Blue Jays Discussion: Will play Texas in the ALDS (Playoff Avatars in Posts 1-4)

[Damisoph]

Also, I just wonder what the reaction would be on here if we did what the Cardinals just did and got swept and shut out in all 3 games by the really putrid and insanely godawful Barves.

Came here to post exactly this. Reading Wilner's twitter timeline was alternately hilarious and maddening.

 

[GoonieFace]

And a slight advantage (9.0 for Trout and 8.6 for Donaldson) in fWAR. I realized the other day (when Donaldson still actually had a slight lead in fWAR) that I would probably vote for Trout if I were an impartial fan, since neither has been clearly better than the other and Trout has the edge on offense.

But I'm not an impartial fan... so go Donaldson!

Lets not forget Trout completely disappeared for a month when the Angels really needed him. Donaldson has been great all year.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Lets not forget Trout completely disappeared for a month when the Angels really needed him. Donaldson has been great all year.

It will probably be revealed rather shortly that he played the final two months of the year with a severely sprained wrist.

 

[draeko17]

Game 1 Row 5, section 135, just up from the bullpen. perfect seat to catch the game winning walk off homerun.....

Can't wait! Sure, it would be cool to be closer to where most of the action will be on the field but coming from Vancouver, it's pretty close. Will be a great time to share this experience with the rest of the mob.

 

[LaCarriere]

Donaldson really fell into a bit of a slump towards the end of the season.

He had that walkoff in the last home game, but he actually lost the edge in fWAR in the last week or so. He was up by 0.1 (I think around the time the Jays went on the last road trip) and Trout finished 0.4 ahead.

Unfortunately, I wouldn't be shocked if Trout stole it to be honest. He's leading offensively in all the traditional stats. Same number of HRs but in 29 less plate appearances, higher walk rate, quite a bit higher ISO (19 points), quite a bit higher OBP (31 points) and SLG (22 points). Donaldson has more RBIs and Rs, but those are also team dependent stats, it's not Trout's fault if there's nobody on base for him to drive in, or if nobody is knocking him in. Trout leads in wOBA and especially wRC+ by a pretty big margin too.

I honestly don't know if those with a vote have even gravitated towards saber stats yet, but Trout has the edge in pretty much all the traditional or advanced stats. The only team independent offensive stat Donaldson leads in, is that he struck out about 5% less of the time, and he was better defensively. Then there's the subjective argument that Donaldson's team made the playoffs and Trout's didn't -- which you can't say is only Trout's fault.

It will be close, but like I said, I won't be shocked if Trout stole it. I'd actually be pretty surprised if Donaldson won it since Trout edges him out nearly everywhere.

 

[Discoverer]

Donaldson really fell into a bit of a slump towards the end of the season.

He had that walkoff in the last home game, but he actually lost the edge in fWAR in the last week or so. He was up by 0.1 (I think around the time the Jays went on the last road trip) and Trout finished 0.4 ahead.

Unfortunately, I wouldn't be shocked if Trout stole it to be honest. He's leading offensively in all the traditional stats. Same number of HRs but in 29 less plate appearances, higher walk rate, quite a bit higher ISO (19 points), quite a bit higher OBP (31 points) and SLG (22 points). Donaldson has more RBIs and Rs, but those are also team dependent stats, it's not Trout's fault if there's nobody on base for him to drive in, or if nobody is knocking him in. Trout leads in wOBA and especially wRC+ by a pretty big margin too.

I honestly don't know if those with a vote have even gravitated towards Sabre stats yet, but Trout has the edge in pretty much all the traditional or advanced stats. The only team independent offensive stat Donaldson leads in, is that he struck out about 5% less of the time, and he was better defensively. Then there's the subjective argument that Donaldson's team made the playoffs and Trout's didn't -- which you can't say is only Trout's fault.

It will be close, but like I said, I won't be shocked if Trout stole it. I'd actually be pretty surprised if Donaldson won it since Trout edges him out nearly everywhere.

