Will Mitch Marner become star?

[ULF_55]

To me Korshkov remains his most controversial choice. And ultimately it’s way too early to say if he’s made the right one or not (even though I do like Korshkov)

Isn't it too early to call any of the drafts from the past 3 years?

Not every prospects / player develops at the same pace, nor does it have to be linear.

Would anyone be praising Brock Boeser last year when evaluating the top picks from the 2015 draft?

People getting too excited and shooting off judgement day years in advance.

 

[DarkKnight]

I thought Arizona blew it when they took Strome #3OA as they should have taken Matty Barzal instead. IMO was #3 on my final draft board if they were looking for centre.

Eichel was considered the #2 OA but it will be interesting to see how both Marner and Barzal compare to Jack, as you mentioned Eichel does have a prickly personality despite the elite talent which could become a developmental issue for him. Character when drafting has to be a consideration and good character player like Marner will never be a concern that his ego gets in the way of team success.

Agreed, I got that Strome had great hands in tight, was an elite finisher, but his foot speed was a real wildcard for a top pick...not really that surprised at his development to date. I predict Buffalo regrets building everything around Eichel, he's a problem child IMHO and he doesn't bring it consistently. Does he make those around him better, can he lead? Big no so far for me.

 

[lipstickjunkie]

Agreed, I got that Strome had great hands in tight, was an elite finisher, but his foot speed was a real wildcard for a top pick...not really that surprised at his development to date. I predict Buffalo regrets building everything around Eichel, he's a problem child IMHO and he doesn't bring it consistently. Does he make those around him better, can he lead? Big no so far for me.

Yeah, Buffalo has to be disappointed with what they've come up with from having back-to-back #2 overall picks. Eichel is good, but probably underachieving considering the hype and the contract, and Reinhart is looking like a huge bust.

 

[lipstickjunkie]

Willy should be able to get us three innthe top 10 in that group. Babcock developing all three right is going to be funnto watch.

It's incredible, really. We have two of the five most productive players from the last five drafts, and three of the top 13. It's pretty funny that some are calling Marner a bust when he's producing more than any player from the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts. I guess there wasn't one good player chosen three years in a row.

 

[Mess]

Let's increase this to the last five drafts. Here are the top 25 PPG players from the 2012-2016 drafts (minimum 50 GP):

McDavid 1.17
Matthews 0.88
Laine 0.85
Eichel 0.80
Marner 0.76
Forsberg 0.75
Pastrnak 0.75
MacKinnon 0.74
Draisaitl 0.73
Guentzel 0.71
Barkov 0.71

Yeah, Marner is such a bust.

You will need to adjust the list soon as more players eclipse your {50 game minimum) threshold.

Case in point Brock Boeser: 42 games 23-15-38 points & (0.90) vs Marner: 113 games 23-63-86 points & (0.76) and in +8 more games Boeser will pass Marner.

Boeser has as many goals 23 in 42 games as Marner has in 113 games and scores at a higher rate PPG as well. If the draft were today you could make a strong argument statistically that Boeser > Marner if you're looking at wingers from the 2015 draft because Brock scores like Laine does.

PS. Your list is essentially a "Forwards Only" PPG ranking because Dmen even ones playing in teams top pairing at age 20 like Werenski or Provorov don't produce at PPG rate of forwards. Despite Marner scoring more points last year it was Werenski that finished 3rd in Calder voting behind Matthews/Laine.

 

[lipstickjunkie]

You will need to adjust the list soon as more players eclipse your {50 game minimum) threshold.

Case in point Brock Boeser: 42 games 23-15-38 points & (0.90) vs Marner: 113 games 23-63-86 points & (0.76)

Boeser has as many goals 23 in 42 games as Marner has in 113 games and scores at a higher rate PPG as well. If the draft were today you could make a strong argument statistically that Boeser > Marner if your looking at winger from the 2015 draft because Brock scores like Laine does.

PS. Your list is essentially a "Forwards Only" PPG ranking because Dmen even ones playing in teams top pairing at age 20 like Werenski or Provorov don't produce at PPG rate of forwards. Despite Marner scoring more points last year it was Werenski that finished 3rd in Calder voting behind Matthews/Laine.

