Who Wins The Conn Smythe Trophy?

[Fantomas]

If you have to go back 50 years, I think that it's debatable if that constitutes "precedent", but since we're going there, how about this for precedent:

• In 1982-83, Gretzky broke the all time assist record at 26 (it was previously 23) AND the all time points record at 38 (it was previously 35), but since they lost in the finals to the Islanders he didn't get the Smythe (Billy Smith won the it).
• In 1992-93, he finished the playoffs with 40 points, 15 more points than the next highest scorer on a finals team. But they lost to Montreal, so he didn't win the Smythe (again went to the goalie of the winner, Roy).

Those are much more relevant examples because (a) they are more recent and (b) they don't involve a goals record being broken, which is looked at a lot differently than assists or even points. The media fawns over goal totals, which is why they gave the Smythe to Marchessault last year despite Eichel absolutely carrying him. McDavid's assist record is great, but his low goal total really really hurts his chances of winning a smythe in a losing effort.

Um, everyone knows that good performances have been denied the Smythe in the past. The point people are making is that with precedent you just need one example to the contrary and that's enough to make a case.

I would even go further than that and say that precedent is irrelevant. Here's something novel: use your noggins.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Um, everyone knows that good performances have been denied the Smythe in the past. The point people are making is that with precedent you just need one example to the contrary and that's enough to make a case.

Sure, but a goals record isn't nearly the same as an assist record in the eyes of the media.

I would even go further than that and say that precedent is irrelevant. Here's something novel: use your noggins.

I would agree, but we aren't voting, the media is. Asking who you think will win the Conn Smythe is a very different question than asking who you think should win...

And history has shown that voters put a lot of emphasis on goals when voting for MVP awards. Marchessault's Conn Smythe, Matthews' Hart etc. They put even more emphasis on winning the cup when voting for the Conn Smythe.

 

[mr figgles]

If you have to go back 50 years, I think that it's debatable if that constitutes "precedent", but since we're going there, how about this for precedent:

• In 1982-83, Gretzky broke the all time assist record at 26 (it was previously 23) AND the all time points record at 38 (it was previously 35), but since they lost in the finals to the Islanders he didn't get the Smythe (Billy Smith won the it).
• In 1992-93, he finished the playoffs with 40 points, 15 more points than the next highest scorer on a finals team. But they lost to Montreal, so he didn't win the Smythe (again went to the goalie of the winner, Roy).

Those are much more relevant examples because (a) they are more recent and (b) they don't involve a goals record being broken, which is looked at a lot differently than assists or even points. The media fawns over goal totals, which is why they gave the Smythe to Marchessault last year despite Eichel absolutely carrying him. McDavid's assist record is great, but his low goal total really really hurts his chances of winning a smythe in a losing effort.


Gretzky did that in 1983 (set the record for assists AND points) but still lost the Smythe because the Islanders beat them in the final.

Smith and Roy were brick walls in those finals series. Smith had a .953 sv% and Gretzky only had 4 assists. Bob was looking like a brick wall, then came period 3 of game 3, and he followed that up by getting lit up the next game. It‘s probably going to be close, but it shouldn‘t be. Bob and Barkov have been pretty good. McDavid has been historic.

 

[Fantomas]

Sure, but a goals record isn't nearly the same as an assist record in the eyes of the media.

I would agree, but we aren't voting, the media is. Asking who you think will win the Conn Smythe is a very different question than asking who you think should win...

And history has shown that voters put a lot of emphasis on goals when voting for MVP awards. Marchessault's Conn Smythe, Matthews' Hart etc. They put even more emphasis on winning the cup when voting for the Conn Smythe.

I don't think it matters what we think the media will do. These discourses seem pointless. But we absolutely should bully them if they do the wrong thing. It's the only way they will learn.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

From the sounds of it, Bob being pulled killed his Smythe chances. According to Frank Seravalli who has a vote on the matter. Alternatively he also says McDavid is a candidate, but only if the series makes it 6 games. SO currently its looking it Barkovs to lose.

I think if the Panthers win this 4-1, it is a slam dunk for Bob, he ain't dead yet. 6 or 7 games and the calculus gets more interesting for sure. I think the only "guarantee" with this is, if Oil wins in 7, McDavid wins the Conn Smythe without question.

 

[blundluntman]

I think if the Panthers win this 4-1, it is a slam dunk for Bob, he ain't dead yet. 6 or 7 games and the calculus gets more interesting for sure. I think the only "guarantee" with this is, if Oil wins in 7, McDavid wins the Conn Smythe without question.

