Speculation: Where do the Bruins Finish 2023-24?

Where do the Bruins finish 2023-24?

  • Top 3 Atlantic

    Votes: 63 28.0%
  • Wild Card

    Votes: 98 43.6%
  • Just miss the playoffs

    Votes: 57 25.3%
  • Cellar dwellers

    Votes: 7 3.1%

  • Total voters
    225

Aussie Bruin

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If that's what the numbers indicate then they aren't worth much.

Advanced stats have limitations in hockey, we know this. There are certain things that they cannot really account for, although as I said my analysis was pretty simplistic and if you really dug into the numbers you would probably be able to draw some more nuanced conclusions that draw closer to the on-ice reality. Results vary as to how reflective the stats are of actual performance - Carolina were probably the statistical darlings of last season and mostly backed that up in their points tally, Calgary also had some very high numbers but didn't. Vegas' advanced stats were nothing impressive in the playoffs but they won a Cup quite comfortably regardless.

Having said that, was my basic observation that wide of the mark? Undoubtedly the Bruins played well last season and they were incredibly consistent, but was their general play really that much better than that of the other top teams? Did it scream 'record breakers'? I'm not sure it did. The numbers say that outstanding goaltending and clutch/opportunistic finishing were important parts of Boston's success, and I don't think that's an outlandish statement. Where your mileage may vary is in assessing just how influential those factors were over and above the team's more general ability to generate scoring chances, play sound defense etc.
 

Dennis Bonvie

Registered User
Dec 29, 2007
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Connecticut
Advanced stats have limitations in hockey, we know this. There are certain things that they cannot really account for, although as I said my analysis was pretty simplistic and if you really dug into the numbers you would probably be able to draw some more nuanced conclusions that draw closer to the on-ice reality. Results vary as to how reflective the stats are of actual performance - Carolina were probably the statistical darlings of last season and mostly backed that up in their points tally, Calgary also had some very high numbers but didn't. Vegas' advanced stats were nothing impressive in the playoffs but they won a Cup quite comfortably regardless.

Having said that, was my basic observation that wide of the mark? Undoubtedly the Bruins played well last season and they were incredibly consistent, but was their general play really that much better than that of the other top teams? Did it scream 'record breakers'? I'm not sure it did. The numbers say that outstanding goaltending and clutch/opportunistic finishing were important parts of Boston's success, and I don't think that's an outlandish statement. Where your mileage may vary is in assessing just how influential those factors were over and above the team's more general ability to generate scoring chances, play sound defense etc.

The Bruins allowed 177 goals last season. No other team allowed under 200.

The Bruins scored 305 goals. Only Edmonton scored more with McDavid and Draisautl.

A 128 goal differential. No one else within 40 goals of that.

Would be good to know how long they played with the lead and how long they played while behind. Having the lead the vast majority of the time means they are not pressing as often as their opponents. Could have a large effect on possession time.
 
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Aussie Bruin

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The Bruins allowed 177 goals last season. No other team allowed under 200.

The Bruins scored 305 goals. Only Edmonton scored more with McDavid and Draisautl.

A 128 goal differential. No one else within 40 goals of that.

Would be good to know how long they played with the and how long they played while behind. Having the lead the vast majority of the time means they are not pressing as often as their opponents. Could have a large effect on possession time.

It's a fair question. At 5v5, the Bruins spent 1797 mins ahead, 1325 mins tied, and 727 mins behind. Obviously they spent more time with a lead than any other team in the league. But that doesn't actually really change the main advanced stats very much, except in one regard. In terms of league rankings, situationally they were as follows:

Leading: 10th CF%, 11th SF%, 7th SCF%, 10th HDCF%, 10th xGF%.

Tied: 11th CF%, 5th SF%, 10th SCF%, 12th HDCF%, 7th xGF%.

Behind: 12th CF%, 5th SF%, 3rd SCF%, 4th HDCF%, 3rd xGF%.

