Proposal: Who's Interested? Chiarot for two 2nd's and a B+ prospect

[lamp9post]

Ok so give us weber without chiarot

Sure thing. So you already saw from the table that:

Weber - Edmundson: 188 min; 52.8% Corsi
Weber - Chiarot: 477 min; 52.3% Corsi

So, pretty similar.

In much smaller sample sizes, you have:

Weber - Romanov: 47 min; 55.6% Corsi
Weber - Kulak: 40 min; 61.4% Corsi
Weber - Petry: 39 min; 58.2% Corsi

So how much weight do you place on the roughly 2 games worth of ice time Weber has played with Kulak, Petry, or Romanov in comparison to the majority of the season he played with Chiarot/Edmundson?

Well, even if you do weight it very highly, why not look at how Chiarot does away from Weber while we're at it?

Chiarot - Romanov: 63 min; 58% Corsi
Chiarot - Kulak: 95 min; 48.1% Corsi
Chiarot - Petry: 23 min; 62.3% Corsi

So Romanov and Petry actually did better when paired with Chiarot than they did with Weber! Of course, its also clear that the Kulak-Chiarot pairing struggled in comparison to Kulak-Weber.

Again, this is all in small samples, so you be the judge of what conclusions can be reached. To me it looks an awful lot like when Chiarot/Weber are played with lesser players in small samples, their Corsi goes up due to the likelihood they are playing sheltered minutes in more offensive situations. Whereas when they play together, it is as a shutdown pairing vs top opposition.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Any team that pays more then a 7th rounder for this guy's will be the biggest loser of the deadline.


He's so bad it's comical. Literally the worst Damn in the league levels of bad.

 

[Canadienna]

Some team will sign him next year and then it won't just be Habs fans signing his praises.

He's not a top pairing Dman, but he's so much better than he's given credit for on here. He's evolved a lot since his Winnipeg days.

Yes he has bad possession and shot share numbers, on a terrible team where everyone had quit for most of the year. Analytics should support your decision making but I feel like Chiarot is a perfect example of the limitations of some of these analyses from guys like JFresh.

Edit: I mean look at the post above mine

He's actually become underrated on here.

 

[The90]

Sure thing. So you already saw from the table that:

Weber - Edmundson: 188 min; 52.8% Corsi
Weber - Chiarot: 477 min; 52.3% Corsi

So, pretty similar.

In much smaller sample sizes, you have:

Weber - Romanov: 47 min; 55.6% Corsi
Weber - Kulak: 40 min; 61.4% Corsi
Weber - Petry: 39 min; 58.2% Corsi

So how much weight do you place on the roughly 2 games worth of ice time Weber has played with Kulak, Petry, or Romanov in comparison to the majority of the season he played with Chiarot/Edmundson?

Well, even if you do weight it very highly, why not look at how Chiarot does away from Weber while we're at it?

Chiarot - Romanov: 63 min; 58% Corsi
Chiarot - Kulak: 95 min; 48.1% Corsi
Chiarot - Petry: 23 min; 62.3% Corsi

So Romanov and Petry actually did better when paired with Chiarot than they did with Weber! Of course, its also clear that the Kulak-Chiarot pairing struggled in comparison to Kulak-Weber.

Again, this is all in small samples, so you be the judge of what conclusions can be reached. To me it looks an awful lot like when Chiarot/Weber are played with lesser players in small samples, their Corsi goes up due to the likelihood they are playing sheltered minutes in more offensive situations. Whereas when they play together, it is as a shutdown pairing vs top opposition.

Lol. So basically the worst stats of every other defender. Case closed.

 

[One Winged Angel]

I can’t see a team paying all of that for Chiarot. If Montreal gets that, good for them, but it seems like too much.

I’ve seen posters on here point to the return that David Savard fetched for Columbus last year and the gap in play between Savard and Chiarot is greater than many are willing to admit.

 

[The90]

Some team will sign him next year and then it won't just be Habs fans signing his praises.

He's not a top pairing Dman, but he's so much better than he's given credit for on here. He's evolved a lot since his Winnipeg days.

Yes he has bad possession and shot share numbers, on a terrible team where everyone had quit for most of the year. Analytics should support your decision making but I feel like Chiarot is a perfect example of the limitations of some of these analyses from guys like JFresh.

Edit: I mean look at the post above mine

He's actually become underrated on here.

