Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense
- Thread starter voyageur
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Thanks for this. @garret9 does an excellent job explaining his analysis in a balanced way. Stanley needs some resting up and healing time.
I'd also recommend that anyone who thinks Heinola is a soft, easy D to play against and who hasn't seen him play in the A watch him shift by shift in that first -- he's anticipating early, seeing where plays are heading and then he's on pucks fast and getting rid of them quickly, and he doesn't give up on a play. I'd say he's way closer to a developing Spurgeon / prime Pionk / JMo with a mean streak and a terrier-like commitment to digging out pucks than someone like a Shane G or other prototypically "soft" smal D.
It's a whole lot easier to play against a big guy who misses than a smart, smaller, quicker guy who sticks like burrs, can burn you on the carry and who hits nearly every pass.
I'd like to see more of him and Schmidt. It trends continue, then maybe we see a Stanley / Pink or Samberg pairing and Dillon gets moved in the offseason.
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WolfHouse
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Yeah I have watched him a tonne on the Moose, he doesn't have a mean streak imo. He does play a solid game where he doesn't back down physically which should be more then good enough when you add in his other talents.
IDK about that. I have seen him bury the shoulder and elbows and get in a few last jabs a la Pionk on several occasions in the A. Too early to say if or when he brings it to the NHL but he's no shrinking violet.
I'm not saying he's our Buff replacement. I'm pointing out that neither small nor skilled = soft automatically, and in H's case.
Oh he's definitely not soft. I see more JoMo then Pionk but that is fine.
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That would be just fine by me also -- I'm betting that even Dom's model would acknowledge 2 JMos as equalling a single #1 D.
Interestingly, from today's piece by Murat:
When Heinola is himself, he’s a fast-thinking, puck-moving defenceman with a surprisingly chippy streak for a player listed at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds. He makes clean breakout passes and incisive passes in the offensive zone, too, picking apart defences to the tune of 31 points in 54 AHL games.
There's a fair bit more there on the Jets' blue line and the big/little D question, as well as Dubois contract talk.
Breaking down the Jets' depth chart: Strengths, challenges and cap concerns
The Jets remain in the playoff race, but do they have the depth to compete for the Cup over the next few seasons?
That would be just fine by me also -- I'm betting that even Dom's model would acknowledge 2 JMos as equalling a single #1 D.
Interestingly, from today's piece by Murat:
When Heinola is himself, he’s a fast-thinking, puck-moving defenceman with a surprisingly chippy streak for a player listed at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds. He makes clean breakout passes and incisive passes in the offensive zone, too, picking apart defences to the tune of 31 points in 54 AHL games.
There's a fair bit more there on the Jets' blue line and the big/little D question, as well as Dubois contract talk.
Breaking down the Jets' depth chart: Strengths, challenges and cap concerns
The Jets remain in the playoff race, but do they have the depth to compete for the Cup over the next few seasons?theathletic.com
Yeah I definitely think you can win with a defense by committee approach. If you have two legit top pairing guys and a couple good second pairing guys. I think our dcore depends on Heinola getting to that top pairing level and getting Pionk and Samberg to get to good second pairing caliber. DeMelo is also a good second pairing caliber defensive guy.
bit of a cross-post from another thread. but it'll be interesting to follow WPG Jets' D-group under new coach staff.
last year imo
this d group had opportunity to have 3 second pairs. however, for most of the year 2/3s of the pairings were underperforming. Perhaps the personnel got overrated? or the system was really bad, or players not fit for it? not sure, we will uncover some of this under a new staff. Pionk-Dillon did not work that well, and Stanley sans Demelo couldnt handle a 3rd pairing. We do lack high end player(s)though. Just looking at the Central i dont think we would have a single dman that would make sort of a 6-man Central all-star team.
by xGF%, which i know is a commonly used stat to rate a defensive pairing, but idk if it is necessarily the best, but i digress.... this was our d-group ratings at min 100 minutes varying sample sizes though
by just xGA/60 (to adjust for varying TOI)
I am going to bring up Bowness' DAL stats, since the rest of his head-coaching is eons ago. so inheriting a team from Montgomery who seemed to have been the orchestrator of DAL turn from high-offense to defensive slog-fests
Under Montgomery in 18-19
18-19 5v5 rates
xGA: 9th best
GA: 3rd best
from 19-20 till past year 5v5 (19-20 includes 32 games of Montgomery).
