Speculation: Winners and Losers now that the dust has settled

[WetcoastOrca]

Winners: Carolina, Ottawa and Columbus
Losers: Philadelphia, Toronto and Calgary

 

[TGWL]

I'm not sure how people are failing to understand, but the salary cap won't be going up only 1M each year in the very near future. It is about to explode. This impacts the value of cap space. Nobody has it, so it is a commodity. When everyone gets that big boost, it won't be as big a commodity and more fluidity could happen.

Both US TV deals have to be accounted for. Revenue was on par with the last full season, and that was with Canada deciding to lock out fans for a few months, which hurt revenue a lot. The 2024-25 salary cap is probably going to be closer to 95M than 90M.

The Rangers just need to make it through this season and next and have all the tools to do so. They have the ability to do that pretty easily. Kakko is getting a 2 year deal this summer. Currently they have 3.425M in dead cap from buyouts that are off the books next summer. That's money that will go to Chytil, Lafreniere, and Miller getting raises. Players like Reaves, Halak, Hunt, and Blais might not come back. If they do, not really getting raises and fill roles. I'd think Reaves is done after this year or he might even be dealt this summer. There are plenty of ELCs that the team has now and coming soon that will allow for cheap replacements for these guys.

This deal for Trocheck will not be an issue impacting their cap. 5.625 right now is good for a 2C right now. When the cap goes up by nearly 10M, it wouldn't even be bad for a high end 3C in years 4-7 of the deal.

This is what Tampa is banking on and trying to get ahead of the curve. 8 year extensions. Should they be able to get by in the first 3 years or so while staying competitive, that cap increase with their players signed should provide them some flexibility to continue staying competitive.

 

[Evergreen]

Palat is 31y with 5x6.

I can’t see how that will be a better fit, especilly when New Jersey doesn’t look to be ready for playoff run

Palat will bring experience and a well rounded game that I believe will help make young guys like Hughes and Bratt better. I also think Palat’s game is the type that will hold up as he gets older.

Trust me I’m by no means a Devils fan but I just can’t hate on this deal.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Sens are the biggest winners for sure, added two PPG players at very little cost. Takes a lot of pressure off of Brady Tkachuk.

 

[Mobiandi]

The coming days/weeks will reveal the depth of the Flames' L from yesterday

 

[Djp]

Guess some people need a refresher on how term works. Murray’s contract is up right when Matthews and Nylander will need a payday.

If we paid Campbell that’s 5M tied up all through Matthews, Marner and Nylander’s pay raise years.

Matthews is walking…why does it matter

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Carolina is a much better team today than 48 hours ago. Though the two players they brought in are old, they will help. Slavin-Burns is going to be an elite pairing.

 

[North Cole]

Oilers won because they brought back Kane but they also overpaid Campbell they lost that so they are a mix.

NYR won Big today

Ottawa is a big winner not just today but the off season in general, although I do think think trading Brown for a 2nd is a good move but they are significantly better with the additions of Debrincat, Grioux and Talbot.

Calgary lost BIG today

so did Vancouver that is a terrible contract for Mikyehev.

NYI lost today they have not been able to add the goal scoring they need so far.

Campbell isn't overpaid by any significant amount and even if someone is hellbent on dying on that hill, Kane + Campbell for a combined 10.1M are good value. If you really think Campbell is a 3.5M goalie or whatever, the on-ice impact of Kane is pretty easily worth 6.7M. How that's allocated between them is whatever. Kane is probably the best value contract signed during the window so far.

That we got Kulak at 2.75M when guys like Z and Gudbrandson are getting 1-1.25M more is also good. Don't really see how this is objectively a mixed grade TBH.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Losers:

still the Blackhawks. Dumpster fire of a team at the moment.

Calgary Flames. not only do they lose Gaudreau, but they get nothing but pluggers for signings.

Vegas. Giving away a top line scorer for free is a bad move.



Winners:
Columbus. Biggest free agent signing out there and probably one of the biggest of all time.

Edmonton. Yeah, I’ll be a homer. Kane and Kulak were signed to great value deals. Campbell is an upgrade over Koskinen and Smith.

Carolina. They knocked it out of the park. Pacioretty for free, Burns for dirt cheap. Amazing moves.

Ottawa. Love Claude Giroux signing there. Really excited for the team.

 

[North Cole]

Guess some people need a refresher on how term works. Murray’s contract is up right when Matthews and Nylander will need a payday.

If we paid Campbell that’s 5M tied up all through Matthews, Marner and Nylander’s pay raise years.

I don't get the logic here. You will need to allocate some amount of money to goaltending anyways, so it's not like you can just port over the 4.8M of Murray into the new Matthews/Marner contracts. Unless your plan is to run back Samsonov at 1.8M and some random ELC in 2 years, which seems like a really bad idea.

 

[Jerkbait]

Yes but it's a bad contract when you see Makar 9M VS Sergachev 8.5M

It's not great but ....makar was signed first. Price wise it's high by a mil or more but that doesn't make tamap a loser. They will indeed March put a team fully capable of winning the east again.

