Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[SirloinUB]

Well I agree with you that it’s a futile exercise. We as fans have no ability to set demands for Yzerman, and Yzerman himself has made it clear that’s he’s not going to communicate a timeline.

The point of my question is mostly to clarify exactly what people mean when they say to have “patience.” Like, pretend you’re Chris Illitch (plz build the District Chris). You want to let Yzerman see this rebuild through, but you’re also running a business. Does he have total carte blanche? Or is there a date by which you say, hey Steve, you’ve had X years. We still haven’t made the playoffs let alone truly contended. Thanks for everything but we need to go in another direction.

I think its important to have a vision and a guiding strategy but Yzerman's plan and subsequent timelines should be altered by each outcome of events.

For all we know, when Stevey Y was hired he and Chris discussed a 6 year journey. But then in reality this team got no lottery luck and top free agents had no interest in coming here. I would hope Yzerman/Illitch would look at those outcomes and adjust the timeline accordingly.

having the mindset of "6 years was the goal and its now been 6 years so you failed" is counterproductive when real outcomes (outside of Yzerman's control) have been barriers to success.

Building a team is such a dynamic and nebulous journey and you need to be able to calibrate and recalibrate expectations based on an evolving situation.

 

[Dotter]

I don't know, Billy. Let's look at the graph below together, and YOU point to me where YOU THINK the rebuild went wrong...

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I think its important to have a vision and a guiding strategy but Yzerman's plan and subsequent timelines should be altered by each outcome of events.

For all we know, when Stevey Y got hired he and Chris discussed a 6 year journey. But then in reality this team got no lottery luck and top free agents had no interest in coming here. I would hope Yzerman/Illitch would look at those outcomes and adjust the timeline accordingly.

having the mindset of "6 years was the goal and its now been 6 years so you failed" is counterproductive when real outcomes (outside of Yzerman's control) have been barriers to success.

Building a team is such a dynamic and nebulous journey and you need to be able to calibrate and recalibrate expectations based on an evolving situation.

Sure, I hear you. And not to sound like a jerk, because I genuinely do get where you’re coming from, but at any point along that dynamic and nebulous journey do you think it’s fair to recalibrate our expectations to be part of the 50% of NHL teams that make the playoffs?

I think there should be a degree of fluidity to expectations for any executive, but the buck has to stop somewhere in my view. I don’t think any executive should have carte blanche, and imo never defining a timeline for success is essentially carte blanche. But again smart people disagree here I get where people are coming from.

 

[Bench]

My intent isn't to litigate Holland's moves. There are plenty of examples of rebuilds taking 8+ years. In reality quick turn arounds are the exceptions and they are driven by lottery luck.

Exactly. Even with lottery luck it's a long process. I feel like people already know Tampa took a decade. Hedman was drafted in 2009 and he won his first Cup in 2020. It's a process.

For example, the Colorado Avalanche. In reality, their rebuild started in 2009 drafting Matt Duchene at 3rd overall. From 2010 to 2018, they Avalanche only made the playoffs twice, losing in the 1st round both times. In 2013 they get gifted one of the most talented players of the generation in MacKinnon. But they still don't get to the 3rd round until they break through and win the whole damn thing in 2022.

That "rebuild" took from 2009 to 2022 to finally payout. That's 13 years of meandering and building and retooling until they became the Avalanche everyone respects today. And with the benefit of a 1st overall generational player and multiple other top 5 picks.

Unfortunately, Holland left the Wings with an empty prospect pool and a handful of good but not great players, excluding Larkin who most feel is great but not in that elite level. It was a total rebuild from the ground up when Yzerman started, including needing to buyout bad contracts.

He's a good GM but he's not a miracle worker, so the process is still happening. And even if everything falls perfectly, as we've seen numerous times, it can still take a decade.

 

[Henkka]

I don't know, Billy. Let's look at the graph below together, and YOU point to me where YOU THINK the rebuild went wrong...

Buffalo Sabres last seasons as comparison:

2015 - tanked
2016 - went UP!
2017 - went down
2018 - went down and tanked again!
2019 - went UP!
2020 - went slightly up
2021 - went down and tanked again!
2022 - went UP!
2023 - went UP!
2024 - went down.

 

[saska sault]

Buffalo Sabres last seasons as comparison:

View attachment 891555

2015 - tanked
2016 - went UP!
2017 - went down
2018 - went down and tanked again!
2019 - went UP!
2020 - went slightly up
2021 - went down and tanked again!
2022 - went UP!
2023 - went UP!
2024 - went down.

Draft position < An actual plan

 

[Henkka]

Draft position < An actual plan

Nope.

Just a rollercoaster from first rebuild (losing Eichel) to another, when the organization does not have any long-term plan.

 

[JoesuffP]

we still haven’t missed on a first round pick
Good cap structure going forward
Loaded prospect pool
Haven’t committed to anything besides Larkin/Seider/Raymond good choices

It’s time to make the playoffs now tho anything less is a failure

 

[Bench]

Yzerman when people keep interrupting his rebuild.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Right, the attempt from the Ilitch/Holland camp to hold on as long as possible is because they thought the rebuild was going to be very lengthy. They were absolutely right.

Oh and how did retool on the fly work out?

 

[Henkka]

Oh and how did retool on the fly work out?

Pretty well from 1998 to 2002 to 2008.

 

[Run the Jewels]

My intent isn't to litigate Holland's moves. There are plenty of examples of rebuilds taking 8+ years. In reality quick turn arounds are the exceptions and they are driven by lottery luck.