xGA: 5th
GA: 2nd
there might be some Montgomery influence but if he can get this team at least top-15 defense, while NOT sacrificing offense (DAL' offense was pretty mediocre to weak under Bowness) this team should probably handedly make the POs, especially considering who is in net. to me, that's a bit of a tall task for an organization that historically been pretty below-average to bad in defensive rating, and Helle has trended down 2 years in a row, but am expecting a bounce-back
i wouldn't mind seeing a top-4 of
Morrissey-Demelo
Dillon-Schmidt
Samberg/Stanley/Heinola-Pionk to start. i think that 3LD spot is up for grabs and Bowness will decide. I don't think Dillon will go anywhere.
last year imo
this d group had opportunity to have 3 second pairs. however, for most of the year 2/3s of the pairings were underperforming. Perhaps the personnel got overrated? or the system was really bad, or players not fit for it? not sure, we will uncover some of this under a new staff. Pionk-Dillon did not work that well, and Stanley sans Demelo couldnt handle a 3rd pairing. We do lack high end player(s)though. Just looking at the Central i dont think we would have a single dman that would make sort of a 6-man Central all-star team.
by xGF%, which i know is a commonly used stat to rate a defensive pairing, but idk if it is necessarily the best, but i digress.... this was our d-group ratings at min 100 minutes varying sample sizes though
by just xGA/60 (to adjust for varying TOI)
I am going to bring up Bowness' DAL stats, since the rest of his head-coaching is eons ago. so inheriting a team from Montgomery who seemed to have been the orchestrator of DAL turn from high-offense to defensive slog-fests
Under Montgomery in 18-19
18-19 5v5 rates
xGA: 9th best
GA: 3rd best
from 19-20 till past year 5v5 (19-20 includes 32 games of Montgomery).
xGA: 5th
GA: 2nd
there might be some Montgomery influence but if he can get this team at least top-15 defense, while NOT sacrificing offense (DAL' offense was pretty mediocre to weak under Bowness) this team should probably handedly make the POs, especially considering who is in net. to me, that's a bit of a tall task for an organization that historically been pretty below-average to bad in defensive rating, and Helle has trended down 2 years in a row, but am expecting a bounce-back
i wouldn't mind seeing a top-4 of
Morrissey-Demelo
Dillon-Schmidt
Samberg/Stanley/Heinola-Pionk to start. i think that 3LD spot is up for grabs and Bowness will decide. I don't think Dillon will go anywhere.
Buffdog
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- Feb 13, 2019
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Thanks for that breakdown. My takeaways are:
1. Clone Demelo
2. Schmidt may have actually performed at a 2nd pairing level despite the eye test
I guess Morrissey and Pionk didn't spend much time together? What would this look like?
Morrissey Pionk
Dillon Schmidt
Samberg Demelo
voyageur
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The Samberg-Pionk numbers surprise me. They really didn't seem that bad when together. I can remember them playing behind Dubois's line, with Perfetti on it, and having some decent shifts. Certainly they seemed better than Stanley-Schmidt from watching. I think it is possible that Dillon-Schmidt surpasses Samberg-Pionk. I also expect Pionk to have a bounce back year. He got his bell rung good by Spezza, and I don't think he was quite as good after.
I think you are right about Dillon, probably pencilled into PK1 with De Melo to start the year.
Schmidt was fine every where other than with Stanley it seems. I liked him on the top pair. I can't exactly recall the Schmidt-Dillon pairing but it seemed to have performed well.
And yes clone Demelo lol. Idk why we're subjecting our best dman in everything defense related to 3rd pair mins? I'd want him playing some of the highest mins on the team. Even dating back to his Ottawa days he's shown he elevates a pairing, no matter what their role is or the playstyle of his partner. Samberg and Stanley will be draft+6 and draft+7 dmen they need to handle a third pair by this time imo.
And no this past year they seem to have not.
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By XGA samberg-pionk were middle of the pack. XGF they were really poor. But I think that's more on the Fwds than the dmen. But ultimately they do not net out well bc of it.
The xGF% range for the league's 325 d-pairings with 100+ TOI at 5v5 is 33.43 to 67.39. Here's how the Jets' pairs rank:
51: Morrissey-DeMelo
98: Dillon-Schmidt
129: Stanley-DMmelo
141: Morrissey-Schmidt
193: Dillon-Pionk
236: Schmidt-Pionk
276: Stanley-Schmidt
301: Samberg-Pionk
308: Dillon-Stanley
9 pairs total: 2 in the Top 100, 4 above the median, 5 below the median, 4 in the Bottom 100.
