Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[RabidBadger]

As the team gets better so will his picks of ufa’s

Yeah, I don't think UFA's are lining up to go to any bottom dwelling teams. To expound on your point, I don't think the need for UFAs will be as pressing when the team gets better.

 

[Dotter]

Call me a homer, but I think Yzerman has been playing 3D chess. He GMs like he played hockey, he was always 3 steps ahead of the play. DMAC has been saying the same thing if you listen to him.

Yzerman isn't transparent and keeps everyone on their toes, including the fans. I am fine with that!

- Yman is trying to balance drafting decent positions; 6th, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 15th (MBN), and ice a team that appears to be on the upswing. (look at the jump from 2019 to 2024)

- Trying to inject FA depth to both help not win enough to draft after 15th, but also give Larkin and core a carrot to "try" to make the playoffs. To seem somewhat competitive. Guys will bail if they think Detroit is a sinking ship.

- Helps hold back Sieder, ED and Raymond's production so he can negotiate a slightly better contract.

The proof to my speculation is look at the contract terms. I do think Yzerman probably expected a wee-bit more out of Copp, and Holl was a swing and a miss. While Holl was a failure, Copp is an [overpaid] serviceable 3rd line center who plays responsibly. Kasper will take his job in a season or two.

I like Husso, but you can't predict injuries. Lyon was a brilliant signing.

So I agree that some Yzerman moves have been an undesirable gamble. But not one move hurt the team long term. I would argue it has played out nicely long term; see all the recent core contracts.

I don't expect to make the playoffs this season, but I do think it is going to be an exciting year in the east with Sabres, Ott, Devils, Caps, etc. I don't expect Yzerman to have his team until Cossa or Augustine to graduate and become the top horse. Once one goalie becomes that, then I think you'll see an aggressive 'win now' Yzerman. If both bomb, then who knows... let's be optimistic and hopeful.

 

[schuelma24]

My opinion is that A- he's made a decent amount of questionable moves the last 2 years; B; none of those moves were catastrophic long term mistakes and C- he's set the team up extremely well for the next 3-5 years by locking up Ray/Mo to very reasonable deals and has a lot of cap coming off and a lot of young guys set to come up.

I'm very optimistic.

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

Signs way too many redundant, mediocre vets

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Call me a homer, but I think Yzerman has been playing 3D chess. He GMs like he played hockey, he was always 3 steps ahead of the play. DMAC has been saying the same thing if you listen to him.

Yzerman isn't transparent and keeps everyone on their toes, including the fans. I am fine with that!

- Yman is trying to balance drafting decent positions; 6th, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 15th (MBN), and ice a team that appears to be on the upswing. (look at the jump from 2019 to 2024)

- Trying to inject FA depth to both help not win enough to draft after 15th, but also give Larkin and core a carrot to "try" to make the playoffs. To seem somewhat competitive. Guys will bail if they think Detroit is a sinking ship.

- Helps hold back Sieder, ED and Raymond's production so he can negotiate a slightly better contract.

The proof to my speculation is look at the contract terms. I do think Yzerman probably expected a wee-bit more out of Copp, and Holl was a swing and a miss. While Holl was a failure, Copp is an [overpaid] serviceable 3rd line center who plays responsibly. Kasper will take his job in a season or two.

I like Husso, but you can't predict injuries. Lyon was a brilliant signing.

So I agree that some Yzerman moves have been an undesirable gamble. But not one move hurt the team long term. I would argue it has played out nicely long term; see all the recent core contracts.

I don't expect to make the playoffs this season, but I do think it is going to be an exciting year in the east with Sabres, Ott, Devils, Caps, etc. I don't expect Yzerman to have his team until Cossa or Augustine to graduate and become the top horse. Once one goalie becomes that, then I think you'll see an aggressive 'win now' Yzerman. If both bomb, then who knows... let's be optimistic and hopeful.

I agree with some of these.

However... He was not holding back Raymond or Seider. Seider's deployment is because they knew they were going to need him to carry a huge heft defensively, so they didn't give him PP1 as well. He still played a lot on the power play. Raymond wasn't held back... he just was okay and then in the last two months of the year exploded huge.

