Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[Hockeyville USA]

Dallas is a team that we could mirror to some extent but I think it's a bit of a "best case scenario" deal. We would need every single guy basically to hit their potential top end of their ceiling but there are a lot of stylistic analogs between the two of them.

We probably don't have Robertson in our mix at the moment (Raymond being the closet in terms of elite 1st line Winger, but not a natural goal scorer like Robertson or has his size) - though I would argue that our upside of our blue line with Mo, Ed, ASP, and Cossa is probably higher than theirs?

Heiskanen > Seider

Edvinsson > Harley

Lindell >>> anything the Red Wings currently have

Sandin Pellikka >>> Bichsel

Oettinger >> Cossa (for now)

 

[Twinger]

Dallas is a team that we could mirror to some extent but I think it's a bit of a "best case scenario" deal. We would need every single guy basically to hit their potential top end of their ceiling but there are a lot of stylistic analogs between the two of them.

We probably don't have Robertson in our mix at the moment (Raymond being the closet in terms of elite 1st line Winger, but not a natural goal scorer like Robertson or has his size) - though I would argue that our upside of our blue line with Mo, Ed, ASP, and Cossa is probably higher than theirs?

I'd agree with our blue line being our strong point going forward. If we want to go this way we need a better system/coach. And that's something else to add to the list

 

[raymond23]

Dallas and Winnipeg are good examples of what this could turn into

Our scouting overall in North America (pro and amateur) has me doubting

 

[Carmine Cirella]

It's been 6 drafts. With averaging over 2 second round picks per draft. With some truly astoundingly bad picks. Draper/Yzerman have zero clue on what to do outside the first round.

I can only recommend going to hockeydb.com and looking at draft lists by year. Even going back to 2021 you won't find many impact players (or even just established NHLers) outside like the top 10, not to mention anyone after the 2nd round. And again, that's for 2021. For 2022, 2023 and 2024 it's even rarer.

In terms of prospect development 4 or even 5 years is really not a long timeframe. Criticizing "It's been 6 drafts" seems to be missing this point.

 

[Frk It]

Dallas and Winnipeg are good examples of what this could turn into

Our scouting overall in North America (pro and amateur) has me doubting

The picks from the WHL have been pretty good. I think Wallin is based there?

Biggest issue is probably with whoever is scouting the USHL/USDP. Whoever signed off on drafting Cleveland, James, and Phelan.

We have barely picked any players from the OHL/QMJHL. Not sure why that is. There have been a bunch of good players from the OHL the last few years.

 

[heyfolks]

Soderblom is on his way back to Sweden very soon. WE all rooted for the guy, but he just doesn't have the skill for the NHL.

Elmer Söderblom

Third season as a Griffin … Fifth year pro … Sent on loan to Tingsryd (HockeyAllsvenskan) from Frolunda J20, 1/17/20 … Signed to a two-year rookie…

griffinshockey.com

Draft round 2 onward

Detroit Red Wings Draft History at hockeydb.com

2019 - AJo
20 20- Wallinder
2021 - Buium, Mazur
2022 - Buchlenikov, Lombardi
2023 - Augustine, CLEVELAND, Finnie (Also the moves to make this draft ND, ASP and Augustine was solid work.)
2024 - I can't comment on this bunch. Not really following them.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

I believe the numbers show the Wings are doing a solid job in the draft. I stand by my B+ and no, i don't give them an F- for 2nd onward. say again, it is not the draft, it is the UFAs. Outside of the net, not one of them is worth a damn but costing a fortune.

Tarasenko and Copp for Trouba. If they want D Copp and Gustaffson

https://athlonsports.com/nhl/new-york-rangers/rangers-jacob-trouba-chris-kreider-available-trade-following-loss-vs-oilers

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Soderblom is on his way back to Sweden very soon. WE all rooted for the guy, but he just doesn't have the skill for the NHL.

...Tarasenko and Copp for Trouba. If they want D Copp and Gustaffson...

Basically, the exact same sentiments. I don't actually think the 2nd Rd Drafting + has been all that bad. With any draft pick - you measure risk vs. reward, the deeper the round, the more uncertainly or the lower the ceiling/floor you need to accept for greater probability.

These are all dart throws to some extent.

FJDKLFJD!JKF@#!@# - but we need to dig up some steals!

I mean, I guess? The one think you cannot afford to do is miss on your 1st Rd picks - which the Wings have been absolutely stellar one. Conversely, we had more '2nd Rd+' steals but missed on basically every 1st Rd pick from like 2010 to 2019. We saw the outcome of that.

We ended up with Riley Sheahan over Kuznetsov, but neat? We scored on a short stint of Pulkkinen and Mrazek. The laundry list of Svechnikovs, Cholowskis, Manthas, Sheahans, Kindl, Smith, Rasmussen, Zadina, etc. THAT is kills you. Not that we aren't finding more and a way lower chance of probability: the next AA, or Nick Jensen, etc.

