Blue Jays Discussion: Will play Texas in the ALDS (Playoff Avatars in Posts 1-4)

[Swervin81]

Also, I just wonder what the reaction would be on here if we did what the Cardinals just did and got swept and shut out in all 3 games by the really putrid and insanely godawful Barves.

 

[LaCarriere]

They put up 14 runs after the 7th with already a 6 run lead and Keuchel pitching. It was pretty irrelevant.

Again, that's how their offense basically runs. Bunch of skewed numbers. They didn't win their division because of their offense anyway. Their first half pitching + Keuchel got them in.

Let's not pretend the Jays didn't put up a bunch of skewed numbers either, a power hitting offense that gets a large chunk of it's runs from homruns is going to be naturally prone to that.

The blue Jays were an atrocious 15-28 (.349) in 1 run games, and 37-12 in games that were decided by 5+ runs (.755). By comparison the Astros were 21-29 in 1 run games (.420) and 21-12 in games decided by 5+ runs (.636). Using those numbers the Jays stats are actually more skewed than the Astros (meaning the Jays scored a lot of unneeded runs, and were continually unable to score 1-2 runs in close games).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Also, I just wonder what the reaction would be on here if we did what the Cardinals just did and got swept and shut out in all 3 games by the really putrid and insanely godawful Barves.

Were people actually upset around here? Sorry, I wasn't around all weekend.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Let's not pretend the Jays didn't put up a bunch of skewed numbers either, a power hitting offense that gets a large chunk of it's runs from homruns is going to be naturally prone to that.

The blue Jays were an atrocious 15-28 (.349) in 1 run games, and 37-12 in games that were decided by 5+ runs (.755). By comparison the Astros were 21-29 in 1 run games (.420) and 21-12 in games decided by 5+ runs (.636). Using those numbers the Jays stats are actually more skewed than the Astros (meaning the Jays scored a lot of unneeded runs, and were continually unable to score 1-2 runs in close games).

What was the Jays record in one run games after the all star break?

 

[Stats01]

Gareth Wheeler is going off on the Jays about how they ended the season and giving them crap for having Buerhle try and get his 200 innings...does he realize KC won yesterday so no matter what happened it wouldn't have mattered. I love how everyone is just freaking out now after the season this team has had.

When the biggest concern is how long Price is going to be off for before game 1 I think things are pretty good. I guess people just need things to talk about.

 

[LaCarriere]

What was the Jays record in one run games after the all star break?

not sure how to quickly tally that, Baseball Reference just lists those 1 run and 5 run game splits by the entire season, and I don't feel like counting them manually.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Gareth Wheeler is going off on the Jays about how they ended the season and giving them crap for having Buerhle try and get his 200 innings...does he realize KC won yesterday so no matter what happened it wouldn't have mattered. I love how everyone is just freaking out now after the season this team has had.

When the biggest concern is how long Price is going to be off for before game 1 I think things are pretty good. I guess people just need things to talk about.

Who's Garet Wheeler?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

not sure how to quickly tally that, Baseball Reference just lists those 1 run and 5 run game splits by the entire season, and I don't feel like counting them manually.

My guess is something right around .500, and a very small sample.

Think 6-6.

 

[Eyedea]

They put up 14 runs after the 7th with already a 6 run lead and Keuchel pitching. It was pretty irrelevant.

Again, that's how their offense basically runs. Bunch of skewed numbers. They didn't win their division because of their offense anyway. Their first half pitching + Keuchel got them in.

That's kinda also how people were referring to the Jays offence before they went on their hot 2nd half stretch. Yeah, none of their players have hit as well as Donaldson, Encarnacion, Bautista, Colabello, or Travis for that matter, but their offence isn't 'just average'. Rasmus for example would be our 5th best hitter (their 4th currently). But, then again, Correa, Altuve, and Springer would be ranked as the Jays 5th best hitter. Kinda shows just how dominant the Jays offence was this season, but nonetheless the Astros are still a top offensive team.

These are the top 10 offences in MLB this season.

There are 30 runs between Houston and 15th. This includes the NL teams that don't have DH's. And they just threw up 21 runs in a nothing game a few days ago.

The Astros offense is very average. It's not a strength. It just what it is. Altuve is fantastic and will be a tough guy to shut down. Correa-Springer are good. After that, it's meh. Hell, Rasmus is one of their better hitters. Freaking Rasmus.

They are pretty irrelevant as we won't be facing them anyway.

FWIW Rasmus would be the Rangers 3rd best hitter behind Choo and Fielder this season. We've clearly seen him produce at above average to great levels before (2013). Also in terms of run differential in the league, what does that really tell us? The Rockies are 5th in runs scored but their ballpark is conducive to runs which is represented in their wRC+ (85, ranked 30th). The Cubs, who represent your cutoff at 15th, is a fairly comparable offensive team to the Astros. However, they do not slug nearly as well as the Astros (30 point difference in ISO). Just because there are teams within 30 runs of the Astros doesn't mean that they are somehow better than them (or similar) offensively.

Everything about the Astros is a strength except their defence. Their offence is solid, their starters and relievers are solid, and their baserunning is solid.

