Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Mortimer Snerd]

I guess we're kind of going round and round, but right now Maurice might get to watch a Moose game on an off night. So he's not really aware of what Samberg is doing. And I am sure he is more concerned with preparing his team for his opponents. The guys that would be providing the info on the AHL players is Zinger in particular, reporting to Chevy, and discussing with Maurice, based on what he has seen of these players. I don't think Maurice makes that call though, without the info from our scouts reporting to Chevy, is what I am trying to say.

I suspect Maurice also has the occasional conversation with scouts - but probably talks to Pascal quite often. Vincent IS the scout of the Moose.

But the conversations between Maurice and Chevy aren't short, simple one liners out of the blue. They talk often and almost certainly discuss all kinds of possibilities over time. At no point does Maurice demand a Samberg or a Heinola. At some point he would indicate that he would like to see one of them. Chevy would indicate that he would look into it. A move here and a move there and its done.

 

[AlaskaJet]

I suspect Maurice also has the occasional conversation with scouts - but probably talks to Pascal quite often. Vincent IS the scout of the Moose.

But the conversations between Maurice and Chevy aren't short, simple one liners out of the blue. They talk often and almost certainly discuss all kinds of possibilities over time. At no point does Maurice demand a Samberg or a Heinola. At some point he would indicate that he would like to see one of them. Chevy would indicate that he would look into it. A move here and a move there and its done.

You would think so! And I’m on my knees praying!

 

[jokesondee]

Backend needs help. Big time. Not going anywhere in the playoffs with this D. Hell, one extended Hellebuyck slump/scoring drought and we might find ourselves outside the playoff line. Get on the phone Chevy.

 

[rehf]

Backend needs help. Big time. Not going anywhere in the playoffs with this D. Hell, one extended Hellebuyck slump/scoring drought and we might find ourselves outside the playoff line. Get on the phone Chevy.

I honestly do think Chevy is looking, I'm in the party that his job is 100x harder than other GMs due to Winnipeg being an undesirable place to play and it just takes the right kind of deals to get stuff done. NTC and NMCs really screw us over.

 

[sipowicz]

Jets are going to need to give up a #1 pick and one of either Copp or Lowry and a throw in like a Niku to get anything close to a top 4 D man!

But they need to do it ASAP or this season will be another wasted one.

 

[Truenorthducky]

Jets are going to need to give up a #1 pick and one of either Copp or Lowry and a throw in like a Niku to get anything close to a top 4 D man!

But they need to do it ASAP or this season will be another wasted one.

It really depends on the market as there are many factors that will play into the price this season for rentals or players with short term. There are some teams that are right close to the playoff line and may not be willing to sell off all those assets and not make the playoffs. Some of the contenders don’t have the Space as well. There is no way the Jets are going to be giving up cop or Lowry plus a first. It might come down to obviously a first and maybe a Ves or Sammy. I think Chevy will make a play for Savard. In my opinion I don’t think he would be worth more than giving up at first and Niku. Savard is also a UFA, so if Columbus is nowhere near the playoff line, they have no choice to deal him which could lower the asking price.

 

[voyageur]

It really depends on the market as there are many factors that will play into the price this season for rentals or players with short term. There are some teams that are right close to the playoff line and may not be willing to sell off all those assets and not make the playoffs. Some of the contenders don’t have the Space as well. There is no way the Jets are going to be giving up cop or Lowry plus a first. It might come down to obviously a first and maybe a Ves or Sammy. I think Chevy will make a play for Savard. In my opinion I don’t think he would be worth more than giving up at first and Niku. Savard is also a UFA, so if Columbus is nowhere near the playoff line, they have no choice to deal him which could lower the asking price.

I don't see why the Jets should be trading 1sts. This is a strong team, with some holes, no worse than any other team in the North. Savard makes sense because he addresses the right side. Where depth is thin, and has required defenseman to struggle on their offsides when injury has beset us. I don't think he comes at a price of more than a 2nd + Niku.

Trading for Ekholm would be a serious pitch, that would ensure we are in contention, but the move essentially changes nothing on our right side, unless you go with something like Forbort-Pionk, Morrissey-DeMelo, Ekholm-Heinola.

