When did you know it was over for this group?

[Judas Tavares]

If you cheered for a team and they were intentionally scoring on their own net and over and over again, at that point is it ok to boo? To focus on the problems, and not the positives? Or would only a "bad fan" act like that? There's a line somewhere, right?

The thing is, you've decided you don't like who is in charge, and you've created your own opinionated line and compared moves/decisions/play to intentionally trying to lose.

cheering on something that is an abhorrent disgrace.

Why do you still invest yourself? Maybe a different hobby would be better.

We've been right. Over and over again. And I think that's what frustrates the eternal optimists the most. We're always right.

Ahh, now we know why. Cheers.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We'll agree to disagree about history being important to learn from. I think it's extremely important.

History is important to learn from. Taking exclusively the end outcomes of past playoff series with no other information or context doesn't tell you much though.

How the past 10 cup winners did the previous season before winning:

Didn't make playoffs: 1
Lost in 1st round: 3
Lost in 2nd round: 2
Lost in 3rd round: 2
Lost in Finals: 0
Won Cup: 2

Winning past series is often a good sign, because it can correlate with team quality, but it's not the be-all end-all people make it out to be, or the only way to recognize team quality and potential to win. How and why we specifically have been losing our series aren't really things to be overly concerned about moving forward.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We'll agree to disagree about history being important to learn from. I think it's extremely important.
And if the team has the same core, same basic structure . . . hard to ignore history potentially repeating itself. While not a certainty, without significant additions to this team before the TD that will fill our deficiencies . . . I think history repeats itself.

I still cheer for the team, watch the great hockey, I enjoy it, I do.
But the way I have thought about this team since the epic failure against an inferior Montreal team . . . I'm extremely jaded about their future, and waiting for real change and an actual playoff round win or two.

I didn't say anything about learning or not learning from history, what I said was that the past does not dictate the future.

We already made significant additions, Murray and Samsonov are far more important than any additions we might make at the TDL and IMHO, this team can win it all the way it is now.

If you think history will repeat itself, I have no problem with that. It's the people who think that because we lost in previous years, we are certain to lose again who aren't thinking rationally.

 

[WillyC]

It’s hilarious to see the doomsday posters doubling down… we know it’s over for this group.

We know… don’t come at us with this 2nd overall in the NHL crap…. 9-0-1 means nothing.

It’s over.

 

[Zacman]

They are once again one of the best shinny teams in the league when there is time and space.

Honest question why are you here? Why post something like this?

Objectively they have been a top defensive team, playing winning hockey in a style that works in the playoffs.

I just don't get the doomer posting, are you just trying to get conversation started?

It’s hilarious to see the doomsday posters doubling down… we know it’s over for this group.

We know… don’t come at us with this 2nd overall in the NHL crap…. 9-0-1 means nothing.

It’s over.

I legitimately don't understand doomers, is it a mindset in their whole life?

Being objective and pointing out issues is one thing but this team finally looks like it's ready to contend and instead of seeing that, they seem garbage?

 

[slozo]

History is important to learn from. Taking exclusively the end outcomes of past playoff series with no other information or context doesn't tell you much though.

How the past 10 cup winners did the previous season before winning:

Didn't make playoffs: 1
Lost in 1st round: 3
Lost in 2nd round: 2
Lost in 3rd round: 2
Lost in Finals: 0
Won Cup: 2

Winning past series is often a good sign, because it can correlate with team quality, but it's not the be-all end-all people make it out to be, or the only way to recognize team quality and potential to win. How and why we specifically have been losing our series aren't really things to be overly concerned about moving forward.

How many lost the past three 1st round series while being the favourite, all with the same core?

 

[Jojalu]

How many lost the past three 1st round series while being the favourite, all with the same core?

Not sure thwy were favoired against Tampa.

In fact most people thought they had no shot at all.

Do you think if they had beat Mon and Tampa they would have had back to back final appearances? Because Mon and TB went on the finals.

Price and Vasi were simply better. The Mon series was an awful experience, and now skews people from the fact that Tampa is a world class team that the Leafs played tooth and nail with.