Boeser has 38 points in 42 games, yes. Marner had 36 points in his first 42 games. Let's see what Boeser's PPG is when he's at 113 GP. Maybe he keeps this pace up, but I doubt it, considering only McDavid has a higher PPG than Boeser's 0.9 from the last five years. And if he does, good for him, it doesn't take away from how good Marner has been.

 

[ULF_55]

It's incredible, really. We have two of the five most productive players from the last five drafts, and three of the top 13. It's pretty funny that some are calling Marner a bust when he's producing more than any player from the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts. I guess there wasn't one good player chosen three years in a row.

Really?

How many are calling him a bust?

There are very few players who are making a living in professional sports that are busts, and there are numerous very good athletes who aren't making a living in sports.

Worked with a Bruins goaltending prospect for a few years, he ended up being a goalie coach for a OHL team, but never really seemed broken in any way!

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Agreed, I got that Strome had great hands in tight, was an elite finisher, but his foot speed was a real wildcard for a top pick...not really that surprised at his development to date. I predict Buffalo regrets building everything around Eichel, he's a problem child IMHO and he doesn't bring it consistently. Does he make those around him better, can he lead? Big no so far for me.

yeah Eichel also isn't the same caliber player people thought, even ignoring his behavior problems. I have him as a Barzal/Marner/Nylander/Laine/Draisaitl etc. level talent, but he's done nothing to separate himself from that tier. I wouldn't be surprised if some more younger players end up better than him too

 

[Mess]

Agreed, I got that Strome had great hands in tight, was an elite finisher, but his foot speed was a real wildcard for a top pick...not really that surprised at his development to date. I predict Buffalo regrets building everything around Eichel, he's a problem child IMHO and he doesn't bring it consistently. Does he make those around him better, can he lead? Big no so far for me.

Skating is sooooooo critical in today's NHL and has to be a top consideration when ranking BPA at draft time. Strome might still turn out to be a good NHL goal scorer in time, and perhaps feast on the PP when skating is not an issue.

With Eichel he still has the size, elite skill and plays as the critical #1C position, however he might lack only maturity at this age as his develops and time allows him to grow out of this if they surrounded him with good vets. He has the ability to impact the game at a high level when he wants to.

 

[Menzinger]

Isn't it too early to call any of the drafts from the past 3 years?

Not every prospects / player develops at the same pace, nor does it have to be linear.

Would anyone be praising Brock Boeser last year when evaluating the top picks from the 2015 draft?

People getting too excited and shooting off judgement day years in advance.

I’d say that’s generally true. Other than The first round selections we probably won’t have a good idea of how Hunters drafting has faired in the rounds 2-7 for another 4-5 years down the line.

 

[Mess]

Boeser has 38 points in 42 games, yes. Marner had 36 points in his first 42 games. Let's see what Boeser's PPG is when he's at 113 GP. Maybe he keeps this pace up, but I doubt it, considering only McDavid has a higher PPG than Boeser's 0.9 from the last five years. And if he does, good for him, it doesn't take away from how good Marner has been.

Something else to consider when evaluating points early is where in the line-up depth chart those points are coming from in terms of QofC they play against and strength of their own teammates they play with.

In terms of Brock Boeser he is playing on the Nucks top line with Hovath as his C, and playing upfront on the PP#1 potting goals in traffic. Marner to this point in his development has been well insulated by Babs playing 3rd line duties and the point on the PP as he gets bigger and stronger and gains experience. The Leafs 3rd line of Bozak sees mainly 3rd and 4th lines & 2nd/3rd pairings of the opposition of QofC, it creates a talent mismatch for the Leafs line and when that trio gets hot can pile up the points.

Case in point here Boeser on the top line would face Bergeron at forward and Chara on D in QofC terms, similar to how Matthews has to go up against the best of the opposition nightly. Marner as a 3rd line RWer at present wouldn't need to play against Bergeron or Krejci lines (Bruins top 2 lines) as Matthews & Kadri lines would play head to head and that is a huge advantage when statistically you compare players without factoring in depth charts.