Then you have to factor potentially losing De Melo in the expansion draft, or having to trade more assets to protect him.

It's a tough decision for Chevy. If the goal is to win in this window, before players age out or move on, then maybe it's go big or go home.

 

[Romang67]

Trading away first round picks at this point with the current roster and the current coach would be a massive mistake. We have players who potentially could plug some of the holes in the pipeline. We have very little in terms of promising prospects.

If we start gambling with 1sts because our coach refuses to try to plug holes with what we have, we're liable to lose out on good prospects. Let's not.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Trading away first round picks at this point with the current roster and the current coach would be a massive mistake. We have players who potentially could plug some of the holes in the pipeline. We have very little in terms of promising prospects.

If we start gambling with 1sts because our coach refuses to try to plug holes with what we have, we're liable to lose out on good prospects. Let's not.

Yeah, we're a lot more than a Mathias Ekholm away from winning the cup.

Stay the course, continue building and for f***s sake Paul use your young and improving defensemen please.

 

[Whileee]

Once PLD really gets rolling, and there are encouraging signs, I think adding a top D like Ekholm might make the Jets legit cup contenders.

 

[Boonk]

Save that 1st pick and if we suck shit enough draft Brandt Clarke or Corson Ceulemans

 

[voyageur]

Yeah, we're a lot more than a Mathias Ekholm away from winning the cup.

Stay the course, continue building and for f***s sake Paul use your young and improving defensemen please.

I don't necessarily think that's true. Ekholm would be exactly the kind of player I'd want beside Heinola, he plays a pretty mistake free and physical defensive game. He'll also eat up the PK minutes. Maybe you go Ekholm-De Melo, Forbort-Pionk in the rotation, and Morrissey as an alternate.

Having 3 strong pairings on d would be a game changer, like 2017-18.

There's no reason to believe that either Heinola or Samberg will have a major impact without improving the pieces around them.


Nashville is an organization that is in sell mode, trying to mitigate their losses, as a small market, without deep pockets.

Getting a player of Ekholm's caliber is going all in, and there's lots of reason to believe the Jets can win the North.

I'll say as a devil's advocate the time to trade a 1st is when it's in the 25-32 range. Especially in what could be a difficult draft year to assess.

 

[Truenorthducky]

NHLJets at Nationwide tonight for #CBJ /Panthers. AGM Larry Simmons is one of them. About a month until the trade deadline.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

NHLJets at Nationwide tonight for #CBJ /Panthers. AGM Larry Simmons is one of them. About a month until the trade deadline.

Maybe we’re trading for
Laine!!

 

[RustyCat]

I have to wonder if the defense structure plan from the Jets is to move away from the traditional model of 1d/2d, 3d/4d, 5d/6d & 7d (press box) to a defence corps that is only a mix of 2d, 3d, & 4d players. None of the players are lights-out superstars but all seem to be pretty sound defensively (save Beaulieu) and work to compliment the high powered offence.

 

[garret9]

Update on model results...

EW RAPM xG and Corsi (in xG order):

Player	xG±/60	C±/60
Neal Pionk	0.199	2.78
Dylan DeMelo	0.073	0.36
Sami Niku	-0.039	-2.23
Logan Stanley	-0.046	0.31
Tucker Poolman	-0.093	-1.26
Derek Forbort	-0.132	-0.99
Nathan Beaulieu	-0.245	-3.44
Josh Morrissey	-0.251	-4.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And HockeyViz Isolated Impact:

Player	Off	Def	Diff
Dylan DeMelo	6.3	-4.1	10.4
Neal Pionk	2.8	-1.6	4.4
Derek Forbort	-6.3	-3.9	-2.4
Logan Stanley	-1.2	2.9	-4.1
Tucker Poolman	-7.2	3.5	-10.7
Nathan Beaulieu	-6.7	4.4	-11.1
Josh Morrissey	-2.6	8.6	-11.2
Sami Niku	-8.5	10.6	-19.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The later uses last year as a prior at the start of the season (although we are moving at the point where past season isn't having a huge impact anymore).


Some thoughts:

1) No doubt that DeMelo and Pionk are the two tredding above water. They are the two driving success from the back end. Jets need more help than that.

