Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Channelcat]

To be fair, Schief, Vilardi, Monahan and Toffoli lacked that energy, which is why we got smoked

On the other hand, I thought Connor actually upped his game a little in the playoffs in terms of energy and physicality

Going into the playoffs I was fully prepared to throw KFC under the bus for playing soft hockey not conducive to playoffs.....lo and behold he's forchecking like a MF and throwing his body around. Actually the last month of the season or so, he was also excellent. Meanwhile some of guys we expect to bring the grinding game instead brought nothing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I've never bought the narrative that Ehlers has been treated unfairly by the Jets and he is one of my favourite players. Hell I have a game worn, signed Ehlers jersey hanging on my home office wall. While he is a great possession player, he is creeping into the back half of his prime and has never hit 30 goals or 65 points. And I've been working hard to avoid conversations on his yearly disappearing act in the playoffs. Those that believe he is a top 10 or even a top 20 winger in the NHL are delusional. No GM will consider him as such. If the Jets pony up something fair I think he jumps at it. I will say 7 X $7.5 gets it done.

Of course he has never hot 30 goals/65 pts. That is the problem.

I don't like getting into things like top 10, top 20, etc. but we have lots of data to indicate that he would have scored much higher if used differently.

Like I said before, I can't read his mind. I know that if I was him, I would be going to the UFA market. Jets would need to make a ridiculous offer to get my attention. It is about money but not only about money.

 

[Buffdog]

Of course he has never hot 30 goals/65 pts. That is the problem.

I don't like getting into things like top 10, top 20, etc. but we have lots of data to indicate that he could have scored much higher if used differently.

Like I said before, I can't read his mind. I know that if I was him, I would be going to the UFA market. Jets would need to make a ridiculous offer to get my attention. It is about money but not only about money.

Fixed it for you

P/60 doesn't scale linearly. Who knows where the apex in terms of ice time is for Ehlers, but I have a feeling that the org knows and that's why he was used the way he was

When people can't explain somebody's decisions with whom they disagree, it's very easy to play the "they're incompetent" card when in reality there is probably just something they know that you don't

 

[WolfHouse]

Zone entries mean shit when they amount to nothing but lost possession

Except xGF and all the other stats would indicate you are wrong.

 

[Buffdog]

Except xGF and all the other stats would indicate you are wrong.

Can't speak for @Jet but I can think of one play where Ehlers came in down the left side on a 3-2 and fired a shot that missed high short side and the puck wrapped all the way around the glass and ended up in his own end. Sure it's an anecdote but let's not pretend we can't all remember him making silly plays like that

So yes, he gained zone entry and got credit for that. In fact, his shot attempt would even get him a CF. But he killed the play and his whole team had to go back to their own end and break out again

So that's an example of how advanced stats don't detect all the little nuanced plays that go on through the course of a game. And by the way, that's exactly the type of play that would frustrate a guy like schief who likes to gain possession in the ozone and work the cycle

And remember, I love Ehlers.. but plays like that are the flaw in his game

 

[KingBogo]

Of course he has never hot 30 goals/65 pts. That is the problem.

I don't like getting into things like top 10, top 20, etc. but we have lots of data to indicate that he would have scored much higher if used differently.

Like I said before, I can't read his mind. I know that if I was him, I would be going to the UFA market. Jets would need to make a ridiculous offer to get my attention. It is about money but not only about money.

Not sure I'm buying everything you are selling Mort. You can say he would score more with different usage, but the bottom line is he hasn't put up the points and he is now in his late 20's. Other than not playing primarily with the team's top center Ehlers has played consistently in the top 6 and plays on the #2 PP, which mostly goes through him. Most players would consider that pretty good usage. And it is certainly not uncommon for teams to not play their top center with their top winger to help spread out the offense. And it has been established that Ehlers TOI is more a result on shift length and not shift # as he gets on the ice as often he just comes off quicker. There could be multiple reasons for this. Either way I can't see teams opening the bank for him as a UFA. He will get paid well, but no team is going to pay him for the points he "could" have scored, especially at this point in his career.

