Bandit
Registered User
Dancing Boy, is that you?I just bought a Byfield jersey - hope LA picks him or I wasted a lot of $$$!
Dancing Boy, is that you?I just bought a Byfield jersey - hope LA picks him or I wasted a lot of $$$!
.I get confused about the "compete" concerns about Byfield. As a 17 year old on a talent challenged team he ended up with one of the best ppg of all time. I saw a stat (can't find it, damn) comparing his team's huge + goal differential when he was on the ice vs huge - differential when he wasn't. He played 20+ min per game in all situations, including PK.
We have all seen his great shot, creative passes, incredible agility, and the guy plays defense too. But the guy has "compete" issues!?! What more could this underaged kid do to "compete"? This kid is and will be an unreal talent.
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plus the kid hired Gary Roberts to train him and his goal is to play in the NHL this upcoming season. Said he has been watching a lot of his own game tapes to look for areas to improve as well as watching a ton of Malkin game footage to see what makes him effective. Sounds like the kid has some compete in him to me.
on a side note we as fans seem to have a hard time picking Byfield vs Stutzle. They may not be the only choice. Blake said they had to take a hard look at 4 players. I would not be surprised if Mason Raymond was the fourth. The more scouting reports I read the more I learn that he is right there is some scouts eyes.
I have my list back home, but I do know the dodge truck agencies have different opinions on Stutzle. The spread on Stutzle is he is ranked as high as 2 by quite a few but as low as 8th overall by a few.
Byfield also as high as 2 by the same amount but only as low as 4
Raymond however has been as high as 3 by a few (Byfield the 2 in those) and as low as 7.
even the experts can’t agree. Oh well, 4 plus months and maybe some European hockey in between now and the draft just to throw more of a wrench in everything.
What a year. Hopefully 2020 goes full 2020 on draft day and the team with the 1st overall pick decides they need a center. After the way this year has gone I wouldn’t bat an eyelash.
I get confused about the "compete" concerns about Byfield. As a 17 year old on a talent challenged team he ended up with one of the best ppg of all time. I saw a stat (can't find it, damn) comparing his team's huge + goal differential when he was on the ice vs huge - differential when he wasn't. He played 20+ min per game in all situations, including PK.
We have all seen his great shot, creative passes, incredible agility, and the guy plays defense too. But the guy has "compete" issues!?! What more could this underaged kid do to "compete"? This kid is and will be an unreal talent.
I’m not so sure. I think he’d need a little time in the AHL first, to adjust to the smaller ice and tighter defences. He’d get a cup of coffee but I think he’d need time to adjust before making the jump full time. Btw, it’s a non issue for me as being NHL ready isn’t a factor for whom I would draft, it’s about the longer game.At the moment though Stutzle seems like he can make the jump into the NHL next season
I don’t understand how you can form an argument based on numbers you’ve literally picked from thin air. Both players have demonstrated the ability to work through challenges (Byfield, poor team - Stützle, playing against men). With their talent level an inability to cope when it gets tough is usually the reason players bust. Neither shows a hint of that and character is now something teams really zero in on. It’s in no way a coin flip that either busts.I think the extra year for QB is "nearly" a coin flip. Don't get me wrong, even Stutzle could still bust but if he could bust, say, 20% chance, then QB is one year behind AND the same 20% chance...so in my bogus math, let's say that's 40%...which is close to a coin flip to me...and we have to wait a year to find out.
If he grows two more inches witch is very possible based on his past 4 years of growth spurts he would be the only 6'6" forward in NHL history to be a first line center with any actual value. He could stop growing or maybe only grow 1" over the next 4 years and that would cause a ton of concern for his ability to be a highly effective foward.
Also, a lot of people here both on this and the main board keep saying that "we're rebuilding". I don't think the front office or ownership agree with that.
“We get to the make the second selection in a very good NHL draft, at a time when we’re trying to rebuild into a championship team,” Yanetti noted. . . . “Things worked out pretty damned good. It’s a chance to change the franchise, and to speed up the rebuild. It’s a chance to complete the process we’ve been working on over the past few years.”
