Speculation: Where do the Bruins Finish 2023-24?

[RustyBruins72]

I finally voted. Top 3 in Atlantic. I think the goals will come.

 

[TCB]

With Karlsson going to Pittsburgh, its made the challenge for the Bruins making the playoffs that much harder. I see it as a 9 team fight but Buffalo and the Islanders could make it more interesting. I think the Bruins will make it, but it'll be a dog fight.

Tampa
Toronto
Florida
Ottawa
Boston
Carolina
Jersey
Rangers
Penguins

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Behind Toronto and Tampa. Maybe 3rd and maybe Florida pushes them to the WC

 

[Absurdity]

#3 spot or wild card for me.

Defense pre-trade deadline ranked one of the best in the league. Bruins have the best goalie tandem in the league.

Bruins will miss Bergeron's leadership, faceoff ability, PK ability, and overall on-ice awareness. I do think Bergeron's 5v5 numbers can be replicated by someone else on the team. PK may take a bit of a hit, but PP should still be successful.

I think we'll see the Bruins with much more pace this season. They got bigger at forward and if they play with the same pace they did with Krejci and Bergeron out against Florida, they will be able to use that to their advantage against teams.

It will come down to the coaching, effort, and the team buying in.

 

[Yeti34]

Tough to say Ottawa got better but had some major gaps. Pitt got better and the bruins clearly got worse but is that enough to leapfrog. Buffalo should be better as well.

I’d say Wildcard at this point, with the potential to miss the playoffs all together due to teams within the East improving and the Bs getting worse.

 

[ODAAT]

I think replacing Bergeron and Krejci will be tough for the Bruins like it was for the pats and Brady. They have zero plan at center

not sure anyone could put in place a succession plan for a sure first ballot HOF`er in Bergy and another with almost 800 pts in DK.

Do the Pens have succession plan for Crosby? Caps for Ovi? I picked the B`s as a wild card team, still a great deal of talent on the roster but it will be tough

 

[KrejciMVP]

not sure anyone could put in place a succession plan for a sure first ballot HOF`er in Bergy and another with almost 800 pts in DK.

Do the Pens have succession plan for Crosby? Caps for Ovi? I picked the B`s as a wild card team, still a great deal of talent on the roster but it will be tough

teams like Pitt and Caps will reset getting a lotto pick just like Chicago just did

 

[Fenian24]

Barring injury to a top 3 D or Pasta, Zacha, Marchand or DeBrusk they are a wild card. Any one of them is out for an extended period they miss the playoffs. I expect a 30 to 35 point drop from last year but a 100 to 105 should still get them in.

I think this team will do poor in the first half and Don Sweeney will try to correct it at the trade deadline only for the team to miss out in 10th place. Unless they make another big move that results in more futures getting shipped out the door, the Bruins aren't gonna make it to the playoffs this year. And honestly? I'm okay with that. This team needs to bottom out so that Don Sweeney and Cam Neely get ejected from their spot in power. Take a little bit of pain now for a better future tomorrow.

I have been saying this with Bloom and the Sox and it doesn't seem to be working. Remember the Bruins success is based purely on profit and loss, if Sweeney keeps them profitable he could be here for a very long time, the results do not, and never have, mattered

 

[EverettMike]

I don't understand why the most likely option wasn't included.

On home ice after a game 7 loss.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I don't understand why the most likely option wasn't included.

On home ice after a game 7 loss.

I see you've been saving your best stuff for the Post of the Year contest.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

What did you honestly think last year at this time?

Have faith!

I’d have to look back and see if I can find anything on my pre-2023 season opinions haha. I’ll tell you I didn’t have them being the best team in the league

I think it all hinges on their centers and right now with Coyle in the Top 6, I’m just not super confident. If Zacha regresses at all, that’ll really hurt their chances. He’s the most interesting to watch.

I like their centers. I just don’t like how they’re going to be slotted.

However, I hope I’m very wrong. I probably will be which I would enjoy. And, if I’m somehow not wrong and they do struggle down the middle and miss the PO, you won’t get any chest thumping from me about it.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

I don't understand why the most likely option wasn't included.

On home ice after a game 7 loss.

You think they'll have home ice advantage?

Ever the optimist.

 

[EverettMike]

You think they'll have home ice advantage?