 

[10Ducky10]

It almost sounds like there is something fundamentally wrong with the top 6. I wonder which lunatic has been saying that for half a decade now.

Scheifele certainly isn't built for the playoffs.
I mean, they have won every playoff game they have played without Scheif...

 

[Jet]

Except xGF and all the other stats would indicate you are wrong.

Maybe they are wrong

 

[WolfHouse]

Can't speak for @Jet but I can think of one play where Ehlers came in down the left side on a 3-2 and fired a shot that missed high short side and the puck wrapped all the way around the glass and ended up in his own end. Sure it's an anecdote but let's not pretend we can't all remember him making silly plays like that

So yes, he gained zone entry and got credit for that. In fact, his shot attempt would even get him a CF. But he killed the play and his whole team had to go back to their own end and break out again

So that's an example of how advanced stats don't detect all the little nuanced plays that go on through the course of a game. And by the way, that's exactly the type of play that would frustrate a guy like schief who likes to gain possession in the ozone and work the cycle

And remember, I love Ehlers.. but plays like that are the flaw in his game

Fancy stats are the answer to misguided small sample sizes

 

[WolfHouse]

Maybe they are wrong

I mean you do have 33k posts so that counts for something

 

[Jet]

I mean you do have 33k posts so that counts for something

Great, GREAT point! You're super excellent at making cogent respectful arguments and not devolving into passive aggressive attacks when you're opinion is challenged. Kudos!

 

[WolfHouse]

Great, GREAT point! You're super excellent at making cogent respectful arguments and not devolving into passive aggressive attacks when you're opinion is challenged. Kudos!

Sorry I thought you were being sarcastic so I was as well... I'll reread your posts - maybe you do have more insight than multiple statstical models

 

[Jet]

Sorry I thought you were being sarcastic so I was as well... I'll reread your posts - maybe you do have more insight than multiple statstical models

Not that it will matter to you, but if you read many of my immense 33 THOUSAND posts you'd know that I work with data and analytics in my business, and my issue with hockey advanced stats are well defined and explained.

I'm sure that you've scientifically evaluated hockey metrics and have come to a well educated conclusion that they're valid, though.

 

[WolfHouse]

Not that it will matter to you, but if you read many of my immense 33 THOUSAND posts you'd know that I work with data and analytics in my business, and my issue with hockey advanced stats are well defined and explained.

I'm sure that you've scientifically evaluated hockey metrics and have come to a well educated conclusion that they're valid, though.

You hide it well.

 

[Buffdog]

Fancy stats are the answer to misguided small sample sizes

I think we're quickly approaching a time when we won't have to play hockey games at all... we can just run a mathematical model that will spit out a winner for us based on advanced stats

 

[WolfHouse]

I think we're quickly approaching a time when we won't have to play hockey games at all... we can just run a mathematical model that will spit out a winner for us based on advanced stats

We reached that on fan forums about a decade ago haha...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not sure I'm buying everything you are selling Mort. You can say he would score more with different usage, but the bottom line is he hasn't put up the points and he is now in his late 20's. Other than not playing primarily with the team's top center Ehlers has played consistently in the top 6 and plays on the #2 PP, which mostly goes through him. Most players would consider that pretty good usage. And it is certainly not uncommon for teams to not play their top center with their top winger to help spread out the offense. And it has been established that Ehlers TOI is more a result on shift length and not shift # as he gets on the ice as often he just comes off quicker. There could be multiple reasons for this. Either way I can't see teams opening the bank for him as a UFA. He will get paid well, but no team is going to pay him for the points he "could" have scored, especially at this point in his career.

Sure .... most players would. Most players are not top 6 players much less 1st line.

You talk about the bottom line of what he has not done, but how many players have done as much with similar usage?

I'm not saying he will get more money by going to UFA. I'm saying he will go there and find out if he is not traded. My trade request would already be on Chevy's desk.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fixed it for you

P/60 doesn't scale linearly. Who knows where the apex in terms of ice time is for Ehlers, but I have a feeling that the org knows and that's why he was used the way he was

When people can't explain somebody's decisions with whom they disagree, it's very easy to play the "they're incompetent" card when in reality there is probably just something they know that you don't

We have seen actual results when he has been played with Scheifele. No stats with an X in front, no derived stats.

