Who does LA pick #2

[Rorschach]

This makes more sense for why you prefer him and my previous post was being written prior to you once again discussing the next season v. the season after. I obviously wholeheartedly disagree with that thinking as it is extremely shortsighted but I at least understand the real basis of your argument.

In regards to the bolded, however, you are placing way too much emphasis on this since this league full of men has a ton of warts on it. I mean, Wayne Simpson! Who the hell is this guy? Well he's apparently the equivalent of the Art Ross Trophy winner for the DEL.

Stutzle's numbers are impressive and I'm not saying they aren't, but the DEL is consistently ranked behind the KHL, SEL, Liiga and the Czech leagues.

I just don't think you can look at one season in the DEL and one WJC and be like "This kid has proven himself but Byfield hasn't". I have no issue with believing he is more NHL ready, but I can't get on board the thought train of Stutzle being so accomplished.

This is just how I'm weighing these things and I'm interested in others seeing my perspective but I don't care if they don't adopt my perspective. I'm no where near 100% certain either, after all.

One thing is that I am writing based on what I've read other people here have said, either what I read in the past here or the person I'm directly quoting. On top of that, also in the poll I made, HF Kings have stated they prefer 5 to 1 QB over Stutzle (I only recently converted to Stutzle...first I was QB all the way, then Drysdale for a moment, now Stutzle). I don't think it should be 5 to 1 but no matter...I don't bother criticizing Stutzle not because he's above criticism in my mind (he's from Germany, he can't have no question marks), it's because there's no need. It looks like everything I'm saying is against QB because that's the only point (5 to 1) that is worth debating about.

Ironically, in McKenzie's polling of 10 actual NHL scouts, 1 in 5 has QB outside of the top five (4/5 have him top 3). 10 in 10 had Stutzle top 3. Coincidence?

 

[Peter James Bond III]

After reading every post, the pundits like Wheeler, Pronman, etc...and watching tons of footage, I'm giving the edge to Stutzle. It comes down to
in the way that Lafreniere is a cut above, in terms of ability, prowess, consistency, confidence, production and being the best overall player in this draft, I feel that
Stutzle is closer to 1B to Alexis, than Byfield is 1B to Alexis. I will have no qualms, if Yannetti and the Kings go for Byfield. I trust him more than anyone and a lot
more than myself. I don't eat, sleep, lose sleep and breathe one iota he does and glad he's in charge.

I believe Stutzle has a level of dedication, focus, drive, determination, work ethic, elite hockey sense, a pro's mentality, skills, mindset, that will propel
him to be close to as good as Lafreniere. Lafreniere will probably be the best of the class in that he has all that, but a higher level of goal scoring ability.
Stutzle is a better skater than Lafren, though and that alone, will give him a shot at being 2nd best of the class. I am NOT saying that QB lacks drive, focus..it's just that I think TS oozes it.

Byfield has the size advantage and it is an adavantage in a few ways for sure. But if you use that size like Keith Primeau, it's not a big thng.
I think Byfield will use his size and grow into his body. Byfield has the better shot, has no problems capitalizing on chances, makes his teammamtes
better...but then again, Stutzle was RUNNING a powerplay at 17 in the DEL. They said he was the catalyst on their PP and there's tons of footage
that depict that. You also cannot say he's a LW, when he's played C all his life, until the DEL. Actually, it's a bonus he can play either. if Vilardi
or Turcotte cannot attain 1C, Stutzle has the skating, sense and abilty to be that. Maybe not next year or the year after, but within 3 years, I believe. As far as TS' shot? It's not weak. It's not elite. It will get better, I believe. Part of attianing a better shot that is confidience, technique and work. It's easier to develop a better shot, than attain an elite ability to skate through defenses like swiss cheese...and I don't care if the DEL is not the greatest bastien of skill and defense...TS does it now and will do it in the NHL. It's elite, period...like Pronman says Kaliyev's shot is WORLD ELITE, period..whether or not, he's in the NHL.