2) Forbort is what he is. Kills offense on both sides. There's utility for those types. It would be better if the difference was + and you probably don't want him as a top4 regular in the long run but he can be useful on a team with better top end than the Jets have.

3) Niku isn't struggling as bad as past years, but with 2 really bad years and this year just being sorta bad... it isn't much for promise.

4) Stanley has been sheltered and a negative, but he's a 1st year defender. Maybe he can be a fringe top4 guy, or maybe he'll just be a 3rd pairing guy. But, at least he doesn't look like the worst guy.

5) Poolman is not a top4 pairing guy.

6) Morrissey how much you've struggled. I know there's a lot of excuses out there for him, but if he's as good as many think he is he may struggle in particular usages but I still think he wouldn't be struggling as much as he currently is.

Jets still look like a team that has:
2-3 2nd pairing guys (Pionk, DeMelo, Morrissey IF he can bounce back to old him)
3 3rd pairing guys (Forbort, Stanley, Poolman)
2 pressboxers (Niku, Beaulieu)

Team needs a top pair.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Update on model results...

EW RAPM xG and Corsi (in xG order):

Player	xG±/60	C±/60
Neal Pionk	0.199	2.78
Dylan DeMelo	0.073	0.36
Sami Niku	-0.039	-2.23
Logan Stanley	-0.046	0.31
Tucker Poolman	-0.093	-1.26
Derek Forbort	-0.132	-0.99
Nathan Beaulieu	-0.245	-3.44
Josh Morrissey	-0.251	-4.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And HockeyViz Isolated Impact:

Player	Off	Def	Diff
Dylan DeMelo	6.3	-4.1	10.4
Neal Pionk	2.8	-1.6	4.4
Derek Forbort	-6.3	-3.9	-2.4
Logan Stanley	-1.2	2.9	-4.1
Tucker Poolman	-7.2	3.5	-10.7
Nathan Beaulieu	-6.7	4.4	-11.1
Josh Morrissey	-2.6	8.6	-11.2
Sami Niku	-8.5	10.6	-19.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The later uses last year as a prior at the start of the season (although we are moving at the point where past season isn't having a huge impact anymore).


Some thoughts:

1) No doubt that DeMelo and Pionk are the two tredding above water. They are the two driving success from the back end. Jets need more help than that.

2) Forbort is what he is. Kills offense on both sides. There's utility for those types. It would be better if the difference was + and you probably don't want him as a top4 regular in the long run but he can be useful on a team with better top end than the Jets have.

3) Niku isn't struggling as bad as past years, but with 2 really bad years and this year just being sorta bad... it isn't much for promise.

4) Stanley has been sheltered and a negative, but he's a 1st year defender. Maybe he can be a fringe top4 guy, or maybe he'll just be a 3rd pairing guy. But, at least he doesn't look like the worst guy.

5) Poolman is not a top4 pairing guy.

6) Morrissey how much you've struggled. I know there's a lot of excuses out there for him, but if he's as good as many think he is he may struggle in particular usages but I still think he wouldn't be struggling as much as he currently is.

Jets still look like a team that has:
2-3 2nd pairing guys (Pionk, DeMelo, Morrissey IF he can bounce back to old him)
3 3rd pairing guys (Forbort, Stanley, Poolman)
2 pressboxers (Niku, Beaulieu)

Team needs a top pair.

Honest question - does anyone in the North Division actually have a legit top pairing on D...?

Calgary and Montreal?

 

[Whileee]

Update on model results...

EW RAPM xG and Corsi (in xG order):

Player	xG±/60	C±/60
Neal Pionk	0.199	2.78
Dylan DeMelo	0.073	0.36
Sami Niku	-0.039	-2.23
Logan Stanley	-0.046	0.31
Tucker Poolman	-0.093	-1.26
Derek Forbort	-0.132	-0.99
Nathan Beaulieu	-0.245	-3.44
Josh Morrissey	-0.251	-4.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And HockeyViz Isolated Impact:

Player	Off	Def	Diff
Dylan DeMelo	6.3	-4.1	10.4
Neal Pionk	2.8	-1.6	4.4
Derek Forbort	-6.3	-3.9	-2.4
Logan Stanley	-1.2	2.9	-4.1
Tucker Poolman	-7.2	3.5	-10.7
Nathan Beaulieu	-6.7	4.4	-11.1
Josh Morrissey	-2.6	8.6	-11.2
Sami Niku	-8.5	10.6	-19.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The later uses last year as a prior at the start of the season (although we are moving at the point where past season isn't having a huge impact anymore).