 

[Atomos2]

I don't get the logic here. You will need to allocate some amount of money to goaltending anyways, so it's not like you can just port over the 4.8M of Murray into the new Matthews/Marner contracts. Unless your plan is to run back Samsonov at 1.8M and some random ELC in 2 years, which seems like a really bad idea.

First it’s Matthews and Nylander. No goaltending money would need to be involved in Marner’s contract because it’ll be the year after, when Tavares 11m comes off the books. So Marner’s raise could be from that or if the leafs still don’t have a stud goalie at that time they could use that cap space for it.

Like I said Brodie and Muzzin come off the books too which is another ~9M. The logic is that it gives you flexibility which is the whole reason for this. You don’t have to get locked into questionable goaltending. Spending it on a sure thing would be fine but Campbell isn’t a sure thing especially for 5 years.


Would Matthews and Nylander’s raise be combined 8M or 9M? Leafs could accommodate that although hopefully it wouldn’t be that drastic. For the past several years Leafs have been a cap strapped team barely able to make moves, but in a few years, if there’s no drastic changes, they’d have the stars locked up with fair (or unfair) raises and plenty of cap space.

 

[Jerzey Devil]

Palat is 31y with 5x6.

I can’t see how that will be a better fit, especilly when New Jersey doesn’t look to be ready for playoff run

They are. At least a bubble run.

 

[SnS]

When looking at the flyers, you can’t say anyone else really lost.

 

[Slurpeelover27]

Gotta be the Canes Patches and Burns for essentially nothing

They actually got more than nothing. They got Coghlan and a 2nd 3rd and 4th for getting rid of Deangelo. Can’t do much better than that.

 

[CanadienShark]

Sharks are losers.

 

[NiagaraKraken]

Guess some people need a refresher on how term works. Murray’s contract is up right when Matthews and Nylander will need a payday.

If we paid Campbell that’s 5M tied up all through Matthews, Marner and Nylander’s pay raise years.

Matthews and Marner pay raises? What are they getting now 14m a year? Toronto will never be out of cap hell then.

 

[The don godfather]

Bruins did well got a 25 yr old potential 2nd c for years to come. Untapped potential.

 

[North Cole]

First it’s Matthews and Nylander. No goaltending money would need to be involved in Marner’s contract because it’ll be the year after, when Tavares 11m comes off the books. So Marner’s raise could be from that or if the leafs still don’t have a stud goalie at that time they could use that cap space for it.

Like I said Brodie and Muzzin come off the books too which is another ~9M. The logic is that it gives you flexibility which is the whole reason for this. You don’t have to get locked into questionable goaltending. Spending it on a sure thing would be fine but Campbell isn’t a sure thing especially for 5 years.


Would Matthews and Nylander’s raise be combined 8M or 9M? Leafs could accommodate that although hopefully it wouldn’t be that drastic. For the past several years Leafs have been a cap strapped team barely able to make moves, but in a few years, if there’s no drastic changes, they’d have the stars locked up with fair (or unfair) raises and plenty of cap space.

Yes, my fault - it was not Marner. Doesn't matter though.

It doesn't really give you flexibility with the "other" positions, because you still need a goalie. If you want to say not signing Campbell gives you flexibility in two years to get a different goalie you like better because you don't think Campbell is the guy - then fair enough, that's an opinion that can make sense. As you say, you don't want to get locked in questionable goaltending. We would have to wait and see what is available and then judge on what is signed to see if you got an upgrade on Campbell in year 3.

If you plan on paying with the raise out of your D or G pool of money then you're just robbing peter to pay paul and that's not really cap 'flexibility' because you just create a more imbalanced roster. The going rate for starters these days is 4.5-6M (leaving out insane contracts like Bob and Price). Going to be very hard to find a legit starter that doesn't have an unknown track record for 3M in 2 years.

My point is that if you get a legit starter in year 3 and you are happy with that because he's better than Campbell, then congrats, but its extremely unlikely it will be for less than 4.5M in which case you have gotten no cap flexibility from forgoing the Campbell deal, you have just gotten player flexibility. Nothing wrong with player flexibility, but its not what you are talking about in the original post and doesn't help at all with paying raises to the top guys. This is kind of what happened with Hyman, isn't it? He wanted 1M more than Dubas wanted to pay because of cap so he left. Matthews is a good enough player that you pay the difference and lose someone else. Maybe that will be the prospect of a 5M goalie, but then I'd say you are just spinning your tires not fixing the goaltending...I doubt many would be happy with that.

 

[Atomos2]

Yes, my fault - it was not Marner. Doesn't matter though.

It doesn't really give you flexibility with the "other" positions, because you still need a goalie. If you want to say not signing Campbell gives you flexibility in two years to get a different goalie you like better because you don't think Campbell is the guy - then fair enough, that's an opinion that can make sense. As you say, you don't want to get locked in questionable goaltending. We would have to wait and see what is available and then judge on what is signed to see if you got an upgrade on Campbell in year 3.

