I enjoyed your post but this part had me confused (which isn't hard to do)
Are you saying that you think 14 of the players drafted from 2019 to 2024 will make the NHL?
Yeah I guess. That is what I'm hoping for and which is not unrealistic, but lets say a little bit of a stretch within reason.
To me it looks like the management is hoping and working for that on average 2 guys makes the team from each draft.
Meaning:
2019: Moritz Seider and from what it looks like now Albert Johansson.
Would be below if Johansson don't stick long term as a bottom four defenseman
But basically could end up with two of the 7 defenseman on the team coming from 2019-draft.
2020: Lucas Raymond
Here they are currently below unless William Wallinder makes the team in the future.
One top six forward and potential bottom four defenseman from the 2020-draft.
2021: Simon Edvinsson and from what it looks like four other possible realistic options.
It will be below two per year if none make it outside of Edvinsson, but it could also be that three guys make it from this draft class. There are more options from 2021-class that have a shot than the other years as how it stands right now, meaning Edvinsson and two of Sebastian Cossa (G), Carter Mazur (W), Red Savage (F), Shai Buium (D)
Currently I think Cossa and Mazur will make it. Wouldn't be shocked if Buium makes it, but need to elevate his game enough to do so and not just on par with what is already there. The challenge is d-men need time and opportunity and question will either of those be on Buium's side with Detroit.
So, realistic outcome is total is top four defenseman, starting goalie and bottom six winger with upside. With potential of bottom four defenseman.
2022: Marco Kasper
Currently below average, but early on in the process. By all accounts if they wanted to, Marco Kasper would be on the team from the start of the season this year in a limited role, they think he is better of playing top line minutes in AHL. I'm confident he will be on the team in the future, might happen later in the season already, but more likely regular from next season. Dmitri Buchelnikov looks to be the other candidate that has the best chance if he could adapt to North America. The other being Dylan James if he can add weight and keep progressing. He is that typical player Yzerman drafted in Tampa as well, but need to make progress to get there.
Realistic outcome, Marco Kasper as a middle six Center, with optional one or two middle six wingers added to the mix.
2023: Nate Danielson, Axel Sandin-Pellikka
From the looks of it it seems that Nate Danielson is more than not lined up up to get into a 2C position in the future. He is seen as a reliable center type, not to say he will be a perennial Selke-candidate like Patrice Bergeron, but he trends to be somewhat of that type of center. He could even make it up as a 1C like Bergeron, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, but realistically if he ends up as 2C doing heavy loads its a great pick. If 1C he is a fantastic pick.
Sandin-Pellikka if being able to adjust to NA-game also trends into that offensive defenseman type which can quarter back a power play. There is also some potential in no offense, but all defense Brady Cleveland.
From this draft, its realistic to get a top six center in Danielson and a QB offensive defenseman in ASP. With the potential of adding a starting goalie in Trey Augustine. Meaning it could be 3. Realistic is maybe 2. Could be as many as 4 if Cleveland lands a clean-up role as bottom pair d-man.
2024: Michael Brandsegg-Nygaard
Currently for most its too early to tell the projection of in this draft class. What is known is MBN got NHL ready body and a lot to his game that makes in a middle six winger. Can he get polished into a top six winger waits to be seen.
There is other guys like Plante and Becher with potential, difficult to say how realistic their chances are for me.
From this draft, middle six winger in MBN, so only 1 for now.
Meaning:
Could end up with two of the 7 defenseman on the team coming from 2019-draft.
One top six forward and potential bottom four defenseman from the 2020-draft.
Realistic outcome is total is top four defenseman, starting goalie and bottom six winger with upside. With potential of bottom four defenseman. from 2021-draft.
Marco Kasper as a middle six Center, with optional one or two middle six wingers added to the mix from 2022-draft.
Realistic to get a top six center in Danielson and a QB offensive defenseman in ASP. With the potential of adding a starting goalie in Trey Augustine. Meaning it could be 3. Realistic is maybe 2. Could be as many as 4 if Cleveland lands a clean-up role as bottom pair d-man. From 2023-draft
From this draft, middle six winger in MBN, so only 1 for now from 2024-draft.
? - ? - L. Raymond
(D. Buchelnikov) - N. Danielson - M. Brandsegg Nygaard
(C. Mazur / D. James) - M. Kasper - ?
? - (R. Savage) - ?
M. Seider -
S. Edvinsson - A. Sandin-Pellikka
A. Johansson - (S. Buium)
(B. Cleveland) - (W. Wallinder)
With anyone besides Cleveland potentially could be Seider's partner in a defensive capacity
(S. Cossa)
(T. Augustine)
So to the question, I think 8 guys for sure will stick with the team. I hope one of the goalies will, making it 9. If both manage will be 10. If one of Buchelnikov/Mazur/James makes it, then 11. If any of Buium, Cleveland or Wallinder makes it it will be 12 which I think is Detroit's aim and not unrealistic to think a 1st round + one other guy making it from each draft.
Then I hope two more guys can make it to make it 14.