Some thoughts:

1) No doubt that DeMelo and Pionk are the two tredding above water. They are the two driving success from the back end. Jets need more help than that.

2) Forbort is what he is. Kills offense on both sides. There's utility for those types. It would be better if the difference was + and you probably don't want him as a top4 regular in the long run but he can be useful on a team with better top end than the Jets have.

3) Niku isn't struggling as bad as past years, but with 2 really bad years and this year just being sorta bad... it isn't much for promise.

4) Stanley has been sheltered and a negative, but he's a 1st year defender. Maybe he can be a fringe top4 guy, or maybe he'll just be a 3rd pairing guy. But, at least he doesn't look like the worst guy.

5) Poolman is not a top4 pairing guy.

6) Morrissey how much you've struggled. I know there's a lot of excuses out there for him, but if he's as good as many think he is he may struggle in particular usages but I still think he wouldn't be struggling as much as he currently is.

Jets still look like a team that has:
2-3 2nd pairing guys (Pionk, DeMelo, Morrissey IF he can bounce back to old him)
3 3rd pairing guys (Forbort, Stanley, Poolman)
2 pressboxers (Niku, Beaulieu)

Team needs a top pair.

Pionk is playing more like a top pair D this season, in my view. But certainly a strong #3 D.

Morrissey is the big fly in the ointment. He's a big-minute D with really bad results. I'm worried. I don't think it's all just context. Since his injury, he just hasn't been the same. I doubt that it's lingering effects of the injury per se, but I wonder if it changed how he plays. It almost seems as though he is playing timidly, the way he did when he first tried to make the Jets' roster. Maybe part of the passivity isn't physical, but more related to his role and partnerships.

Whatever the case, unless Morrissey improves, the Jets aren't going to have the sort of D that a real contender needs.

 

[garret9]

Honest question - does anyone in the North Division actually have a legit top pairing on D...?

Calgary and Montreal?

Depends on definition of top pairing guy.
My definition here isn't what I would normally use, so that's really my fault. I just mean a guy that can be the driver of the pairing in tough mins.

EDM: Nurse is having a good season results wise but he's been fairly stappled to McDavid so there may be some conflation there.
CGY: Is more by solid comittee than having top end.
MTL: Petry has evolved into that kind of guy, and Weber is still a fringe guy there.
OTT: Chabot has been good historically. This season is a bit of a gong show with them.
TOR: Rielley is all over the place and overrated but has his uses, and Holl and Muzzin can be complimentary piece to a top pair defensively. Ultimately they are flawed and not do-it-all types but still useful guys.
VAN: Scmidt I think is really good. Hughes has promise.
WPG: Pionk has been there this year so maybe he develops into a full on guy. I think part of it is chemistry with Forbort even if Forbort's overall quality level is low.

So the answer is... maybe.
I mean I'd put Pionk in top 10 for ND for defense, but it's definitely a division lacking in that position.

 

[garret9]

Pionk is playing more like a top pair D this season, in my view. But certainly a strong #3 D.

Morrissey is the big fly in the ointment. He's a big-minute D with really bad results. I'm worried. I don't think it's all just context. Since his injury, he just hasn't been the same. I doubt that it's lingering effects of the injury per se, but I wonder if it changed how he plays. It almost seems as though he is playing timidly, the way he did when he first tried to make the Jets' roster. Maybe part of the passivity isn't physical, but more related to his role and partnerships.

Whatever the case, unless Morrissey improves, the Jets aren't going to have the sort of D that a real contender needs.

Ya. It's really weird but from my analysis, watching, etc. Morrissey is the largest issue for the Jets.

Pionk looks like he can be the guy on a top4 pairing if he's given the right partner. I think he's meshed well with Forbort, which is a good sign as I think Samberg's top end is a much better Forbort.