Their numbers when games were tied are still not particularly special - good, top-10 in the league for sure, but nothing more than that. Mostly look much the same as their overall figures I posted previously. The interesting thing is when they were leading it didn't change too much. Yeah their corsi and shot counts slipped a bit as you would expect, but they were still out-chancing their opposition and putting themselves in good positions to score at about the same rate as when games were tied. Which rather suggests that being in front didn't change too much about how they went about things.

Where the Bs really excelled was when they were trailing. Really good numbers there around their ability to generate quality scoring chances and volume of shots. Still not league-leading, but certainly right at the pointy end.

I think then that your point is generally valid - no doubt being in front a lot had an impact on the Bruins' advanced stats and their numbers when trailing probably give some decent indication of the high level and elevated offensive potency they could reach quite consistently when they needed to. But even these figures are still not especially outstanding, and when considering both these and the tied-game stats, the indication is still that Boston's general play when all-square or chasing the game was very good rather than absolutely elite.

I'll throw in one more stat I think is super-impressive and relevant: the Bruins' SV% when trailing in games was .959. That's ridiculous. When the going was tough Swayman and especially Ullmark kept the team in the hunt and within striking distance of opponents time and time again and gave them opportunities to get back into and win or tie games well beyond what you could reasonably ask for. The goalie factor was huge for us.

I don't want to oversell that or any of this analytics stuff. Clearly last season's Bruins did an exceptional job. I'm just saying that when you look a little deeper, the team's play was not quite as dominant as might appear at first glance, or perhaps more accurately, it was dominant at least partly due to some significant factors that cannot easily be replicated, even if the same personnel are in place. It's not to be negative, just cautious.
 
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Fenway

HF Bookie and Bruins Historian
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The only certainty is the Bruins will not collect 135 points next season.....

The Atlantic most likely will see a change in the pecking order in 23-24 - Buffalo missed the playoffs last year by one point, and Detroit and Ottawa won't be an easy 2 points - Poutineville looks to finish last.

I still think the B's will be a Top 3 and avoid the wild card quagmire.
 

rfournier103

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The only certainty is the Bruins will not collect 135 points next season.....

The Atlantic most likely will see a change in the pecking order in 23-24 - Buffalo missed the playoffs last year by one point, and Detroit and Ottawa won't be an easy 2 points - Poutineville looks to finish last.

I still think the B's will be a Top 3 and avoid the wild card quagmire.
I like your optimism, here. I’d be happy with a top 3 finish.

I’d be happy with the Habs finishing last as well.

Good post as always.
 

SPLBRUIN

Registered User
Mar 21, 2010
12,332
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They are a playoff team, not sure where they end up. Having the best goaltending duo and a top 5 D gets them there. They still have 3 legit top 6 wingers and Zacha and Coyle are 2nd and 3rd line centers who will be asked to play up in the lineup, the huge gigantic hole is that there is no legit #1 guy. I think this team will once again relish the underdog role and Marchand will make a great captain. Don't underestimate the value of having Looch back, he brings leadership and badly needed toughness to this team, real toughness.
 
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mjd1001

Registered User
May 24, 2022
435
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As others have said, this will be one of the most interesting and mysterious seasons by any team in a long time.

If they finish with 100+ points and contend for the division title, it would not be out of line at the end of the season to say "Of course they were going to be that good, they still have a good core, good coaching and they are the Bruins"

On the other hand they could miss the playoffs and it would be just as easy to say "they just lost too much and the team had to adjust to too many changes, of course they weren't going to make it".

Either outcome would not be a surprise at all.

I see it as many other do: Toronto and Florida fight for the Division lead. Buffalo, Ottawa, Tampa, and Detroit fight for the middle ground (with Buf or Ott possibly vaulting into a fight for the division lead with Tor and Fla), Montreal likely at the rear......and Boston slotted ANYWERE in there.
 
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goldnblack

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Jun 24, 2020
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Safe to say if they finish with more than 100 pts, Monty could Jack Adams back to back?
 