Ever the optimist.

No joke I almost didn't post that for that exact reason.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

In considering how the Bruins might fare this coming year, I thought it might be somewhat instructive to have a peek at the team’s main advanced stats for last regular season, and see if they tell us anything about where last year’s crew were at beyond the raw fact of their ridiculous win percentage. The core numbers state that, 5v5, Boston were 15th in the league for CF%, 7th for SF%, 9th for SCF%, 10th for HDCF%, 14th for xGF, had the 3rd-lowest xGA, were 8th for xGF%, 1st for SV%, 2nd for SH%, and 1st for PDO. Their PP ranked 12th and their PK 1st.

A very basic analysis from these numbers is that in their general play they were a very good but not outstanding team that was nonetheless able to elevate well above the rest of the pack and put together a record-setting season largely through a combination of exceptional goaltending, great finishing, a little puck luck, and that more intangible mental or ‘seize the moment’ factor in having the ability to consistently drag themselves to positive results even when their general play was not at its best. They were a middling team in terms of puck possession and a bit stronger defensively than they were in their ability to generate offense, and this also extended to their special teams play, where they were decent on the PP but boasted a league-best PK. Their ability to excel above what their stats might suggest was further reinforced by them having the 3rd-highest positive differential between their expected and actual goals scored, and the highest of all between expected and actual goals against.

A couple of things suggest themselves from this. Firstly, the numbers indicate that the general performance of the 22/23 roster did not set it apart over and above the other strong teams, although they were still comfortably within the top 5-10 in the league. And it’s highly unlikely that any team could maintain the win percentage or the significant exceeding of statistical/expected performance that the Bruins managed last season for a second year in a row, even if the roster hadn’t changed at all.

But of course it has. The biggest challenges as the roster stands now are probably around reduced forward depth, a weaker middle and a loss of forward defensive capability. On the positive side the goaltending and most of the defense are still intact, and to some extent at least they can handle the weakened areas in the knowledge that they can afford a reduction in their performance compared to last season and still be in playoff contention. However they don’t have as much room to regress as might initially appear. Factor out the exceptional save and shooting percentages and last season’s team was probably closer to a 110-point outfit than 135. So they can probably drop 10-15 points from that level and still qualify, but not 30. Obviously it’s not all that simple, especially when you consider that one of the key reasons for the 22/23 team being outliers – the goalies – are still there.

I think though that the general point stands – there’s good reason to think Boston can still be competitive this coming season, but they don’t have to slip too far to potentially be in trouble, especially when you factor in how strong the Atlantic should be. If they stay mostly healthy and Ullmark and Swayman stand and deliver again, they should be in the mix. But if either of those things don’t happen, it could get dicey. It’s certainly going to be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[shelbysdad]

First in the East....hey no one saw it coming last year

 

[Bruinswillwin77]

First in the East....hey no one saw it coming last year

The main board would be a fun read if the Bruins were somehow again ontop.

 

[IveGotToBeMe]

With Karlsson going to Pittsburgh, its made the challenge for the Bruins making the playoffs that much harder. I see it as a 9 team fight but Buffalo and the Islanders could make it more interesting. I think the Bruins will make it, but it'll be a dog fight.

Tampa
Toronto
Florida
Ottawa
Boston
Carolina
Jersey
Rangers
Penguins

I agree with your assessment, although I am hopeful that Karlsson gets roughed up in the Metropolitan division and is not as effective this coming season.

 

[RHR37]

I voted just miss.

NJD
CAR
NYR

TOR
TAMPA
OTT

WC:

Pitts
NYI

 

[The don godfather]

I voted just miss.

NJD
CAR
NYR

TOR
TAMPA
OTT

WC:

Pitts
NYI

No way Bruins make it. Book it!

 

[EvilDead]

I have been saying this with Bloom and the Sox and it doesn't seem to be working. Remember the Bruins success is based purely on profit and loss, if Sweeney keeps them profitable he could be here for a very long time, the results do not, and never have, mattered

Yes, profit has come first with the Bruins. Which is why if they miss the playoffs and that home playoff gate, Jacobs won't be happy with the GM.

 

[Blowfish]

Waiting for October to vote...way too early.

As of today, they will be battling Pittsburg, Buffalo, Ottawa. All better. Not going to be easy.