So then you have one more top 4 pairing you need to figure out. Morrissey-DeMelo is fine to get into the POs in the ND or be a fringe PO team most seasons, especially with Jets strong Fs and Gs, but you need better there if you want to truly contend. DeMelo has looked to be the stronger of the two, although he's also the one that moves to softer mins when they are split, not the other way around.

I think DeMelo can be the guy for a pairing, but depends on the quality of the other top4 pairing and not sure that's the JEts. Forbort-Pionk, I don't think so. Samberg-Pionk, maybe but that's a lot of guess work.

Looking at both chemistry, microstats, and quality, I think Heinola actually projects as a solid partner for DeMelo.

If Heinola can be the stronger of the Heinola-DeMelo pairing, and Samberg an upgrade on Forbort, then you have a decent top 4 that can be placed in most situations: Heinola-DeMelo and Samberg-Pionk.

There's three issues with that:
1) You are dependent on the IFs with Samberg's and Heinola's development.
2) What do you do with Morrissey then?
3) There's nothing there in the short run as the Jets seem content letting Samberg and Heinola perculate in the AHL.

Maybe placing Morrissey on the 3rd pairing with everyone healthy will help him get back to his old self. I don't think Poolman or Stanley is the guy for him on the third pair, and definitely not Beaulieu. I think you need someone who likes to carry the puck more than Morrissey. He's fine at doing it but it seems he's done better when he's had more assertive guys like Trouba and Byfuglien, and even Myers to some degree.

Given how injuries work in the NHL, your 5th best guy plays top4 mins almost as much as they do on the 3rd pair. And Morrissey is a guy that can play PP and PK, but I think I'd lean Heinola and Pionk on the PP over Morrissey.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Depends on definition of top pairing guy.
My definition here isn't what I would normally use, so that's really my fault. I just mean a guy that can be the driver of the pairing in tough mins.

EDM: Nurse is having a good season results wise but he's been fairly stappled to McDavid so there may be some conflation there.
CGY: Is more by solid comittee than having top end.
MTL: Petry has evolved into that kind of guy, and Weber is still a fringe guy there.
OTT: Chabot has been good historically. This season is a bit of a gong show with them.
TOR: Rielley is all over the place and overrated but has his uses, and Holl and Muzzin can be complimentary piece to a top pair defensively. Ultimately they are flawed and not do-it-all types but still useful guys.
VAN: Scmidt I think is really good. Hughes has promise.
WPG: Pionk has been there this year so maybe he develops into a full on guy. I think part of it is chemistry with Forbort even if Forbort's overall quality level is low.

So the answer is... maybe.
I mean I'd put Pionk in top 10 for ND for defense, but it's definitely a division lacking in that position.

Well the top three teams have kind of 'no defence'... and the best D cores are slumping or out of the playoffs

Looking across the league... NYI doesn't have D beyond Pulock, Washington has no one beyond Carlson...
Florida lucked out with Weegar's development... Chicago with Murphy...
Not sold on Vegas D with Petrangelo hurt... Colorado is Makar and prospects really
The teams that have solid top 4 D are either out of the playoffs or have no offence...

I think this is the new NHL - pay the forwards and push prospects into the D lineup sooner

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ya. It's really weird but from my analysis, watching, etc. Morrissey is the largest issue for the Jets.

Pionk looks like he can be the guy on a top4 pairing if he's given the right partner. I think he's meshed well with Forbort, which is a good sign as I think Samberg's top end is a much better Forbort.

So then you have one more top 4 pairing you need to figure out. Morrissey-DeMelo is fine to get into the POs in the ND or be a fringe PO team most seasons, especially with Jets strong Fs and Gs, but you need better there if you want to truly contend. DeMelo has looked to be the stronger of the two, although he's also the one that moves to softer mins when they are split, not the other way around.

I think DeMelo can be the guy for a pairing, but depends on the quality of the other top4 pairing. Forbort-Pionk, I don't think so. Samberg-Pionk, maybe but that's a lot of guess work.

Looking at both chemistry, microstats, and quality, I think Heinola actually projects as a solid partner for DeMelo.

If Heinola can be the stronger of the Heinola-DeMelo pairing, and Samberg an upgrade on Forbort, then you have a decent top 4 that can be placed in most situations: Heinola-DeMelo and Samberg-Pionk.