 

[surixon]

Not sure I'm buying everything you are selling Mort. You can say he would score more with different usage, but the bottom line is he hasn't put up the points and he is now in his late 20's. Other than not playing primarily with the team's top center Ehlers has played consistently in the top 6 and plays on the #2 PP, which mostly goes through him. Most players would consider that pretty good usage. And it is certainly not uncommon for teams to not play their top center with their top winger to help spread out the offense. And it has been established that Ehlers TOI is more a result on shift length and not shift # as he gets on the ice as often he just comes off quicker. There could be multiple reasons for this. Either way I can't see teams opening the bank for him as a UFA. He will get paid well, but no team is going to pay him for the points he "could" have scored, especially at this point in his career.

You are forgetting one important thing for offensive players and that is pp time. Ehlers has very rarely gotten first unit pp minutes. Being on the first unit generally inflates point totals and he hasn't been on ours. He also hasn't gotten much EN and 3 on 3 time to further inflate totals.

Points lead to cash. So while his usage hadn't been awful, it also hasn't been optimal. This will be his last big contract and I expect he is being advised to optimize it.

 

[Buffdog]

We have seen actual results when he has been played with Scheifele. No stats with an X in front, no derived stats.

You're starting to sound like the Finns WRT Laine lol

Not everyone can play on the top line. To have a balanced team, you need someone to drive the second line

Since Schief also gets better results with Ehlers, I wonder why there are no threads about him not getting "optimal usage"? It certainly didn't drive HIM to ask for a trade

Maybe Ehlers hates playing with Schief? Has anyone considered that? It always seems to be assumed that it's the other way around

 

[bumblebeeman]

Sure .... most players would. Most players are not top 6 players much less 1st line.

You talk about the bottom line of what he has not done, but how many players have done as much with similar usage?

I'm not saying he will get more money by going to UFA. I'm saying he will go there and find out if he is not traded. My trade request would already be on Chevy's desk.

Ehlers seems to like it here imo

You are forgetting one important thing for offensive players and that is pp time. Ehlers has very rarely gotten first unit pp minutes. Being on the first unit generally inflates point totals and he hasn't been on ours. He also hasn't gotten much EN and 3 on 3 time to further inflate totals.

Points lead to cash. So while his usage hadn't been awful, it also hasn't been optimal. This will be his last big contract and I expect he is being advised to optimize it.

I wonder if he is being advised to re-sign asap as well. Get that guaranteed ~40 million USD locked up

 

[Heldig]

I mostly hope the Jets keep Ehlers. He is fun to watch and one of our better players. Playoffs have been poor for several players but he has been disappointing.

Still, something need to give to be a better team next year.

The D will look different. It is a bit worrisome atm.

 

[WolfHouse]

You're starting to sound like the Finns WRT Laine lol

Not everyone can play on the top line. To have a balanced team, you need someone to drive the second line

Since Schief also gets better results with Ehlers, I wonder why there are no threads about him not getting "optimal usage"? It certainly didn't drive HIM to ask for a trade

Maybe Ehlers hates playing with Schief? Has anyone considered that? It always seems to be assumed that it's the other way around

You're jumping the shark...

 

[Cypruss]

I think we're quickly approaching a time when we won't have to play hockey games at all... we can just run a mathematical model that will spit out a winner for us based on advanced stats

As long as you can gamble on it, the NHL may be interested

 

[Gordon112358]

This is what is so frustrating about this season, how do you go 52-24-6 for 4th overall in the NHL and have home ice advantage in the 1st round and shit the bed so badly. Some you can blame on coaching but to me every single player needs to have a very long look in the mirror and ask themselves did i give 110% out there and then ask themselves why didn't i? .

Well I suppose the same kinds of questions would have been asked of Boston who won 65 games last year and were unceremoniously dumped in round 1.