If McDavid leads them to a game 7 comeback ait'll be the greatest Conn Smythe win of all time. Definitely don't think it'll happen but what a sight to witness that'd be. But even if not, he has a good chance at winning it if they at least force a game 6 and/or he puts up 40 points.

 

[wetcoast]

Not even close to being a consideration now.. only if he had continued to produce like he did vs LA.

There likely 4 Oilers and 5 Panthers more worthy than Draisaitl for MVP.

My bad I misread that and thought people were talking about McDavid who has been the clear Conn smythe candidate for the Oilers for a while now and yes Draisatl is off a bit, which kind of makes the case for McDavid stronger right?

MVP is for all playoffs and not just SC finals.
If Bobrovski leaks again in game 5 then it's going to be wide open for MVP with Barkov likely leading the way

Sure but both Barkov and especially BOB weren't the best Florida players in the first round either.

In the second round Barkov really did step up and BOB was okay but not great.

3rd round Barkov wasn't very good and BOB really did step up but the NYR were clearly outclassed in that series and the 4-2 is really flattering to them.

BOB has been much better in the finals except getting blown out in game 4 but he also has been lucky with multiple posts and crossbars and frankly missed Oiler chances in the first 3 games.

 

[Cup or Bust]

If the Oilers make it a 6 or 7 game series McDavid might have a chance but if it ends tomorrow I think it has to be Bobrovsky, he looked absolutely unbeatable the first couple games of the series against one of the best offensive teams in the league.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Bob

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

Sure but both Barkov and especially BOB weren't the best Florida players in the first round either.

In the second round Barkov really did step up and BOB was okay but not great.

Panthers beat Lightning 4-1 in the first round with Bob saving 1.3 goals above expected and notching 31 saves in Game 5.

The Bruins are arguably superior to any Western Conference team and have a top goalie in Swayman. In Florida's four wins, BOS totaled 6 goals (5 EV). BOS scored 2 in one of their 2 wins.

I think Bobrovsky was better than just okay when it counted.

 

[JackSlater]

The Conn Smythe is a goofy trophy with one and rarely two team having candidates and the voters making up criteria on their own. McDavid is the obvious literal most valuable player in these playoffs, but Bobrovsky (assuming Florida wins) looks like the top candidate according to tradition.

I'll add this - the media love a narrative when it comes to these votes. There was a lot of media resistance to Gretzky when he was young, but people are generally pulling for McDavid. He will get a lot of votes even if Edmonton loses - he is obvious best player in these playoffs, he broke a record, and Florida doesn't have any candidates who blow you away. I'd still bet on Bobrovsky or Barkov (in that order) to win it but McDavid probably gets a far share of the vote no matter what happens going forward. I can't see McDavid winning if Edmonton loses the next game but if he picks up a few points (40 is a nice round number) and Edmonton makes it to six there will be lots of media talk.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I know. A travesty. The NHL is not above looking like a joke.

Gretzky didn’t do much in the Islanders series. No goals and 4 assists in four games as the Oilers were swept. You’re not winning the Smythe when you’re swept in the final.

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

Gretzky didn’t do much in the Islanders series. No goals and 4 assists in four games as the Oilers were swept. You’re not winning the Smythe when you’re swept in the final.

I mean it happened like 7 years before that. But I get the sentiment. Just don’t agree with it

 

[TruePowerSlave]

There's no way that McDavid should win over Bob if the Oliers lose the series 4-1. I don't care how many points he scored.

If they lose in seven? Different story.

McDavid is by far the best player of the playoffs, there´s no denying it. On a historic run and broke Gretzky´s record. Barkov or Bob have clearly not performed at that level.

I reject the idea that the Smythe is purely a winning team trophy or that if it goes 7 then it´s a discussion.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

McDavid is by far the best player of the playoffs, there´s no denying it. On a historic run and broke Gretzky´s record. Barkov or Bob have clearly not performed at that level.

I reject the idea that the Smythe is purely a winning team trophy or that if it goes 7 then it´s a discussion.

If it goes 7, he'll win. If he loses tomorrow he won't.

 

[CashMash]

If it's on the Panthers, I hope they give it to Barkov for the most stable performance throughout the playoffs, as well as being a leader in points, in the locker room, and defensively.

But, seeing as McDavid is actually breaking records, it's fine if he gets it too. If it's as a consolation prize, I don't think he will be too happy about it. The Panthers likely won't care as long as they win the cup.