I like moxie, chutzpah, and that brazen attitude...when it is under control and not with arrogance, or ability to back it up. I think Stutzle has that.
It's this, the elite skating, the elite hockey sense, that put me at TS 55 / QB 45. I am not anti QB and appreciate his tools and ability for certain.
There's a reason a few scouts had QB at 5 or 6. Not sure what that was, but it should be noted....although not to be an alarm.

I am not so worried that TS may not score as many goals as QB. I think with TS' hockey sense, playmaking abilities, and running a PP
like a boss...the Kaliyev's, Fagemo's, Turcotte's may be able to put 5 to 7 more goals up, from TS' playmaking ability. Not saying
that QB doesn't make plays. I just think TS has an edge in that area. Size creates space, sure...but so does the way TS cuts through
zones and a mad East - West game. It's like how the F, did Mike Krushelnyski score over 40 goals? This is a maybe 20 goal guy.
It's because 99 and Messier, etc enable him to attain that. I think in the same way, a Kaliyev can possibly be a 40 goal player,
instead of a 30 goal player, just playing alongside TS. Could Arty do that playing alonsgside QB? Perhaps. Hell, next week
I may be 50/50 on the 2 of these players. I'll just say, I'm glad the hockey lotto gods smiled on the Kings and one of
these studs will be King.

To add...someone wrote about TS...that he has the Peter Forsberg mentality "game, here I am" and goes out that he's going to make impact in that game. The thing about QB WJT....sure, he's 17 and he's out there and not looking 'out of place'...but then there's 17 yr old Lafreniere going out that and having impact and being like the 'game, here I am" look. That counts for something and I think TS has that.

 

[BigKing]

This is just how I'm weighing these things and I'm interested in others seeing my perspective but I don't care if they don't adopt my perspective. I'm no where near 100% certain either, after all.

One thing is that I am writing based on what I've read other people here have said, either what I read in the past here or the person I'm directly quoting. On top of that, also in the poll I made, HF Kings have stated they prefer 5 to 1 QB over Stutzle (I only recently converted to Stutzle...first I was QB all the way, then Drysdale for a moment, now Stutzle). I don't think it should be 5 to 1 but no matter...I don't bother criticizing Stutzle not because he's above criticism in my mind (he's from Germany, he can't have no question marks), it's because there's no need. It looks like everything I'm saying is against QB because that's the only point (5 to 1) that is worth debating about.

Ironically, in McKenzie's polling of 10 actual NHL scouts, 1 in 5 has QB outside of the top five (4/5 have him top 3). 10 in 10 had Stutzle top 3. Coincidence?

My main issue with your reasoning is taking a guy who might contribute to the NHL team next year while also saying that QB might be the better player at the end of next season. Why sell multiple years short for the immediate gratification? I don't really have a problem with someone liking Stutzle more, I just need it to be because they think he will be the better player always and not just in 2021.

The issue with the scouts has been discussed: a case of over analyzing one player and then falling in love with another late in the scouting season. Doesn't mean it is wrong to have Stutzle in the Top 3 but Byfield has been picked apart for a long time as the consensus #2 and the "could he challenge for #1" hype that occurred prior to the season starting. Look no further to Doughty/Bogosian. Doughty put up back-to-back awesome seasons and a killer WJC but Bogosian had a fantastic breakout season in his draft year and all of a sudden it was a thing. Byfield has been locked in at #2. Follows up a CHL rookie of the year season by putting up huge numbers as a 17 year old on a team with little help. Stutzle goes from a Top 10 pick to possibly 2OA based on basically one season.

It isn't a big deal though because the scouts are wrong a lot. Zegras probably goes #3 at minimum in a re-draft of last year but he probably wasn't even in many scout's Top 5. All of this arguing over QB/TS might turn in to us being mad that Blake didn't trade down to take Drysdale or Rossi.

