Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[Henkka]

Stevie basically put himself into a situation where he's gonna get fired if all of his 1st round picks aren't home runs, because he lets Draper swing at pitches waaay outside the strike zone. We can revisit this in 3 or 4 years, but you'll forget by then and be hyping the latest pick by the new GM. I actually admire how some people can continue to be optimistic through so many years of suffering.

This is still too early to tell.

It's same for all teams. Their low round picks since 2019 haven't really developed yet. Draper wasn't even drafting them at 2019.

2024 draft outside 1st round picks:
- 1 player has played 1 game at NHL, Nikita Prichepov for Colorado

2023 draft outside 1st round picks:
- 1 player has played 1 game at NHL, Gavin Brindley for Columbus

2022 draft outside 1st round picks:
- 10 players have played 1 game at NHL. 9 of them are 2nd rounders. Detroit has Buchelnikov and James on this group. Zero NHL games. Anton Johansson could be the surprise 5th rounder.

etc.

 

[DoMakc]

The whole second round discussion is somewhat bizarre. We complain about 1st rounders having difficult path to a roster place, why should low picks have it easier? Currently they have 2nd rounder from 2019 playing (and doing quite well actually) and 6th rounder having played 20+games. From each of last drafts after 2019 there is a reasonable expectation for at least one pick to be able to contribute (Wallinder, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Augustine, etc.). So what's the issue here? They didn't draft a Bergeron? Was there one?

 

[RabidBadger]

I think Draper did a good job by drafting solid two way players, but it's time to move on and start drafting for potential , not for higher floor. Let him choose guys in late rounds , hire new scouts.

We may have seen the shift to drafting for potential last year with the Plante and Becher picks. It took a long time to draft our theoretical core of "safe" players. They will have the luxury of taking some chances on guys if everyone pans out like we hope they will.

 

[GMR]

Is it safe to assume that Kienan Draper hit his ceiling?

 

[lilidk]

We may have seen the shift to drafting for potential last year with the Plante and Becher picks. It took a long time to draft our theoretical core of "safe" players. They will have the luxury of taking some chances on guys if everyone pans out like we hope they will.

Becher was extremely safe pick, he has better numbers than Danielson and double overeager . If you bet on upside you don't draft Planter, you go after Artamonov or Stiga, but they just took another center

 

[Realgud]

Is it safe to assume that Kienan Draper hit his ceiling?

What's his ceiling? AHL 4th liner?

 

[SirloinUB]

The whole second round discussion is somewhat bizarre. We complain about 1st rounders having difficult path to a roster place, why should low picks have it easier? Currently they have 2nd rounder from 2019 playing (and doing quite well actually) and 6th rounder having played 20+games. From each of last drafts after 2019 there is a reasonable expectation for at least one pick to be able to contribute (Wallinder, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Augustine, etc.). So what's the issue here? They didn't draft a Bergeron? Was there one?

2nds are a bit of a double edge sword. On one had, finding players (especially 1st or 2nd liners) in round 2 can be a game changer for an organization. On the other hand you can't really expect to hit guys in round 2.

Moreover, I'm not sure you can hold it against a GM for not finding plus players in the second round when only a quarter actually play a meaningful amount of games.

I know it was Holland's pick but Gustav Lindstrom in an interesting case study. Closing in on 200 games he is a reasonably successful 2nd rounder. When only 25% of 2nd rounders hit that threshold you have to call it a good pick. On the other hand the fact that Jason Robertson was selected with the very next pick hurts and he would have drastically altered the trajectory of this team. Is it reasonable to be upset about that when, statistically speaking, the Red Wings made a successful pick anyway?