Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[Henkka]

Stevie basically put himself into a situation where he's gonna get fired if all of his 1st round picks aren't home runs, because he lets Draper swing at pitches waaay outside the strike zone. We can revisit this in 3 or 4 years, but you'll forget by then and be hyping the latest pick by the new GM. I actually admire how some people can continue to be optimistic through so many years of suffering.

This is still too early to tell.

It's same for all teams. Their low round picks since 2019 haven't really developed yet. Draper wasn't even drafting them at 2019.

2024 draft outside 1st round picks:
- 1 player has played 1 game at NHL, Nikita Prichepov for Colorado

2023 draft outside 1st round picks:
- 1 player has played 1 game at NHL, Gavin Brindley for Columbus

2022 draft outside 1st round picks:
- 10 players have played 1 game at NHL. 9 of them are 2nd rounders. Detroit has Buchelnikov and James on this group. Zero NHL games. Anton Johansson could be the surprise 5th rounder.

etc.

 

[DoMakc]

The whole second round discussion is somewhat bizarre. We complain about 1st rounders having difficult path to a roster place, why should low picks have it easier? Currently they have 2nd rounder from 2019 playing (and doing quite well actually) and 6th rounder having played 20+games. From each of last drafts after 2019 there is a reasonable expectation for at least one pick to be able to contribute (Wallinder, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Augustine, etc.). So what's the issue here? They didn't draft a Bergeron? Was there one?

 

[RabidBadger]

I think Draper did a good job by drafting solid two way players, but it's time to move on and start drafting for potential , not for higher floor. Let him choose guys in late rounds , hire new scouts.

We may have seen the shift to drafting for potential last year with the Plante and Becher picks. It took a long time to draft our theoretical core of "safe" players. They will have the luxury of taking some chances on guys if everyone pans out like we hope they will.

 

[GMR]

Is it safe to assume that Kienan Draper hit his ceiling?

 

[lilidk]

We may have seen the shift to drafting for potential last year with the Plante and Becher picks. It took a long time to draft our theoretical core of "safe" players. They will have the luxury of taking some chances on guys if everyone pans out like we hope they will.

Becher was extremely safe pick, he has better numbers than Danielson and double overeager . If you bet on upside you don't draft Planter, you go after Artamonov or Stiga, but they just took another center

 

[Realgud]

Is it safe to assume that Kienan Draper hit his ceiling?

What's his ceiling? AHL 4th liner?

 

[SirloinUB]

The whole second round discussion is somewhat bizarre. We complain about 1st rounders having difficult path to a roster place, why should low picks have it easier? Currently they have 2nd rounder from 2019 playing (and doing quite well actually) and 6th rounder having played 20+games. From each of last drafts after 2019 there is a reasonable expectation for at least one pick to be able to contribute (Wallinder, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Augustine, etc.). So what's the issue here? They didn't draft a Bergeron? Was there one?

2nds are a bit of a double edge sword. On one had, finding players (especially 1st or 2nd liners) in round 2 can be a game changer for an organization. On the other hand you can't really expect to hit guys in round 2.

Moreover, I'm not sure you can hold it against a GM for not finding plus players in the second round when only 1/5 actually play a meaningful amount of games.

I know it was Holland's pick but Gustav Lindstrom in an interesting case study. Closing in on 200 games he is a reasonably successful 2nd rounder. When only 20% of 2nd rounders hit that threshold you have to call it a good pick. On the other hand the fact that Jason Robertson was selected with the very next pick hurts and he would have drastically altered the trajectory of this team. Is it reasonable to be upset about that when, statistically speaking, the Red Wings made a successful pick anyway?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I was talking about forwards, but your definition of offensively "gifted" is really suspect when you add Tank and Gus. Burger hasn't done shit in the NHL, and Sprong is good at creating offense by himself but has no idea how to utilize his linemates.

If your definition of "offensively gifted" has the bar at Patrick Kane (#1 pick and the greatest american born player of all time) you really need to clarify which offensively gifted players you think we've been missing outside the 1st round recently.

I would be, except I liked the Gibson pick.

Andrew Gibson has 4 points in 15 games in the OHL. He's having a brutal season. Highlighting him as someone you like goes completely against your overall argument about talent we've potentially missed out on, only proving that you will complain about everything.

Stevie basically put himself into a situation where he's gonna get fired if all of his 1st round picks aren't home runs, because he lets Draper swing at pitches waaay outside the strike zone.