For me, I love the late birthday and the OHL production that I can compare in an apples-to-apples scenario. I love the size/skill/speed combo as it is much rarer to find it in that type of frame v. an average frame. He is less risky to me because I am more comfortable in OHL projections than I am with DEL projections.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Craig Button with great insight and analysis of some of the 2020 draft eligible prospects as well as Kings prospects, courtesy of @All The Kings Men.

 

[Fishhead]

Absolutely. But if we're talking defensive awareness and systems, that's the least of my worries.

Yea for sure. It's not often that a guy comes along with no concerns like Laf. The best thing about the concerns with QB is they can absolutely be fixed. It's much harder to change things like trying to get someone to shoot more, or if they have IQ problems. I prefer QB at #2 over Stutzle for a couple reasons, the key to me is that 10 month gap. When watching the kid on the ice, he's so physically mature that it's easy to forget that he might not even have a drivers license yet. I think Stutzle is a little ahead now, but thinking about Byfield 10 months from now leads to me think he will be even more impressive.

 

[Sleeping Dog]

I just bought a Byfield jersey - hope LA picks him or I wasted a lot of $$$!

Looks good to me!

 

[cyclones22]

Yea for sure. It's not often that a guy comes along with no concerns like Laf. The best thing about the concerns with QB is they can absolutely be fixed. It's much harder to change things like trying to get someone to shoot more, or if they have IQ problems. I prefer QB at #2 over Stutzle for a couple reasons, the key to me is that 10 month gap. When watching the kid on the ice, he's so physically mature that it's easy to forget that he might not even have a drivers license yet. I think Stutzle is a little ahead now, but thinking about Byfield 10 months from now leads to me think he will be even more impressive.

I like Stutzle and he was on my wish-list when we thought we might be drafting 4th thinking Ottawa would draft QB and Drysdale at 2/3. But dude had 7 goals last season with a significant amount of ice time and PP time. For as awesome as he looked with the puck and passing in the WJC. he didn't score a goal. Kopitar is our primary assist man, but he's also our primary goal scorer year in and year out. We need goal scorers badly. I also want a player who can stand and produce on his own on occasion. You're really depending on Arty, Fagemo and Madden becoming NHL level goal scorers (I hope they are!) in order for Stutzle to really reach his potential if he can't be a credible goal scoring threat. Having finishers for teammates gives you Marner production if you're an elite passer. Having less finishers gives you Barzal numbers. Kopitar can be an elite #1 center because if he only scores 75 points (25g/50a) in a season, he's an absolute beast in all 3 zones and excels in all situations. That's what I value at #2.

 

[BigKing]

For whatever it is worth, Wheeler was asked in a Q&A today which player would be overrated or a bust from this draft and he stated it would be Stutzle if he is taken #2, although he wouldn't be a "bust". Makes sense since he has him ranked #7 so he feels going at #2 is overrating the player.

 

[The Lukeman]

Really? They should draft someone else then.

Ha. You know I actually like the lists the Button puts out. They aren't perfect but they are valid opinions. He is a former GM, so his lists feel more like the GM prospective of the game. Maybe not the most accurate, but these are likely what the lists look like from GM to GM. Specific players are high on the board, while some may be very low and the team doesn't like. (Ex: Cole Caufield was 5 last year, but Turcotte was 10).

Bob Mckenzie's list is a general consensus list, which averages out a bunch of different scouts opinions to give a broad overlook of the draft.

I've watched like a dozen mock drafts by amateurs to the pros...nearly all of them are picking Byfield for us. Only Bob McKenzie's projection as a major list is showing Stutzle as #2 publicly. Most of the mock drafts however are being based on reports that are two months+ old...I think by draft time, things will have changed a lot. Sanderson may be top five...so may be Raymond.

Stutzle and Byfield both had 5 votes for 2, but Stutzle got placed ahead of Byfield because Stutzle got 5 votes for 3, while Byfield only got 3 votes for 3. Its basically a dead even heat in that case.

