When did you know it was over for this group?

[GoonieFace]

Put your money where your mouth is goonie face

I’m not putting anything near this mouth

 

[Jojalu]

View attachment 621810

For some Leaf fans this is enough, and for others they've had enough !!!.

For some long-term suffering Leaf fans that haven't seen the Leafs win a playoff round in 18 years since 2004 its no longer enough. Excuses fall on deaf ears.

Trust is earned, and how can anyone believe this core and this team with this management group has provided evidence beyond making the playoffs.

Even when the team is the favourite in a series and has home ice including game #7, they always come up short.

For Leaf fans HOPE is all we have to cling to, when reality has left you nothing else.

Maybe we have to wait 100 years like the Red Sox and Cubs.

 

[Americanadian]

Yes, the rest of my post was basically arguing that the point you're making here doesnt really make sense. It seems like you only read after half a sentence in the middle of my post and missed the rest.

I read it. It's an argument that's been made on this board a million times. It doesn't explain why Rantanen got 9.2Mx6 in the same off season as Marner. It doesn't explain why Nylander took almost 1M more than Ehlers a year later. It doesn't explain why Matthews signed for the second highest AAV at the time and only 5 years.

I'll put this up to you - why do you think the Leafs can't get past the first round?

 

[kb]

For no Leaf fan is that enough, we’re just not miserable babies who feel the incessant need to complain about everything.

And we realize that winning is a 1/32 shot every season.

 

[Mess]

Maybe we have to wait 100 years like the Red Sox and Cubs.

With the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs breaking their respective curses this century, the longest droughts in professional sports history has changed.

Which teams have the longest championship droughts?

Here are the teams with the longest-running droughts in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL

NFL: Twelve NFL teams have never won a Super Bowl, but no team has gone longer without a championship than the Arizona Cardinals. The organization’s last title came in 1947, when there were only 10 teams in the NFL and the Cardinals were playing in Chicago.

NBA: The Sacramento Kings have a historic playoff drought to go along with their historic championship drought. The organization’s last championship came in 1951, when the team was the Rochester Royals. Since then, the team has used four different names and reached just two conference finals, losing both.

MLB: The longest World Series drought now belongs to the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland has not won a title since 1948, but it has come close to winning one several times. The team lost the World Series four times over the last 73 seasons, most recently in 2016 when the Cubs snapped their unprecedented 108-year skid. Three more MLB teams have World Series droughts that extend 50-plus years: the Texas Rangers (61), Milwaukee Brewers (53) and San Diego Padres (53).

NHL: One of the NHL’s Original Six organizations has gone over five decades without lifting the Cup. The Toronto Maple Leafs have played 54 seasons since winning their last championship in the 1966-67 season. It’s been just as long since the team even reached the Stanley Cup Final, losing in five conference finals over that stretch. With a first-round exit in the 2022 playoffs, the Maple Leafs tied the record for longest Stanley Cup drought in NHL history, matching the New York Rangers’ mark from 1940 to 1994.

If the Leafs do not win the Stanley Cup this season they will set and hold the longest losing streak in NHL history all by themselves.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nothing has changed if you're implying its Leafs winning that has changed.

Oh, but something has changed. In October, when the Leafs were going through a slow start and getting some bad bounces and calls, there was certainly no shortage of comments from you, in this thread and others, making a big deal about it. Now, after going 15-1-4, suddenly "it really doesn't matter what happens" in the regular season and it's all irrelevant. Pick a lane. You can't hate on them for the regular season lows, and then dismiss the regular season highs as meaningless and expect to be taken seriously.

Last year at Game #30 the Leafs were 20-8-2 for 42 points & this year they're sitting at 19-5-6 for 44 points.

So we're currently surpassing the franchise record season we set last year? Sounds pretty good.

Last year this time they had lost 10 games and this year its 11.

Or put in a more accurate way, last year this time they had lost 8 games in regulation, and this year they've only lost 5.

When you're a diehard long-term suffering fan then the longer the Cup drought the more losing in the playoffs hurts, and for some of us unlike yourself "respect in the handshake line" is no longer cutting it.

You seem more joyful than hurt at our playoff losses, and no, "respect in the handshake line" doesn't cut it for me. I just don't feel entitled to a cup, and I recognize that it's a hard trophy to win, that takes a lot of external things going right, and the path is often not linear. I recognize that we can't go back in time, and I'd rather look toward understanding why we lost and winning the next cup, instead of destroying a top-tier team out of anger, and making up fake narratives about what happened and why we lost to dump on the team I'm supposed to be cheering for. Some of us have patience when our immediate desires aren't met.

I believe Leafs Salary Cap spending is flawed in that 4 forwards take up 1/2 the Leafs Cap and you can't build a PLAYOFF CUP contending team with 3 of the 7 highest cap forwards on the same team.

You've never justified this. You can build a cup contending team in tons of different ways, and teams have won getting less impact from the percentage of the cap that our big 4 take up. There is no one way to win, and while it's unfortunate that we hit an unexpected multi-year cap stagnation at the worst possible time, that doesn't prevent us from winning. Through effective management, we've still been able to build one of the best and most balanced teams in the league.