When Marner moves up into the top 2 lines of the Leafs how will his PPG rate look against better competition nightly? Due to his size will Marner always play the point on the PP to give him time and space to operate and keep him away from the heavy traffic areas up front, but where many of the goals are scored?. It will be excellent if Marner could maintain his current PPG rate when he faces better opposition talent because then it will leveling the playing surface for all comparable players and he would be considered a star player statistically.

This is the same for Nylander from his draft class and his comparable Pastrnak and Ehlers who are both top 2 lines and key parts of the offense regularly, where Babcock moves Nylander down to 3rd and 4th lines when he struggles against stronger Qof C and plays the point on the #2pp unit. What will happen if Nylander is moved Center in time, will he be 3rd line C behind Matthews and Kadri and play in the Bozak spot now?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Marners line put up a 80% possession rate against a very heavy depth team against Columbus. Wow!!

That team is a solid depth team that plays a heavy game and couldn't touch the puck against Marner in his 17 minutes of play.

Great job by that line!

For a player shooting 60% below last years shooting % he is coming on nicely.

There is not a line of forwards or pair of defense in the Nhl that won't be shaking in their boots when they see him wind up from here on in.

Magic got da MoJo workin!

 

[diceman934]

Skating is sooooooo critical in today's NHL and has to be a top consideration when ranking BPA at draft time. Strome might still turn out to be a good NHL goal scorer in time, and perhaps feast on the PP when skating is not an issue.

With Eichel he still has the size, elite skill and plays as the critical #1C position, however he might lack only maturity at this age as his develops and time allows him to grow out of this if they surrounded him with good vets. He has the ability to impact the game at a high level when he wants to.

He is a team klller and I see no reason for stop as his team bought in and payed him like a star, fired the coach who was holding him accountable and the owner has licensed his behaviour.

 

[diceman934]

Something else to consider when evaluating points early is where in the line-up depth chart those points are coming from in terms of QofC they play against and strength of their own teammates they play with.

In terms of Brock Boeser he is playing on the Nucks top line with Hovath as his C, and playing upfront on the PP#1 potting goals in traffic. Marner to this point in his development has been well insulated by Babs playing 3rd line duties and the point on the PP as he gets bigger and stronger and gains experience. The Leafs 3rd line of Bozak sees mainly 3rd and 4th lines & 2nd/3rd pairings of the opposition of QofC, it creates a talent mismatch for the Leafs line and when that trio gets hot can pile up the points.

Case in point here Boeser on the top line would face Bergeron at forward and Chara on D in QofC terms, similar to how Matthews has to go up against the best of the opposition nightly. Marner as a 3rd line RWer at present wouldn't need to play against Bergeron or Krejci lines (Bruins top 2 lines) as Matthews & Kadri lines would play head to head and that is a huge advantage when statistically you compare players without factoring in depth charts.

When Marner moves up into the top 2 lines of the Leafs how will his PPG rate look against better competition nightly? Due to his size will Marner always play the point on the PP to give him time and space to operate and keep him away from the heavy traffic areas up front, but where many of the goals are scored?. It will be excellent if Marner could maintain his current PPG rate when he faces better opposition talent because then it will leveling the playing surface for all comparable players and he would be considered a star player statistically.

This is the same for Nylander from his draft class and his comparable Pastrnak and Ehlers who are both top 2 lines and key parts of the offense regularly, where Babcock moves Nylander down to 3rd and 4th lines when he struggles against stronger Qof C and plays the point on the #2pp unit. What will happen if Nylander is moved Center in time, will he be 3rd line C behind Matthews and Kadri and play in the Bozak spot now?

If Marner was playing for any other coach his ice time would be approaching 20 minutes a game and his point totals would be vastly improved.

Look at him and compare points per minute and you will be singing a different tune.

 

[93LEAFS]

Something else to consider when evaluating points early is where in the line-up depth chart those points are coming from in terms of QofC they play against and strength of their own teammates they play with.