If you plan on paying with the raise out of your D or G pool of money then you're just robbing peter to pay paul and that's not really cap 'flexibility' because you just create a more imbalanced roster. The going rate for starters these days is 4.5-6M (leaving out insane contracts like Bob and Price). Going to be very hard to find a legit starter that doesn't have an unknown track record for 3M in 2 years.

My point is that if you get a legit starter in year 3 and you are happy with that because he's better than Campbell, then congrats, but its extremely unlikely it will be for less than 4.5M in which case you have gotten no cap flexibility from forgoing the Campbell deal, you have just gotten player flexibility. Nothing wrong with player flexibility, but its not what you are talking about in the original post and doesn't help at all with paying raises to the top guys. This is kind of what happened with Hyman, isn't it? He wanted 1M more than Dubas wanted to pay because of cap so he left. Matthews is a good enough player that you pay the difference and lose someone else. Maybe that will be the prospect of a 5M goalie, but then I'd say you are just spinning your tires not fixing the goaltending...I doubt many would be happy with that.

Yes for the first full paragraph. That’s what I was thinking. It’ll be a wait and see but at least they’ll have the flexibility to monitor and explore the goaltending market and make the deal when they can.

This is not a revelation to anyone who’s followed the leafs. Allocating d money and g money may be a necessary risk. But keep in mind that’s around the time they’re hoping Sandin, Liljegren and maybe even possibly Niemela establish themselves or atleast transition into being the core of their defence at hopefully a cheaper cost. Remains to be seen how significant their raises will be but if it’s anything to worry about then these next couple years will be fantastic for the Leafs d. But again we’ll see. If not then obviously they’d have to adjust.

In 2 years, Murray, Brodie and Muzzin come off the books. My math might not be perfect but it’s probably around 14M of cap space. Not sure what other cap space they’ll have but the Leafs have certainly done pretty decent in the past making an elite team with waaay less cap room. Pretty sure they could figure out what to do with 14+M of cap space that won’t have them running out of money. That would include getting a goalie if needed at the time. Hell we haven’t even talked about the possibility of trades.

 

[UrbanImpact]

Losers:

NJD for losing out on Gaudreau then compounding it with a contract to Palat until he is 36 yrs old.

CBJ- Gudbransson is a 1mil player , 3rd pairing.

Edmonton- 4 year security and commitment to Kane, were about to see the real Evander Kane. I give it a year before he is demanding a trade.

Tampa- Sergachev

NYR- Trochek- yikes

Winners:

CBJ- Gaudreau
Col- Manson, Lek
Carolina- Patches, Burns

 

[Steerpike]

The Avs are, by far, the biggest winner.

Because somehow, the rest of the west got worse with the exception of an Oilers team making sideways moves. And the Avs are still far ahead of them given the Oilers given the uncompetitive playoff example

Minnesota and St Louis lost their second best forwards and Wild lost their goalie depth. Calgary lost their best player. Vegas lost a first liner. Pretty much all the west declined.

Try to list the west playoff standings year end. It’s hard to pick teams finishing 2 - 5th with any conviction.

There are no legit Stanley Cup contenders in the west outside of the Avs.

Central certainly got much easier. MInnesota, St Louis, Dallas and Nashville all seem like they're slowly or quickly getting worse. They should absolutely get back to the Conference Finals again, and that's not something that's supposed to be easy.

However I think Pacific could be fine.

Calgary will still be good without Gaudreau. Sutter teams are legit.
LA looks like they might be the next big thing.
Edmonton hold on to Kane. Likely get better goaltending.
Vegas could really pull it together.

Big improvements in free agency are usually overrated. You can make the same adds during the season via trades... and in a way that is drastically less hard on the cap.



With Colorado, on paper they have lost players. But with the amount of contracts going into free agency, that was never not going to happen, especially after winning the cup. It's more winning by doing a good job of holding onto the most important pieces at a reasonable cost. They just had one of the most dominant postseasons ever.... so getting as close as possible to running it back is clearly a win.

If this exact team was immediately going to go be in the playoffs again you would be concerned that JT Compher is our 2C, but we still have a whole season and a 1st to find a really good 2C rental. That rental can also cheat the cap via retention, which you just can't do signing UFAs.

 

[doublechili]

It takes at least a year or three to know for sure, but:

the biggest losers are generally some teams that sign UFAs; and

the biggest winners are generally some teams that sign UFAs and some teams that don't sign UFAs.

 

[TBF1972]

Columbus went from the losers of the day to one of the winners of the sat in a span of hours

what's the plan with laine?

 

[kylbaz]

Didn’t Avs lose Bura or is he not considered a big loss? Just an outside perspective but if Kadri walks, the Avs look weaker on paper than they did when they won the cup.

Even without Kadri and Bura, they’re the best team in the west

Yeah quite the homer take. Goalie gone and kadri not signed, some how your team is a winner in free agency.