 

[slozo]

I didn't say anything about learning or not learning from history, what I said was that the past does not dictate the future.

We already made significant additions, Murray and Samsonov are far more important than any additions we might make at the TDL and IMHO, this team can win it all the way it is now.

If you think history will repeat itself, I have no problem with that. It's the people who think that because we lost in previous years, we are certain to lose again who aren't thinking rationally.

I honestly think "you're camp" isn't thinking rationally, but we'll agree to disagree.

You said:
"2nd bolded - going by history makes no sense. The past does not dictate the future and the team is different every year from the year previous."

The only way "going by history makes no sense" is correct if it's a totally different group, different coach, different system, etc. Which is clearly not the case. Same core, same deficiencies for the playoffs, same hopeful goaltending, this time a tandem (hey it's currently working out great - hope it works out better than it did last year when Campbell was a Vezina leader).

The second part of your statement also clearly false, demonstrably so.
The past USUALLY dictates the future, especially when the players and coach are the same.
The team is not very different from last year.

Again - hope springs eternal and that's great as a fan . . . and I am filled with that same HOPE.

But pragmatically, I don't see anything different happening.

Not sure thwy were favoired against Tampa.

In fact most people thought they had no shot at all.

Do you think if they had beat Mon and Tampa they would have had back to back final appearances? Because Mon and TB went on the finals.

Price and Vasi were simply better. The Mon series was an awful experience, and now skews people from the fact that Tampa is a world class team that the Leafs played tooth and nail with.

Well if you're not sure, go look it up.
We were home team, odds were for us.

Excuses excuses. Which isn't the pro sports attitude ANY winning organisation has, or should have.

 

[Jojalu]

I honestly think "you're camp" isn't thinking rationally, but we'll agree to disagree.

You said:
"2nd bolded - going by history makes no sense. The past does not dictate the future and the team is different every year from the year previous."

The only way "going by history makes no sense" is correct if it's a totally different group, different coach, different system, etc. Which is clearly not the case. Same core, same deficiencies for the playoffs, same hopeful goaltending, this time a tandem (hey it's currently working out great - hope it works out better than it did last year when Campbell was a Vezina leader).

The second part of your statement also clearly false, demonstrably so.
The past USUALLY dictates the future, especially when the players and coach are the same.
The team is not very different from last year.

Again - hope springs eternal and that's great as a fan . . . and I am filled with that same HOPE.

But pragmatically, I don't see anything different happening.


Well if you're not sure, go look it up.
We were home team, odds were for us.

Excuses excuses. Which isn't the pro sports attitude ANY winning organisation has, or should have.

There is 100% a difference between an excuse and a reason. The job entails figuring out what the reason is you lost and figure out how to rectify it.

That we will not know until April. I don't blame anyone for being skeptical. I would wager every fan has the fear of another 1st round loss swimming in the bavk of their head.

You would also have to be willfully blind not to see a difference in their style of play and commitment to what is described as winning hockey.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It’s hilarious to see the doomsday posters doubling down… we know it’s over for this group.

We know… don’t come at us with this 2nd overall in the NHL crap…. 9-0-1 means nothing.

It’s over.

Like.

I know, right? I read this and laughed out loud, it's just so ridiculous. The fact that people can post nonsense like this with a straight face, it's just hilarious, not much else to say.

I honestly think "you're camp" isn't thinking rationally, but we'll agree to disagree.

You said:
"2nd bolded - going by history makes no sense. The past does not dictate the future and the team is different every year from the year previous."

The only way "going by history makes no sense" is correct if it's a totally different group, different coach, different system, etc. Which is clearly not the case. Same core, same deficiencies for the playoffs, same hopeful goaltending, this time a tandem (hey it's currently working out great - hope it works out better than it did last year when Campbell was a Vezina leader).

The second part of your statement also clearly false, demonstrably so.
The past USUALLY dictates the future, especially when the players and coach are the same.
The team is not very different from last year.