Yeah, I expect it to be a close race, and voters really can't go wrong either way. I think Trout had the slightly better season, but Donaldson's RBI and R totals, combined with the Jays making the playoffs, should pretty much lock up all the old-school voters. I think Donaldson will win it, but it's pretty much impossible to make a wrong decision in a race this close. It's not like it'll be a Cabrera over Trout level upset either way (unless someone pulls a Michael-Young-for-first-place type move and hands out a vote to Cain or Machado or something).

 

[LaCarriere]

I think there was a stat that 27 of Donaldson's 41 homeruns have either given Toronto the lead or has tied the game. That should be a huge indicator of Donaldson winning this.

Plus, his team made the playoffs.

I'm not sure what this stat really says though -- it doesn't necessarily imply he's "clutch". He hit a disproportionate number of 1st inning home runs, and since he hits 2nd in the order of course a lot of those home runs would result in giving the Jays an early lead.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but you really need to cherry pick stats like the above, or look at subjective arguments that aren't just under the control of Donaldson / Trout (like making the playoffs) in order to make a case for Donaldson -- but when you look at individual stats that are completely team independent, Trout edges him out pretty much everywhere.

 

[theaub]

I'm not sure what this stat really says though -- it doesn't necessarily imply he's "clutch". He hit a disproportionate number of 1st inning home runs, and since he hits 2nd in the order of course a lot of those home runs would result in giving the Jays an early lead.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but you really need to cherry pick stats like the above, or look at subjective arguments that aren't just under the control of Donaldson / Trout (like making the playoffs) in order to make a case for Donaldson -- but when you look at individual stats that are completely team independent, Trout edges him out pretty much everywhere.

To use the clutch/WPA stats (that I feel are wholly valid for a MVP vote)

Donaldson: 6.27 WPA, -0.47 Clutch
Trout: 5.26 WPA, -0.46 Clutch

In conclusion, both of them suck. Eric Hosmer and his massive 2.81 Clutch for MVP imo

 

[Eyedea]

I think there was a stat that 27 of Donaldson's 41 homeruns have either given Toronto the lead or has tied the game. That should be a huge indicator of Donaldson winning this.

Plus, his team made the playoffs.

That stat is a little flawed though considering 13 of his home runs have come in the first inning.

Lets not forget Trout completely disappeared for a month when the Angels really needed him. Donaldson has been great all year.

Trout was also playing injured through August. He was the focal point to the Angels hot September and almost brought them back from the grave and into the postseason.

One thing that you can say though is that over the 2nd half of the season there wasn't a better player in the AL than Josh Donaldson (Joey Votto was the best in all of baseball). Ryan Howard managed to battle Pujols in the 2008 NL MVP so who knows, those RBIs and runs (as well as making the postseason) may still be pretty big points for the voters.

 

[King Mapes]

What about WAR? Who has the edge?

By what you guys say, Trout might win but it's close. I think Keuchel narrowly beats Price as well.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Donaldson really fell into a bit of a slump towards the end of the season.

He had that walkoff in the last home game, but he actually lost the edge in fWAR in the last week or so. He was up by 0.1 (I think around the time the Jays went on the last road trip) and Trout finished 0.4 ahead.

Unfortunately, I wouldn't be shocked if Trout stole it to be honest. He's leading offensively in all the traditional stats. Same number of HRs but in 29 less plate appearances, higher walk rate, quite a bit higher ISO (19 points), quite a bit higher OBP (31 points) and SLG (22 points). Donaldson has more RBIs and Rs, but those are also team dependent stats, it's not Trout's fault if there's nobody on base for him to drive in, or if nobody is knocking him in. Trout leads in wOBA and especially wRC+ by a pretty big margin too.

I honestly don't know if those with a vote have even gravitated towards Sabre stats yet, but Trout has the edge in pretty much all the traditional or advanced stats. The only team independent offensive stat Donaldson leads in, is that he struck out about 5% less of the time, and he was better defensively. Then there's the subjective argument that Donaldson's team made the playoffs and Trout's didn't -- which you can't say is only Trout's fault.

It will be close, but like I said, I won't be shocked if Trout stole it. I'd actually be pretty surprised if Donaldson won it since Trout edges him out nearly everywhere.