The Wings have been fine with their later round picks. Is it as many swings as some people want? Probably not but to say that we've failed when we have: Buchelnikov, Mazur, Wallinder, Johansson, Buium, Lombardi, Augustine - I don't see why we would be upset by this nor the other more depth oriented pieces as all of those guys have the potential upside celings, not just depth try-hards.

 

[datsyukfan]

Basically, the exact same sentiments. I don't actually think the 2nd Rd Drafting + has been all that bad. With any draft pick - you measure risk vs. reward, the deeper the round, the more uncertainly or the lower the ceiling/floor you need to accept for greater probability.

These are all dart throws to some extent.

FJDKLFJD!JKF@#!@# - but we need to dig up some steals!

I mean, I guess? The one think you cannot afford to do is miss on your 1st Rd picks - which the Wings have been absolutely stellar one. Conversely, we had more '2nd Rd+' steals but missed on basically every 1st Rd pick from like 2010 to 2019. We saw the outcome of that.

We ended up with Riley Sheahan over Kuznetsov, but neat? We scored on a short stint of Pulkkinen and Mrazek. The laundry list of Svechnikovs, Cholowskis, Manthas, Sheahans, Kindl, Smith, Rasmussen, Zadina, etc. THAT is kills you. Not that we aren't finding more and a way lower chance of probability: the next AA, or Nick Jensen, etc.

The Wings have been fine with their later round picks. Is it as many swings as some people want? Probably not but to say that we've failed when we have: Buchelnikov, Mazur, Wallinder, Johansson, Buium, Lombardi, Augustine - I don't see why we would be upset by this nor the other more depth oriented pieces as all of those guys have the potential upside celings, not just depth try-hards.

I think it’s probably because none of them (save Johansson) are in the NHL yet.

 

[Frk It]

I would have liked to see us pick more players like Buchelnikov and Lombardi... But that said, Buchelnikov and Lombardi are having pretty strong seasons in the KHL and AHL. I personally think NDN will make that type of jump next year as well.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

I think the most important part of the rebuild is that we are virtually maxing out on our 1st round picks. Seider, Ray, Ed all playing excellent, well-rounded hockey with lots of room to grow. Kasper aged 20 steps in as #2C and suddenly we may not have a hole there on the roster after all? Offense and defense both looking more than NHL ready and he's hanging with guys like DBC and Kane

Cossa showing his raw but huge development arc with a fast start to the year and may find a cup of coffee potentially as early as 2025

Danielson, ASP, MBN all showing immediate promising returns. Something that higher picks with legitimate top6F/top4D upside usually show

There's definitely been some head-scratcher picks from rounds 2-7 since 2019. We know who those are. There's also been some potentially awesome ones. Johansson should hit if they stop sitting him for bad veterans. Mazur, Lombardi knocking on the door. Buchelnikov showing growth in the weaker parts of his game and now looking really legit. I've called him Dadonov-esque if he hits his stride in the NHL. Too early but how can you not be impressed with Trey Augustine? IMO our most overlooked prospect

Wallinder is super raw one that I hope pans out, but exactly the type of player we should have swung on. Soderblom as well. You have to respect the attempt, but I think he just might be Sweden-bound sooner rather than later

These guys need time. Look how long Berggren has needed to finally be making that impact we wanted from him, now hopefully over 82 games. Do I wish I hindsight we draft some Will Cuylles or some Ryker Evans where they are pretty quick to make their own impact on the NHL team? Yes, but statistically hitting on these players is very low

 

[heyfolks]

Basically, the exact same sentiments. I don't actually think the 2nd Rd Drafting + has been all that bad. With any draft pick - you measure risk vs. reward, the deeper the round, the more uncertainly or the lower the ceiling/floor you need to accept for greater probability.

These are all dart throws to some extent.

FJDKLFJD!JKF@#!@# - but we need to dig up some steals!

I mean, I guess? The one think you cannot afford to do is miss on your 1st Rd picks - which the Wings have been absolutely stellar one. Conversely, we had more '2nd Rd+' steals but missed on basically every 1st Rd pick from like 2010 to 2019. We saw the outcome of that.

We ended up with Riley Sheahan over Kuznetsov, but neat? We scored on a short stint of Pulkkinen and Mrazek. The laundry list of Svechnikovs, Cholowskis, Manthas, Sheahans, Kindl, Smith, Rasmussen, Zadina, etc. THAT is kills you. Not that we aren't finding more and a way lower chance of probability: the next AA, or Nick Jensen, etc.

The Wings have been fine with their later round picks. Is it as many swings as some people want? Probably not but to say that we've failed when we have: Buchelnikov, Mazur, Wallinder, Johansson, Buium, Lombardi, Augustine - I don't see why we would be upset by this nor the other more depth oriented pieces as all of those guys have the potential upside celings, not just depth try-hards.

