Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[voyageur]

Push the 40 goal scorer down the line up? What are we even taking about here? Get realistic. Kyle Connor isn't the problem with this team. I guess a man can dream but until the Jets pick in the top 3 again this isn't going to happen.

Scheif and KC can be streaky either way, hot or cold. I'd like to see Colby Barlow get a chance to play on Scheif's wing in preseason. I wonder if Perfetti ends up at C, would Arniel put KC on his wing, spread out scoring. Analytics are probably favorable with that combination.

 

[TS Quint]

Scheif and KC can be streaky either way, hot or cold. I'd like to see Colby Barlow get a chance to play on Scheif's wing in preseason. I wonder if Perfetti ends up at C, would Arniel put KC on his wing, spread out scoring. Analytics are probably favorable with that combination.

And you think Barlow has anywhere near a realistic shot at replacing Connor's 40 goals? What are we talking about here? How are we even discussing Kyle Connor like he's your average run of the mill player?

 

[Eyeseeing]

Based on the poll results it looks like most would be satisfied with what has happened so far this off season.

 

[ps241]

it's a very tough situation, we are more dependent on the draft and unless we get extremely lucky and hit on more prospects then the average team we will have holes to fix that can't be done thru free agency and forcing us to go the trade route if we want to be competitive, it's about finding the right balance of picks we can give up while not totally destroying our prospect pool

Yea we are at a huge disadvantage for sure and now we have to add customer demand as a factor which seems like a piling on penalty. That was not an issue in our first run up as we built an attractive core one draft at a time. To get the highest probability picks we may need to dip down for at least one or two seasons which can happen even due to key injuries.


The upside is the Jets do not have fully empty prospect cupboards like in 2010-11. By my absolutely unqualified estimation I think we are two picks away from being able to rebuild our core within 5 years. I believe we need a couple of prospects that are materially better than any asset under 23 years old in our current system. One of those two will need to be a top 15 level franchise centre IMO.

We’ll see how it plays out I want to make sure I am not coming across as too pessimistic. I think we just need to find the balance. We had our fun giving away 90% of the value of a draft class to rent assets to back a 4th overall level team on a cup run this spring. That was more expensive and excessive than we have done in the past. I understand why that happened but we need to take it as a learning lesson and find a bit more of a mid ground based on the limits of our current roster and the challenges of our market to remain viable.

Honestly I do think it’s achievable even if I’m not convinced about the probability but the leadership needs to find the balance.

 

[voyageur]

And you think Barlow has anywhere near a realistic shot at replacing Connor's 40 goals? What are we talking about here? How are we even discussing Kyle Connor like he's your average run of the mill player?

34 goals...29 ES. 10 GWG. Some of which came playing on a line with Monahan and Perfetti. 40 goals would come if PP improved...Now the challenge is replacing Ehlers 25 ES goals and upgrading the defense to score more, while replacing guys who took regular PK shifts...

I'm just saying with the guys who are coming to camp, competing, where do they fit? Where would you want to see a 40 goal OHL player start?

Barlow-Scheif-Vilardi (OHL line)
Connor-Perfetti-Namestnikov
Nino-Lowry-Lambert
Iafallo-Barron-Appleton

that's putting young players in a spot where they can succeed...not saying that's your starting lineup, but that's where I'd start these guys to see what they can bring. As my colleague is saying, the Jets to reap the success of 2018 and 2019, our brief window of contention, need some push from ELC/bridge forwards who have been the feature of the draft from 2020-2023.

There isn't an easy fix for the defense, but I don't know how you can continue putting out middling d-men and expect to be great...and the draft of Heinola well maybe he becomes top pairing like Harley but I have reservations about that potential. For me Ehlers is the chip to improve the defense, but scoring up front might require an internal solution, based on draft history.

No shots fired at KC. Just need balance to avoid becoming a one trick pony.

 

[Jack7222]

And you think Barlow has anywhere near a realistic shot at replacing Connor's 40 goals? What are we talking about here? How are we even discussing Kyle Connor like he's your average run of the mill player?

I think we should aim at lines that outproduce opposition, end of. If top line takes a step back offensively and a big step forward defensively it makes us a better team doesn't it

Kyle Connor played his best hockey on the 2nd line with Dubois imo, and him and Scheif together has basically been the backbone of an absolutely middling 1st line the last 4 years

 

[DRW204]

The Jets moving forward are not going to duplicate either of those scenarios.

