Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[DRW204]

Maybe the most concerning part to me is that the Jets defense only produced 24 goals last year, and half of them came from Josh Morrissey, so it's not surprising that his d partners had good metrics.

Dillon-Pionk are a real anomoly because they were a plus pairing with poor XG statistics. I think this can be analysed by the fact that Maurice used them a lot as a shut down pairing behind Lowry's line, who struggled to score last year, until late in the season, and gave up a lot of shots with any combination of Vesalainen, Poganski and Reichel. Add to that nearly 1/4 of Lowry's 13 goals came SH.

The good numbers for Stanley-De Melo are a good reason to keep the big man around. I think there's more goals that can be had from him, Schmdit and PIonk, but De Melo, Dillon, and Samberg won't add a lot of offense. I think if the Jets are relying on Morrissey for goals from the back end it's extremely risky to make him a regular PKer and that plays to Heinola's disadvantage. But he's probably the only guy we have who could generate any kind of offensive output similar to Morrissey, in spite of his 1 career NHL goal to date.

I am hoping that the poor defensive results are an aberation of poor coaching, and performance. If the Jets want to get back to the playoffs it's looking increasingly like they need to do so with a solid 5 man defensive performance, and reduce their shots against, which were among the league's worst (25th in the league), and goals against.

the jets offense from the d group is pretty bad. if they were great defensively i wouldn't mind, but that's not the case. i remember looking at 5v5 gameplay they were middle of the pack in shots, 2nd last in goals, and last in SH%. Whoever is playing the most PP mins likely will get higher point totals, just by virtue with playing with great offensive players (ie: Scheifele, wheeler, Connor). honestly our dmen should probably shooting a bit less overall.

Lowry for the year was heavily negative in GF vs GA. together NST scores those 3 with 188mins together 3GF 6GA while receiving 0.9439 goaltending. Makes sense why they are still negative despite excellent goaltending since Lowry and his line can't finish. while pionk-dillon were on the ice together, the Jets scored actual GF basically as expected, and the goaltending saved more GA than expected which can explain the difference in overall net actuals vs expected. id be looking at them to reduce the rate of chances, moreso than producing more.

we need demelo on the top-pair. he's our best defensive-dman and has shown throughout his career he elevates a pairing regardless of their role, or play-style of the partner. is it harder to find a competent 3rd pair, or a top pair? i think the obvious answer is the latter. if stanley can't hold on a 3rd pair on his own in his draft+7th year, we probably should find someone who can. having him to be paired with our best d-dman to show some semblance of competency is not a good enough reason to keep him around imo it's a good reason to possibly sell-high though.

 

[surixon]

the jets offense from the d group is pretty bad. if they were great defensively i wouldn't mind, but that's not the case. i remember looking at 5v5 gameplay they were middle of the pack in shots, 2nd last in goals, and last in SH%. Whoever is playing the most PP mins likely will get higher point totals, just by virtue with playing with great offensive players (ie: Scheifele, wheeler, Connor). honestly our dmen should probably shooting a bit less overall.

Lowry for the year was heavily negative in GF vs GA. together NST scores those 3 with 188mins together 3GF 6GA while receiving 0.9439 goaltending. while pionk-dillon were on the ice together, the Jets scored actual GF basically as expected, and the goaltending saved more GA than expected which can explain the difference in actuals vs expected. id be looking at them to reduce the rate of chances, moreso than producing more.

View attachment 579521

we need demelo on the top-pair. he's our best defensive-dman and has shown throughout his career he elevates a pairing regardless of their role, or play-style of the partner. is it harder to find a competent 3rd pair, or a top pair? i think the obvious answer is the latter. if stanley can't hold on a 3rd pair on his own in his 7th year pro, we probably should find someone who can. having him to be paired with our best d-dman to show some semblance of competency is not a good enough reason to keep him around imo it's a good reason to possibly sell-high though.

I agree, it should be put up or shut up time for Stanley. If he can't stand on his own on the third pairing in his third year in the league and as you said D plus 7 season then he likely never will. We have other young dmen that have earned the chance to show they can do it.