 

[BigKing]

Ha. You know I actually like the lists the Button puts out. They aren't perfect but they are valid opinions. He is a former GM, so his lists feel more like the GM prospective of the game. Maybe not the most accurate, but these are likely what the lists look like from GM to GM. Specific players are high on the board, while some may be very low and the team doesn't like. (Ex: Cole Caufield was 5 last year, but Turcotte was 10).

Bob Mckenzie's list is a general consensus list, which averages out a bunch of different scouts opinions to give a broad overlook of the draft.



Stutzle and Byfield both had 5 votes for 2, but Stutzle got placed ahead of Byfield because Stutzle got 5 votes for 3, while Byfield only got 3 votes for 3. Its basically a dead even heat in that case.

I just think that Button looks like a cartoon character, so I hold that against him. Then I hold against him the fact that he wasn't a good GM.

Mainly though, his takes on the Kings that didn't age well are legendary. That being said, I'm just joking around about not taking Byfield.

I'm not joking around about Button looking like a cartoon character, however.

 

[The Lukeman]

I just think that Button looks like a cartoon character, so I hold that against him. Then I hold against him the fact that he wasn't a good GM.

Mainly though, his takes on the Kings that didn't age well are legendary. That being said, I'm just joking around about not taking Byfield.

I'm not joking around about Button looking like a cartoon character, however.

Lmao you haven't said anything that wasn't true. Is it draft day yet?

 

[Rorschach]

Ha. You know I actually like the lists the Button puts out. They aren't perfect but they are valid opinions. He is a former GM, so his lists feel more like the GM prospective of the game. Maybe not the most accurate, but these are likely what the lists look like from GM to GM. Specific players are high on the board, while some may be very low and the team doesn't like. (Ex: Cole Caufield was 5 last year, but Turcotte was 10).

Bob Mckenzie's list is a general consensus list, which averages out a bunch of different scouts opinions to give a broad overlook of the draft.



Stutzle and Byfield both had 5 votes for 2, but Stutzle got placed ahead of Byfield because Stutzle got 5 votes for 3, while Byfield only got 3 votes for 3. Its basically a dead even heat in that case.

Correct. The question or main thing is, two different scouts had QB outside the top five at number six.

 

[KopitarFAN]

 

[King'sPawn]

Ironically, in McKenzie's polling of 10 actual NHL scouts, 1 in 5 has QB outside of the top five (4/5 have him top 3). 10 in 10 had Stutzle top 3. Coincidence?

Interesting for sure, but ultimately meaningless.

One writer for Dobber Prospects said Byfield could be the best player from the draft. How many say Stutzle could be better than Lafreniere?

Brian Burke said at the time of the draft that Morgan Rielly was No 1 on their draft board. There were plenty of laughs and "of course he's #1 on their board. They drafted him."

Nobody else had Rielly No 1. But he's looking better than the four drafted prior.

Teams and scouts have different values, watch different games, and have different discussions which influence their perceptions.

While it would always be reassuring to read X player is the consensus second best player in the draft to make us all agree, we're not getting that this year. We're instead getting two players who are arguably very close (in my MM article, Stutzle's average was 2.375 and Byfield 2.75 when I averaged their rankings).

I am still 100% on Byfield. I've been expecting him to go No 2 before the lottery. But I was hoping for a top-3 pick, as it would be a very easy choice for me.

 

[Rorschach]

My main issue with your reasoning is taking a guy who might contribute to the NHL team next year while also saying that QB might be the better player at the end of next season. Why sell multiple years short for the immediate gratification? I don't really have a problem with someone liking Stutzle more, I just need it to be because they think he will be the better player always and not just in 2021.

The equation won't balance if you leave off something at either side of it. In this case, what is being left off of the other side of "me stating QB might be better" is the implied "Stutzle might be better as well" at the end of next season because my point is, both are a bunch question marks as prospects (by nature) but both are similar caliber of prospects in terms of ceiling. Stutzle is simply further along his development path already than QB and thus QB a series of significant question marks more. Both are A grade prospects. But I have to give the edge in likeliness of reaching potential to Stutzle. HF used to evaluate and rank all of the top prospects of each team, align them by position and then give the team an overall ranking.