The Jets kind of sucked from 2010 to 2016 while they had a sold out building and high customer demand so they were given breathing room. They were usually bottom 3rd of the league level which allowed them to draft in that 8 to 13 range during that era (7, 9, 13, 9, 17, 2) . They did a good job under Comeau and his staff. I don’t see us drafting in that range for a “prolonged” period again for at least 5 to 7 years.

The Stars freak run of drafting is what it is and it only gets discussed because of survivorship bias.

For the Jets they have an existing group of prospects already so there is a bit to work with. Most of the current pool don’t feel to me like they are at the level of the best from 2011-16 guys but there might be some nice support pieces. We still have perhaps 3 to 5 drafts to get a bit lucky. Almost all high end #1 centre’s are drafted in the top 10-15 so it remains to be seen if we get lucky on a year when we take a step back. Outside of that we just have to keep plugging away and land some picks. We don’t have to replace all the guys but we will need to draft a #1 and we will need to hit on a few good D men.

What would you say our current window of being a playoff level team is before our top guys become less effective? Would it be 3-4 years give or take?

This is not a market we are going to attract top free agents and we are cock blocked from so many trades. Given our limitations we will need to eventually replace our prime core of 2011 to 2016 with drafted players in my opinion.

i've said for years - to the dismay of many on here - the Jets drafting was really good when they were the constant top-10-15 picks early on. Helle ofc was an excellent selection, the Jets waiting essentially 12 rounds to select him was master-class (being tongue in cheek here). but really from '11-'16, they were missing the POs constantly and picking high, & the one PO year they were a mid-1st (17th) in possibly the greatest draft ever. so the quality is a lot different vs now.

anyway, none of your post really answers the questions i posed. i understand the Jets drafted v early and got all these good players. which is why i don't think the comparison to 17-18 team vs now doesn't necessarily fit. the 17-18 team had youth to the quality of laine, connor, ehlers, trouba and morrissey. that's half a top-6 and a top-pair. who is coming on ELC as 21U (21 & under) at FWD at that high of production or quality? or 23U at D?

 

[TS Quint]

I think we should aim at lines that outproduce opposition, end of. If top line takes a step back offensively and a big step forward defensively it makes us a better team doesn't it

Kyle Connor played his best hockey on the 2nd line with Dubois imo, and him and Scheif together has basically been the backbone of an absolutely middling 1st line the last 4 years

How did the sum of the lines do this year at out producing the opposition?

 

[ps241]

i've said for years - to the dismay of many on here - the Jets drafting was really good when they were the constant top-10-15 picks early on. Helle ofc was an excellent selection, the Jets waiting essentially 12 rounds to select him was master-class (being tongue in cheek here). but really from '11-'16, they were missing the POs constantly and picking high, & the one PO year they were a mid-1st (17th) in possibly the greatest draft ever. so the quality is a lot different vs now.

anyway, none of your post really answers the questions i posed. i understand the Jets drafted v early and got all these good players. which is why i don't think the comparison to 17-18 team vs now doesn't necessarily fit. the 17-18 team had youth to the quality of laine, connor, ehlers, trouba and morrissey. that's half a top-6 and a top-pair. who is coming on ELC as 21U (21 & under) at FWD at that high of production or quality? or 23U at D?

Scrambling to pick up and drop off kids here today. I am not trying to be evasive but I have multiple conversations going here at once.

Can you restate your question as simply as possible and Nostradamus will give it a crack here during one of my unpaid Uber driver breaks here.

 

[Jack7222]

How did the sum of the lines do this year at out producing the opposition?

Top-of-league level elite when Connor was out of the lineup...

Edit: I do like Connor. I just like him better as 'the guy' on his line instead of deferring to Scheif all the time; not a fan of that duo at all and I don't think it's ridiculous at all to split them, in fact i think at this point it seems kind of obvious

 

[Buffdog]

34 goals...29 ES. 10 GWG. Some of which came playing on a line with Monahan and Perfetti. 40 goals would come if PP improved...Now the challenge is replacing Ehlers 25 ES goals and upgrading the defense to score more, while replacing guys who took regular PK shifts...

I'm just saying with the guys who are coming to camp, competing, where do they fit? Where would you want to see a 40 goal OHL player start?