Yzerman signed the Holl, Maatta, Copp, Compher guys so that they could have actually competitive games instead of getting caved in 6-1, 5-2, etc. while they rolled in Raymond and Seider and Ed and anyone else. It's not "be good enough to not lose, but not draft later than 15th. He's been hoping that they make the playoffs. Those were moves that they were hoping would get them to the playoffs.
The bigger point is that they only want to give long term (6+ years) to guys like Larkin, Raymond, and Seider. Everyone else, they get 4 years at max so there is roster mobility if they happen to land a really good young player.

 

[Dotter]

I agree with some of these.

However... He was not holding back Raymond or Seider. Seider's deployment is because they knew they were going to need him to carry a huge heft defensively, so they didn't give him PP1 as well. He still played a lot on the power play. Raymond wasn't held back... he just was okay and then in the last two months of the year exploded huge.

Yzerman signed the Holl, Maatta, Copp, Compher guys so that they could have actually competitive games instead of getting caved in 6-1, 5-2, etc. while they rolled in Raymond and Seider and Ed and anyone else. It's not "be good enough to not lose, but not draft later than 15th. He's been hoping that they make the playoffs. Those were moves that they were hoping would get them to the playoffs.
The bigger point is that they only want to give long term (6+ years) to guys like Larkin, Raymond, and Seider. Everyone else, they get 4 years at max so there is roster mobility if they happen to land a really good young player.

I agree Seider and Raymond had plenty of minutes last season, but I don't think Yzerman maximized Seider's support to help "bloat" stats - (I know GMs don't coach, but I think there is something to it - i.e., not calling up ED). Raymond did have Larkin and Cat.... so yeah, I was wrong there.... that is not "trying to hold him back". I stand corrected.

I think Seider on PP1 and being used in a more offensive role will prove to be favorable. I think he has untapped offense. I don't think Yzerman wanted to untap that potential before contract negotiations. I think if Ed played last season, Wings make the playoffs. That's part of the reason why I think Yzerman is dangling a carrot. If you want to win, you play your best players. Ed would have eaten a lot of minutes, and it would look really nice on paper when the next contract negotiations begin.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I agree Seider and Raymond had plenty of minutes last season, but I don't think Yzerman maximized Seider's support to help "bloat" stats - (I know GMs don't coach, but I think there is something to it - i.e., not calling up ED). Raymond did have Larkin and Cat.... so yeah, I was wrong there.... that is not "trying to hold him back". I stand corrected.

I think Seider on PP1 and being used in a more offensive role will prove to be favorable. I think he has untapped offense. I don't think Yzerman wanted to untap that potential before contract negotiations. I think if Ed played last season, Wings make the playoffs. That's part of the reason why I think Yzerman is dangling a carrot. If you want to win, you play your best players. Ed would have eaten a lot of minutes, and it would look really nice on paper when the next contract negotiations begin.

Right, but the point that some (and it seems like you also) wanted to make is that Yzerman fiddled with Seider's deployment to lower his cap hit. Even if it did provide that benefit, there is a legitimate hockey reason why you would sign Shayne Gostisbehere and give him PP1 minutes in 2023 instead of doing everything for the greater glory of Moritz Seider and his upcoming deal.

Seider is played around 17 mins a night EV, 2.5 minutes on the PK, and another 2 on the PP. He's still just finished his 3rd season in the league. His deployment was designed to utilize him in every situation, not just the situations where he can pot points.... because he will be one of their two best players on the ice any given night.

He didn't instruct Lalonde to maximize support to bloat Seider's stats because to do so would be an idiotic way to try to win hockey games. The Wings in 1996-97 could have rolled even harder on teams if they deployed the Russian Five with abandon. They didn't, because there is a lot more overall value to the team if you keep the nuclear weapon locked up until you need it and deploy the individual pieces throughout the lineup. It's why Babcock kept trying to establish Datsyuk and Z as centers of their own lines instead of slapping the Eurotwins together forever.

