Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[JetsFan815]

He wasn't in the doghouse. He was supporting a player with very little experience. Once Stanley earned some trust from the staff, they moved Demelo back to his usual spot, hopefully to prop up Morrissey.

I think he was definitely in the doghouse. Maurice played literally everyone else including Beau/Poolman/Niku on that top pairing and never played DeMelo there after the first 3 games. The fact that he would played even Niku who Mo is no fan of in that role over demelo indicates to me something was up.

 

[Jet]

You are certainly entitled to your own opinion.

I'm just asking because we don't have any real world nhl proof yet. He's got a heavy shot, but I think he's just concerned with playing very safe right now, which he should be doing.

Poolman has been quite active at times offensively, id give him the edge

 

[Jet]

I think he was definitely in the doghouse. Maurice played literally everyone else including Beau/Poolman/Niku on that top pairing and never played DeMelo there after the first 3 games. The fact that he would played even Niku who Mo is no fan of in that role over demelo indicates to me something was up.

Yeah, he was trying to pair a strong d with a weaker d. It was pretty obvious, I think he even mentioned it. Unfortunately, Morrissey isn't playing well enough to succeed in the mentor role

 

[Jet]

So there are no viable options other than Pionk , bort, and mo so play all the other guys and keep them fresher.
Also simply beautiful defence of Demelo just a masterpiece.

Well, I mean if you look at demelos stats, he's kind of our best defensive defenseman, so yeah.

 

[Duke749]

So there are no viable options other than Pionk , bort, and mo so play all the other guys and keep them fresher.
Also simply beautiful defence of Demelo just a masterpiece.

 

[Whileee]

With the recent swap of D pairs, the Jets now have 3 pairs basically at or above 50% xGF.

Morrissey-DeMelo 50
Forbort-Pionk 52
Stanley-Poolman 60

 

[Duke749]

With the recent swap of D pairs, the Jets now have 3 pairs basically at or above 50% xGF.

Morrissey-DeMelo 50
Forbort-Pionk 52
Stanley-Poolman 60

I find the way Poolman plays vs the way Stanley plays very goofy. Pool always seems erratic while Stanley is calm.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ya. It's really weird but from my analysis, watching, etc. Morrissey is the largest issue for the Jets.

Pionk looks like he can be the guy on a top4 pairing if he's given the right partner. I think he's meshed well with Forbort, which is a good sign as I think Samberg's top end is a much better Forbort.

So then you have one more top 4 pairing you need to figure out. Morrissey-DeMelo is fine to get into the POs in the ND or be a fringe PO team most seasons, especially with Jets strong Fs and Gs, but you need better there if you want to truly contend. DeMelo has looked to be the stronger of the two, although he's also the one that moves to softer mins when they are split, not the other way around.

I think DeMelo can be the guy for a pairing, but depends on the quality of the other top4 pairing and not sure that's the JEts. Forbort-Pionk, I don't think so. Samberg-Pionk, maybe but that's a lot of guess work.

Looking at both chemistry, microstats, and quality, I think Heinola actually projects as a solid partner for DeMelo.

If Heinola can be the stronger of the Heinola-DeMelo pairing, and Samberg an upgrade on Forbort, then you have a decent top 4 that can be placed in most situations: Heinola-DeMelo and Samberg-Pionk.

There's three issues with that:
1) You are dependent on the IFs with Samberg's and Heinola's development.
2) What do you do with Morrissey then?
3) There's nothing there in the short run as the Jets seem content letting Samberg and Heinola perculate in the AHL.

Maybe placing Morrissey on the 3rd pairing with everyone healthy will help him get back to his old self. I don't think Poolman or Stanley is the guy for him on the third pair, and definitely not Beaulieu. I think you need someone who likes to carry the puck more than Morrissey. He's fine at doing it but it seems he's done better when he's had more assertive guys like Trouba and Byfuglien, and even Myers to some degree.

Given how injuries work in the NHL, your 5th best guy plays top4 mins almost as much as they do on the 3rd pair. And Morrissey is a guy that can play PP and PK, but I think I'd lean Heinola and Pionk on the PP over Morrissey.

So what's happened to Morrissey? I know the numbers don't look good, but what has changed in his play leading to that? Is it decision making? Assertiveness? Physicality? Something else?