Fun fact: 42 percent of all 5-on-5 goals occur within five seconds of the attacking team entering the offensive zone. That was a key takeaway when Hockey-Graphs contributor Adam Stringham analyzed every goal from the 2013-14 season. What does that tell us? It’s more evidence that transitional play — how swiftly teams switch from defense to offense and vice versa — is crucial in a contemporary NHL that’s trending toward speed and skill.
I don’t understand how you can form an argument based on numbers you’ve literally picked from thin air. Both players have demonstrated the ability to work through challenges (Byfield, poor team - Stützle, playing against men). With their talent level an inability to cope when it gets tough is usually the reason players bust. Neither shows a hint of that and character is now something teams really zero in on. It’s in no way a coin flip that either busts.
However, you also consider Byfields age and height as a risk when in fact it’s a reason to be even more excited about him. Presenting him growing another 2 inches as a risk is a fairly contrived issue and again based on no facts other than his height. Being too tall and gangly is a problem from 20 years ago. Sports science has long been able to help properly manage and handle growth spurts and the like, so it really isn’t a problem. His body type won’t change if he grows taller as his frame will also grow, he will just get bigger and stronger. Knowing how to manage a players body type and physical condition is basic stuff these days. I Imagine a guy of his size, who even if he doesn’t hit like Brownie, could overpower anyone in the league, is immovable from in front of the net and then I think about how good his hands are. He already has great puck protection ability and if bigger it only gets better. It’s the same with his shot, it’s already technically good, so a strength increase will just make it better.
There are plenty of ‘big’ skilled guys in the games history, we can start with Mario Lemieux at 6’ 4” and as has already been mentioned Arnott was 6’5. I don’t ever recall an expert discussion about how either player would benefit from being a touch smaller. If he ended up being the biggest ever 1 C how is that an issue? Someone has to hold that crown and it really isn’t a negative as he isn’t an Ectomorph body type, he’s a Mesomorph by the looks of things and that’s fine.
Of course he may bust, that risk applies to every single player drafted, even Lafreniere. However, Byfield is no greater risk than anyone else for that. Both Stützle and Byfield will be Elite players IMO, top 6 players at worst if their respective developments get screwed up. The reason I’d choose Byfield is that there is the potential that if he hits his absolute ceiling he becomes a Franchise player, even if it’s only a 10% chance it’s a significant difference maker. We have a record of being patient with player development and I’m sure we will get something close to the ceiling with whomever we pick. I don’t think either player busts in LA.
I do agree though that’s there a case for letting Byfield play junior again next year to allow him to grow and develop. However, not on the team he was at last year. He needs to be traded so he can play on a contending team, with decent players so he can take his game to the next level. If his rights are not moved he may be better served with sheltered minutes playing 60+ games in LA. It’s definitely going to be the most important decision that gets made for him, in terms of hitting whatever his ceiling proves to be. There is so much time between now and when they have to decide that the answer, whatever it is, could easily change.
Last year Kalyev felt to the 2nd round (thankfully) because some scouts thought that he was cherrypicking. After the draft I read somewhere that in some games he was playing 30+ minutes. Maybe, that’s the case with Byfield.I get confused about the "compete" concerns about Byfield. As a 17 year old on a talent challenged team he ended up with one of the best ppg of all time. I saw a stat (can't find it, damn) comparing his team's huge + goal differential when he was on the ice vs huge - differential when he wasn't. He played 20+ min per game in all situations, including PK.
We have all seen his great shot, creative passes, incredible agility, and the guy plays defense too. But the guy has "compete" issues!?! What more could this underaged kid do to "compete"? This kid is and will be an unreal talent.
I read all this and can summarize your arguments here: “I’m willing to look at all the upside and ignore all of the risk, no matter how apparent it is.”