In terms of Brock Boeser he is playing on the Nucks top line with Hovath as his C, and playing upfront on the PP#1 potting goals in traffic. Marner to this point in his development has been well insulated by Babs playing 3rd line duties and the point on the PP as he gets bigger and stronger and gains experience. The Leafs 3rd line of Bozak sees mainly 3rd and 4th lines & 2nd/3rd pairings of the opposition of QofC, it creates a talent mismatch for the Leafs line and when that trio gets hot can pile up the points.

Case in point here Boeser on the top line would face Bergeron at forward and Chara on D in QofC terms, similar to how Matthews has to go up against the best of the opposition nightly. Marner as a 3rd line RWer at present wouldn't need to play against Bergeron or Krejci lines (Bruins top 2 lines) as Matthews & Kadri lines would play head to head and that is a huge advantage when statistically you compare players without factoring in depth charts.

When Marner moves up into the top 2 lines of the Leafs how will his PPG rate look against better competition nightly? Due to his size will Marner always play the point on the PP to give him time and space to operate and keep him away from the heavy traffic areas up front, but where many of the goals are scored?. It will be excellent if Marner could maintain his current PPG rate when he faces better opposition talent because then it will leveling the playing surface for all comparable players and he would be considered a star player statistically.

This is the same for Nylander from his draft class and his comparable Pastrnak and Ehlers who are both top 2 lines and key parts of the offense regularly, where Babcock moves Nylander down to 3rd and 4th lines when he struggles against stronger Qof C and plays the point on the #2pp unit. What will happen if Nylander is moved Center in time, will he be 3rd line C behind Matthews and Kadri and play in the Bozak spot now?

Marner's line was targetted a bunch by opposing shut down lines last year, he didn't dominate 3rd and 4th lines. The dynamics of last chance balance out QOC over an 82 game season to an extent unless you see extreme usage.

Marner and Nylander also don't really play the point on the powerplay. We run a 1-3-1 which features shifts, but they both technically play the side-wall.

I mean, I'll select Bozak, Matthews and Kadri over the last year and a half. Here is how there quality of comp metrics break down.

Bozak: QOC CF%: 49.96
Matthews QOC CF%: 50.7
Kadri QOC CF%: 50.5%

Bozak TOI QOC: 28.77
Matthews TOI QOC: 29.34
Kadri TOI QOC: 29.51

 

[studebaker17]

Something else to consider when evaluating points early is where in the line-up depth chart those points are coming from in terms of QofC they play against and strength of their own teammates they play with.

In terms of Brock Boeser he is playing on the Nucks top line with Hovath as his C, and playing upfront on the PP#1 potting goals in traffic. Marner to this point in his development has been well insulated by Babs playing 3rd line duties and the point on the PP as he gets bigger and stronger and gains experience. The Leafs 3rd line of Bozak sees mainly 3rd and 4th lines & 2nd/3rd pairings of the opposition of QofC, it creates a talent mismatch for the Leafs line and when that trio gets hot can pile up the points.

Case in point here Boeser on the top line would face Bergeron at forward and Chara on D in QofC terms, similar to how Matthews has to go up against the best of the opposition nightly. Marner as a 3rd line RWer at present wouldn't need to play against Bergeron or Krejci lines (Bruins top 2 lines) as Matthews & Kadri lines would play head to head and that is a huge advantage when statistically you compare players without factoring in depth charts.

When Marner moves up into the top 2 lines of the Leafs how will his PPG rate look against better competition nightly? Due to his size will Marner always play the point on the PP to give him time and space to operate and keep him away from the heavy traffic areas up front, but where many of the goals are scored?. It will be excellent if Marner could maintain his current PPG rate when he faces better opposition talent because then it will leveling the playing surface for all comparable players and he would be considered a star player statistically.

This is the same for Nylander from his draft class and his comparable Pastrnak and Ehlers who are both top 2 lines and key parts of the offense regularly, where Babcock moves Nylander down to 3rd and 4th lines when he struggles against stronger Qof C and plays the point on the #2pp unit. What will happen if Nylander is moved Center in time, will he be 3rd line C behind Matthews and Kadri and play in the Bozak spot now?