Let's say we give the first grade as the ceiling, upside. Then the second grade is how likely they are at their current development, either how young they are or how overaged they are to make that ceiling.
Stutzle to me is A- and B+
Byfield is A- and C+
Rossi is B+ and A-

Rossi is further along in development and is a lesser player in terms of ceiling when compared to QB and Stutzle so his first grade is clearly one tier lower. But he is very well developed, both in accomplishment and physically as well. He appears to be ready for NHL games next year for sure, even if not as a first line player. Stutzle, while having elite wheels and sense, was a bit too slight so he needed to add a significant amount of muscle so he misses the A tier for readiness. QB is in the C tier for readiness because he still has to play his entire 18yo season and accomplish a full season of domination at both juniors and at the junior tournaments.

Given both are A- to me in ceiling, why not pick the guy who is B+ ready over the guy who is C+ ready and has a greater chance to bust?

Lafreniere would be A- and A
He's a franchise player who proved everything he could prove.

Crosby would have been A+ and A, and so would McDavid...ceiling of possible top 10 greatest of all time and fully ready to start and be a star immediately in the NHL.
A+ and A+ would be someone like Lemieux, the greatest 1OA of all time.

So I acknowledge both Stutzle and QB are A- prospects, ceiling-wise. I feel Stutzle is further along so he has the edge and I think others who may feel the same are ranking QB as 3rd overall now.

Here's someone who feels similarly: Connor McMullet - QB appears to be less consistent due to youth but the difference is tiny
2. Tim Stutzle - The gap between the players in this tier are razor-thin. That said, Stutzle's skating and vision along with the fact that he's proven himself against men is why he leads this tier. I think he's got a very got shot at being a Matthew Barzal type player. Yes, I think he'll be a center in the NHL.

3. Quinton Byfield - Byfield had an impressive season, but he doesn't have the consistent shift-to-shift impact that some of the others do. Maybe I've just caught his bad games, but he can float and plays to passively. He is young, however, and has lots of untapped potential as he still hasn't figured out how to use his size. He could definitely prove me wrong with this ranking; he certainly has the tools to do so.

 

[funky]

You're correct but I have to argue against what I see/read here and I keep seeing people giving counter-arguments and my counters are mirrors of their arguments. Every person I see is drooling about size and projections, and arguing that...or they are saying we have lots of time. My perspective is, we don't have time, we have a surer thing, the 2OA is too expensive to gamble, size is not that big of a deal just because we had Kopitar (that's a Kings fan projection), and both players have similar elite ceilings so it's not a "mistake" as you say.

If we pick the NHL-ready player who projects to be the first line player and give up the potential top 3 player in the league, that would be a mistake, I agree. That's not this case, that's selling Stutzle very short or way, way overestimating QB's 2/3rds of a 17yo junior season, perhaps.

Surer thing does not mean sure thing. It just means less risk, not the absence of risk. QB is just much riskier. And I like to mitigate risk when I can, especially when the payoffs are projected to be similar. Also, discounting size, to a degree, is not penalizing for size. I never said anything like he's big and therefore clumsy or something...the guy QB is an athletic phenom. We're not comparing apples to oranges (at least I'm not) here, we're comparing apples to apples...I prefer red delicious and I'm going to eat it right now...you prefer tart perhaps because you want to bake me a pie...I'll be full of apples and happy one way or another.

Looking at what the experts are writing I would argue that they are placing Byfield at 2 or 3 rated at his current skill set and projection. Many of them are saying that if he continues to grow and fill in the holes he may just bypass Lafrenière.

I love Stutzle too but after watching constant videos of him on the PP either shoot wide, into the goalie or pass the puck off to a teammate to score his shot does worry me. So worse case if that shot doesn’t improve we end up with a fast, two way winger that can set up teammates. That is fine as well.