PlayMakers

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Aug 9, 2004
25,855
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Medfield, MA
It's a fair question. At 5v5, the Bruins spent 1797 mins ahead, 1325 mins tied, and 727 mins behind. Obviously they spent more time with a lead than any other team in the league. But that doesn't actually really change the main advanced stats very much, except in one regard. In terms of league rankings, situationally they were as follows:

Leading: 10th CF%, 11th SF%, 7th SCF%, 10th HDCF%, 10th xGF%.

Tied: 11th CF%, 5th SF%, 10th SCF%, 12th HDCF%, 7th xGF%.

Behind: 12th CF%, 5th SF%, 3rd SCF%, 4th HDCF%, 3rd xGF%.

Their numbers when games were tied are still not particularly special - good, top-10 in the league for sure, but nothing more than that. Mostly look much the same as their overall figures I posted previously. The interesting thing is when they were leading it didn't change too much. Yeah their corsi and shot counts slipped a bit as you would expect, but they were still out-chancing their opposition and putting themselves in good positions to score at about the same rate as when games were tied. Which rather suggests that being in front didn't change too much about how they went about things.

Where the Bs really excelled was when they were trailing. Really good numbers there around their ability to generate quality scoring chances and volume of shots. Still not league-leading, but certainly right at the pointy end.

I think then that your point is generally valid - no doubt being in front a lot had an impact on the Bruins' advanced stats and their numbers when trailing probably give some decent indication of the high level and elevated offensive potency they could reach quite consistently when they needed to. But even these figures are still not especially outstanding, and when considering both these and the tied-game stats, the indication is still that Boston's general play when all-square or chasing the game was very good rather than absolutely elite.

I'll throw in one more stat I think is super-impressive and relevant: the Bruins' SV% when trailing in games was .959. That's ridiculous. When the going was tough Swayman and especially Ullmark kept the team in the hunt and within striking distance of opponents time and time again and gave them opportunities to get back into and win or tie games well beyond what you could reasonably ask for. The goalie factor was huge for us.

I don't want to oversell that or any of this analytics stuff. Clearly last season's Bruins did an exceptional job. I'm just saying that when you look a little deeper, the team's play was not quite as dominant as might appear at first glance, or perhaps more accurately, it was dominant at least partly due to some significant factors that cannot easily be replicated, even if the same personnel are in place. It's not to be negative, just cautious.
From a completely anecdotal point of view, I remember more than a few games where they got outplayed and won anyway. Superlative goaltending covers a lot of flaws.

There were a lot of games where it felt like we allowed ~40 shots. STL, OTT, CGY, NJD... I remember the EDM game in EDM where it felt like we were dominated and Ullmark stole the show. Remember the Calgary game? I think he made 60 saves in that one. Swayman too, had some big games against FLA, CAR, SEA...

Last year really was a perfect storm kind of season, if the offense lagged they got amazing goaltending, and when the goaltending lagged they got offense from everyone.
 

Fenway

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One thing I like about the schedule - The B's do California in week 2 and that is always a good bonding trip.



1692067903104.png
 
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SweSensFan

Registered User
Feb 15, 2019
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As others have said, this will be one of the most interesting and mysterious seasons by any team in a long time.

If they finish with 100+ points and contend for the division title, it would not be out of line at the end of the season to say "Of course they were going to be that good, they still have a good core, good coaching and they are the Bruins"

On the other hand they could miss the playoffs and it would be just as easy to say "they just lost too much and the team had to adjust to too many changes, of course they weren't going to make it".

Either outcome would not be a surprise at all.

I see it as many other do: Toronto and Florida fight for the Division lead. Buffalo, Ottawa, Tampa, and Detroit fight for the middle ground (with Buf or Ott possibly vaulting into a fight for the division lead with Tor and Fla), Montreal likely at the rear......and Boston slotted ANYWERE in there.
Agreed until you mentioned Florida. They just made the playoffs this season, they lost a couple of pieces and they have key players unlikely to play at the start of the season due to injury. What makes you think they will fight for the top of the division?
 

SyZyGY

Registered User
Jun 13, 2021
220
366
They will miss the playoffs, not by much but they will miss it. Teams in their division got better while the Bruins got way worst.
 