Barlow-Scheif-Vilardi (OHL line)
Connor-Perfetti-Namestnikov
Nino-Lowry-Lambert
Iafallo-Barron-Appleton

that's putting young players in a spot where they can succeed...not saying that's your starting lineup, but that's where I'd start these guys to see what they can bring. As my colleague is saying, the Jets to reap the success of 2018 and 2019, our brief window of contention, need some push from ELC/bridge forwards who have been the feature of the draft from 2020-2023.

There isn't an easy fix for the defense, but I don't know how you can continue putting out middling d-men and expect to be great...and the draft of Heinola well maybe he becomes top pairing like Harley but I have reservations about that potential. For me Ehlers is the chip to improve the defense, but scoring up front might require an internal solution, based on draft history.

No shots fired at KC. Just need balance to avoid becoming a one trick pony.

Zero chance Barlow is anywhere but in the OHL next season. If there were a top 6 winger spot available to a rookie, it would go to Lambert or McG

Rookies don't just show up in the NHL with zero pro experience and get tossed on the top line that plays vs other teams best unless they're Connor Bedard. It has nothing to do with a prejudice towards youth but just the simple fact that the pro game is much different that juniors and there's a learning curve

It's painful to say this after the end of last season, but I'm hoping Barlow eventually turns into a Toffoli type with a bit more heart/grit. He's at least 2 or 3 years away from the NHL at this point - one more in junior and at least one on the Moose

 

[Adam da bomb]

34 goals...29 ES. 10 GWG. Some of which came playing on a line with Monahan and Perfetti. 40 goals would come if PP improved...Now the challenge is replacing Ehlers 25 ES goals and upgrading the defense to score more, while replacing guys who took regular PK shifts...

I'm just saying with the guys who are coming to camp, competing, where do they fit? Where would you want to see a 40 goal OHL player start?

Barlow-Scheif-Vilardi (OHL line)
Connor-Perfetti-Namestnikov
Nino-Lowry-Lambert
Iafallo-Barron-Appleton

that's putting young players in a spot where they can succeed...not saying that's your starting lineup, but that's where I'd start these guys to see what they can bring. As my colleague is saying, the Jets to reap the success of 2018 and 2019, our brief window of contention, need some push from ELC/bridge forwards who have been the feature of the draft from 2020-2023.

There isn't an easy fix for the defense, but I don't know how you can continue putting out middling d-men and expect to be great...and the draft of Heinola well maybe he becomes top pairing like Harley but I have reservations about that potential. For me Ehlers is the chip to improve the defense, but scoring up front might require an internal solution, based on draft history.

No shots fired at KC. Just need balance to avoid becoming a one trick pony.

Would rather have Gus than Iafallo, otherwise looks good.

Zero chance Barlow is anywhere but in the OHL next season. If there were a top 6 winger spot available to a rookie, it would go to Lambert or McG

Rookies don't just show up in the NHL with zero pro experience and get tossed on the top line that plays vs other teams best unless they're Connor Bedard. It has nothing to do with a prejudice towards youth but just the simple fact that the pro game is much different that juniors and there's a learning curve

It's painful to say this after the end of last season, but I'm hoping Barlow eventually turns into a Toffoli type with a bit more heart/grit. He's at least 2 or 3 years away from the NHL at this point - one more in junior and at least one on the Moose

Tofolli had some good years, before now.

 

[surixon]

Push the 40 goal scorer down the line up? What are we even taking about here? Get realistic. Kyle Connor isn't the problem with this team. I guess a man can dream but until the Jets pick in the top 3 again this isn't going to happen.

I'm talking about a couple years down the line, not next year.

Also it's about scoring more then you give up and Mark and Kyle together give up more then they get at 5 on 5.

Zero chance Barlow is anywhere but in the OHL next season. If there were a top 6 winger spot available to a rookie, it would go to Lambert or McG

Rookies don't just show up in the NHL with zero pro experience and get tossed on the top line that plays vs other teams best unless they're Connor Bedard. It has nothing to do with a prejudice towards youth but just the simple fact that the pro game is much different that juniors and there's a learning curve

It's painful to say this after the end of last season, but I'm hoping Barlow eventually turns into a Toffoli type with a bit more heart/grit. He's at least 2 or 3 years away from the NHL at this point - one more in junior and at least one on the Moose

Fully agree. I want some youth in our lineup but it has to be ready. Barlow really only has a pro shot at this point. He needs to flesh out a lot of the other areas of his game.