Watching videos of Byfield that guy already knows what to do with a puck near the net. It’s not something that he has to learn, it’s nothing to do with size, the guy can stick handle in a phone booth and can shoot very hard and accurate. He can already skate, he plays the pivot position, is good on his edges, and this is really with him just learning how to use his size. Will there be growth yes, but worse case scenario you move a 6-5 230 pound guy that can fly and shoot to the wing. With the Chara’s , Herman’s and Weber’s of the league being fewer and further in between who of our new style pint-size defenseman are going to stop that bull?

 

[KopitarFAN]

Interesting nugget from this interview when talking about Vilardi, Turcotte or Thomas possibly moving to the wing, he said "centers move to wing, you don't see wings move to center". Tells me whether they go Stützle or Byfield, they want a center.

 

[King'sPawn]

The equation won't balance if you leave off something at either side of it. In this case, what is being left off of the other side of "me stating QB might be better" is the implied "Stutzle might be better as well" at the end of next season because my point is, both are a bunch question marks as prospects (by nature) but both are similar caliber of prospects in terms of ceiling. Stutzle is simply further along his development path already than QB and thus QB a series of significant question marks more. Both are A grade prospects. But I have to give the edge in likeliness of reaching potential to Stutzle. HF used to evaluate and rank all of the top prospects of each team, align them by position and then give the team an overall ranking.

Let's say we give the first grade as the ceiling, upside. Then the second grade is how likely they are at their current development, either how young they are or how overaged they are to make that ceiling.
Stutzle to me is A- and B+
Byfield is A- and C+
Rossi is B+ and A-

Rossi is further along in development and is a lesser player in terms of ceiling when compared to QB and Stutzle so his first grade is clearly one tier lower. But he is very well developed, both in accomplishment and physically as well. He appears to be ready for NHL games next year for sure, even if not as a first line player. Stutzle, while having elite wheels and sense, was a bit too slight so he needed to add a significant amount of muscle so he misses the A tier for readiness. QB is in the C tier for readiness because he still has to play his entire 18yo season and accomplish a full season of domination at both juniors and at the junior tournaments.

Given both are A- to me in ceiling, why not pick the guy who is B+ ready over the guy who is C+ ready and has a greater chance to bust?

Lafreniere would be A- and A
He's a franchise player who proved everything he could prove.

Crosby would have been A+ and A, and so would McDavid...ceiling of possible top 10 greatest of all time and fully ready to start and be a star immediately in the NHL.
A+ and A+ would be someone like Lemieux, the greatest 1OA of all time.

So I acknowledge both Stutzle and QB are A- prospects, ceiling-wise. I feel Stutzle is further along so he has the edge and I think others who may feel the same are ranking QB as 3rd overall now.

Here's someone who feels similarly: Connor McMullet - QB appears to be less consistent due to youth but the difference is tiny
2. Tim Stutzle - The gap between the players in this tier are razor-thin. That said, Stutzle's skating and vision along with the fact that he's proven himself against men is why he leads this tier. I think he's got a very got shot at being a Matthew Barzal type player. Yes, I think he'll be a center in the NHL.

3. Quinton Byfield - Byfield had an impressive season, but he doesn't have the consistent shift-to-shift impact that some of the others do. Maybe I've just caught his bad games, but he can float and plays to passively. He is young, however, and has lots of untapped potential as he still hasn't figured out how to use his size. He could definitely prove me wrong with this ranking; he certainly has the tools to do so.

Looking at it this way, I completely understand why you prefer Stutzle. I disagree, but it makes sense. I think the big reason being that you feel the ceilings are equal. I'm pretty sure at this point, I can't change your mind that Byfield has a higher ceiling. But that's where the disagreement lies. To me, the gap in potential (ceiling) Byfield has over Stutzle is larger than the current gap in talent Stutzle has over Byfield.