That is the BIGGER issue. Missing on 1st round picks year after year after year and missing out on VERY GOOD to GREAT talent. I don't think Yzerman has missed on any of his 1st rounders.

 

[wingsfannn919191]

Not saying they're going to trade him but I just saw a clip on youtube of a French sports station I follow and they mentioned if it's possible the Sens trade Brady tkachuk and start yet another rebuild and how it's like 7 years hes there and they're 1 point ahead/behind of the habs

Went and check and couldn't believe hes already 25 lol .. went and check puckpedia and hes signed for 3 more years. Seeing how matthew tkachuk left canada I'm thinking its almost certain hes leaving as well especially if they keep struggling

Again wont happen but what would it take to land him if they decided to move him or he decided hes had enough

1st + 2nd + kasper + finnie .. probably not close enough and I'd hate losing kasper pushed hard for him for months prior to the draft but tkachuk would be a game changer

Again don't think sens move him but I hope yzerman keeps some cash on reserve cause I'm sure hes leaving Ottawa after the next 3 yrs

 

[wingsfannn919191]

Veleno needs to get dealt while we can still move him. 2.75 for an unproductive 4th liner isnt needed . Maybe he can play 3rd line somewhere but wont be here

 

[RED WINGS STOMP]

Yzerman may not have done everything right, but he got the cornerstone D men right.

 

[Retire91]

It's more if he's not in his prime at 30 and we don't have someone to replace him. I don't understand this magical drafting where all of our picks make it and are stars. Ed could be the next Myers and that's wheels off the defence rebuild

Larkin plays a high tempo game and is in his scoring prime right now. Kasper and Nate may be 4 years away from a ppg if they even make it.

Sure lots of cup teams can have 30+ in their top 6 but they aren't what drives a cup team, below are 30+ top 6 players.
Panthers - Rodrigues
Vegas would be your best one with marchessalut, smith, stone and karlsson
Avs Kadri
Lightings last cup - Stamkos and headman

I'm going to lean towards the players we have drafted not turing out like your Barkovs, Mackinnons, Kucherovs, Eichels

And I'm not looking at cup run in 2 years, more like playoffs in 2 then 2 years of teeth cutting and then maybe contenders.

Is Lalonde even here next year? Is the next coach the one to take us to the playoffs or is it another 2 or 3 years of finding a coach to put a system in place?

Of the 240 teams to find themselves in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving since the 2005-06 season*, 184 have gone on to make the post-season the following spring. That’s a 76.7 per cent success rate. Of the 56 teams that fell out of the picture after the Thanksgiving milestone, 31 were hovering within a single point of the final wild-card berth. Just two teams in the salary-cap era have found themselves outside the playoffs after sitting ahead of the final berth by 10 or more points.

(*This statistic does not include the 2019-20 or 2020-21 seasons, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.)

What U.S. Thanksgiving standings tell us about 2023-24 NHL playoff hopes

As most hockey fans know, U.S. Thanksgiving has long been an unofficial marker against which to gauge a franchise’s post-season hopes. But will history repeat itself? Emily Sadler takes a look.

www.sportsnet.ca

I mean I am not strongly disagreeing with you but in summary one could just say the future is uncertain. That would also be 2-4 more seasons of drafts and trades and by then we will solidly know what we have from Yzerman's first 4-5 seasons of drafting. Given the current data set the team has consistently trended upwards in talent through the draft and there are potential stars still yet to take the roster. We are just in that period where plugs are on the roster waiting for the kids to find their game. Yeah it sucks but no reason to throw in the towel.

 

[Gniwder]

The picks from the WHL have been pretty good. I think Wallin is based there?

Biggest issue is probably with whoever is scouting the USHL/USDP. Whoever signed off on drafting Cleveland, James, and Phelan.

We have barely picked any players from the OHL/QMJHL. Not sure why that is. There have been a bunch of good players from the OHL the last few years.

They probably watch USDP a lot since they're local and fall in love with some random kid because of one good play.

OHL teams are few hours of drive time. No frequent flyer miles. I'm really convinced that whole staff is just lazy. Regardless, they need to be overhauled along with the pro scouts.

OHL team location map:

 

[TheOctopusKid]

They probably watch USDP a lot since they're local and fall in love with some random kid because of one good play.

OHL teams are few hours of drive time. No frequent flyer miles. I'm really convinced that whole staff is just lazy. Regardless, they need to be overhauled along with the pro scouts.

OHL team location map:

Not to step on a funny post - but the scouts often live in the area where they are responsible for scouting. Our amateur scouts are no different: looking at Linkedin, you can see they are all over - all over Canada, Europe, and the US.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Specifically about the O...