Further, they didn't call up Ed because although people hated it forever... Yzerman sticks with the ripe/overripe pihlosophy. People in the hockey world value the development time in the AHL one gigantic hell of a lot more than most on this site. He doesn't want a guy like Edvinsson to come up and flounder for a meh team when he could be in GR on a good roster, being a leader. Develop good habits as opposed to having to cheat this way or that to simply survive in the NHL.

 

[Dotter]

Further, they didn't call up Ed because although people hated it forever... Yzerman sticks with the ripe/overripe pihlosophy. People in the hockey world value the development time in the AHL one gigantic hell of a lot more than most on this site. He doesn't want a guy like Edvinsson to come up and flounder for a meh team when he could be in GR on a good roster, being a leader. Develop good habits as opposed to having to cheat this way or that to simply survive in the NHL.

Seider and Raymond didn't have much AHL time. I think Ed (last season) was every bit deserving as those guys - so overripe makes no sense on using the aforementioned examples, ED would have gotten the minutes. *had Ed played, that would undoubtedly given significant help towards Seider's ridiculous workload, allowing Moritz to play a more offensive role. It makes sense why Ed wasn't brought up. 2-fold; helps keep Seider's production down, and gives Simon less(er) negotiation clout.

Do you honestly think Ed wasn't ready? I doubt anyone would agree with you. And using the overripe rule falls short when you look at Raymond and Seider's trajectory.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Seider and Raymond didn't have much AHL time. I think Ed (last season) was every bit deserving as those guys - so overripe makes no sense on using the aforementioned examples, ED would have gotten the minutes. *had Ed played, that would undoubtedly given significant help towards Seider's ridiculous workload, allowing Moritz to play a more offensive role. It makes sense why Ed wasn't brought up. 2-fold; helps keep Seider's production down, and gives Simon less(er) negotiation clout.

Do you honestly think Ed wasn't ready? I doubt anyone would agree with you. And using the overripe rule falls short when you look at Raymond and Seider's trajectory.

Ed was coming off shoulder surgery and did not look good enough in preseason to warrant getting into the lineup. I guess you could say he was a little overripe in that I was hoping he'd be in the lineup for about half the season. But in no way was he where Seider was at when Mo came into the lineup full time.

Even when he was in the lineup, Ed looked like what he was, a promising young defenseman. But not someone who was ridiculously overripe.

 

[Dotter]

Ed was coming off shoulder surgery and did not look good enough in preseason to warrant getting into the lineup. I guess you could say he was a little overripe in that I was hoping he'd be in the lineup for about half the season. But in no way was he where Seider was at when Mo came into the lineup full time.

Even when he was in the lineup, Ed looked like what he was, a promising young defenseman. But not someone who was ridiculously overripe.

That's not how I saw it. He looked like he didn't belong in the AHL to me. He could have easily been in the NHL last season. I would even argue if he played (even half the season), Wings would have found their way into the playoffs. He was quickly proving to be a real difference maker.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

That's not how I saw it. He looked like he didn't belong in the AHL to me. He could have easily been in the NHL last season. I would even argue if he played (even half the season), Wings would have found their way into the playoffs. He was quickly proving to be a real difference maker.

I didn't see him play in the AHL but in his 4 or 5 preseason games he was fine but nothing special. Coming off shoulder surgery I'm ok with him spending half a season in Grand Rapids playing big minutes.

The Wings went something like 7 wins and 9 losses with him in the lineup. I think he will be a big difference maker, but I don't know that him playing earlier in the season would've put them in the playoffs any more than any of the other things they could've done differently. Their issues are bigger than one rookie Dman can fix.

 

[Dotter]

I didn't see him play in the AHL but in his 4 or 5 preseason games he was fine but nothing special. Coming off shoulder surgery I'm ok with him spending half a season in Grand Rapids playing big minutes.

The Wings went something like 7 wins and 9 losses with him in the lineup. I think he will be a big difference maker, but I don't know that him playing earlier in the season would've put them in the playoffs any more than any of the other things they could've done differently. Their issues are bigger than one rookie Dman can fix.