Again - hope springs eternal and that's great as a fan . . . and I am filled with that same HOPE.

But pragmatically, I don't see anything different happening.


Well if you're not sure, go look it up.
We were home team, odds were for us.

Excuses excuses. Which isn't the pro sports attitude ANY winning organisation has, or should have.

We almost beat the powerhouse TB team as it is, thinking we need a "totally different group" to beat them if we were to play them again makes no sense at all. The fact is that if that series were to be played over, it would likely be close again and we could easily win. Thinking we need to make changes to beat them, that's a legit opinion and may or may not be the case. Stating it as if it was a fact, that's not rational, period. The past never dictates the future so you're 100% wrong.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How many lost the past three 1st round series while being the favourite, all with the same core?

That's not really telling the whole story.

Columbus had the same number of points as us despite considerable injury impacts and we played in an abnormal 5-game series in a crowd-less bubble in the middle of August.
Tampa had 110 points despite missing their best player for half the year and were the back-to-back Cup champs.
We were favourites against Montreal, but both teams were also much different teams in the playoffs relative to the regular season. Montreal went from sub-0.900 to Vezina-quality goaltending, and the Leafs were without Tavares, and later Muzzin, and had Matthews with a surgery-requiring wrist injury. Those things have an impact on the gap between the teams.

The only team to beat every single one of those teams was the Cup champs - two times in the Cup final. You can't argue that playoff outcomes are all that matter and then dismiss cup finalists because they got whatever points in the regular season. We stretched every series to the limit, outplayed the opponent in all of them, and outscored the opponent in 2 of the 3. We unfortunately faced 3 of the best playoff goaltenders of the past 3 years, and have received some bad luck and goaltending in critical moments, which has left people drawing ridiculously incorrect conclusions about our performance and potential to win moving forward.

What exactly is the "core"? We didn't have Tavares for one of them. Matthews was playing injured for one of them. We didn't have Muzzin for two of them. We may not have Muzzin going forward either, but are Sandin and Liljegren working their way into our core group? We also had different goaltending for all of them, which is pretty notable considering their impact on the end outcome. And considering that the core hasn't really been the issue, and the tiny margins we've lost by, I'm not sure why you'd dismiss the impact of changes to the complimentary group.

Treating the core as this unchanging factor also ignores how core players can evolve, learn, grow, etc.

 

[WillyC]

Not sure thwy were favoired against Tampa.

In fact most people thought they had no shot at all.

Do you think if they had beat Mon and Tampa they would have had back to back final appearances? Because Mon and TB went on the finals.

Price and Vasi were simply better. The Mon series was an awful experience, and now skews people from the fact that Tampa is a world class team that the Leafs played tooth and nail with.

Yeah, the Leafs were favoured against TB… and they were particularly favoured after smashing them 5-0 in game one.

 

[TheDoldrums]

At this point it's just poor asset management to not extend Dubas before the offseason. It's not like any coach/GM contract should prevent a firing if necessary, letting Kyle get this close to free agency seems unnecessarily risky.

Make no mistake the interest in him leaguewide would be massive. In the macro sense our organization is doing extremely well. Players want to come here at all levels (ECHL, AHL, NHL), I think Dubas has largely done good things and I'm not letting him go because we keep losing close Game 7's.

 

[HockeyVirus]

At this point it's just poor asset management to not extend Dubas before the offseason. It's not like any coach/GM contract should prevent a firing if necessary, letting Kyle get this close to free agency seems unnecessarily risky.

Make no mistake the interest in him leaguewide would be massive. In the macro sense our organization is doing extremely well. Players want to come here at all levels (ECHL, AHL, NHL), I think Dubas has largely done good things and I'm not letting him go because we keep losing close Game 7's.

Agreed. Losing Dubas would be seen as such a gaf and people won't remember he was hated, they will just remember he was the best GM the team has had in decades and we let him go on to win a cup elsewhere.

Dubas should be extended at least a year because we need him to get Matthews signed. They have a good relationship and he is also close with Marner.