I’ll give you some real numbers...he only scored 82 points in 45g last season. Other comparable CHL players in the same draft: Rossi 120 points in 56g, Lafreniere 112 points in 52g, Perfetti 111 points in 61g. Point is at the top of the draft, the guys are all scoring 110+ points in their draft season...QB not only was hurt, which is often a big ding in your juniors draft season traditionally, he was more on a 90 point pace...that doesn’t translate into 75 points in the NHL. And he had no impressive showings at any of the participated tournaments this year either, I believe.
All QB has on an elite level is potential. I know this is HF but potential may be nice to dream about, it’s actually a big negative in the real world when comparing to surer things. It’s probably why multiple NHL scouts have him 6th overall and not top 3.
For me, the choice is not that hard. Image below is best PPG in the OHL since 2010. Byfield ranks 6th. Of the 17 players on this list that have made it to the NHL, 8 are considered top players in the NHL and only 3 failed to really make the NHL. And he is on the higher end of this list.
On top of that, Byfield only played 5 games in the last 1/3rd of his season (5 games since feb 7), and is the youngest player on this list. So his 1.82 PPG represents former part of his development, rather than the latter. He is doing this in a league with deep history of developing players. All of this screams top tier talent.
I don't know how but Byfield' shot is somehow underrated. He had a 27% shooting percentage. He doesn't have a good shot, he has a GREAT shot. Only can think of Holtz and Quinn who clearly have a better shot.
Every single player in the top 10, except Quinton Byfield, had at least 1 other 1st or 2nd round talent on their team. Byfield played with 1 drafted player, 6th round pick Blake Murray (they played on 2 separate lines).
All the data analytics look great for Byfield. In Scouching's analytics, Byfield has the highest NHLes score (yes higher than Lafreniere), which adjusts a player's league, age, and raw production to make a comparable analysis. When Byfield on the ice, his team is scoring 35% more goals and allowing 27% less goals than when he is not on the ice. Stats from Pick224 and HockeyPC on twitter showed that Byfield was 1st in the OHL in G per 60 minutes played and primary assists per 60 minutes played.
People who point out Byfield's production mainly comes from transition plays forget that the OHL is a transition league and a majority of goals are scored on either the rush or PP. Odds are, you heard someone hear from Draft Dynasty about his concerns, and made now its a major argument point. Yet, that argument was never brought up for Connor McDavid, Mitch Marner, Matthew Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Yakupov, Svechnikov, etc despite them doing the same thing. Don't believe me. Here is a bunch of player highlights from their ohl seasons:
McDavid
Marner
Strome
Tkachuk
Svechnikov
Must I go on?
The way I see it, this debate is like the Svechnikov/Zadina debate. It was so obvious that Svechnikov was the #2 pick, yet there was so much debate about who should go at #2. I like Stutzle, he has potential to be a PP quarterback and be an elite winger, but Byfield has the potential to be a #1 franchise center. Stutzle does not attack the center of the ice enough to play center in the NHL. The majority of his production comes from playing perimeter on the power play. He takes advantage of the extra ice in the international rinks, where he can skate his way into a gorgeous passing play. He won't have the space like he does in the DEL.
Also these are opinions, I'm not trying to say you're wrong. I'm just trying to say how I feel.
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...and all of those players mentioned above had significantly more talented teammates than Byfield...we know how much that matters in hockeyAnd FYI, Rossi is 11 months older than QB. Laf is 10 months older. Perfetti is 8 months older. That matters as save for Laf who plays in a different league, none of those guys were producing what Byfield was doing at the same age.
Management is going to screw this up royally if they don't take the proper time and rush to just get back into the playoffs. Sadly, I don't think we will ever see Kopitar hoist the Stanley Cup as captain of the Kings.I listed my facts. Everything else is just semantics.