Eh. 1 point is the difference between one assist or one defensive play. He was better than at least four other starters on the roster.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Seider and Raymond didn't have much AHL time. I think Ed (last season) was every bit deserving as those guys - so overripe makes no sense on using the aforementioned examples, ED would have gotten the minutes. *had Ed played, that would undoubtedly given significant help towards Seider's ridiculous workload, allowing Moritz to play a more offensive role. It makes sense why Ed wasn't brought up. 2-fold; helps keep Seider's production down, and gives Simon less(er) negotiation clout.

Do you honestly think Ed wasn't ready? I doubt anyone would agree with you. And using the overripe rule falls short when you look at Raymond and Seider's trajectory.

And I don't think that he was. Seider in the preseason of his rookie year was outstanding. Raymond, pretty notably had to pass the "Mrs. Blashill" test to be called up to the National League in his rookie season.

They, along with Larkin, were heads and shoulders better than everyone else on the ice. That is decidedly not where Simon Edvinsson is or has been at.

Edvinsson would not have gotten heavy NHL minutes were he brought up to start the year. And it's more likely that he would have been getting caved in with a slow return from injury combined with the huge jump up in quality of competition.

And NO, their management of Simon Edvinsson has nothing to do with his contract or Mo's contract and everything to do with them wanting to put a massive load on Seider's shoulders (because that's what he'll be doing going forward) and not throw a rookie directly to the wolves. You're assuming that the Wings would have just earned another couple points by doing this... when it's equally, if not more, likely that they don't earn as many points in November, December, and January having Edvinsson in there, green as goose shit.

 

[Dotter]

And I don't think that he was. Seider in the preseason of his rookie year was outstanding. Raymond, pretty notably had to pass the "Mrs. Blashill" test to be called up to the National League in his rookie season.

They, along with Larkin, were heads and shoulders better than everyone else on the ice. That is decidedly not where Simon Edvinsson is or has been at.

Edvinsson would not have gotten heavy NHL minutes were he brought up to start the year. And it's more likely that he would have been getting caved in with a slow return from injury combined with the huge jump up in quality of competition.

And NO, their management of Simon Edvinsson has nothing to do with his contract or Mo's contract and everything to do with them wanting to put a massive load on Seider's shoulders (because that's what he'll be doing going forward) and not throw a rookie directly to the wolves. You're assuming that the Wings would have just earned another couple points by doing this... when it's equally, if not more, likely that they don't earn as many points in November, December, and January having Edvinsson in there, green as goose shit.

I believe it was December when I went to a Griffin game and, to me, edvinsson looked like he belonged in the NHL. I think Wings close out the year with a few more points if Simon played at the very least a half season. We can speculate all we want, but you're not going to change my mind on that point.

 

[ricky0034]

anyone that doesn't think the Wings would have made the Playoffs last year if Edvinsson was up sooner should be straight up panicking at this teams Defense this year

 

[norrisnick]

anyone that doesn't think the Wings would have made the Playoffs last year if Edvinsson was up sooner should be straight up panicking at this teams Defense this year

This forum is going to be lousy with posters claiming that the only reason Ed looks as good as he'll look this season is because he was left down in the AHL as long as he was.

 

[SirKillalot]

Last year's team would be no closer to playoffs with Edvinsson in the lineup last season. He's not a defenseman that elevates a pair or line on his on merit at this stage. Now, I do think he will get there, but he projects and is looking to be a support/cover defenseman and not "the guy", albeit if everything goes well he will be a very good one where he will either be a solid 2nd pair reliable defenseman or manage to get to 1st pair defenseman quality lets say how Suter was to Weber in the Nashville days. A solid 2nd d-man guy with 1st d-man elevation performances at times or potentially years.

Him playing last year with questionable paired up teammates wouldn't made much of a difference, but got strong belief he will get there. He will be a steak for us. Reliable long term.