Kind of like Jim Nill should have gotten fired because 2014 was a massive failure, 2015 took 5-6 years to produce a good NHLer, and 2016 was a failure too? No?
Give me a break. Yzerman as of yet does not have a single draft that can be categorized as a failure. Zero teams live up to your insane expectations.

 

[Frk It]

The whole second round discussion is somewhat bizarre. We complain about 1st rounders having difficult path to a roster place, why should low picks have it easier? Currently they have 2nd rounder from 2019 playing (and doing quite well actually) and 6th rounder having played 20+games. From each of last drafts after 2019 there is a reasonable expectation for at least one pick to be able to contribute (Wallinder, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Augustine, etc.). So what's the issue here? They didn't draft a Bergeron? Was there one?

We have had 23 top 100 draft picks since 2020. I would hope we have something to show for it.

For me it comes down to an issue with philosophy/strategy. When you have the amount of picks we have had, why draft someone like Brady Cleveland in round 2? Or why not take some bigger swings in round 1?

I think we have a good prospect pool. Do I think we left a lot of meat on the bone with the picks we have had? Also yes.

 

[DoMakc]

We have had 23 top 100 draft picks since 2020. I would hope we have something to show for it.

For me it comes down to an issue with philosophy/strategy. When you have the amount of picks we have had, why draft someone like Brady Cleveland in round 2? Or why not take some bigger swings in round 1?

I think we have a good prospect pool. Do I think we left a lot of meat on the bone with the picks we have had? Also yes.

The fact that you didn't like the picks does not change a thing. Even if Yzerman picked huge amount of Junior scoring sensations, they still would not have a chance to crack the roster.

 

[DamonDRW]

The fact that you didn't like the picks does not change a thing. Even if Yzerman picked huge amount of Junior scoring sensations, they still would not have a chance to crack the roster.

the actual problem is that he didn't pick junior scoring sensations but this board somehow expects so-so juniors to become scoring threats in the NHL.

 

[TKB]

If your definition of "offensively gifted" has the bar at Patrick Kane (#1 pick and the greatest american born player of all time) you really need to clarify which offensively gifted players you think we've been missing outside the 1st round recently.


Andrew Gibson has 4 points in 15 games in the OHL. He's having a brutal season. Highlighting him as someone you like goes completely against your overall argument about talent we've potentially missed out on, only proving that you will complain about everything.


Kind of like Jim Nill should have gotten fired because 2014 was a massive failure, 2015 took 5-6 years to produce a good NHLer, and 2016 was a failure too? No?
Give me a break. Yzerman as of yet does not have a single draft that can be categorized as a failure. Zero teams live up to your insane expectations.

Speaking of Nill and the Stars, I was recently looking at articles on how various teams were built and came across this. Given that Nill and SFY grew up in the same organization, it is worth the read:

The architect: How Jim Nill has cultivated a new era of Stars hockey | Dallas Stars

As the GM embarks upon his 12th season in Dallas, it’s a good time to look back at all that he’s accomplished and set into motion during his time at the helm

www.nhl.com

“I think the biggest thing is just having patience,” Nill said. “I say that I have a lot of patience but I also like to get things done quick and check the boxes. But I’ve learned that it doesn’t work that way in this business. The other thing is being flexible. I consider myself very organized and I’ve got an organized staff around me. It’s amazing how many times you go into Plan A and you think it’s the plan but end up in Plan F. You have to be flexible that way because things happen.”

 

[Gniwder]

If your definition of "offensively gifted" has the bar at Patrick Kane (#1 pick and the greatest american born player of all time) you really need to clarify which offensively gifted players you think we've been missing outside the 1st round recently.


Andrew Gibson has 4 points in 15 games in the OHL. He's having a brutal season. Highlighting him as someone you like goes completely against your overall argument about talent we've potentially missed out on, only proving that you will complain about everything.


Kind of like Jim Nill should have gotten fired because 2014 was a massive failure, 2015 took 5-6 years to produce a good NHLer, and 2016 was a failure too? No?
Give me a break. Yzerman as of yet does not have a single draft that can be categorized as a failure. Zero teams live up to your insane expectations.

Really interesting how you judge a prospect Gibson by his 15 games this season while judging Gus and Tank based on past history. Gibson is 19, while Gus and Tank are past their prime. Gus and Tank have shown no offensive talent since joining the Wings, what they did 5 years ago is irrelevant at this point. Plus Gibson's stats reflect the Greyhounds' struggle to score, they lack top end talent and got hit with a bunch of injuries in October.