I will point this out though. If someone wants to argue achievements which have actually been reached, and completely ignore projections, here are Byfield's achievements versus Stutzle's:

Byfield:

• 2015-2016
  • OMHA Minor Bantam AAA Champions
• 2016-2017
  • OMHA Bantam AAA Champions
• 2017-2018
  • ETAHL U16 Most Assists (44)
  • ETAHL U16 Most Goals (48)
  • ETAHL U16 Most Points (92)
  • OGC-16 Bronze Medal
  • OMHA ETA Player of the Year
  • OMHA Minor Midget AAA Champions
• 2018-2019
  • CHL Rookie of the Year
  • OHL First All-Rookie Team
  • OHL Rookie of the Year (Emms Family Award)
• 2019-2020
  • CHL Top Prospects Game
  • Hlinka Gretzky Cup Silver Medal
  • OHL Third All-Star Team
  • U20 WJC Gold Medal

Stutzle:

• 2017-2018
  • DNL Champion
  • U18 WJC (D1A) Silver Medal
• 2018-2019
  • DNL Champion
  • U18 WJC (D1A) Best Forward
  • U18 WJC (D1A) Gold Medal
  • U18 WJC (D1A) Most Assists (7)
• 2019-2020
  • DEL Rookie of the Year

Again, please don't take this as a "Stutzle sucks" argument. I'm just saying that when it comes to achievements and being on good teams, they are comparable. The biggest difference is Stutzle played better on the big stage and has played against men. However, the arguments to counter that are: Byfield was on a deeper team and put in a lesser role, and the league Stutzle played in against men is less proven to return a high volume of quality NHL players. While I'm advocating for Byfield, I would 100% cheer for Stutzle if the Kings choose to take him.

 

[BigKing]

Is it outlandish to think Byfield could put up 40 points in the DEL?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Dobber has a year's worth of scouting reports and viewings of Byfield that you can read, starting from a report year ago when he was named OHL Rookie of the Year.
Quinton Byfield

I trust their analysis and breakdown of his performance over someone who just viewed a few clips on YouTube. I was all for Stutzle as well, still think highly of him, but to discredit Byfield is foolish.

 

[Fishhead]

The DEL thing does make it difficult for me, and it's probably a source of bias. Every single game I've watched from that league is plagued with terrible defense. It's not quite all-star game style defense, but it's not far off. Granted, I've probably watched 10-12 games total, but I don't think I've ever seen anyone punished for going to the front of the net or coming across the middle.

The skill level in that league overall seemed on par with the AHL, I would say very similar actually, and definitely below the other European leagues. Sloppy at times and not very cohesive. Not to discount what Stutzle did, but it's hard to get a read on his numbers. Think about a guy like Bjornfot, who's only 9 months older than Stutzle. He put up 19 points in 44 games from defense in a much tighter league on a smaller ice surface. What would Stutzle's numbers be if he somehow played 41 games in the AHL last year? Maybe a few less points because of the better defense, probably in the high 20's. Is it remotely accurate to predict numbers like that? Probably not, but it's a ballpark. If you think Bjornfot being older than Stutzle has an effect, remember that Byfield is 7 months younger than Stutzle. Yet something else in the equation.

Again, not to take anything away from Stutzle at all, it's just incredibly difficult to get a comparison. It almost reminds me of Kopitar in a way, it was difficult to get a read on him as well. Slovenian, really? They don't produce NHL'ers, right? It's why he fell to 11. Teams are obviously not sleeping on Stutzle like Kopitar, but not a lot of good players have taken the route he has. Sure he's playing against men, but men who reach out with their stick instead of knocking you on your ass. His talent is undeniable, just gotta trust those European scouts I guess.

Looking back in a few years, all of the analysis will probably look silly because they both will likely be emerging stars. I'm comforted by the fact that the last time we picked #2 we got who I think ended up the best player of that draft.

 

[The Lukeman]

Is it outlandish to think Byfield could put up 40 points in the DEL?