 

[Buffdog]

I agree, it should be put up or shut up time for Stanley. If he can't stand on his own on the third pairing in his third year in the league and as you said D plus 7 season then he likely never will. We have other young dmen that have earned the chance to show they can do it.

Personally, I think that if we go into the season with the D that we have, it's already too late for Stanley. In my mind Samberg has passed him for the 3rd pairing spot

 

[surixon]

Personally, I think that if we go into the season with the D that we have, it's already too late for Stanley. In my mind Samberg has passed him for the 3rd pairing spot

I agree, I think Samberg will likely win the spot in camp.

 

[Gm0ney]

Cool stats.

Is there a link? It would be interesting to see the top 50 rankings.

This is all from NaturalStatTrick's Defensive Pairings stats:

Defensive Pairs - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[surixon]

This is all from NaturalStatTrick's Defensive Pairings stats:

Defensive Pairs - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Some of those pairings spent next to no time together. Also it was interesting that a number of them were just switching the partner of the elite dmen in the league.

I think when you remove some small sample pairings and the soft matchup third pairings with gokd numbers the JoMo/DeMelo pairing actually looks very respectable in comparison to many other teams top pairings last year.

 

[Gm0ney]

the jets offense from the d group is pretty bad. if they were great defensively i wouldn't mind, but that's not the case. i remember looking at 5v5 gameplay they were middle of the pack in shots, 2nd last in goals, and last in SH%. Whoever is playing the most PP mins likely will get higher point totals, just by virtue with playing with great offensive players (ie: Scheifele, wheeler, Connor). honestly our dmen should probably shooting a bit less overall.

Lowry for the year was heavily negative in GF vs GA. together NST scores those 3 with 188mins together 3GF 6GA while receiving 0.9439 goaltending. Makes sense why they are still negative despite excellent goaltending since Lowry and his line can't finish. while pionk-dillon were on the ice together, the Jets scored actual GF basically as expected, and the goaltending saved more GA than expected which can explain the difference in overall net actuals vs expected. id be looking at them to reduce the rate of chances, moreso than producing more.

View attachment 579521

we need demelo on the top-pair. he's our best defensive-dman and has shown throughout his career he elevates a pairing regardless of their role, or play-style of the partner. is it harder to find a competent 3rd pair, or a top pair? i think the obvious answer is the latter. if stanley can't hold on a 3rd pair on his own in his draft+7th year, we probably should find someone who can. having him to be paired with our best d-dman to show some semblance of competency is not a good enough reason to keep him around imo it's a good reason to possibly sell-high though.

The Jets D ranks pretty well in xGF/60 at 5v5 (700+ TOI). Out of 188 defensemen:

21. Morrissey
37. Dillon
44. DeMelo
64. Schmidt
65. Pionk
102. Stanley

So out of our Top 6, 5 were well above the median (94) and Stanley wasn't far off.

Of course, xG is an on-ice stat. But still, the Jets were pretty good generating chances with their D on the ice. Scoring was a problem, but I don't know if I'd pin that on the D...just a down year, bounces not going their way. The Jets as a team were 23rd in GF/60 at 5v5 last season, but 8th in xGF/60...that's a bit of bad luck as the Jets have traditionally outscored their xGF.

Just to get into this expectations vs. reality a bit more: last year the Jets underscored their 5v5 xGF by the 2nd highest rate of anyone (-0.33 Goals/60). LAK was the only team worse (-0.43) and DAL was 3rd (-0.29), just behind the Jets. 10 out of 32 teams underscored their xGF. The previous season, the Jets outscored xGF by +0.21/60. So that's a swing of over half a goal per 60 minutes. In fact, the Jets have consistently outscored expectations - the last time they didn't was 2015-16.

The real problem is the xGA/60 where the team is a complete tire fire (4 out of 6 Jets D are in the Bottom 25 of defensemen with 700+ TOI). I don't know if it matters much if the individual D actually score any goals themselves at 5v5. Get the pucks down low to Ehlers, Scheifele, Connor, etc. and let them fill the net. A goal's a goal.