I agree Nill had some shitty drafts, but at the same time he managed to get into the playoffs his second year which is what saved his butt. Had the team missed the playoffs 4 years in a row, he definitely would have been in the hot seat. Just read articles from 2018, here's one:

GM Jim Nill’s Seat is Getting Warm

“They aren’t happy at all.” That was Jim Nill during a recent Q&A with Sean Shapiro, as he referred to Tom Gaglardi and Dallas ownership. It’s the fifth year in Jim Nill’s tenure, and the excuses are…

www.defendingbigd.com

Then it was his 2017 draft along with the emergence of Hintz that saved his butt. Ironic that you mention him since Hintz, Robertson, and Stankoven are all second round picks. Not to mention Stevie could have picked up Duchene instead of Compher.

Stevie could silence all of the naysayers with a couple of second round home runs, especially a 1 P/G forward like Robertson. So far that hasn't happened, and if Buch/Becher/Plante or some other kid doesn't hit then Stevie will be in the hot seat in 2 or 3 years. Watch....

“I think the biggest thing is just having patience,” Nill said. “I say that I have a lot of patience but I also like to get things done quick and check the boxes. But I’ve learned that it doesn’t work that way in this business. The other thing is being flexible. I consider myself very organized and I’ve got an organized staff around me. It’s amazing how many times you go into Plan A and you think it’s the plan but end up in Plan F. You have to be flexible that way because things happen.”

List of Dallas Stars head coaches - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

LOL.

 

[TKB]

Really interesting how you judge a prospect Gibson by his 15 games this season while judging Gus and Tank based on past history. Gibson is 19, while Gus and Tank are past their prime. Gus and Tank have shown no offensive talent since joining the Wings, what they did 5 years ago is irrelevant at this point. Plus Gibson's stats reflect the Greyhounds' struggle to score, they lack top end talent and got hit with a bunch of injuries in October.

I agree Nill had some shitty drafts, but at the same time he managed to get into the playoffs his second year which is what saved his butt. Had the team missed the playoffs 4 years in a row, he definitely would have been in the hot seat. Just read articles from 2018, here's one:

GM Jim Nill’s Seat is Getting Warm

“They aren’t happy at all.” That was Jim Nill during a recent Q&A with Sean Shapiro, as he referred to Tom Gaglardi and Dallas ownership. It’s the fifth year in Jim Nill’s tenure, and the excuses are…

www.defendingbigd.com

Then it was his 2017 draft along with the emergence of Hintz that saved his butt. Ironic that you mention him since Hintz, Robertson, and Stankoven are all second round picks. Not to mention Stevie could have picked up Duchene instead of Compher.

Stevie could silence all of the naysayers with a couple of second round home runs, especially a 1 P/G forward like Robertson. So far that hasn't happened, and if Buch/Becher/Plante or some other kid doesn't hit then Stevie will be in the hot seat in 2 or 3 years. Watch....

List of Dallas Stars head coaches - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

LOL.

JFC dude, just thought it was interesting article. Make of it what you want. Or don't.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

I mean, if there's one thing we know here on these boards: we are reasonable, level-headed, and patient.

So no problem here, Nill. We got this

 

[Oddbob]

The whole second round discussion is somewhat bizarre. We complain about 1st rounders having difficult path to a roster place, why should low picks have it easier? Currently they have 2nd rounder from 2019 playing (and doing quite well actually) and 6th rounder having played 20+games. From each of last drafts after 2019 there is a reasonable expectation for at least one pick to be able to contribute (Wallinder, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Augustine, etc.). So what's the issue here? They didn't draft a Bergeron? Was there one?

It isn't about it being easier. But for any successful rebuild you need some outside 1st rounders to hit. Not all 1sts are going to make it, and if you get no outside first round good players you are basically screwed from being good.

 

[Frk It]

The fact that you didn't like the picks does not change a thing. Even if Yzerman picked huge amount of Junior scoring sensations, they still would not have a chance to crack the roster.

If you are talking about the totally arbitrary thresholds other people are talking about as far as not having more games played from picks in rounds 2-7 since Year X, then yeah. I'm with you there. I don't think that's an indictment of anything.

If you want to tell me not taking more risks on upside with the draft capital we have had is not a pretty significant factor in the re-build happening or not, I would disagree.

 

[norrisnick]

If you are talking about the totally arbitrary thresholds other people are talking about as far as not having more games played from picks in rounds 2-7 since Year X, then yeah. I'm with you there. I don't think that's an indictment of anything.