Looks like Kelly Harper is your guy, Sudbury native and was cited in this article re: Andrew Gibson.

Draper described Gibson as a "big right shot d-man." "Good size, moves the puck well, has a bit of an edge to his game," Draper said. "He was actually off to a really good start this year in the Soo, but he got injured and came back for the U-18s, played for Canada...As you're sitting there, you put your list together, these names start coming fast off the board, and he was a guy we were able to see a lot of playing up in the Soo. A guy that Ontario scout Kelly Harper really liked."

Been with the Wings since 2013 as an amateur scout.

So, the last 12 years of OHL picks were probably coming from his clipboard

 

[Gniwder]

Not to step on a funny post - but the scouts often live in the area where they are responsible for scouting. Our amateur scouts are no different: looking at Linkedin, you can see they are all over - all over Canada, Europe, and the US.

Yeah, but scouting in the WHL requires flying even if you're local. There's a lot more distance between the teams out here. All about the frequent flyer miles, lol.

All joking aside, the team needs to fire half the scouts, maybe more.

 

[Gniwder]

Specifically about the O...

Looks like Kelly Harper is your guy, Sudbury native and was cited in this article re: Andrew Gibson.

Draper described Gibson as a "big right shot d-man." "Good size, moves the puck well, has a bit of an edge to his game," Draper said. "He was actually off to a really good start this year in the Soo, but he got injured and came back for the U-18s, played for Canada...As you're sitting there, you put your list together, these names start coming fast off the board, and he was a guy we were able to see a lot of playing up in the Soo. A guy that Ontario scout Kelly Harper really liked."

Been with the Wings since 2013 as an amateur scout.

So, the last 12 years of OHL picks were probably coming from his clipboard

Looking at the OHL picks over the years, they're actually not bad. Most of them are latter round picks though. I think the question is why is the team picking garbage players from USHL like Cleveland, Phelan, and James with 2nd round picks instead of better players from the OHL.

Aside from Lombardi and AA, they're mostly "hard to play against" guys, which is fine for latter round defensemen. Would prefer to pick high potential scoring forwards instead of hoping to find another Bert. You can see that players like him are an anomaly.

OHL picks, last dozen drafts:
2024 4th Miller
2023 2nd Gibson
2022 4th Lombardi
2022 5th Mathurin
2021 6th Zito
2020 3rd Sebrango
2019 none
2018 3rd Regula
2017 3rd Gallant
2017 5th Fraser
2017 6th Webb and Gilmour
2016 2nd Givani
2016 5th Sambrook
2015 none
2014 none
2013 2nd Nastasiuk, Bert
2012 3rd Patterson
2012 4th AA

 

[Ulysses31]

edit

 

[Ulysses31]

Soderblom is on his way back to Sweden very soon. WE all rooted for the guy, but he just doesn't have the skill for the NHL.

Elmer Söderblom

Third season as a Griffin … Fifth year pro … Sent on loan to Tingsryd (HockeyAllsvenskan) from Frolunda J20, 1/17/20 … Signed to a two-year rookie…

griffinshockey.com

Draft round 2 onward

Detroit Red Wings Draft History at hockeydb.com

2019 - AJo
20 20- Wallinder
2021 - Buium, Mazur
2022 - Buchlenikov, Lombardi
2023 - Augustine, CLEVELAND, Finnie (Also the moves to make this draft ND, ASP and Augustine was solid work.)
2024 - I can't comment on this bunch. Not really following them.

View attachment 935384

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

I believe the numbers show the Wings are doing a solid job in the draft. I stand by my B+ and no, i don't give them an F- for 2nd onward. say again, it is not the draft, it is the UFAs. Outside of the net, not one of them is worth a damn but costing a fortune.

Tarasenko and Copp for Trouba. If they want D Copp and Gustaffson

https://athlonsports.com/nhl/new-york-rangers/rangers-jacob-trouba-chris-kreider-available-trade-following-loss-vs-oilers

Soderblom is not going back to sweden as far as i can see.
"Third season as a Griffin … Fifth year pro … Sent on loan to Tingsryd (HockeyAllsvenskan) from Frolunda J20, 1/17/20 … Signed to a two-year rookie contract by Frolunda HC (SHL), 4/3/20 … Signed to a three-year entry-level contract by Detroit, 6/9/22 ... Assigned by Detroit, 12/9/22 ... Recalled by Detroit, 12/14/22 ... Reassigned by Detroit, 1/8/23 ... Assigned by Detroit, 10/8/23 ... Assigned by Detroit, 10/6/24. "

 

[Lampedampe]

To beat a dead horse:

Ed-Mo
Walman-Hronek
Chiarot-Maata

This would have been a decent defense.

My hope is that Yzerman is setting us up for a elite defense with:

Ed-Mo
X-ASP
X-X

We'll see though, it's atleast 2 years out.