Team stats: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Defensive player stats: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Flair Hay]

Personally, I think that if we go into the season with the D that we have, it's already too late for Stanley. In my mind Samberg has passed him for the 3rd pairing spot

He outplayed him last year. Doesnt necessarily mean that will be the case.

There is also the chance that waiver eligibility becomes a deciding factor if the coaches dont see a huge difference...

Aka Samberg and Heinola might be starting on the Moose again

 

[Gm0ney]

Some of those pairings spent next to no time together. Also it was interesting that a number of them were just switching the partner of the elite dmen in the league.

I think when you remove some small sample pairings and the soft matchup third pairings with gokd numbers the JoMo/DeMelo pairing actually looks very respectable in comparison to many other teams top pairings last year.

Yeah I was just using 100+ TOI since that was the OP's comparison.

300+ TOI would approximate it more to the Top 3 pairings for each team...although some teams really mix and match their top D with other partners (E.g. Boston with McAvoy).

At 300+ TOI there are 101 pairings.

35. Morrissey-Demelo
73. Morrissey-Schmidt
99. Dillon-Pionk

So yes, Morrissey-DeMelo, above the median, Dillon-Pionk are just 2 away from the worst pairing to play 300+ minutes together.

When you also consider the Jets poor defensive play and positioning by their forwards, 35th is pretty respectable indeed.

 

[surixon]

Yeah I was just using 100+ TOI since that was the OP's comparison.

300+ TOI would approximate it more to the Top 3 pairings for each team...although some teams really mix and match their top D with other partners (E.g. Boston with McAvoy).

At 300+ TOI there are 101 pairings.

35. Morrissey-Demelo
73. Morrissey-Schmidt
99. Dillon-Pionk

So yes, Morrissey-DeMelo, above the median, Dillon-Pionk are just 2 away from the worst pairing to play 300+ minutes together.

When you also consider the Jets poor defensive play and positioning by their forwards, 35th is pretty respectable indeed.

Yeah, while I'd like a legit top line RD it isn't necessary imo. Morrissey and DeMelo can provide more then enough value as a top pairing. We also have more then enough pieces that we also should have a strong third pairing.

It's the second pairing that is our major issue. Pionk absolutely needs to rebound in a major way or we need to move in another direction for that pairing.

 

[DRW204]

The Jets D ranks pretty well in xGF/60 at 5v5 (700+ TOI). Out of 188 defensemen:

21. Morrissey
37. Dillon
44. DeMelo
64. Schmidt
65. Pionk
102. Stanley

So out of our Top 6, 5 were well above the median (94) and Stanley wasn't far off.

Of course, xG is an on-ice stat. But still, the Jets were pretty good generating chances with their D on the ice. Scoring was a problem, but I don't know if I'd pin that on the D...just a down year, bounces not going their way. The Jets as a team were 23rd in GF/60 at 5v5 last season, but 8th in xGF/60...that's a bit of bad luck as the Jets have traditionally outscored their xGF.

Just to get into this expectations vs. reality a bit more: last year the Jets underscored their 5v5 xGF by the 2nd highest rate of anyone (-0.33 Goals/60). LAK was the only team worse (-0.43) and DAL was 3rd (-0.29), just behind the Jets. 10 out of 32 teams underscored their xGF. The previous season, the Jets outscored xGF by +0.21/60. So that's a swing of over half a goal per 60 minutes. In fact, the Jets have consistently outscored expectations - the last time they didn't was 2015-16.

The real problem is the xGA/60 where the team is a complete tire fire (4 out of 6 Jets D are in the Bottom 25 of defensemen with 700+ TOI). I don't know if it matters much if the individual D actually score any goals themselves at 5v5. Get the pucks down low to Ehlers, Scheifele, Connor, etc. and let them fill the net. A goal's a goal.