For xGA/60 the league range is 1.45 to 4.27. Jets rank:
78: Stanley-DeMelo
96: Morrissey-DeMelo
212: Dillon-Schmidt
213: Morrissey-Schmidt
223: Samberg-Pionk
263: Schmidt-Pionk
293: Dillon-Pionk
303: Schmidt-Stanley
310: Dillon-Stanley
2 in the Top 100 - the only 2 above the median. 7 below the median, 4 in the Bottom 100 (almost 5).
I'm not sure Pionk gets enough flak for how terrible he was last season. THIS was what analytics folks expected to be getting back from the Rangers in the Trouba trade.
Overall though, the Jets are just absolutely brutal defensively compared with the rest of the league.
Thanks for the league wide ranking. Jeez Dillon and Stanley together were putrid lol.
I echo your sentiments on pionk. And I think Schmidt gets most of the flak but pionk was worse. Schmidt also has a track record of some pretty good play, and really other than being paired with Stanley, was pretty solid. Look at Dillon with Stanley too. Pionk was excellent in the Canadian Division year, a year with anomoly set of opponents and schedule. but the other two years it seems he rates closer to the NYR season. That was his contract year too
Yup, Pionk dragged down whoever he was with last year. We had a functioning to good top pair all year and a functioning to good third pair all year but our second pair was putridely awful all year. That is going to need to improve if we want to bounce back. That or Pionk needs to be moved to the bottom pairing and given soft opposition.
Thanks for the league wide ranking. Jeez Dillon and Stanley together were putrid lol.
I echo your sentiments on pionk. And I think Schmidt gets most of the flak but pionk was worse. Schmidt also has a track record of some pretty good play, and really other than being paired with Stanley, was pretty solid. Look at Dillon with Stanley too. Pionk was excellent in the Canadian Division year, a year with anomoly set of opponents and schedule. but the other two years it seems he rates closer to the NYR season. That was his contract year too
Schmidt was who I thought we'd get. He's a second pairing puck moving dmen with some issues in his end. Outside of the stretch with Stanley that was exactly what he gave us. I'd be completely fine with a Schmidt/Dillion second pairing next year.
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sipowicz
The thrill is gone
- Mar 16, 2011
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Expecting a big bounce back year from Pionk who admitted that he played like shet last season!
will be interesting to see which one of our #7 D men in StanleTree, Poolberg, tiny Heiny, Kovachunk or Jhisolm gets to play!
will be interesting to see which one of our #7 D men in StanleTree, Poolberg, tiny Heiny, Kovachunk or Jhisolm gets to play!
nobody imp0rtant
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- May 23, 2018
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What, no Sip name for Pionk? Come on, man. If ever there was name built to be mocked, it's Pionk.
Buffdog
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voyageur
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Maybe the most concerning part to me is that the Jets defense only produced 24 goals last year, and half of them came from Josh Morrissey, so it's not surprising that his d partners had good metrics.
Dillon-Pionk are a real anomoly because they were a plus pairing with poor XG statistics. I think this can be analysed by the fact that Maurice used them a lot as a shut down pairing behind Lowry's line, who struggled to score last year, until late in the season, and gave up a lot of shots with any combination of Vesalainen, Poganski and Reichel. Add to that nearly 1/4 of Lowry's 13 goals came SH.
The good numbers for Stanley-De Melo are a good reason to keep the big man around. I think there's more goals that can be had from him, Schmdit and PIonk, but De Melo, Dillon, and Samberg won't add a lot of offense. I think if the Jets are relying on Morrissey for goals from the back end it's extremely risky to make him a regular PKer and that plays to Heinola's disadvantage. But he's probably the only guy we have who could generate any kind of offensive output similar to Morrissey, in spite of his 1 career NHL goal to date.
I am hoping that the poor defensive results are an aberation of poor coaching, and performance. If the Jets want to get back to the playoffs it's looking increasingly like they need to do so with a solid 5 man defensive performance, and reduce their shots against, which were among the league's worst (25th in the league), and goals against.
sipowicz
The thrill is gone
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I would throw in that we need our forwards to be better at defending too. Get the 5 man structure right and lets see everyone executing their role in keeping the puck out of our zone and especially out of our net.
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