If the Oilers had gotten swept, there's no way I'd give it to one of them, but the Oilers really seem to live and die by how Connor is performing.

 

[karltonian]

I'd say barkov and bobrovsky are about tied right now and whoever has the better rest of the series will win it.

 

[bobholly39]

I'd say barkov and bobrovsky are about tied right now and whoever has the better rest of the series will win it.

Barkov/Bob being tied could actually allow McDavid to win. I posted this in the other thread but...

In my opinion - most voters are likely to vote for one of Bob or Barkov as you say if Panthers win in 5....but will then say "ok, I had to vote for Florida player since they won, but McDavid was so good he definitely deserved my 2nd place vote...and the other Panther gets the 3rd".

So if McDavid gets a majority of 2nd place votes, along with a cpl of first place votes, and if Bob/Barkov split the first place votes (and therefore also split the 3rd place votes)....McDavid wins.

It would be a very lame way for him to win...I'd rather he win if Oilers win cup, or at least that he wins by getting a majority of first place votes - but the way the voting works, I think this scenario I laid out is pretty plausible.

 

[traffic cone]

Barkov/Bob being tied could actually allow McDavid to win. I posted this in the other thread but...

In my opinion - most voters are likely to vote for one of Bob or Barkov as you say if Panthers win in 5....but will then say "ok, I had to vote for Florida player since they won, but McDavid was so good he definitely deserved my 2nd place vote...and the other Panther gets the 3rd".

So if McDavid gets a majority of 2nd place votes, along with a cpl of first place votes, and if Bob/Barkov split the first place votes (and therefore also split the 3rd place votes)....McDavid wins.

It would be a very lame way for him to win...I'd rather he win if Oilers win cup, or at least that he wins by getting a majority of first place votes - but the way the voting works, I think this scenario I laid out is pretty plausible.

Seems like you don't know how the voting for Conn Smythe works.

Every voter has two different sets of votes: one for each team winning. There's zero chance McDavid is in anyone's top2 for the Panthers win scenario. Zero.

 

[CN8]

I don't quarrel with your analysis of McDavid's numbers. I do believe the voters will vote for Sergei if the Panthers win in 6 or less and I don't think the vote will be close. Barkov has had a great playoff run and has been amazingly solid, but he won't be winning Conn Smythe.

Many if not most neutral folks agree Bobrovsky has been the difference in the three wins. Prior to the finals, he outplayed the best goalie in hockey, who wasn't exactly slumping at the time, and beat Swayman as well. This play, coupled with Florida's first ever cup, makes him a lock for the trophy, again, IMHO and assuming this happens in G5 or G6. I think it is generally understood voters consistently afford the finals more weight than the first three rounds, though this isn't written in stone. Conspiracy is not the reason only one skater has won CS from a team that didn't hoist the Cup in 57 years.

McDavid had glorious numbers Saturday, but they were also essentially irrelevant (not particularly valuable) as the Oilers were up 3-1 before he notched a single point. Not his fault, but that's the way the game went. He's the best player on the ice and on the planet, no argument from me. But that is not what the trophy is about.

If this series extends to G7, it will be a hoot to see what happens. And as a neutral watcher, I hope it does, as I hate baseball, and the idea of the Cup being decided in one game for all the marbles next Monday sounds like a blast. I also truly believe that is McDavid's only realistic shot at the CS.

Maybe Agee his last assists weren’t as essential but ask any oilers fan and I think they’d say that goal to be up 3 instead of 2 to start the 2 nd period was huge

 

[BHD]

Bobrovsky. Barkov and maybe Verhaeghe would be the only skaters I'd consider from the Panthers.

McDavid for the Oilers, obviously.

 

[Drake1588]

I had Barkov and Bobrovsky in a dead heat before Bob allowed three and then five goals (before getting pulled) in the last couple of games. I might lean Barkov now.

 

[Over the volcano]

It's got to be McDavid. I mean what he's doing is historic - currently tied for 5th all time for a single season playoff and has the most pts in a playoff run the last 30 years. Tip the cap.

 

[voxel]

Seems like you don't know how the voting for Conn Smythe works.

Every voter has two different sets of votes: one for each team winning. There's zero chance McDavid is in anyone's top2 for the Panthers win scenario. Zero.

He’s not wrong on how voting works. Here was the 22 vote sheet

 

[cupface52]

Can Barkov really win the Smythe while McDavid is 17(~80%) points ahead of him?

Does Bob win the Smythe despite being at best the 3rd best goalie these playoffs?