Team stats: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Defensive player stats: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

to me that's why xGF for our dmen, or most dmen as a whole (sans the elite offensive or puck-movers which is a handful) i dont think is necessarily the best stat to rate. Fwds account for 80-85% of xGF generated in the league. so if you're playing behind PLD, KC etc. a lot, you'll rate well in generate chances since those guys are tops in the league. reducing chances or xGA, and moving the puck up ice, i think should be moreso at the forefront. reducing chances against inherently produces more chances for

 

[buggs]

I remain curious to see how this D performs when not operating under Maurice/Huddy systems approach. I am expecting improvement through simplicity. If we can get buy in from select forwards it could look surprisingly good. Also expecting concurrent rebound from Helle.

 

[WolfHouse]

I really think that Scheifeles lack of defensive play trickled through the whole roster… we were a better team without him and wheeler

If that’s fixed this year then we should have her better stats from our d core

 

[kylbaz]

We have to throw everything out the window. We've had a head coach with no system or strategy and the worst defense coach in the league for the last how many years.

 

[DRW204]

We have to throw everything out the window. We've had a head coach with no system or strategy and the worst defense coach in the league for the last how many years.

Amazing that they never got canned despite years and years of underwhelming results. Notably the defense coach.

 

[kylbaz]

Amazing that they never got canned despite years and years of underwhelming results. Notably the defense coach.

Loyalty, past connection hirings and the "family" aspect was cool to see with this organization at the beginning but then we also see the negative side of it. Coaches that should have been fired years ago and a head coach thats so aware he should have been let go that he does is a favor and leaves himself.

 

[voyageur]

The Jets D ranks pretty well in xGF/60 at 5v5 (700+ TOI). Out of 188 defensemen:

21. Morrissey
37. Dillon
44. DeMelo
64. Schmidt
65. Pionk
102. Stanley

So out of our Top 6, 5 were well above the median (94) and Stanley wasn't far off.

Of course, xG is an on-ice stat. But still, the Jets were pretty good generating chances with their D on the ice. Scoring was a problem, but I don't know if I'd pin that on the D...just a down year, bounces not going their way. The Jets as a team were 23rd in GF/60 at 5v5 last season, but 8th in xGF/60...that's a bit of bad luck as the Jets have traditionally outscored their xGF.

Just to get into this expectations vs. reality a bit more: last year the Jets underscored their 5v5 xGF by the 2nd highest rate of anyone (-0.33 Goals/60). LAK was the only team worse (-0.43) and DAL was 3rd (-0.29), just behind the Jets. 10 out of 32 teams underscored their xGF. The previous season, the Jets outscored xGF by +0.21/60. So that's a swing of over half a goal per 60 minutes. In fact, the Jets have consistently outscored expectations - the last time they didn't was 2015-16.

The real problem is the xGA/60 where the team is a complete tire fire (4 out of 6 Jets D are in the Bottom 25 of defensemen with 700+ TOI). I don't know if it matters much if the individual D actually score any goals themselves at 5v5. Get the pucks down low to Ehlers, Scheifele, Connor, etc. and let them fill the net. A goal's a goal.

Team stats: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Defensive player stats: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

The problem is that smaller less physical forwards don't tend to win a lot of one on one puck battles, so putting pucks in deep is definitely not the solution, or relies heavily on the centres of this team being strong in puck battles. Having quick forwards who can cut off passes and counteract with speed is more of a style that fits the team.

I don't know enough about the XG stats, but they are shot based no? And this team was badly outshot in many a game. Shots are also not the best indicator of team success, because as a whole this team would bleed shots once they were in the lead playing prevent under Maurice's system. Which requires some analysis.

I do think you need a defense that can score a few goals. 24 as a team seems low, and that's on the back of Morrissey's breakout season. The Jets were getting 33 and 34 out of their d in the better years. One thing I took away from watching Dallas under Bowness, is that their better d, like Heiskanen and Klingberg would get the green light to jump or even lead rushes. This could definitely be an area where Morrissey and Pionk could help. Getting more traffic to the net might get some more goals out of Schmidt and Stanley, who are pretty good shots from the point. Dillon and De Melo should be the top PKers, so they have their role. I'd have Samberg and Pionk as the 2nd unit of PKers to start.