So what? Trout may win the MVP but Donaldson may win the only thing that matters, the WS. Donaldson is great and I don't care about Trout.

 

[theaub]

Breaking: Jeff Bannister doesn't look at stats/can't remember all the way back to August

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 53s54 seconds ago
Interesting #BlueJays development: #Rangers manager Jeff Banister tells @MLBNetworkRadio there's "good chance" Texas starts 3 LHP in ALDS.

 

[Eyedea]

What about WAR? Who has the edge?

By what you guys say, Trout might win but it's close. I think Keuchel narrowly beats Price as well.

Trout narrowly leads in fWAR. 9.0 vs 8.6. Would be pretty crazy if Trout's worst season statistically to date happens to be the only time he has won an MVP.

So what? Trout may win the MVP but Donaldson may win the only thing that matters, the WS. Donaldson is great and I don't care about Trout.

The question was posed as to who might win the AL MVP...

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Breaking: Jeff Bannister doesn't look at stats/can't remember all the way back to August

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 53s54 seconds ago
Interesting #BlueJays development: #Rangers manager Jeff Banister tells @MLBNetworkRadio there's "good chance" Texas starts 3 LHP in ALDS.

Perfect. Absolutely perfect.

Yostian in nature.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Breaking: Jeff Bannister doesn't look at stats/can't remember all the way back to August

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 53s54 seconds ago
Interesting #BlueJays development: #Rangers manager Jeff Banister tells @MLBNetworkRadio there's "good chance" Texas starts 3 LHP in ALDS.

 

[King Mapes]

So what? Trout may win the MVP but Donaldson may win the only thing that matters, the WS. Donaldson is great and I don't care about Trout.

There's no need to respond like that. I think I was the one who brought it up because I was curious as to who has the edge because, as you can tell, I'm not an advanced stat guy.

I wonder how much impact making the playoffs will have.

 

[LaCarriere]

So what? Trout may win the MVP but Donaldson may win the only thing that matters, the WS. Donaldson is great and I don't care about Trout.

chill out, Mapes asked for assessments on who the MVP might go to... I gave my opinion. Sorry I can't be a homer 100% of the time, even when stats might give a slight edge to somebody else.

 

[King Mapes]

All LHP? Against us?!?!?

 

[Suntouchable13]

There's no need to respond like that. I think I was the one who brought it up because I was curious as to who has the edge because, as you can tell, I'm not an advanced stat guy.

I wonder how much impact making the playoffs will have.

I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't trying to be rude. I was just trying to say that we have a great player, even if he does not win the MVP it shouldn't diminish from that fact.

 

[TF97]

For me. I believe both players have done enough to win the award. There isn't a clear winner, it's all up to the writers now.

 

[LaCarriere]

well, that could easily backfire. 3 lefties against a bunch of right handed batting mashers?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If I was Señor Bannister, I'd go:

Gallardo
Hamels
Lewis
Pray for rain
Gallardo

But to each their own.

 

[Damisoph]

Although WAR, fWAR, wOBA is slowly gaining traction amongst MVP voters, it's not the end all be all like it is for a lot of fans. There are some guys that still have average, HR and RBI as big reasons for their vote.

Hence, I'm expecting JD to get the nod in a close race.

 

[King Mapes]

For me. I believe both players have done enough to win the award. There isn't a clear winner, it's all up to the writers now.

Ya I won't argue either way. I think the Cy Young is close too but Keuchel likely wins (like it or not 20 wins will factor in).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Although WAR, fWAR, wOBA is slowly gaining traction amongst MVP voters, it's not the end all be all like it is for a lot of fans. There are some guys that still have average, HR and RBI as big reasons for their vote.

Hence, I'm expecting JD to get the nod in a close race.

I mean, as they should. I'm as big on wOBA and wRC+, as well as FIP and SIERA as anybody; but to outright ignore counting stats or ERA is a bit extreme in the wrong direction.

As always, one should employ moderation and common sense.

I actually think JD wins it as the award pivots from most valuable to most outstanding, and back again from year to year it seems.