The problem with the ‘bad numbers on a bad team’ is that even when you were winning in the playoffs his numbers were terrible. Couple that with every d partner he’s played with has actually seen a significant jump up in production when not playing with him.

@lamp9post this was supposed to be in response to your post.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

I can’t see a team paying all of that for Chiarot. If Montreal gets that, good for them, but it seems like too much.

I’ve seen posters on here point to the return that David Savard fetched for Columbus last year and the gap in play between Savard and Chiarot is greater than many are willing to admit.

Yeah 100% this, Savard was one of our worst D-men this year and Chiarot is one of our best - bar is not set high on what best means but there’s no comparison to be made

 

[Canadienna]

The problem with the ‘bad numbers on a bad team’ is that even when you were winning in the playoffs his numbers were terrible. Couple that with every d partner he’s played with has actually seen a significant jump up in production when not playing with him.

I don't feel "bad numbers on a bad team" is a fair representation of my post/argument.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Yeah 100% this, Savard was one of our worst D-men this year and Chiarot is one of our best - bar is not set high on what best means but there’s no comparison to be made

I meant Savard’s play in Columbus.

Savard in Columbus and Tampa is a significantly better defender than Chiarot now.

This year is another story, but if you’re going to use that trade as a reference point, you should also refer to his play in those two locations, as the trade occurred before he came to Montreal.

 

[The90]

I don't feel "bad numbers on a bad team" is a fair representation of my post/argument.

Sorry bud I responded to the wrong post. For the record I don’t think he’s a bad player, I just don’t think he’s worth anywhere near a first.

 

[lamp9post]

If you need to perform mental gymnastics to not see what’s right in front of you, that’s fine, but let’s not pretend like you didn’t just prove exactly what I said and back it up with numbers.

I'm not performing mental gymnastics, I just posted the facts. My posts were about the limitations of using a single datapoint like Corsi as a direct proxy of player value.

What exactly is your point, anyway? My posts weren't in direct response to you so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

I meant Savard’s play in Columbus.

Savard in Columbus and Tampa is a significantly better defender than Chiarot now.

This year is another story, but if you’re going to use that trade as a reference point, you should also refer to his play in those two locations, as the trade occurred before he came to Montreal.

Meh, pretty much same stats and Savard had a much better D Supporting cast

 

[The90]

I'm not performing mental gymnastics, I just posted the facts. My posts were about the limitations of using a single datapoint like Corsi as a direct proxy of player value.

What exactly is your point, anyway? My posts weren't in direct response to you so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

The stats you just posted literally showed that his d partners have better numbers without him than with.

 

[lamp9post]

The stats you just posted literally showed that his d partners have better numbers without him than with.

Yes, true.

Meaningless given the sample sizes, but true.

 

[The90]

Yes, true.

Meaningless given the sample sizes, but true.

No, it’s not. When you swap someone to the same position and can’t accept the results of that, that’s on your own bias.

 

[EveryDay]

Any team that pays more then a 7th rounder for this guy's will be the biggest loser of the deadline.


He's so bad it's comical. Literally the worst Damn in the league levels of bad.

You just show your hockey knowledge to everyone in here, thank you. You are literally the worst poster on the server levels of bad.

Thanks for showing up I guess....

 

[lamp9post]

No, it’s not. When you swap someone to the same position and can’t accept the results of that, that’s on your own bias.

Your refusal to acknowledge sample size, usage, and quality of competition is your bias.

The fact you think the 40 minutes Weber played with Kulak last season somehow reflects on Chiarot's value today is laughable.

Your shoulder must be sore...from reaching so hard.

 

[The90]

Your refusal to acknowledge sample size, usage, and quality of competition is your bias.

The fact you think the 40 minutes Weber played with Kulak last season somehow reflects on Chiarot's value today is laughable.

Your shoulder must be sore...from reaching so hard.

… yes 40 minutes. Of course that’s after the novel that was posted earlier that had every d partner that chiarot has had for the last 5 years has seen better numbers without than with him. But yeah, the 40 minutes was what I was going off of. Reaching indeed.

 

[lamp9post]

… yes 40 minutes. Of course that’s after the novel that was posted earlier that had every d partner that chiarot has had for the last 5 years has seen better numbers without than with him. But yeah, the 40 minutes was what I was going off of. Reaching indeed.