Worst case we are out in round 1, I give him the option to move a core piece or be fired and they eat a 2 year extension let's say after he signs Matthews of course.

 

[GoonieFace]

There is 100% a difference between an excuse and a reason. The job entails figuring out what the reason is you lost and figure out how to rectify it.

That we will not know until April. I don't blame anyone for being skeptical. I would wager every fan has the fear of another 1st round loss swimming in the bavk of their head.

You would also have to be willfully blind not to see a difference in their style of play and commitment to what is described as winning hockey.

This is well said. I had enough after their series against Montreal, only to be disappointed again last year. I think they look like a different team right now, more committed for sure in all areas of the ice.

Just love the posters now pounding their chests again in December. Last time I checked this team still hasn’t won 1 playoff round.

If I’m impatient after 6 years of playoff failure, so be it, but the fans that can see no wrong ever, you need to chill as well.

 

[ToneDog]

Agreed. Losing Dubas would be seen as such a gaf and people won't remember he was hated, they will just remember he was the best GM the team has had in decades and we let him go on to win a cup elsewhere.

Dubas should be extended at least a year because we need him to get Matthews signed. They have a good relationship and he is also close with Marner.

Worst case we are out in round 1, I give him the option to move a core piece or be fired and they eat a 2 year extension let's say after he signs Matthews of course.

Dubas should have been extended at the end of last season. Too late now. It is Win a round or you are fired IMO.

 

[Menzinger]

Leaf fans in this thread at the beginning of the season: "This team is good at regular season pond hockey but buckles in the playoffs in humiliating fashion year after year after year after year. They take moral victories in things like (lol) applauding how they shake hands with the team that defeats them. Clearly something is wrong. When did you know it was done with this core?"

The key point is the team is great at pond hockey regular season, and sucks in the playoffs. 0-9 in series-clinching games. An almost impossible statistic.

And now we have "different" leaf fans coming in here saying "But hey, we're good at regular season pond hockey again. LOL!!!! SICK BURN!!!"

Like, what is happening?

That's not quite what happens here though. You have many of those same critics of the team on one hand try and claim that the regular season results are meaningless when the team does well, but are also often the first to chest thump when the team struggles during the season as proof of their criticisms... ...

Everyone is free to make their own opinions, but if one tries to argue the team is bad, you've got to take it on the chin when the team is doing well

 

[Maple Leaf]

Well i dont see the round 2 schedule

 

[Mess]

Really? You seemed pretty wrapped up in early season games. I wonder what changed?

Nothing has changed if you're implying its Leafs winning that has changed.

Last year at Game #30 the Leafs were 20-8-2 for 42 points & this year they're sitting at 19-5-6 for 44 points. Last year this time they had lost 10 games and this year its 11.

When you're a diehard long-term suffering fan then the longer the Cup drought the more losing in the playoffs hurts, and for some of us unlike yourself "respect in the handshake line" is no longer cutting it.

I believe Leafs Salary Cap spending is flawed in that 4 forwards take up 1/2 the Leafs Cap and you can't build a PLAYOFF CUP contending team with 3 of the 7 highest cap forwards on the same team.

During the regular season Leafs are getting between 65-70% of their total goals from those 4 core forwards and very little from the surrounding cast and defense. So just like every other year Leafs top heavy cap spending will be tested come playoff time. No use sweating the small things in the regular season as long as the team makes the playoffs and after a shaky start the team seems to cruising along.

Leafs being the ONLY team since the Salary Cap was instituted (non recent expansion Seattle excluded) to win a playoff series due to poor spending and once again only the playoff results are going to confirm or deny that once again.

Leafs simply can't prove they can WIN in the PLAYOFFS during the regular season, So it really doesn't matter what happens in the 82 games that all teams play.

 

[kb]

I knew it was over when they took over second place in the NHL in GAA with their top-2 D out.

Imagine being so butthurt at all your fails (ie - previous post) that you can't even enjoy this?