 

[theaub]

Who's Garet Wheeler?

TFC troll too bad he's moved across to baseball for a bit

 

[LaCarriere]

Gareth Wheeler is going off on the Jays about how they ended the season and giving them crap for having Buerhle try and get his 200 innings...does he realize KC won yesterday so no matter what happened it wouldn't have mattered. I love how everyone is just freaking out now after the season this team has had.

When the biggest concern is how long Price is going to be off for before game 1 I think things are pretty good. I guess people just need things to talk about.

I mean it's easy to focus on those games at the end of the season cause they are fresh in everyone's mind -- those two games Gibby played the AAA roster, the last game (Jays had nobody on regular rest to start that game anyway due to the double header other than Price, but that would mean him going in game 1 on 3 days rest).

The reality is Osuna blew that game Saturday (that would have brought the magic number down to 1 to clinch the AL), and then all you have to do is look back at the jays .500 first half and pick any game where the Jays offense didn't show up, like say April 13th and 14th where they lost 2-1 or 3-2 to the Rays.

That's why those games at the start of the season are no less important than those games at the end -- maybe even more important. The end of the season your players are exhausted and you're resting them for the playoffs, you want to start as strong as possible and build a cushion when your players are fresh at the start.

 

[Discoverer]

My guess is something right around .500, and a very small sample.

Think 6-6.

5-8

A team's record in one-run games is very much a product of randomness/luck.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

TFC troll too bad he's moved across to baseball for a bit

They're coming out of the woodwork!

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

5-8

A team's record in one-run games is very much a product of randomness/luck.

Seems almost odd to quote it as a relevant statistic.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I mean it's easy to focus on those games at the end of the season cause they are fresh in everyone's mind -- those two games Gibby played the AAA roster, the last game (Jays had nobody on regular rest to start that game anyway due to the double header other than Price, but that would mean him going in game 1 on 3 days rest).

The reality is Osuna blew that game Saturday (that would have brought the magic number down to 1 to clinch the AL), and then all you have to do is look back at the jays .500 first half and pick any game where the Jays offense didn't show up, like say April 13th and 14th where they lost 2-1 or 3-2 to the Rays.

That's why those games at the start of the season are no less important than those games at the end -- maybe even more important. The end of the season your players are exhausted and you're resting them for the playoffs, you want to start as strong as possible and build a cushion when your players are fresh at the start.

I was told that it was foolish to believe players would be exhausted at the end of the season. In fact, playing them 27 innings in less than 24 hours would be perfectly fine, because baseball's not tiring.

Also, derpa der.

 

[Discoverer]

Seems almost odd to quote it as a relevant statistic.

I didn't quote it as a relevant statistic. It's interesting to me, as are most stats that speak to the crazy amount of randomness in baseball, but I never suggested it means anything. It doesn't.

 

[OilerPensfan97]

When are they determining the times for the games?

 

[Trouba95*]

I was told that it was foolish to believe players would be exhausted at the end of the season. In fact, playing them 27 innings in less than 24 hours would be perfectly fine, because baseball's not tiring.

Also, derpa der.

Haha. Ya everyone thinks playing 3 games in 24 hours has no ill-effects on the body.

 

[Suntouchable13]

When are they determining the times for the games?

Probably after the 2 wild card games presented by Budweiser.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Gareth Wheeler is going off on the Jays about how they ended the season and giving them crap for having Buerhle try and get his 200 innings...does he realize KC won yesterday so no matter what happened it wouldn't have mattered. I love how everyone is just freaking out now after the season this team has had.

When the biggest concern is how long Price is going to be off for before game 1 I think things are pretty good. I guess people just need things to talk about.

Gareth Wheeler would complain about the sky being blue.

and I would think Price would be okay, because he did do a sim. game, right?

 

[BertCorbeau]

Really good read on ESPN today about playoff baseball. Pretty insightful linking success in the post season together.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2015...erblueprint/ultimate-formula-winning-playoffs

 

[King Mapes]

This is for advanced stat guys..

So now that the season is over what do Trout vs JD's numbers look like?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

This is for advanced stat guys..

So now that the season is over what do Trout vs JD's numbers look like?

Trout has Donaldson in wOBA (.415 v .398) and wRC+ (172 v 154).

He's been the more productive hitter in terms of advanced statistics.

 

[Amadeus]

This is for advanced stat guys..

So now that the season is over what do Trout vs JD's numbers look like?

I think there was a stat that 27 of Donaldson's 41 homeruns have either given Toronto the lead or has tied the game. That should be a huge indicator of Donaldson winning this.

Plus, his team made the playoffs.

 

[Discoverer]

Trout has Donaldson in wOBA (415 v 398) and wRC+ (172 v 154).

He's been the more productive hitter in terms of advanced statistics.

And a slight advantage (9.0 for Trout and 8.6 for Donaldson) in fWAR. I realized the other day (when Donaldson still actually had a slight lead in fWAR) that I would probably vote for Trout if I were an impartial fan, since neither has been clearly better than the other and Trout has the edge on offense.

But I'm not an impartial fan... so go Donaldson!