Last time they played the Bruins, Bergeron line was straight up against Kadri/Nylander virtually every shift but Chara played a lot against Marner,JVR. That's without Mathews in the lineup .

Kadri line is more a 3rd line as a rule as a checking line that can scoreand Marner line as a 2nd scoring line so the idea they get so sheltered is crap. If you were an opposing coach you would most certainly play the best line you could against them. If anything your top scoring line in a head to head battle you hope to win against the Bozak lines defensive weakness. coaches wouldn't be keen on playing 4th lines or 3rd pairs against that line, that would be foolish.

 

[stickty111]

Barzal likely only becomes a 2nd line C. I mean there is a reason he dropped in the draft. Unsustainable shooting percentage doeant change that fact. He also has great players so that is a huge benefit.
Marner is already a 1st line winger playing with a top 6 winger and a 3rd line centre who is afraid of his own shadow
Despite lower overall quality linemates, Marner is better then Barzal(who cant show up for big games)

 

[Mr Hockey]

Last time they played the Bruins, Bergeron line was straight up against Kadri/Nylander virtually every shift but Chara played a lot against Marner,JVR. That's without Mathews in the lineup .

Kadri line is more a 3rd line as a rule as a checking line that can scoreand Marner line as a 2nd scoring line so the idea they get so sheltered is crap. If you were an opposing coach you would most certainly play the best line you could against them. If anything your top scoring line in a head to head battle you hope to win against the Bozak lines defensive weakness. coaches wouldn't be keen on playing 4th lines or 3rd pairs against that line, that would be foolish.

On the road the other teams are going to want to match up against Matthews and Babs will look for a Kadri match up which leaves the Marner line with a good match up.

example from the Pens game.
Primary match up:

• The Pens matched Crosby/Letang against Matthews/Rielly

Secondary match up:

• Babs matched Kadri against Malkin/Kessel

It usually goes something like that...

 

[Muston Atthews]

You’re schtick is tiresome and hilarious. You prop up your guy and just completely sewer the other guy

 

[Mr Hockey]

You’re schtick is tiresome and hilarious. You prop up your guy and just completely sewer the other guy

me?

 

[Muston Atthews]

me?

No, the guy who’s ripping Barzal a new one to prop up Marner

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Barzal likely only becomes a 2nd line C. I mean there is a reason he dropped in the draft. Unsustainable shooting percentage doeant change that fact. He also has great players so that is a huge benefit.
Marner is already a 1st line winger playing with a top 6 winger and a 3rd line centre who is afraid of his own shadow
Despite lower overall quality linemates, Marner is better then Barzal(who cant show up for big games)

how is his shooting percentage unsustainable? Barzal is fantastic, and him being a fantastic player doesn't take away from how good Marner is

 

[Mess]

Last time they played the Bruins, Bergeron line was straight up against Kadri/Nylander virtually every shift but Chara played a lot against Marner,JVR. That's without Mathews in the lineup .

Kadri line is more a 3rd line as a rule as a checking line that can scoreand Marner line as a 2nd scoring line so the idea they get so sheltered is crap. If you were an opposing coach you would most certainly play the best line you could against them. If anything your top scoring line in a head to head battle you hope to win against the Bozak lines defensive weakness. coaches wouldn't be keen on playing 4th lines or 3rd pairs against that line, that would be foolish.

Babcock either puts Matthews against the opposition best line or Kadri line defensively against them, and looks for mismatches with the Bozak line.

ATOI/g confirms Mitch, Bozak and JVR are 7th, 8th 9th/10th in ice time thus making the Leafs 3rd line. Marner gets 15:37 ATOI / season where all players on Matthews and Kadri lines get more icetime than Mitch.

Even in Marner's recent 4 point game he only got 13:15 ice time, because Babcock shelters the Bozak 3rd line.

 

[Raging Bull]

how is his shooting percentage unsustainable? Barzal is fantastic, and him being a fantastic player doesn't take away from how good Marner is

This guy gets it.

 

[Raging Bull]

Leaf fans always have a "grass is greener" complex.