 

[Oddbob]

Ed was nothing special in his late season call up. He was fine, but he was far from blow you away good. When Seider came in, he was immediately very good, and that is not what Ed has been so far. Lots of skill for sure, but he was definitely raw.

 

[norrisnick]

Last year's team would be no closer to playoffs with Edvinsson in the lineup last season. He's not a defenseman that elevates a pair or line on his on merit at this stage. Now, I do think he will get there, but he projects and is looking to be a support/cover defenseman and not "the guy", albeit if everything goes well he will be a very good one where he will either be a solid 2nd pair reliable defenseman or manage to get to 1st pair defenseman quality lets say how Suter was to Weber in the Nashville days. A solid 2nd d-man guy with 1st d-man elevation performances at times or potentially years.

Him playing last year with questionable paired up teammates wouldn't made much of a difference, but got strong belief he will get there. He will be a steak for us. Reliable long term.

Ed projects to be as good or better than Mo. Not sure where this support 2nd pairing stuff is coming from. Case in point the Suter comment. Suter was arguably a better defenseman than Weber. He just played a quieter game and subsequently got less attention.

 

[Pavels Dog]

And I don't think that he was. Seider in the preseason of his rookie year was outstanding. Raymond, pretty notably had to pass the "Mrs. Blashill" test to be called up to the National League in his rookie season.

They, along with Larkin, were heads and shoulders better than everyone else on the ice. That is decidedly not where Simon Edvinsson is or has been at.

Some hindsight there imo. Here are some comments from the Red vs. White game in 2021:

GDT: Red vs White Game - Started at Noon

forums.hfboards.com

I'm sure he'll adjust, but Seider does look a bit behind the pace today imo.

Man, Seider got torched by Suter there.

Seider got walked. Wasn't expecting that.

This is a tough setting for seider.

And just like that, finally everyone’s expectations of Seider have come back down to earth.

Seider is simply limiting his power level so others can try to get spots on the team

It's fine, Seider's a great prospect and it's just one scrimmage. But I'm not sure why people have such a tough time admitting that Seider might not be this perfectly-polished player at twenty years old.

I pretty vividly recall that Seider wasn't doing anything overly impressive in preseason. Raymond a bit more so with his scoring, but he also wasn't necessarily consistently head and shoulders above everyone.

Ed was nothing special in his late season call up. He was fine, but he was far from blow you away good. When Seider came in, he was immediately very good, and that is not what Ed has been so far. Lots of skill for sure, but he was definitely raw.

Edvinsson has always been far more raw. They are extremely different physiologically and mentally and Edvinsson is probably 5+ years away from reaching his prime. Seider can still improve but he doesn't necessarily have massive untapped potential in the way Edvinsson has.

 

[SirKillalot]

Ed projects to be as good or better than Mo. Not sure where this support 2nd pairing stuff is coming from. Case in point the Suter comment. Suter was arguably a better defenseman than Weber. He just played a quieter game and subsequently got less attention.

Ed hasn't been projected to be better than Mo. Maybe in the draft year cause people know more about him than they knew Mo and Mo was drafted higher than projected.

I haven't heard many call Suter better defenseman than Weber. Though they were looked upon as being arguably the best d-men pair in the league and both has had solid careers. But Weber was always number one and Suter 2, now obviously both ended up having really solid careers and Suter a bit longer given Weber's injury.

Now Edvinsson can become that. Let's all agree he will be at least a solid 2nd pair d-man. Then he can become a 2nd d-man guy, I'd say its a pretty good chance he will be. He could also end up becoming a 1st d-man guy, time will tell when he gets his feet wet.
It could also mean he becomes a 2nd d-man/1st d-pair guy who's playing on the 2nd pair and run his own d-pair. Idk if he has that in him yet.

What is good about Edvinsson is that he has a lot of confidence and he is a really easy going guy. And yes he has stepped up and knocked some well known players over, if he is going to take that step up, he needs to have I'd say a little bit of a chirp/mean/nasty side come out.

Personality wise he's a bit more goofy/daring than Lidstrom and Kronwall was, but got that big guy/good heart side to him. Of course one hopes he will take it all the way to the top, but not gonna expect it, rather be positively surprised if he does.