 

[Fenian24]

Waiting for October to vote...way too early.

As of today, they will be battling Pittsburg, Buffalo, Ottawa. All better. Not going to be easy.

I really like Ottawa and think they are knocking somebody out of the top 3 in the division. Right now I would say Tampa but it could easily be the Bruins if Sweeney's veteran patches don't work and Geekie can't contribute. I have said this before and will say it until this season ends, no team with Charlie Coyle as a number two center is making the playoffs.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

In considering how the Bruins might fare this coming year, I thought it might be somewhat instructive to have a peek at the team’s main advanced stats for last regular season, and see if they tell us anything about where last year’s crew were at beyond the raw fact of their ridiculous win percentage. A very basic analysis from these numbers is that in their general play they were a very good but not outstanding team that was nonetheless able to elevate well above the rest of the pack and put together a record-setting seasonA couple of things suggest themselves from this. Firstly, the numbers indicate that the general performance of the 22/23 roster did not set it apart over and above the other strong teams, although they were still comfortably within the top 5-10 in the league. And it’s highly unlikely that any team could maintain the win percentage or the significant exceeding of statistical/expected performance that the Bruins managed last season for a second year in a row, even if the roster hadn’t changed at all.

But of course it has. The biggest challenges as the roster stands now are probably around reduced forward depth, a weaker middle and a loss of forward defensive capability. On the positive side the goaltending and most of the defense are still intact, and to some extent at least they can handle the weakened areas in the knowledge that they can afford a reduction in their performance compared to last season and still be in playoff contention. However they don’t have as much room to regress as might initially appear. Factor out the exceptional save and shooting percentages and last season’s team was probably closer to a 110-point outfit than 135. So they can probably drop 10-15 points from that level and still qualify, but not 30. Obviously it’s not all that simple, especially when you consider that one of the key reasons for the 22/23 team being outliers – the goalies – are still there.

I think though that the general point stands – there’s good reason to think Boston can still be competitive this coming season, but they don’t have to slip too far to potentially be in trouble, especially when you factor in how strong the Atlantic should be. If they stay mostly healthy and Ullmark and Swayman stand and deliver again, they should be in the mix. But if either of those things don’t happen, it could get dicey. It’s certainly going to be interesting to see how it pans out.

If that's what the numbers indicate then they aren't worth much.

 

[mjd1001]

Waiting for October to vote...way too early.

As of today, they will be battling Pittsburg, Buffalo, Ottawa. All better. Not going to be easy.

Pittsburgh I'm not sold on, Even with karlssson. He is a year older and as good as he is on offense, he is a trainwreck in his own end. Pitt missed the playoffs last year. Crosby and Malkin didn't miss any games last year. Your top 8 forwards are all over 30 (Carter, Malkin, and Crosby being 38, 37, and 36 at the start of the season) and your top 2 D-men are 33 and 36. They are NOT getting better this year than last year.

Tampa I think is on the way down also. Like Pittsburgh they still CAN make the playoffs but I think going forward each of them is likely to be worse and worse as time goes by.

Toronto and Florida should be battling for the #1 and 2 spots in the division.

Buffalo and Ottawa. Probably the 2 best teams in the division for the next 5-6 years, but both probably a year away from being there. Both I think have a much higher ceiling than Detroit. I think Ottawa starts out better than Buffalo, but Buffalo could be a 90 point team missing the playoffs or a 100+ point team fighting for the division depending on their goaltending.

 

[b in vancouver]

They'll have home ice in the 1st round.
Losing Bergeron, Hall and probably Krejci is tough but this team still has a lot of talent and a great culture.
Coming off the playoffs and seeing the subtractions this summer has people understandably looking at the flaws but I'm not really that worried.
They have a great tandem in net, two top 10 d, a guy who would've won The Hart in a league without McDavid, another top 10 wing, solid veteran depth.
They won't have the same feel nor match-up mismatches, and aren't going to hunt records... but there's guys who will step up.

I don't expect Lucic, JVR nor Shattenkirk to fully bathe in the fountain of youth but I do expect them to have a sip or two as they will understand the situation and we'll see the best of them.
I expect Zacha and DeBrusk to have surprisingly good years.

This is Marchand, McAvoy's, Pasta's, Ullmark's, and Lindholm's team now and I trust them.