MarchysNoseKnows

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Feb 14, 2018
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They will miss the playoffs, not by much but they will miss it. Teams in their division got better while the Bruins got way worst.
Walk me through how Tampa, Toronto, and Florida got better, unless you think trading out Staal and Gudas for OEL and Mike Reilly made Florida better.

Buffalo and Ottawa are on the rise for sure. Detroit is trying to corner the market on slightly above average 26-30 year olds so maybe I guess?
 

goldnblack

Registered User
Jun 24, 2020
3,395
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I think I've come around to the idea that there's potentially a 30 pt gap between their best and worst possible outcomes this year. Kind of wild. 75 to 105 all in play. Injury variance probably being the deciding factor.
 

SyZyGY

Registered User
Jun 13, 2021
220
366
Walk me through how Tampa, Toronto, and Florida got better, unless you think trading out Staal and Gudas for OEL and Mike Reilly made Florida better.

Buffalo and Ottawa are on the rise for sure. Detroit is trying to corner the market on slightly above average 26-30 year olds so maybe I guess?
I didn't say every teams got better. Florida are about the same as last season and they beat us. Toronto are better than last season, Tampa are about the same but we lost way more key players than they did. Let's also not forget that last season everyone were dialed in to try and get 1 more cup for Bergy.
 

MarchysNoseKnows

Big Hat No Cattle
Feb 14, 2018
9,838
19,794
I didn't say every teams got better. Florida are about the same as last season and they beat us. Toronto are better than last season, Tampa are about the same but we lost way more key players than they did. Let's also not forget that last season everyone were dialed in to try and get 1 more cup for Bergy.
How is Toronto better? And how is Florida the same? Let’s not forget Florida barely made the playoffs and Ekblad and Montour are hurt for a while.
 

yazmybaby

Registered User
Sep 13, 2015
2,684
2,292
Brampton ON, Canada
Walk me through how Tampa, Toronto, and Florida got better, unless you think trading out Staal and Gudas for OEL and Mike Reilly made Florida better.

Buffalo and Ottawa are on the rise for sure. Detroit is trying to corner the market on slightly above average 26-30 year olds so maybe I guess?
The Leafs really improved with the signings of Bertuzzi and Domi.
I hate the Leafs, but have to admit their top six forwards are way better vs us.
M.Knies who looked really good in the playoffs until he got hurt will be a regular as well.
The only player of significance they lost was Bunting.
Their top 4 forwards will all get 75 points plus this year.
We might have 2 forwards to get 75 pts or more, assuming Marchand stays healthy.
You can also make the argument that if Matt Murray ( who is terrible) is not playing this year, Holl and Samsonov will be an improvement.
 

SyZyGY

Registered User
Jun 13, 2021
220
366
How is Toronto better? And how is Florida the same? Let’s not forget Florida barely made the playoffs and Ekblad and Montour are hurt for a while.
Toronto stole our best playoff performer from last season, added Domi, Klingberg. They are better in my book. While I agree that Florida barely made the playoff, they did beat us and went to the Cup finals so idk how some1 can say we are better than them.
 

yazmybaby

Registered User
Sep 13, 2015
2,684
2,292
Brampton ON, Canada
Here is my prediction:
Leafs
TBay
Bruins
FLA
Sens
Buff
Red Wings
Habs

Devils
Canes
NYR
Pitts
NYI
Caps
Blue Jackets
Flyers


Bruins end up with 98 points and make the playoffs.

My darkhorse team this year is the Sens.
They really improved adding Tarasenko, Kubalik, get Josh Norris back this year, a full season with Chychurn and improvement in the second year for Jake Sanderson.
 

NDiesel

Registered User
Mar 22, 2008
10,061
11,220
NWO
Toronto stole our best playoff performer from last season, added Domi, Klingberg. They are better in my book. While I agree that Florida barely made the playoff, they did beat us and went to the Cup finals so idk how some1 can say we are better than them.
I like Bertuzzi be he was very poor defensively, which just adds to the question marks of their D/goalies come playoffs. Same can be said with Domi/Klingberg, both have holes defensively.

They keep trying to outscore the league but it hasn't worked yet, maybe this is the season.
 

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