No its not. Interestingly enough, I think Byfield and Stutzle would have similar performances whether its the OHL or DEL. The way they get that production would be fairly different, but they would have similar point totals.

In the Stutzle thread in the prospects forum, people are calling me crazy for saying Stutzle would be a 15-20 goal scorer and 70 assist player in 50 games. The kid shot 5% in 41 DEL games with 132 shots. Poor shot selection and shot utilization with an okay shot won't get it done in the mens league. Would work a little better in a junior league (he had 23 goals in DEL's junior league year prior), but I still think he would be a pass first player. His playmaking speaks for itself in regards to 70 assists.

For Byfield, I could easily see a 15-20 goal, 20-25 assist player in the DEL. That would land him between 35-45 points in 40 DEL games. He was shooting 27% in the OHL. My concern is that about 60% of his scoring was in transition which would not work as well in the DEL, but his shot is elite. Given the same ice time and power play as Stutzle, he would be a trigger man on the power play and make up those goals. Also has decent playmaking, easily can rack up 20 assists. Reminder that Byfield was #1 in the OHL last season in scoring goals and primary assists per 60 minutes of play. You don't do that playing as a 17 yo and not have talent.

 

[Peter James Bond III]

Someone asked if anyone said Stutzle could someday challenge Lafreniere as top pick from the class. Can't find that question, but there is this answer from some scout. (source; from a Pronman article)

""And, as one NHL scout told TSN’s Bob McKenzie: “If there’s someone in this draft who could go by Lafreniere in the years to come, it’s (Stutzle).” That future outlook could certainly help soften the blow of missing out on the first-overall pick"

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

For as shallow as they were I liked the old HF prospect rankings for this reason. I'd probably Put Laf at 9.0B, Byfield at 9.0D, and Stutzle at 8.5B.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The DEL thing does make it difficult for me, and it's probably a source of bias. Every single game I've watched from that league is plagued with terrible defense. It's not quite all-star game style defense, but it's not far off. Granted, I've probably watched 10-12 games total, but I don't think I've ever seen anyone punished for going to the front of the net or coming across the middle.

The skill level in that league overall seemed on par with the AHL, I would say very similar actually, and definitely below the other European leagues. Sloppy at times and not very cohesive. Not to discount what Stutzle did, but it's hard to get a read on his numbers. Think about a guy like Bjornfot, who's only 9 months older than Stutzle. He put up 19 points in 44 games from defense in a much tighter league on a smaller ice surface. What would Stutzle's numbers be if he somehow played 41 games in the AHL last year? Maybe a few less points because of the better defense, probably in the high 20's. Is it remotely accurate to predict numbers like that? Probably not, but it's a ballpark. If you think Bjornfot being older than Stutzle has an effect, remember that Byfield is 7 months younger than Stutzle. Yet something else in the equation.

Again, not to take anything away from Stutzle at all, it's just incredibly difficult to get a comparison. It almost reminds me of Kopitar in a way, it was difficult to get a read on him as well. Slovenian, really? They don't produce NHL'ers, right? It's why he fell to 11. Teams are obviously not sleeping on Stutzle like Kopitar, but not a lot of good players have taken the route he has. Sure he's playing against men, but men who reach out with their stick instead of knocking you on your ass. His talent is undeniable, just gotta trust those European scouts I guess.

Looking back in a few years, all of the analysis will probably look silly because they both will likely be emerging stars. I'm comforted by the fact that the last time we picked #2 we got who I think ended up the best player of that draft.

That's kind of my feeling about it. People ask me if I really feel the DEL's defense is that bad and my answer is unequivocally YES. It's impressive that Stutzle is doing it vs. men nonetheless and he'd still be a consensus top prospect in a different league but when you can walk through the middle and not even get whacked by a stick it's a soft defensive league. The OHL's D sucks too but it's still at least physically punishing and they won't just GIVE You the ice the same way the DEL will PLUS the big ice is a factor.