Interesting to see comments that Kovacevic shouldn't pass through waivers. I am not so sure about that, but it is an interesting problem. Given that most of the forwards competing for spots on the Jets bottom line roster spots are waiver eligible, I think there's a decent chance that the Jets start with 8 defensemen on the team this year, with a spot for Kovacevic. It would ease the logjam on the Moose for playing time.

 

[scelaton]

It appears, in retrospect, that the Dillon & Schmidt experiment was a failure. Would have been hard to predict at the time, but is now clear that ~$10M AAV on 2 meh 30+ year-old dmen is not good value.

In Dillon's case he is just preventing younger, cheaper and as-good-or-better LD from advancing. In Schmidt's case, despite his likeability and skill with the puck, he is very poor in the D zone without the puck. And $6M AAV for a third pairing D is nuts.

Not blaming Chevy for trying, but now he needs to move forward with playing the kids and crystalizing whatever AAV he can from those two, whenever he can. Won't be easy.

 

[GaryPoppins]

It appears, in retrospect, that the Dillon & Schmidt experiment was a failure. Would have been hard to predict at the time, but is now clear that ~$10M AAV on 2 meh 30+ year-old dmen is not good value.

In Dillon's case he is just preventing, young and cheap and better LD from advancing. In Schmidt's case, despite his likeability and skill with the puck, he is very poor in the D zone without the puck. And $6M AAV for a third pairing D is nuts.

Not blaming Chevy for trying, but now he needs to move forward with playing the kids and crystalizing whatever AAV he can from those two, whenever he can. Won't be easy.

I think you could have had players playing well above Dillon and Schmidt’s level and the team as a whole still would have struggled defensively.

The scheme, deployment and overall compete just wouldn’t have bread success.

I agree that Dillon is likely the one on the move/out the door but I wouldn’t even be opposed to Stanley being the one shipped out to bring in offensive help. I’d have to imagine he still has solid value given GMs tend to have blinders on when it comes to size.

Time is ticking away, though

 

[voyageur]

It appears, in retrospect, that the Dillon & Schmidt experiment was a failure. Would have been hard to predict at the time, but is now clear that ~$10M AAV on 2 meh 30+ year-old dmen is not good value.

In Dillon's case he is just preventing, young and cheap and better LD from advancing. In Schmidt's case, despite his likeability and skill with the puck, he is very poor in the D zone without the puck. And $6M AAV for a third pairing D is nuts.

Not blaming Chevy for trying, but now he needs to move forward with playing the kids and crystalizing whatever AAV he can from those two, whenever he can. Won't be easy.

That's a real tough one. I think Stastny re-signing last year was contingent on this team improving. Take Stastny out of the lineup and you have a team that looks like the 2019-20 one, having to play over their heads, and simplify their attack to protect a weaker defense.

Dillon at +16 was higher than anyone on the team defensively by a wide margin. Schmidt provides offense, and should be an improvement on Tucker Poolman in every area but the PK. I think there's a spot for Samberg regardless of Dillon being here, and at least we have a guy who will jump in with Lowry in a donnybrook. Is Dillon blocking Stanley? I'm not sure the team is better with Stanley out there, but if it is that's when Dillon becomes expendable. Should the Jets have developed one of their LD into a RD to replace Schmidt? Seems like Ville struggled in that role. Samberg who played his offside in college is better suited. I think Morrissey-Samberg, Heinola-Pionk, Stanley-De Melo could have worked, but if you had said that after a promising 2021 campaign that had the Jets a series away from the Final Four, that the league didn't want apparently, that the Jets should add 2 more rookies to get better on defense, it would have probably not gone over well with the fan base, and surely not in the locker room, that Maurice was still running.