 

[boydkc]

If Savard comes cheap enough...
JMo DD
Heinola Pionk
Forbort Savard
We would have Poolman, Stanley etc... for depth...switch Heinola/Forbort?

I think you will Samberg before Heinola.

JMO, Savard
Forbort,Pionk
Samberg,Demelo

Samberg and Demelo in my opinion might be the best pair. Forbert and Pionk won’t be broken up yet.

next Season Forbort, Beaulieu not resigned and Stanley expansion draft gone.

Then Heinola comes in.

 

[bob77]

Another consideration is that statistical measures of performance based on stochastic constructs (like expected goals) are sometimes hard to reconcile with rare events that are discrete (like goals), contributing to game outcomes that are also discrete. If games were determined by the xG winner, then it would be easier to link players' shot metrics to their contribution to a win or loss. But the reality is that a mistake by a player that leads to a goal can be much more consequential in terms of game outcome than is measured by shot metrics. As an example, the Jets had better shot metrics than the Habs a few games ago, but everyone knows that free pizzas from Copp and Pionk and Morrissey led directly to goals and the game outcome.

Now, some of those events are captured in expected goals measures, but they very often aren't. As an example, last night McDavid scored two goals on miscues by a Jets' D. According to Naturalstattrick, McDavid's total individual expected goals at 5v5 was 0.23. He scored 2 goals in a 2-1 game. That makes it seem that the Jets did a better job than they did, because we know he's lethal with a clear path to the net, and it's a big problem if your D allows it. So, how do we assess the performance of Forbort? His shot metrics were fine, and his aggressive pinching helped the Jets generate more zone time and shot attempts. But he also made a poor decision on a pinch and McDavid scored the winning goal.

I think this is one of the reasons that coaches and players sometimes are at odds with data analysts. They think of individual matchups and goals and ultimately game outcomes, which magnifies consequential events and diminishes a focus on statistics like shot attempt share and overall expected goals. Any coach would happily trade 0.23 expected goals in shot metrics for two clear breaks by McDavid.

Ah, a stats guy that understands Hockey is a game of mistakes. Kind of like a really good baseball pitcher sometimes makes a mistake and hangs a curve ball. Personally, so many of these stats are absolutely meaningless in the bigger picture.

 

[Jet]

Another consideration is that statistical measures of performance based on stochastic constructs (like expected goals) are sometimes hard to reconcile with rare events that are discrete (like goals), contributing to game outcomes that are also discrete. If games were determined by the xG winner, then it would be easier to link players' shot metrics to their contribution to a win or loss. But the reality is that a mistake by a player that leads to a goal can be much more consequential in terms of game outcome than is measured by shot metrics. As an example, the Jets had better shot metrics than the Habs a few games ago, but everyone knows that free pizzas from Copp and Pionk and Morrissey led directly to goals and the game outcome.

Now, some of those events are captured in expected goals measures, but they very often aren't. As an example, last night McDavid scored two goals on miscues by a Jets' D. According to Naturalstattrick, McDavid's total individual expected goals at 5v5 was 0.23. He scored 2 goals in a 2-1 game. That makes it seem that the Jets did a better job than they did, because we know he's lethal with a clear path to the net, and it's a big problem if your D allows it. So, how do we assess the performance of Forbort? His shot metrics were fine, and his aggressive pinching helped the Jets generate more zone time and shot attempts. But he also made a poor decision on a pinch and McDavid scored the winning goal.

I think this is one of the reasons that coaches and players sometimes are at odds with data analysts. They think of individual matchups and goals and ultimately game outcomes, which magnifies consequential events and diminishes a focus on statistics like shot attempt share and overall expected goals. Any coach would happily trade 0.23 expected goals in shot metrics for two clear breaks by McDavid.

Such a great post.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

I have different take on the solution for D woes. I’m a fan of balancing RH and LH for all pairings. Takes an exceptional D man to play his offside and sometimes makes them look worse than they actually when forcing the LD to play right side
We have too many LD in our system. I rather give Nogier a chance or maybe bring back Postma to simplify the back end game. If Poolman/DeMelo/Pionk go down I rather keep the LHD on their strong side and play RHD

 

[Hunter368]

Chevy needs to improve that D before we can contend for division title, nevermind the cup. Internally or externally, make it happen.

