63 GP 14 goals 17 assists 31 points
Morgan Barron 66 GP 10 goals 5 assists 15 points
David Gustafasson 33 GP 2 goals 2 assists 4 points (107 total NHL games 3 goals 8 assists 11 points)
Alex Iafallo. 67 GP 10 goal 13 assists. 23 points

Perfetti has been in a 20 game slump and stiil has 16 more points than Barron and 8 more points than Iaffallo. Kinda makes me wonder what Barron and Iaffalo have been doing all year but they seem to get a pass.

Hey lol guy show me something that shows Iaffalo, Barron and Gustafsson have been better than Perfetti this year.

Bones says he is doing everything he can to keep Perfetti in the lineup. If playing Perfetti, a talented 22 year old on the 4th line, on his off side no lees, is everything Bones can do to keep Perfetti in the lineup i would hate to see what Bones would do if he was trying to get a guy off the team. Bones needs to come clean with Perfetti and tell him that he thinks he is too small to play on a Bones team in the NHL. It's the only reason i can think off for not playing Perfetti over a slug like Gustafsson.

Ahhhh so you think points are all that matters in terms of player contribution.

Also you're conveniently neglecting recent performance.

Now it makes sense

 

[NA Hockey]

The other issue you have to consider is that the stats we're talking about span the entire season and don't take quality of linemates into consideration. A huge chunk of coles minutes have been played with some combination of schief and/or ehlers

I'm told by the stats nerd here that quality of linemates is perhaps the most important factor in predicting production.

In other words, its foolish to think cole's numbers would continue to project based on his usage on the 4th line. It's a small sample size (64 minutes), but "4th line cole" is zero goals for and three goals against. That's more in line with what you'd expect from him in a 7 game series IMHO


That's with excellent linemates. On the 4th line he's 0 GF and 3 GA in 64 minutes

He has played with Scheif less than 10 mins this year at 5 on 5 and basically zero with Connor. He has played a lot with Ehlers but his most common”top6 “ linemates are Vlad and Iafflao.

 

[Bigfish]

I was with you until you wrote "slug". OK, I'm still with you but Gus Bus is not that bad.

I didn't like shitting on Gustafsson because he is still young but 3 goals in 107 games is what it is. Not good.

Ahhhh so you think points are all that matters in terms of player contribution.

Also you're conveniently neglecting recent performance.

Now it makes sense

So you got nothing.

 

[robertocarlos]

Not sure coming back next year a better player is sticking it to the organization. I’m pretty sure that is what they are hoping for.

Play him or send him to the Moose. If not, then he will come back a worse player. He's certainly not going to get $6 x 6 next contract at this rate and that's when he will blame us and look for a new opportunity.

 

[surixon]

Not sure coming back next year a better player is sticking it to the organization. I’m pretty sure that is what they are hoping for.

Of course they want and will be happy with it. But I'm looking at it from the players perspective of not being happy with what has transpired. I'm sure Helle wasn't thrilled when he was younger and they brought in a starter after a bad year. He went out to prove them wrong for it. Even if what he did was what they were hoping he'd do.

 

[Jet]

I didn't like shitting on Gustafsson because he is still young but 3 goals in 107 games is what it is. Not good.



So you got nothing.

Haha yup I guess not?

I can't argue with someone in an alternate reality

 

[MardyBum]

Perfetti is on one huuge (what's the opposite of a heater, a colder?) stretch of bad luck. Anyone talking about him not being an NHLer is out of their mind. It would benefit the Jets going into the playoffs if Perfetti played more down the stretch and finally got a goal so if you don't play him game 1 of the playoffs he is out of this funk and ready to step in. This team isn't flowing in top 6 talent with Vilardi out.

They drafted Cole as 2C. Why not give him the 4th line 2C job?

Because the Jets can't be bothered to develop fulltime C's?

 

[surixon]

Perfetti is on one huuge (what's the opposite of a heater, a colder?) stretch of bad luck. Anyone talking about him not being an NHLer is out of their mind. It would benefit the Jets going into the playoffs if Perfetti played more down the stretch and finally got a goal so if you don't play him game 1 of the playoffs he is out of this funk and ready to step in. This team isn't flowing in top 6 talent with Vilardi out.

Yup, he's dead last in terms of on ice shooting percentage outside of Kupari the last 25 games. Does anyone really think 3% is going to continue long term with what he generates.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

So….we are having a Gustafsson vs Perfetti debate.

This is a real thing we are discussing…..

Oh man - this game can not start soon enough. lol.

 

[NA Hockey]

Haha yup I guess not?

I can't argue with someone in an alternate reality

Not aurehow he is an alternate reality. He is speaking facts.

Gus has 3 goals in 107 games. That’s not good.

And he isn't neglecting recent performance. Even in a cold spell Cole is better than Gus and Iaffalo etc. and not just scoring but other aspects as well.

But you do you. Ever thought you were living in an alternate universe?

 

[Bigfish]

Haha yup I guess not?

I can't argue with someone in an alternate reality

Just curious. Is everyone that disagrees with you in an alternate reality or just me?

 

[Jets 31]

Cole Perfetti. 63 GP 14 goals 17 assists 31 points
Morgan Barron 66 GP 10 goals 5 assists 15 points
David Gustafasson 33 GP 2 goals 2 assists 4 points (107 total NHL games 3 goals 8 assists 11 points)
Alex Iafallo. 67 GP 10 goal 13 assists. 23 points

Perfetti has been in a 20 game slump and stiil has 16 more points than Barron and 8 more points than Iaffallo. Kinda makes me wonder what Barron and Iaffalo have been doing all year but they seem to get a pass.

Hey lol guy show me something that shows Iaffalo, Barron and Gustafsson have been better than Perfetti this year.

Bones says he is doing everything he can to keep Perfetti in the lineup. If playing Perfetti, a talented 22 year old on the 4th line, on his off side no lees, is everything Bones can do to keep Perfetti in the lineup i would hate to see what Bones would do if he was trying to get a guy off the team. Bones needs to come clean with Perfetti and tell him that he thinks he is too small to play on a Bones team in the NHL. It's the only reason i can think off for not playing Perfetti over a slug like Gustafsson.

I get mostly everyone wants Perfetti to have success, it helps the Jets and that's all i really care about. I have a tough time calling out Bowness with the success we are having so far though but that's just me.

 

[Joe Hallenback]