There's three issues with that:
1) You are dependent on the IFs with Samberg's and Heinola's development.
2) What do you do with Morrissey then?
3) There's nothing there in the short run as the Jets seem content letting Samberg and Heinola perculate in the AHL.

Maybe placing Morrissey on the 3rd pairing with everyone healthy will help him get back to his old self. I don't think Poolman or Stanley is the guy for him on the third pair, and definitely not Beaulieu. I think you need someone who likes to carry the puck more than Morrissey. He's fine at doing it but it seems he's done better when he's had more assertive guys like Trouba and Byfuglien, and even Myers to some degree.

Given how injuries work in the NHL, your 5th best guy plays top4 mins almost as much as they do on the 3rd pair. And Morrissey is a guy that can play PP and PK, but I think I'd lean Heinola and Pionk on the PP over Morrissey.

Better to hope u can trade mo fo value than 3rd pairing hope u can fool ppl.

 

[garret9]

Since you asked about ND defenders:

Players in order of bGAR/GP

bGAR: Blended GAR
It's literatelly blending GAR and xGAR, with the weighting different for different components. So it's trying to take the best of both worlds to maximize results.

Note: I made blended GAR half assed... I could definitely build a better one but I was busy.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Since you asked about ND defenders:

Players in order of bGAR/GP

bGAR: Blended GAR
It's literatelly blending GAR and xGAR, with the weighting different for different components. So it's trying to take the best of both worlds to maximize results.

Note: I made blended GAR half assed... I could definitely build a better one but I was busy.

WICKED.

Surprised at Stanley and Pionk... we MUST be getting DeMelo back on the top pairing soon

 

[JetsFan815]

Update on model results...

EW RAPM xG and Corsi (in xG order):

Player	xG±/60	C±/60
Neal Pionk	0.199	2.78
Dylan DeMelo	0.073	0.36
Sami Niku	-0.039	-2.23
Logan Stanley	-0.046	0.31
Tucker Poolman	-0.093	-1.26
Derek Forbort	-0.132	-0.99
Nathan Beaulieu	-0.245	-3.44
Josh Morrissey	-0.251	-4.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And HockeyViz Isolated Impact:

Player	Off	Def	Diff
Dylan DeMelo	6.3	-4.1	10.4
Neal Pionk	2.8	-1.6	4.4
Derek Forbort	-6.3	-3.9	-2.4
Logan Stanley	-1.2	2.9	-4.1
Tucker Poolman	-7.2	3.5	-10.7
Nathan Beaulieu	-6.7	4.4	-11.1
Josh Morrissey	-2.6	8.6	-11.2
Sami Niku	-8.5	10.6	-19.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The later uses last year as a prior at the start of the season (although we are moving at the point where past season isn't having a huge impact anymore).


Some thoughts:

1) No doubt that DeMelo and Pionk are the two tredding above water. They are the two driving success from the back end. Jets need more help than that.

2) Forbort is what he is. Kills offense on both sides. There's utility for those types. It would be better if the difference was + and you probably don't want him as a top4 regular in the long run but he can be useful on a team with better top end than the Jets have.

3) Niku isn't struggling as bad as past years, but with 2 really bad years and this year just being sorta bad... it isn't much for promise.

4) Stanley has been sheltered and a negative, but he's a 1st year defender. Maybe he can be a fringe top4 guy, or maybe he'll just be a 3rd pairing guy. But, at least he doesn't look like the worst guy.

5) Poolman is not a top4 pairing guy.

6) Morrissey how much you've struggled. I know there's a lot of excuses out there for him, but if he's as good as many think he is he may struggle in particular usages but I still think he wouldn't be struggling as much as he currently is.

Jets still look like a team that has:
2-3 2nd pairing guys (Pionk, DeMelo, Morrissey IF he can bounce back to old him)
3 3rd pairing guys (Forbort, Stanley, Poolman)
2 pressboxers (Niku, Beaulieu)

Team needs a top pair.

I am a fan of EW's work but I refuse to believe their Niku numbers. HockeyViz seems to align more with my eyetest and what I like to call my butt-clench test for d-men when they are on the ice.