Will Leafs Pursue Stamkos? Part 2

[deletethis]

Tampa Bay offering $8.5M per season probably means they're willing to go a little bit higher. To stay where you are at something like $9M per season for 8 seasons should be enough for most NHL players. But Kopitar got $10M from L.A. so who knows? These hockey agents are very competitive (and influencing) and hate to see their guys pass up money.

 

[Jerkini]

Here's another question for you all. Let's say the Leafs earmark $9.5-10 million on Stamkos but he re-signs in Tampa. Do you take another swing at UFA Victor Hedman for the same dollars the following year?

$10m seems high for a 40-50 point defender, but Hedman is a stud. It would seem ludicrous not to try if a player like that is available.

 

[Jerkini]

Tampa Bay offering $8.5M per season probably means they're willing to go a little bit higher. To stay where you are at something like $9M per season for 8 seasons should be enough for most NHL players. But Kopitar got $10M from L.A. so who knows? These hockey agents are very competitive (and influencing) and hate to see their guys pass up money.

Stamkos is younger and puts up more points. I think he's crazy if he settles for less than $10m per year. And i'm not even his agent.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Stamkos is younger and puts up more points. I think he's crazy if he settles for less than $10m per year. And i'm not even his agent.

Stamkos puts up more points and he is younger. That's 2 things in his favour but pretty much everything else in in Kopitar's favour.

 

[MJ65]

I believe that both sides will reach an agreement and Stammer is going to stay with Tampa. I have been saying that all along and am pretty confident that he is not going to hit the FA market

 

[Jerkini]

Stamkos puts up more points and he is younger. That's 2 things in his favour but pretty much everything else in in Kopitar's favour.

It's when you start paying a premium for "intangibles" that you run into cap problems IMO. Stamkos will get more than Kopitar.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

What if the Leafs offered Stamkos something like $12m x4? That's $48m in 4 years vs. a 7 or 8 year deal getting around $70m.

I'd be interested in that sort of contract as it shouldn't cause cap problems with needing to sign Marner/Nylander/whoever else.

After 4 years if he's still a really good player he can go for a max term contract and possibly end up making more depending where the cap is in 4 years.

I'd be worried about cap implications in years 5,6,7 if he signed here at max term, but before that I don't foresee any issues.

 

[carko32]

It's when you start paying a premium for "intangibles" that you run into cap problems IMO. Stamkos will get more than Kopitar.

That is true. But in Kopitar's case I think that intangibles are quite easy to notice, that is his defensive play and ability to be elite on both sides of rink regardless who is on the opponents team. That was probably a reason why he got close to Toews, who is for me only comparable for him.

If Leafs sign Stamkos, I hope it is for less than Kopitar got. If others sign Stamkos, I hope he becomes the highest paid hockey-player.

 

[dirk41]

It's when you start paying a premium for "intangibles" that you run into cap problems IMO. Stamkos will get more than Kopitar.

I agree that Kopitar is overpaid (well, I think he will be overpaid at the end of the deal), but he's getting paid, in part, for his tangible defensive assets. As an aside, Kopitar is actually has more points than Stamkos this season.

 

[ACC1224]

What if the Leafs offered Stamkos something like $12m x4? That's $48m in 4 years vs. a 7 or 8 year deal getting around $70m.

I'd be interested in that sort of contract as it shouldn't cause cap problems with needing to sign Marner/Nylander/whoever else.

After 4 years if he's still a really good player he can go for a max term contract and possibly end up making more depending where the cap is in 4 years.

I'd be worried about cap implications in years 5,6,7 if he signed here at max term, but before that I don't foresee any issues.

Leafs could offer it but it would make no sense for the Player to accept it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's when you start paying a premium for "intangibles" that you run into cap problems IMO. Stamkos will get more than Kopitar.

I'd argue that paying Stamkos the same as Kopitar = paying a premium for points and paying a premium for anything will get you into cap trouble. Historically, Kopitar gives you about 90% of the point production you get from Stamkos but he also brings a lot to the table that Stamkos doesn't. Being awesome defensively is not an intangible.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I agree that Kopitar is overpaid (well, I think he will be overpaid at the end of the deal), but he's getting paid, in part, for his tangible defensive assets. As an aside, Kopitar is actually has more points than Stamkos this season.

He's also getting paid in part for being a huge part of a couple of cup wins (same goes for Toews and Kane) and if I was an LA fan, I'd had no problem with that whatsoever. Also, LA is in win now mode, if they can add another cup to their total in the next couple of years I'm pretty sure they won't mind of Kopitar is overpaid while they're rebuilding 5 years down the road.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

the drop in Ice time.

He cant handle more ice time probably in part from the injury.
His numbers may have dropped off after MSL left.
But the Leafs don't have MSL either.

 

[Stephen]

I would hope they would have interest in Hedman regardless of Stamkos.

Yeah I'm all for that, but it just seems optimistic to UFA poach 2 stars from one organization in 2 years.

 

[dirk41]

He's also getting paid in part for being a huge part of a couple of cup wins (same goes for Toews and Kane) and if I was an LA fan, I'd had no problem with that whatsoever.