 

[Dale53130]

Top-of-league level elite when Connor was out of the lineup...

Edit: I do like Connor. I just like him better as 'the guy' on his line instead of deferring to Scheif all the time; not a fan of that duo at all and I don't think it's ridiculous at all to split them, in fact i think at this point it seems kind of obvious

100% with you on the edit update.

He's far more assertive being put in that position. It's not a demotion. The #1 need is to get a stud defenseman, so I'd be more willing to try Perfetti at center with KFC, and try out one of the younger assets (if that player seizes a spot in camp) with Scheifele and Vilardi, over re-signing Monahan (though I'm not against that at the right price) or acquiring another forward at this point.

We really need more on defense at this juncture.

Also, Hellybuyck is similar to Ken Dryden and Brodeur, an angles-goalie, who really can't scramble; like Hasek or Fuhr. He needs guys that can clear out the front of the net. The Jets are clearly lacking in this department, and Hellebuyck is supposed to be our best player. We need to put him in a situation to be successful over anything else.

 

[WolfHouse]

Nino-Scheif-Perfetti
Connor-Monahan/Lambert-Ehlers
Barron-Lowry-Vilardi
AJF-Gus-Apples

ROLL THE LINES - forget matchups... these are three balanced lines and likely the only way the Jets compete without super high-end talent.

Jets got away from the basic mix of speed/forecheck-finisher/net front-playmaker - this deployment has that...

I think we are married to Names and Iafallo and likely Kupari gets another shot though - suspect the only constant heading into this season is KFC-Scheif and Nino-Lowry-Apples... which didn't work last playoffs.

 

[LowLefty]

100% with you on the edit update.

He's far more assertive being put in that position. It's not a demotion. The #1 need is to get a stud defenseman, so I'd be more willing to try Perfetti at center with KFC, and try out one of the younger assets (if that player seizes a spot in camp) with Scheifele and Vilardi, over re-signing Monahan (though I'm not against that at the right price) or acquiring another forward at this point.

We really need more on defense at this juncture.

Also, Hellybuyck is similar to Ken Dryden and Brodeur, an angles-goalie, who really can't scramble; like Hasek or Fuhr. He needs guys that can clear out the front of the net. The Jets are clearly lacking in this department, and Hellebuyck is supposed to be our best player. We need to put him in a situation to be successful over anything else.

Good points - I agree with all of it
The question is whether 55 will permit any moves that remove 81 from his wing.
It's easy to say they need to make that change - but does anyone really think it will happen?

As for D, I don't know where to start - so much work to do on the blueline.
Ville will get a shot but will not help in the issue you bring up - it will likely be worse.
Add Dillon likely leaving and what do we have left to do that heavy lifting that Helle needs (aside from 44) - Samberg?
A number 1 RHD with some skill and grit would make a lot of the pain go away - but we'd need to draft that player.

I hope they hang onto their draft pics the next few years - looks for a D and a C and hope they pan out / over achieve.
But I don't see our GM going that route - he appears to simply want to make the PO's with what we have (while giving up pics for a few late add on utility players) and the hope that Helle will fill all the major holes.
This might work in the reg season for a couple of yrs - which is likely the life span of Chevy.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In the playoffs the opposite happened. Both elements imploded.

Yup.
Was that because Avs countered Jets strengths? Or was it because Jets forgot what got them there and/or failed to execute?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

And just to be clear (and to elaborate on my overraction)... the stats you posted about Ehlers and Schief appear significant until you look at it in absolute terms

During the 5 years you referenced, the Jets scored 1138 goals and gave up 1028. So the goal differential of +87 with schief and ehlers together makes for 7.6% of goals scored

And it accounts for 79% of the goal differential.

 

[voyageur]

Would rather have Gus than Iafallo, otherwise looks good.


Tofolli had some good years, before now.

Iafallo is a tradable player...I'll give him some credit he stepped up in Barron's spot on the top PK unit in the playoffs and he and Lowry defended well. But you could see a cheaper or I should say discounted to be more Winnipeg version of the same player on the Jets...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He's +27 over a span of 18,000 minutes of 5v5 that the Jets have played during the 5 years that you mentionned in the post I first replied to.