If you want to tell me not taking more risks on upside with the draft capital we have had is not a pretty significant factor in the re-build happening or not, I would disagree.

I mean, it was tried. Buch, the DN bros, Mastrosimone, Lombardi, Kilpinen, etc... None of those would qualify as safe classic Yzerman picks. They were picked on offensive pop potential. They haven't yet popped...

 

[SirloinUB]

We have had 23 top 100 draft picks since 2020. I would hope we have something to show for it.

I mean, we do have a highly regarded prospect system. Does that count for anything?

 

[Frk It]

I mean, we do have a highly regarded prospect system. Does that count for anything?

I'll just repeat my last sentence you left out for some reason.

I think we have a good prospect pool. Do I think we left a lot of meat on the bone with the picks we have had? Also yes.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Then it was his 2017 draft along with the emergence of Hintz that saved his butt. Ironic that you mention him since Hintz, Robertson, and Stankoven are all second round picks. Not to mention Stevie could have picked up Duchene instead of Compher.

Stevie could silence all of the naysayers with a couple of second round home runs, especially a 1 P/G forward like Robertson. So far that hasn't happened, and if Buch/Becher/Plante or some other kid doesn't hit then Stevie will be in the hot seat in 2 or 3 years. Watch....

The point was that it took a lot of time for them to arrive and they had lots of failed picks. And again, hitting on guys like Hintz and Robertson, while EXCELLENT, wouldn't have been all that necessary for them if they hadn't drafted Honka over Larkin and Gurianov over Barzal/Connor. If Yzerman keeps hitting on 1st rounders his later picks could all end up playing for Kunlun Red Star and his seat will still be cold as ice.

For me it comes down to an issue with philosophy/strategy. When you have the amount of picks we have had, why draft someone like Brady Cleveland in round 2? Or why not take some bigger swings in round 1?

I'd argue when you have a lot of picks that exactly when you can gamble on a pick like Cleveland.
Also not sure why our 1st rounders aren't viewed as big swings. They aren't all, but Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson and Cossa at least I'd absolutely view as major upside swings.

 

[Frk It]

I'd argue when you have a lot of picks that exactly when you can gamble on a pick like Cleveland.
Also not sure why our 1st rounders aren't viewed as big swings. They aren't all, but Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson and Cossa at least I'd absolutely view as major upside swings.

That’s fair, and you can add ASP to the list. The first round drafting has been good, for sure. I would list it as a pro/positive for Yzerman so far.

Drafting in rounds 2-7 is hard and a lot of the higher upside guys we like don’t make it either. I just would have liked to see some more boldness in that area. I’m looking at teams like Carolina or Montreal, and they seem to be a bit bolder than us.

 

[Gniwder]

The point was that it took a lot of time for them to arrive and they had lots of failed picks. And again, hitting on guys like Hintz and Robertson, while EXCELLENT, wouldn't have been all that necessary for them if they hadn't drafted Honka over Larkin and Gurianov over Barzal/Connor. If Yzerman keeps hitting on 1st rounders his later picks could all end up playing for Kunlun Red Star and his seat will still be cold as ice.

If all Stevie does is hit on only his first rounders this team is stuck in mediocreville until Larkin drops off, then we're looking at tanking for a 1C. Let's do a projected roster with the first rounders:

(DBC) - Larkin - Ray
'25 pick - Danielson - MBN
? - Kasper -?
(Mazur) - ? - ?

Ed - Mo
'26 pick - ASP
(AlJo) - ?

Cossa
(Gus)

Looks like a bubble team to me even with 4 players not acquired in the first round. Also explains why I keep saying Danielson has to be a homerun for this team to make the playoffs.

 

[Henkka]

If all Stevie does is hit on only his first rounders this team is stuck in mediocreville until Larkin drops off, then we're looking at tanking for a 1C. Let's do a projected roster with the first rounders:

Colorado is also a team which did only hit with their 1st round picks.

All low round picks failed.

They did win 2022 Stanley Cup.

 

[The Zermanator]

That’s fair, and you can add ASP to the list. The first round drafting has been good, for sure. I would list it as a pro/positive for Yzerman so far.

Drafting in rounds 2-7 is hard and a lot of the higher upside guys we like don’t make it either. I just would have liked to see some more boldness in that area. I’m looking at teams like Carolina or Montreal, and they seem to be a bit bolder than us.

Have those teams had results that suggest that is a better strategy?