The problem with that logic is that the Cups have already been won, and they were won with team play. I don't see what a 2014 Cup,which is in the bank, has to do with Kopitar's caphit in 2022 based on a contract signed 2016. The contract has to be about value going forward, not about value provided in the past. If Kopitar is going to bring $80 million worth of value to the Kings, fine sign the damn thing.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'd argue that paying Stamkos the same as Kopitar = paying a premium for points and paying a premium for anything will get you into cap trouble. Historically, Kopitar gives you about 90% of the point production you get from Stamkos but he also brings a lot to the table that Stamkos doesn't. Being awesome defensively is not an intangible.

Agree with you. Being good in defense cannot be consider intangible. Bringing leadership, good teammate....those are intangibles.

 

[Gabriel426]

He cant handle more ice time probably in part from the injury.
His numbers may have dropped off after MSL left.
But the Leafs don't have MSL either.

Or the fact that TB got more talents and thus can spread the minutes is a reason his ice time is down.

From watching Stamkos plays, his speed and turn and stuff are the same. I don't think his injury is causing him to slow down.

 

[Gabriel426]

The problem with that logic is that the Cups have already been won, and they were won with team play. I don't see what a 2014 Cup,which is in the bank, has to do with Kopitar's caphit in 2022 based on a contract signed 2016. The contract has to be about value going forward, not about value provided in the past. If Kopitar is going to bring $80 million worth of value to the Kings, fine sign the damn thing.

Or another way to look at it is can LA get better value on other players with the 10mil spent on Kopitar.
I would say No to the next 4yrs. Maybe during the 5-6 yrs and probably yes to 7-8yrs. Kopitar might not be a 10million player comes in 7-8yr but he will at least be around 7mil player(cap rising in the next few yrs). Thus he is only being overpaid 3mil at that time.

 

[dirk41]

Or another way to look at it is can LA get better value on other players with the 10mil spent on Kopitar.

How? How does signing Kopitar for $10million now get better value on other players? If anything, it raises their price, too.

I would say No to the next 4yrs. Maybe during the 5-6 yrs and probably yes to 7-8yrs. Kopitar might not be a 10million player comes in 7-8yr but he will at least be around 7mil player(cap rising in the next few yrs). Thus he is only being overpaid 3mil at that time.

He could have negative value in those years. We don't know for sure, but we know that the vast majority of players start to decline in their late 20s, even elite players, and he'll be 29 when the deal STARTS.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The problem with that logic is that the Cups have already been won, and they were won with team play. I don't see what a 2014 Cup,which is in the bank, has to do with Kopitar's caphit in 2022 based on a contract signed 2016. The contract has to be about value going forward, not about value provided in the past. If Kopitar is going to bring $80 million worth of value to the Kings, fine sign the damn thing.

I understand your point and I'm not saying you're wrong, just offering up another way of looking at it.

I'll try to put it another way, having Kopitar on the team has value beyond what he brings on the ice at this point, he is a hero partly because of the huge role he played in bringing those cups to LA and I'm sure the fans want him on the team. That has value.

Let's say the Leafs win the cup in 2021 and 2023 and Marner is widely considered to be our best forward during those years. I'm sure many fans would rather overpay Marner and keep our hero in a Leaf uniform then quibble over a million or two.

My original point still stands also, LA is in win now mode. You risk overpaying Kopitar in 2022 sure, but that's the price you have to pay to keep him now when he's not overpaid and without him, you can kiss your cup dreams goodbye. Kopitar got a fair contract, his agent could have insisted in getting the same money as Toews and if LA didn't pay, someone would have I'm sure of that. Then again, LA was able to give him 8 years so it all evens out.

In the end, I have a feeling Stamkos will get the same money. It's a bit of an overpayment but that's the price you pay for signing big name players who are UFA's (or pending UFA's). It's less than Toews and Kane got (which is fair) but 10m is such a big line psychologically, the difference between 9.5 and 10m is be the same as the difference between 10 and 10.5 but there's just something about that 10m number ...

 

[ShaneFalco]

All the talk about Stamkos.......
We as Leaf fans should realize that high-end FA's use the Leafs for bargaining power but rarely, if ever, come here

 

[kk87]

All the talk about Stamkos.......
We as Leaf fans should realize that high-end FA's use the Leafs for bargaining power but rarely, if ever, come here

Yeah, like Babcock!

 

[thewave]

All the talk about Stamkos.......
We as Leaf fans should realize that high-end FA's use the Leafs for bargaining power but rarely, if ever, come here

Can't argue this.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yeah, like Babcock!

Can he play C?

 

[LeafsGeeks]

Elite talent like Stamkos almost never becomes available in free agency, especially at such a young age (26 when he hits the open market on July 1st). If he even has the slightest desire to come home we should absolutely pursue him, provided the AAV isn't insane. Anything under 10.5 for a true superstar playing for his hometown…he'd probably be the best player to ever wear a Maple Leafs jersey.

The best comparable I can come up with is Zdeno Chara signing with Boston in free agency. He had an incredible impact on their team - ended up being the core piece of a perennial cup contender. If we can get a player of Stamkos' calibre we absolutely have to pursue him, these opportunities simply don't present themselves anymore in a cap world.