1) Look at the roster, it has way too many key vets and stars to be a complete rebuild, salary-wise
2) Maybe the FO originally intended for a 5 year rebuild but we’re coming out of it early due to hitting on Vilardi, plus last year’s draft
3) The fact the two biggest stars stayed shows the FO showed them the plan and the turnaround time is fast enough for them
4) A re-tool is a partial rebuild; every retool is a sort of rebuild but not every rebuild is a retool rebuild; main difference is the star players you keep on the roster
5) Our re-tool was a bit deeper than say, a Chicago annual retool...that’s because our cupboard was bare due to mediocre drafting for a few years and DL unloading assets for certain key rental vets
The process of a complete rebuild or a retool is still “rebuilding” by unloading older vets and getting younger, cheaper but quality players to replace them. The difference is, how deep do you go and this how long is the process. In this case, it hasn’t been that long...this has only been our second draft with a top lottery pick.
My point is, management knows and so do the vet players that they don’t have five or six years. This becomes important as BPA in this draft, NHL-readiness becomes a factor in evaluating the prospect.
Stützle I believe can contribute now, as a winger, due to his skating and his off-season strength conditioning, along with his game. Byfield looks like he’s another year in junior, then AHL, and each year is a we’ll see year. (Being tall and big is no longer as important as it was before in the NHL, so it doesn’t counteract NHL-readiness. ) QB is quite young and more raw than almost all of the other prospects at the top of this draft. He has quite a bit to prove and needs a couple extra years to do it. The question is can the team wait? I don’t think so in the Kings’ case. Kopitar may be very close to retired before QB gets to skate more than 40 games in the same season on the Kings.
Re-posting this from earlier in the thread re: QB's production. And FYI, Rossi is 11 months older than QB. Laf is 10 months older. Perfetti is 8 months older. That matters as save for Laf who plays in a different league, none of those guys were producing what Byfield was doing at the same age.
Management is going to screw this up royally if they don't take the proper time and rush to just get back into the playoffs. Sadly, I don't think we will ever see Kopitar hoist the Stanley Cup as captain of the Kings.
The Kings need to take the player they believe will be the best player when he reaches his peak, and not worry about when they are NHL-ready. If they take Byfield, I fully expect him to be back in junior hockey next season.
If Byfield was born 30 days later, he would have been in next year's draft. Eleven months matters quite a bit in the development of a 17-19 year old hockey player, or any athlete for that matter.Re-posting this from earlier in the thread re: QB's production. And FYI, Rossi is 11 months older than QB. Laf is 10 months older. Perfetti is 8 months older. That matters as save for Laf who plays in a different league, none of those guys were producing what Byfield was doing at the same age.
What makes you think Byfield plays a "heavy" game? I think Stutzle will be a fine player in the NHL. I don't see to same potential in him to take over a game in the way Byfield will if he reaches his full potential.On your first point, you may be right but I don't think of Stutzle as a screw up (not like the signing of Kovalchuk). I know I'm in the minority here but with all of the time off and the newly re-motivated guys like Doughty with the injection of young blood, I think the Kings are a playoff team right now with the addition of a vet LHD.
Second point, agree, but Stutzle might be the one with the higher ceiling even above Lafreniere due to his hockey sense and skating.
Third point, fully agree and hopefully if he is a King, he scores like 140 points and we all laugh about the time we were debating his development.
Looking at how the team is being put together, I don't think we are building a 2012 team this time. We have tons of character but we're focusing more on skill and drive, and much less on a heavy game this time around.
What makes you think Byfield plays a "heavy" game? I think Stutzle will be a fine player in the NHL. I don't see to same potential in him to take over a game in the way Byfield will if he reaches his full potential.
To borrow a baseball analogy, for me Byfield is a 5-tool prospect.
Shift Work: Quinton Byfield
Shift Work: Tim Stützle
Worth looking at imo. Not in great depth or anything, just highlights some of the more subtle things done throughout the game that both excel at yet some feel are weaknesses of either player. Also worth noting closer to the beginning of the year, so before Stutzle really got comfortable in DEL too.
There are also full game shift by shift videos rather than synopses since we have plenty o time before then, lol