 

[norrisnick]

Ed hasn't been projected to be better than Mo. Maybe in the draft year cause people know more about him than they knew Mo and Mo was drafted higher than projected.

I haven't heard many call Suter better defenseman than Weber. Though they were looked upon as being arguably the best d-men pair in the league and both has had solid careers. But Weber was always number one and Suter 2, now obviously both ended up having really solid careers and Suter a bit longer given Weber's injury.

Now Edvinsson can become that. Let's all agree he will be at least a solid 2nd pair d-man. Then he can become a 2nd d-man guy, I'd say its a pretty good chance he will be. He could also end up becoming a 1st d-man guy, time will tell when he gets his feet wet.
It could also mean he becomes a 2nd d-man/1st d-pair guy who's playing on the 2nd pair and run his own d-pair. Idk if he has that in him yet.

What is good about Edvinsson is that he has a lot of confidence and he is a really easy going guy. And yes he has stepped up and knocked some well known players over, if he is going to take that step up, he needs to have I'd say a little bit of a chirp/mean/nasty side come out.

Personality wise he's a bit more goofy/daring than Lidstrom and Kronwall was, but got that big guy/good heart side to him. Of course one hopes he will take it all the way to the top, but not gonna expect it, rather be positively surprised if he does.

There was only one season when they were both in Nashville when Weber had more TOI/GM than Suter. So Trotz knew what was what. And as soon as Suter left he started getting way more Norris votes when voters realized surprise surprise it wasn't the Rob Blake clone doing the carrying.

 

[izlez]

Regarding the idea that Edvinsson was ready much sooner and would have helped us get into the playoffs, I disagree, and point to some stats I pulled and posted earlier:

I brought up the idea of Edvinsson not making the team out of training camp right after free agency, and I still think that is a real possibility. We didn't exactly keep room for him with our offseason moves.

I do have to admit that he did really start to put it together at the end of last year though. Here are some numbers I posted in February where I was trying to show my concern for Edvinsson not being ready yet:

	GA/60	HDCA/60
Edvinsson	4.82	12.73
Chiarot	3.3	12.17
Gostisbehere	2.68	11.13
Holl	2.63	11.26
Petry	2.55	9.48

And here is where they sit looking at last season as a whole:

	GA/60	HDCA/60
Ben Chiarot	3.44	11.32
Jake Walman	3.32	13.23
Jeff Petry	3.1	10.35
Moritz Seider	3.07	12.91
Simon Edvinsson	2.94	9.04
Justin Holl	2.42	11.16
Shayne Gostisbehere	2.4	10.02
Olli Maatta	1.89	9.14

So it looks like he has definitely made some improvements

 

[Scottgaf1]

One thing we have to understand is that GMs have to answer to an owner and their fan base.

Sure you could run a team like a video game and sign no middling guys, rank for the top pick every year and then sign all the top FAs.

Reality is you have to compete enough to drive ticket sales, show enough that you get to see the end of the rebuild, and keep improving.

The only teams making huge jumps have lottery luck go their way.

Many of us don't like the Copp, Husso, Holl, etc signings, but none of them lie in a potential cup window. They are buying time, grooming the young guys, and keeping this team competitive.

 

[SirloinUB]

One thing we have to understand is that GMs have to answer to an owner and their fan base.

Sure you could run a team like a video game and sign no middling guys, rank for the top pick every year and then sign all the top FAs.

Reality is you have to compete enough to drive ticket sales, show enough that you get to see the end of the rebuild, and keep improving.

The only teams making huge jumps have lottery luck go their way.

Many of us don't like the Copp, Husso, Holl, etc signings, but none of them lie in a potential cup window. They are buying time, grooming the young guys, and keeping this team competitive.

Specifically regarding Copp and Chairot: I dont remember the specifics but as I recall Yzerman HAD to significant money to hit the cap floor and the overall UFA class was unspectacular. If it wasnt these guys it would have been someone of a similar nature.