 

[Americanadian]

At this point it's just poor asset management to not extend Dubas before the offseason. It's not like any coach/GM contract should prevent a firing if necessary, letting Kyle get this close to free agency seems unnecessarily risky.

Make no mistake the interest in him leaguewide would be massive. In the macro sense our organization is doing extremely well. Players want to come here at all levels (ECHL, AHL, NHL), I think Dubas has largely done good things and I'm not letting him go because we keep losing close Game 7's.

He isn’t a player. There is no CBA for front office positions. He can take offers for other positions right now if he wants. It makes no difference if they sign him now or after the season. If the ownership team decides to extend him they should know that they are the favorites to get him. They are his “hometown” team and the highest profile team in the league. They can also offer the most money.

There should be no rush to extend him right now.

 

[TheDoldrums]

He isn’t a player. There is no CBA for front office positions. He can take offers for other positions right now if he wants. It makes no difference if they sign him now or after the season. If the ownership team decides to extend him they should know that they are the favorites to get him. They are his “hometown” team and the highest profile team in the league. They can also offer the most money.

There should be no rush to extend him right now.

Contracts still matter for executives. Dubas cannot take a job with another organization while still under contract with the Leafs. He can't interview without permission either.

Everything you're saying about hometown team and money could be insignificant in his mind, we don't know what he's thinking. Perhaps the lack of commitment from the team gives him a wandering eye. Having a GM of a good team play out his contract like this is incredibly, incredibly rare in the NHL. As I said, it's just bad asset management to let it go this far if they want to keep him. Replace the "hometown" part with "team that drafted him" and everything you said applies to Matthews too. But it would be stupid to let Matthews get to free agency before re-signing him, even if you think they're the favourites.

 

[Americanadian]

Contracts still matter for executives. Dubas cannot take a job with another organization while still under contract with the Leafs. He can't interview without permission either.

Everything you're saying about hometown team and money could be insignificant in his mind, we don't know what he's thinking. Perhaps the lack of commitment from the team gives him a wandering eye. Having a GM of a good team play out his contract like this is incredibly, incredibly rare in the NHL. As I said, it's just bad asset management to let it go this far if they want to keep him.

Lou Lamoriello did the same thing in the same market when he turned the Leafs from lottery winners to franchise best points in 3 years.

If Dubas is offered a contract and elects to leave despite the Leafs presumably offering the same money it will say more about him being unwilling to finish the job than it will about the Leafs letting him go.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Lou Lamoriello did the same thing in the same market when he turned the Leafs from lottery winners to franchise best points in 3 years.

If Dubas is offered a contract and elects to leave despite the Leafs presumably offering the same money it will say more about him being unwilling to finish the job than it will about the Leafs letting him go.

I don't think MLSE ever intended to extend Lou though, I think he was brought in to mentor Dubas/Hunter for a few years and one of them was always going to be the long-term choice once Lou's deal ran out. This situation definitely feels different.

 

[Americanadian]

Replace the "hometown" part with "team that drafted him" and everything you said applies to Matthews too. But it would be stupid to let Matthews get to free agency before re-signing him, even if you think they're the favourites.

I see you edited your post and added this part. The difference is Matthews can ultimately go home or go anywhere else for more money. Unlike the players on the ice, the Leafs can offer Dubas more money than any other team without ruining their competitiveness like they would if they gave Matthews a max contract. Home for Dubas is Ontario. Again - if he’s offered a contract from the Leafs and he leaves for less he’s just quitting before finishing the job.

I don't think MLSE ever intended to extend Lou though, I think he was brought in to mentor Dubas/Hunter for a few years and one of them was always going to be the long-term choice once Lou's deal ran out. This situation definitely feels different.

You said it’s never happened, I pointed out a time when it happened in the same market immediately before Dubas arrived and now you say it feels different.

I think it feels the exact same. There was a lot of “will they extend him or let him go” chatter when Lou was in his final season. That same chatter is rightfully happening now.

If I told you in the summer of 2018 the Leafs haven’t won a playoff round 4 years later but they had one season where they put up 115 points would you call that a success?