Holland attempted to retool on the fly and failed miserably. There's a reason he's no longer in Detroit or Edmonton. Relying on his NA scouting was also idiotic given their awful track record outside of Larkin.

He was at his best when he could outspend everyone else and trade 1st rounders to fill holes in the roster. Those days are long gone.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Pretty well from 1998 to 2002 to 2008.

LOL his retool on the fly was essentially 'luck into a sure fire hall of famer with the #171 pick in the 1998 draft and a borderline hall of famer with the #210 pick in the 1999 draft'. To his credit he's admitted that was pure luck.

His reliance on his NA scouting department with most of his first round picks tells you what was up with Holland's retool on the fly: it was a total failure.

 

[Euro Twins]

Why should they have Michkov? He went 2 selections before the Wings picked.

Because that would be an earlier pick. If we had the 7th pick and got michkov then we should have picked 5th. Ffs the way people are on here if we had the number 1 pick it wouldn't be good enough and we should have picked last year.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Because that would be an earlier pick. If we had the 7th pick and got michkov then we should have picked 5th. Ffs the way people are on here if we had the number 1 pick it wouldn't be good enough and we should have picked last year.

I don't speak that.

Translation?

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

Let's not forget we play in the hardest division in the league by far. Each year we go in with Leafs, Bruins, Panthers and Lightning as not only playoff favorites but legitimate Stanley Cup threats. It's hard to get a leg up when you have to fight tooth and nail against all of those teams.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Why should they have Michkov? He went 2 selections before the Wings picked.

I think it was commonly known that Arizona (picking at 6) wanted a defenseman (Reinbacher or Simashev, they weren't likely taking Sandin Pellika due to having Soderstrom) and could have gotten a D by trading down. It was becoming more well known in the week leading up to the draft that Philadelphia (picking at 7) was targeting Michkov more heavily, so if you're Yzerman and the Wings, you'd have to trade up to 6 with Arizona to get Michkov. You're not giving up 17, but you could have easily given up 42 and 43 (essentially became Gibson and later Cleveland) to move up to 6. These things were discussed at the time, at least somewhat.

 

[Euro Twins]

I think it was commonly known that Arizona (picking at 6) wanted a defenseman (Reinbacher or Simashev, they weren't likely taking Sandin Pellika due to having Soderstrom) and could have gotten a D by trading down. It was becoming more well known in the week leading up to the draft that Philadelphia (picking at 7) was targeting Michkov more heavily, so if you're Yzerman and the Wings, you'd have to trade up to 6 with Arizona to get Michkov. You're not giving up 17, but you could have easily given up 42 and 43 (essentially became Gibson and later Cleveland) to move up to 6. These things were discussed at the time, at least somewhat.

So in your mind, you believe, Yzerman could just trade 2 2nd round picks and 9 to move up to the 6th pick in the deepest draft of the decade?

I don't speak that.

Translation?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

So in your mind, you believe, Yzerman could just trade 2 2nd round picks and 9 to move up to the 6th pick in the deepest draft of the decade?

Yes, because the Coyotes could have gotten more assets by trading down and taking the same player (or at worst, taking Willander if Simashev was gone) instead of reaching by about 10 spots.

 

[Euro Twins]

Yes, because the Coyotes could have gotten more assets by trading down and taking the same player (or at worst, taking Willander if Simashev was gone) instead of reaching by about 10 spots.

Ya I bet they don't do that trade. Like at all. I wouldn't be shocked if a similar trade was offered. They don't move back without both our firsts.

I love people that live in a video game and think any trade they imagine is possible.

 

[schuelma24]

Yes, because the Coyotes could have gotten more assets by trading down and taking the same player (or at worst, taking Willander if Simashev was gone) instead of reaching by about 10 spots.

I bet you 1 million fake internet dollars they don't even entertain that deal.

I get criticizing Yzerman for stuff, but trying to relitigate the 2023 draft is wild stuff.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

we should've drafted first overall 5 years in a row and then won the stanley cup twice in a row. to not have done so was incredibly short sighted imo

 

[Euro Twins]

I bet you 1 million fake internet dollars they don't even entertain that deal.

I get criticizing Yzerman for stuff, but trying to relitigate the 2023 draft is wild stuff.

Literally no matter how good we draft people will find a way to complain. Like I said. Had we won the draft lottery and got Lafreniere everyone would have been happy. Had we used that first pick to draft stutzle or Raymond and everyone would have talked so much shit about how poorly he drafted

 

[Air Budd Dwyer]

I keep seeing “Yzerman struck out in free agency”. What makes people think top free agents even wanted to come to Detroit? Stamkos wasn't signing, what could be his last multi-year pay day, with a rebuilding team.

What really put this organization so far behind was Holland's complete inability to draft and develop any legit top pair defensemen. They drafted Kronwall in 2000. So between 2001 and 2018, the best defenseman Holland drafted was who? Quincey? Smith? Ericsson? Jensen? Kindl? Sproul (Joking)?

 

[Euro Twins]

I keep seeing “Yzerman struck out in free agency”. What makes people think top free agents even wanted to come to Detroit? Stamkos wasn't signing, what could be his last multi-year pay day, with a rebuilding team.

What really put this organization so far behind was Holland's complete inability to draft and develop any legit top pair defensemen. They drafted Kronwall in 2000. So between 2001 and 2018, the best defenseman Holland drafted was who? Quincey? Smith? Ericsson? Jensen? Kindl? Sproul (Joking)?

The worst part of the was missing out on draft chychrun and Hughes/bouchard