During the regular season Leafs are getting between 65-70% of their total goals from those 4 core forwards and very little from the surrounding cast and defense.

It's 58% this season so far, and point distribution is even more spread out. I don't know what point you think you're making. The players we pay most are performing the best? The horror!
Also why are you talking about goals? Aren't you all about "defense wins championships" and "teams are built from the goalie out"? So why no mention of us being 2nd in GAA? Why no mention of the goalies you dumped on all offseason competing for the Vezina? Is that not what you claim to be the sign of a contending team?

Leafs being the ONLY team since the Salary Cap was instituted (non recent expansion Seattle excluded) to win a playoff series due to poor spending

We haven't lost any series due to "poor spending", and most of the cap era drought is irrelevant right now. I want the cup, not winning in the first round and getting swept in the 2nd round, like you seem to think is somehow so much better.

 

[GoonieFace]

And we realize that winning is a 1/32 shot every season.

Winning the cup yes, but at least give us something in the postseason over the past 6 years. Instead they just find new embarrassing ways to lose

 

[Dekes For Days]

If I was a betting man and used their playoff performances over the last 6 seasons as a gauge for future playoff success, I would some sweet cash.

Not sure what this has to do with anything, but if you made playoff bets based exclusively on past series wins/losses, you'd lose all your money.

 

[GoonieFace]

Not sure what this has to do with anything, but if you made playoff bets based exclusively on past series wins/losses, you'd lose all your money.

This is a Leaf’s forum, and if I employed this strategy with them I would be 6 for 6

 

[Dekes For Days]

It doesn't explain why Rantanen got 9.2Mx6 in the same off season as Marner. It doesn't explain why Nylander took almost 1M more than Ehlers a year later. It doesn't explain why Matthews signed for the second highest AAV at the time and only 5 years.

The answers to that are really simple and have been explained and proven countless times. Marner made more than Rantanen because Marner was better than Rantanen through his pre-signing period. Nylander made more than Ehlers because Nylander was better than Ehlers through his pre-signing period. Matthews signed the 6th highest value post-ELC forward contract in the cap era because he was, at worst, the 5th best forward at time of signing a post-ELC contract in the cap era, and he signed for the most common post-ELC term in the cap era for top tier players (5 years) in order to make sure the team could keep everybody together.

 

[Jojalu]

With the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs breaking their respective curses this century, the longest droughts in professional sports history has changed.

Which teams have the longest championship droughts?

Here are the teams with the longest-running droughts in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL

NFL: Twelve NFL teams have never won a Super Bowl, but no team has gone longer without a championship than the Arizona Cardinals. The organization’s last title came in 1947, when there were only 10 teams in the NFL and the Cardinals were playing in Chicago.

NBA: The Sacramento Kings have a historic playoff drought to go along with their historic championship drought. The organization’s last championship came in 1951, when the team was the Rochester Royals. Since then, the team has used four different names and reached just two conference finals, losing both.

MLB: The longest World Series drought now belongs to the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland has not won a title since 1948, but it has come close to winning one several times. The team lost the World Series four times over the last 73 seasons, most recently in 2016 when the Cubs snapped their unprecedented 108-year skid. Three more MLB teams have World Series droughts that extend 50-plus years: the Texas Rangers (61), Milwaukee Brewers (53) and San Diego Padres (53).

NHL: One of the NHL’s Original Six organizations has gone over five decades without lifting the Cup. The Toronto Maple Leafs have played 54 seasons since winning their last championship in the 1966-67 season. It’s been just as long since the team even reached the Stanley Cup Final, losing in five conference finals over that stretch. With a first-round exit in the 2022 playoffs, the Maple Leafs tied the record for longest Stanley Cup drought in NHL history, matching the New York Rangers’ mark from 1940 to 1994.

If the Leafs do not win the Stanley Cup this season they will set and hold the longest losing streak in NHL history all by themselves.

I think the Leafs are close to good enough to win this year but it's still a longshot and they will most likely hold the record.

If it does go to Gaurdians level, I will almost certainly have lived a life without ever seeing them hoist the Cup.

Yet every year I will hope and cheer right up til the last minute of Game 7 where I will begin the grieving process again and get myself ready for the next year.

GLG

 

[Larcos_Unal]

With the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs breaking their respective curses this century, the longest droughts in professional sports history has changed.

Which teams have the longest championship droughts?

Here are the teams with the longest-running droughts in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL

NFL: Twelve NFL teams have never won a Super Bowl, but no team has gone longer without a championship than the Arizona Cardinals. The organization’s last title came in 1947, when there were only 10 teams in the NFL and the Cardinals were playing in Chicago.

NBA: The Sacramento Kings have a historic playoff drought to go along with their historic championship drought. The organization’s last championship came in 1951, when the team was the Rochester Royals. Since then, the team has used four different names and reached just two conference finals, losing both.

MLB: The longest World Series drought now belongs to the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland has not won a title since 1948, but it has come close to winning one several times. The team lost the World Series four times over the last 73 seasons, most recently in 2016 when the Cubs snapped their unprecedented 108-year skid. Three more MLB teams have World Series droughts that extend 50-plus years: the Texas Rangers (61), Milwaukee Brewers (53) and San Diego Padres (53).