That means that Nik Ehlers is on the ice for one more goal for than against at 5v5 every 667 minutes of total Jets 5v5 game time - or once every 14 games or so

You and I are looking at the same numbers but from opposite places. You've zoomed in as far as you can on Nik. I've zoomed out as far as I can to see how that fits in the overall impact he has on his team and games

And yes, I realize he has been injured in a number of those games but that's also part of the point I'm trying to make.

If your zooming out that way is the right way to put perspective on this issue, compare Ehlers positive impact over that time frame with the positive impacts of other players who you are willing to acknowledge as having significant impacts.

The positive goal differentials and shot metrics appear large to me. The difference between Ehlers and Scheifele appears stark - to me. But maybe I am failing to see that big picture. Maybe 1GF every 14 games vs 1GA every 14 games doesn't amount too much. Though it strikes me that even if I accept your big picture POV, that difference still makes Ehlers the more productive player of the 2. A small difference is still a difference.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I always thought the PP2 was a choice more so than anything. Maybe I'm misremembering but I thought Maurice mentioned that he preferred playing on PP2 where he could be the go to guy rather than being on PP1 but I could be wrong there.

I struggle with moving Connor because he can produce well in the playoffs and if we can ever get him away from Scheif then he's likely one of our better producers there. Unless the return is a top 6 C that is comparable than we probably shouldn't do it.

Also lets do the same exercise we have been doing here but for the playoffs over the same time span.

As I recall that situation, Maurice offered a PP1 spot to Ehlers but Ehlers did not like the role Mau offered. I don't know if I ever knew the role. If I did, I don't recall it now.

Very well could be. Also could be coaching refusing to deploy players correctly on the pp.

Our PP? Nooooo. Couldn't be.

 

[Stumbledore]

I think we are married to Names and Iafallo and likely Kupari gets another shot though - suspect the only constant heading into this season is KFC-Scheif and Nino-Lowry-Apples... which didn't work last playoffs.

I would be curious to see what those two lines could accomplish with an assistant coach who can conjure up an effective powerplay.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not saying that his results aren't good, or that he's not good. I'm just saying that his importance is being overstated.

Hockey (and most sports) are strange in that even though teams play for 60 minutes (or 90 in soccer), for the vast amount of that time nothing that impacts the scoreboard is happening. Plays that lead to goals only take seconds to develop, and in most games there are 4 or 5 goals total. The rest of that time, is mostly forgettable

What you're doing is focusing on the rare moments in Ehlers games where something happens that leads to a goal for or against. I'm just trying to show the perspective than most games, and almost every shift, nothing good or bad happens with him on the ice that ends up on the scoreboard

But given that scoring moments are so rare you can say the exact same thing about all players. A player like James Wright is exactly the same as either Scheifele or Ehlers the vast majority of the time. Wright even generated scoring opportunities if you want to go there. But he could never convert on them. It is only that small minority of the time that differentiates between the good players and the bad ones.

 

[Buffdog]

And it accounts for 79% of the goal differential.

Check your math... there are 3 forwards on the ice for each goal differential

 

[Buffdog]

If your zooming out that way is the right way to put perspective on this issue, compare Ehlers positive impact over that time frame with the positive impacts of other players who you are willing to acknowledge as having significant impacts.

The positive goal differentials and shot metrics appear large to me. The difference between Ehlers and Scheifele appears stark - to me. But maybe I am failing to see that big picture. Maybe 1GF every 14 games vs 1GA every 14 games doesn't amount too much. Though it strikes me that even if I accept your big picture POV, that difference still makes Ehlers the more productive player of the 2. A small difference is still a difference.

When you're talking "Ehlers vs Schief", you're talking relative terms. I'm talking absolute terms

I think that maybe you don't understand the difference. Relative terms can make small changes in absolute chances look significant, even it they aren't

I've used this analogy before... let's say that I have a magic pill that increases your chances of sleeping with a supermodel by 1000X. I'll sell it to you for $5000

On the surface, that looks great. Until you realize that right now, you only have a 0.000001% chance of sleeping with a super model and the pill would increase your chances to 0.001%. So you still have a 99.999% chance of never sleeping with a supermodel.

The 1000X is the relative difference, but the absolute difference is 0.000999%.

Would you use the relative difference or the absolute difference when deciding whether or not to drop the $5000 on my magic pill?

You're using the relative differences with and without Ehlers to determine his impact. I'm using the absolute difference