I know that post is your bible and all, but the bolded is just false. You can see examples of this in some of the charts I posted earlier, but here is a summary of examples that disprove the misguided claim.

This season:
Wideman has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Petry, Clague, Niku.
Petry has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Wideman, Kulak, Romanov, Clague
Niku has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Romanov, Savard
Romanov has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Savard, Kulak, Clague
There are more, but that's enough for now.

2020-21:
Petry has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Kulak, Weber, Edmundson, Romanov
Romanov has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Kulak, Weber, Edmundson, Petry, Oulette

2019-20:
Petry has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Mete, Scandella, Weber, Leskinen
Weber has better Corsi numbers with Chirot than he does with Kulak, Scandella, Mete, Petry, Fleury
Mete has better Corsi numbers with Chirot than he does with Weber, Fleury, Kulak
Kulak has better Corsi numbers with Chiarot than he does with Fleury, Mete, Reilly
There are more, but that's enough for this season.

However, none of this takes sample size into account, much like your bible. If we do, we can come to a much more reasonable and balanced analysis, rather than cherry picking micro examples to prove a point.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Meh, pretty much same stats and Savard had a much better D Supporting cast

Savard was definitely a better defender and a more highly regarded one at that. Chiarot wasn't thought of as a legitimate top-4 defender, Savard was.

But hey, if Montreal gets the return, good for them. I've got no skin in this fight. I just don't think the return will be as crazy as some are asking for.

Then again, HFBoards and social media asking prices are insane across the board.

 

[Huffer]

Some team will sign him next year and then it won't just be Habs fans signing his praises.

He's not a top pairing Dman, but he's so much better than he's given credit for on here. He's evolved a lot since his Winnipeg days.

Yes he has bad possession and shot share numbers, on a terrible team where everyone had quit for most of the year. Analytics should support your decision making but I feel like Chiarot is a perfect example of the limitations of some of these analyses from guys like JFresh.

Edit: I mean look at the post above mine

He's actually become underrated on here.

Chariot has value, but he's the same player he was in Winnipeg. The narrative that he's somehow much different is not true IMO.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Any team that pays more then a 7th rounder for this guy's will be the biggest loser of the deadline.


He's so bad it's comical. Literally the worst Damn in the league levels of bad.

Chiarot is only worth a 7th rounder? You know that if you have to exaggerate to prove your point, you don't really have a good point eh? "Litterally the worse Dman in the NHL". This one is a classic and deserves the Jordan GIF

 

[Habs Halifax]

Chariot has value, but he's the same player he was in Winnipeg. The narrative that he's somehow much different is not true IMO.

Chiarot is not the same player he was with the Jets. He's matured with more ice time/opportunity and has learned a lot from playing with Weber. Same as Petry with the Habs vs when he was with the Oilers. Players improve with more experience.

100% disagree that Chiarot is the same value or player on the ice as he was with the Jets. I've seen Chiarot come a long way from day 1 with the Habs to today. Thinking that players don't improve with more experience is foolish

 

[Huffer]

Chiarot is not the same player he was with the Jets. He's matured with more ice time/opportunity and has learned a lot from playing with Weber. Same as Petry with the Habs vs when he was with the Oilers. Players improve with more experience.

100% disagree that Chiarot is the same value or player on the ice as he was with the Jets. I've seen Chiarot come a long way from day 1 with the Habs to today. Thinking that players don't improve with more experience is foolish

That's fine, I just don't agree. Players generally go improve, especially in the early part of their careers. That was actually Chariot in Winnipeg. He worked his but off in the minors to carve out a role in the NHL. But at some point you are close to the player you are going to be. The analytics show that he's still very much close to the player he was in Winnipeg. And notice I'm not saying Chariot is a bad player, he definitely has his usefulness. But 100% disagree with the whole, he's so much better now than in Winnipeg idea.

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

Chiarot is not the same player he was with the Jets. He's matured with more ice time/opportunity and has learned a lot from playing with Weber. Same as Petry with the Habs vs when he was with the Oilers. Players improve with more experience.

100% disagree that Chiarot is the same value or player on the ice as he was with the Jets. I've seen Chiarot come a long way from day 1 with the Habs to today. Thinking that players don't improve with more experience is foolish

So his numbers suffer due to overuse but he's matured with more ice time? Which is it bud?