Before being traded to Washington I remember a lot of analytics people were high on Dillon, as a top 4 upgrade on Forbort. I think that there is a chance for a reset for him with a coaching change.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Schmidt was fine every where other than with Stanley it seems. I liked him on the top pair. I can't exactly recall the Schmidt-Dillon pairing but it seemed to have performed well.

And yes clone Demelo lol. Idk why we're subjecting our best dman in everything defense related to 3rd pair mins? I'd want him playing some of the highest mins on the team. Even dating back to his Ottawa days he's shown he elevates a pairing, no matter what their role is or the playstyle of his partner. Samberg and Stanley will be draft+6 and draft+7 dmen they need to handle a third pair by this time imo.

And no this past year they seem to have not.

re: the bolded
I don't think it is right to lump Samberg in with Stanley. He never played 3rd pair. He played 2nd pair with Pionk. He was better in XGA/60 with Pionk than either Schmidt or Dillon with Pionk. Samberg never had time with anyone else to compare.

The clear weakness that shows through is Stanley and to a lesser degree, Pionk. Pionk certainly had an off year. I expect a rebound from him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yup, Pionk dragged down whoever he was with last year. We had a functioning to good top pair all year and a functioning to good third pair all year but our second pair was putridely awful all year. That is going to need to improve if we want to bounce back. That or Pionk needs to be moved to the bottom pairing and given soft opposition.



Schmidt was who I thought we'd get. He's a second pairing puck moving dmen with some issues in his end. Outside of the stretch with Stanley that was exactly what he gave us. I'd be completely fine with a Schmidt/Dillion second pairing next year.

I think our 3rd pairing was worse than that, particularly anytime Stanley was there. Maybe it would be more accurate to say that it was weak any time that DeMelo was NOT there.

I think some people are being overly hard on Pionk. I don't mean about last year. He earned the criticism. But he was good for us the first year, better the 2nd year and really bad last year. He has owned that which makes me optimistic for a rebound this year.

I could see Samberg/Pionk as either 2nd or 3rd pair and Dillon/Schmidt as either 2nd or 3rd, depending on which pairing is playing better at any given time, or even depending on opponents.

 

[Adam da bomb]

That's a real tough one. I think Stastny re-signing last year was contingent on this team improving. Take Stastny out of the lineup and you have a team that looks like the 2019-20 one, having to play over their heads, and simplify their attack to protect a weaker defense.

Dillon at +16 was higher than anyone on the team defensively by a wide margin. Schmidt provides offense, and should be an improvement on Tucker Poolman in every area but the PK. I think there's a spot for Samberg regardless of Dillon being here, and at least we have a guy who will jump in with Lowry in a donnybrook. Is Dillon blocking Stanley? I'm not sure the team is better with Stanley out there, but if it is that's when Dillon becomes expendable. Should the Jets have developed one of their LD into a RD to replace Schmidt? Seems like Ville struggled in that role. Samberg who played his offside in college is better suited. I think Morrissey-Samberg, Heinola-Pionk, Stanley-De Melo could have worked, but if you had said that after a promising 2021 campaign that had the Jets a series away from the Final Four, that the league didn't want apparently, that the Jets should add 2 more rookies to get better on defense, it would have probably not gone over well with the fan base, and surely not in the locker room, that Maurice was still running.

Before being traded to Washington I remember a lot of analytics people were high on Dillon, as a top 4 upgrade on Forbort. I think that there is a chance for a reset for him with a coaching change.

I thought most people considered plus minus a weak stat for measurement.

 

[sipowicz]

I agree, I think Samberg will likely win the spot in camp.

Big Stan had a pretty bad season last year but Samberg didn't exactly live up to all the hype either as did tiny Heiny! Can't say any of them will ever be legit top 4 D men at this point!

 

[LowLefty]

Big Stan had a pretty bad season last year but Samberg didn't exactly live up to all the hype either as did tiny Heiny! Can't say any of them will ever be legit top 4 D men at this point!

Other than JoMo and steady eddy Demelo, they all had rough years LY - some are forgiven, some not - depends on the fan.

I won't be surprised if we see players in a new light when they all get a chance to regroup and work with Bowness -