 

[Heldig]

The cost is too much given the expansion draft. One step forward and 2 back.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Giving up our 1st when we might fail to make the playoffs is a mistake.

 

[voyageur]

With the recent swap of D pairs, the Jets now have 3 pairs basically at or above 50% xGF.

Morrissey-DeMelo 50
Forbort-Pionk 52
Stanley-Poolman 60

Conversely the Jets have lost 4 of 6 since Beaulieu was knocked out of the lineup.

 

[LowLefty]

Conversely the Jets have lost 4 of 6 since Beaulieu was knocked out of the lineup.

Maurice will pick up on that stat - count on it.

 

[garret9]

Conversely the Jets have lost 4 of 6 since Beaulieu was knocked out of the lineup.

Obviously having Beaulieu on the bench was improving the Jets goal differential while he was there.

 

[FonRiesen]

Obviously having Beaulieu on the bench was improving the Jets goal differential while he was there.

Maurice likes it when players 'say the right things on the bench'. A la Hendricks.

 

[garret9]

Me: Siri? Who is the one and only Jet defender with both a positive goal and xgoal differential?
Siri: Him

 

[voyageur]

Obviously having Beaulieu on the bench was improving the Jets goal differential while he was there.

If you take away the blowout game against Montreal where Beaulieu was -4 or 5, he was in the same range of mediocrity in goal differential as most of the Jets d-men. Just giving up more shots against.

But he also played more minutes and less protected minutes.

Stanley is averaging 5 minutes a game less, being protected with Poolman. Well those 5 minutes have to go somewhere, and if you split them between Morrissey and Forbort well you may start to overplay guys into making mistakes.

Then there is the PK minutes Beaulieu took that Morrissey is now eating up, so the management of ice time might be a factor in results. Subtle variables?

Why Stanley doesn't play more? Probably has to do with Poolman right now. If you go back to Stanley-De Melo I think you have a trustworthy 3rd pairing. But there's still that top pairing role to fill, and I am not convinced De Melo is a top 4 pairing d-man. His effectiveness has mostly been 3rd pairing to date, in goal differential.

 

[Zhamnov10]

Get Seth Jones from Columbus for
Morrissey,Perfetti and Vesalainen.

Heinola-Jones
Samberg-Pionk
Stanley-Demelo/Poolman

 

[garret9]

If you take away the blowout game against Montreal where Beaulieu was -4 or 5, he was in the same range of mediocrity in goal differential as most of the Jets d-men. Just giving up more shots against.

But he also played more minutes and less protected minutes.

Stanley is averaging 5 minutes a game less, being protected with Poolman. Well those 5 minutes have to go somewhere, and if you split them between Morrissey and Forbort well you may start to overplay guys into making mistakes.

Then there is the PK minutes Beaulieu took that Morrissey is now eating up, so the management of ice time might be a factor in results. Subtle variables?

Why Stanley doesn't play more? Probably has to do with Poolman right now. If you go back to Stanley-De Melo I think you have a trustworthy 3rd pairing. But there's still that top pairing role to fill, and I am not convinced De Melo is a top 4 pairing d-man. His effectiveness has mostly been 3rd pairing to date, in goal differential.

Jets have controlled 39% of goals of the goals with Beaulieu on the ice (13 GF, 20 GA). When he was on the bench the Jets controlled 55% of the goals.

Beaulieu at 5v5
Team worst: goal differential
2nd worst (Morrissey worst): shots on net, Fenwick, Corsi, and Expected Goal +/-

When you account for ice time:
2nd worst (Niku): goal, shot +/-
3rd worst (Niku & Morrissey): all the rest

When you look at how their linemates do with them vs away from them:
2nd worst (Niku): goals +/-
3rd worst (Niku & Morrissey): all the rest

When you account for ice time, usage, protection, and other factors:
Team worst: goal +/-
2nd worst (Morrissey): xGoals and Corsi +/-

 

[Whileee]

Maurice going back to Morrissey-Poolman???

He says it's about "match-ups". Seriously, why would he want two third pairs to match up with the Canucks?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Well thankfully he doesn't have Beaulieu to put back into the lineup

Just be thankful for that because he would