NHL: One of the NHL’s Original Six organizations has gone over five decades without lifting the Cup. The Toronto Maple Leafs have played 54 seasons since winning their last championship in the 1966-67 season. It’s been just as long since the team even reached the Stanley Cup Final, losing in five conference finals over that stretch. With a first-round exit in the 2022 playoffs, the Maple Leafs tied the record for longest Stanley Cup drought in NHL history, matching the New York Rangers’ mark from 1940 to 1994.

If the Leafs do not win the Stanley Cup this season they will set and hold the longest losing streak in NHL history all by themselves.

Records were meant to be broken...

 

[Dekes For Days]

This is a Leaf’s forum, and if I employed this strategy with them I would be 6 for 6

Funny thing is, that's not even true. You can't base bets on a past series outcome that doesn't yet exist.
Go ahead and make some bets based exclusively on past series outcomes, but don't be upset when you lose all your money.

 

[leafs in five]

Mess did you colour that chart background in on MS paint? there are better free tools now!

 

[Americanadian]

The answers to that are really simple and have been explained and proven countless times. Marner made more than Rantanen because Marner was better than Rantanen through his pre-signing period. Nylander made more than Ehlers because Nylander was better than Ehlers through his pre-signing period. Matthews signed the 6th highest value post-ELC forward contract in the cap era because he was, at worst, the 5th best forward at time of signing a post-ELC contract in the cap era, and he signed for the most common post-ELC term in the cap era for top tier players (5 years) in order to make sure the team could keep everybody together.

I completely disagree that Marner was ~20% better than Rantanen and Nylander was ~16% better than Ehlers (Ehlers also took 7 years).

 

[Dekes For Days]

I completely disagree that Marner was ~20% better than Rantanen and Nylander was ~16% better than Ehlers (Ehlers also took 7 years).

Nylander got 9.5% more than Ehlers, not 16%, and Ehlers is one of the best deals in that 8-9% grouping, largely because of that extra year, but Nylander had a 5.7% better 5v5 P/60 and a 62.8% better PP P/60 through his pre-signing period, and was near the high end of the 8-9% grouping (which is exactly what he got).

Marner got 17.8% more than Rantanen, not 20%, and Marner had a 27.8% better 5v5 P/60, and a 24.4% better PP P/60 through his pre-signing period, and that's before even getting into the fact that, unlike Rantanen, Marner also PKed (and was quite good at it), was better defensively, and put up one of the best pre-signing seasons in the history of the cap era prior to signing.

You can cherry pick comparables and disagree based on nothing all you want, but the undeniable fact is that our young RFAs got contracts that were consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, based on what they had shown. We all wish we could underpay them even more drastically than we already do, but that was not a possibility. It's massively better to have them on these contracts than not have them at all, and those were the only two options.

 

[Americanadian]

Nylander got 9.5% more than Ehlers, not 16%, and Ehlers is one of the best deals in that 8-9% grouping, largely because of that extra year, but Nylander had a 5.7% better 5v5 P/60 and a 62.8% better PP P/60 through his pre-signing period, and was near the high end of the 8-9% grouping (which is exactly what he got).

Marner got 17.8% more than Rantanen, not 20%, and Marner had a 27.8% better 5v5 P/60, and a 24.4% better PP P/60 through his pre-signing period, and that's before even getting into the fact that, unlike Rantanen, Marner also PKed (and was quite good at it), was better defensively, and put up one of the best pre-signing seasons in the history of the cap era prior to signing.

You can cherry pick comparables and disagree based on nothing all you want, but the undeniable fact is that our young RFAs got contracts that were consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, based on what they had shown. We all wish we could underpay them even more drastically than we already do, but that was not a possibility. It's massively better to have them on these contracts than not have them at all, and those were the only two options.

6.962/6=1.16

I calculated Rantanen at 9.2 instead of 9.25M and rounded the 2% - sorry for the error.

The results speak for themselves. The contracts have prevented Dubas from fielding a cup winning team thus far.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Toronto is playing awesome. Pleasure to watch. These deals are working out pretty good overall.

That being said the Leafs can gain no merit points in the regular season this year if they don’t get out of the first round.

Leafs can’t gain anything by making the play offs. But can lose everything by missing the play offs.

I still think it’s round 3 or bust. Looks like the road to Stanley will go through Amalie Arena again.

 

[willmma]

I read it. It's an argument that's been made on this board a million times. It doesn't explain why Rantanen got 9.2Mx6 in the same off season as Marner. It doesn't explain why Nylander took almost 1M more than Ehlers a year later. It doesn't explain why Matthews signed for the second highest AAV at the time and only 5 years.

I'll put this up to you - why do you think the Leafs can't get past the first round?

I am not saying that the big 4 deals were the best deals. I felt like Dubas overpaid, and I am still mad at Marner for hamstring us with that contract.

In the playoffs, if we were getting swept, or losing series 4-2 then yes, we can say that this team make up is not good enough to win. But that's not what happened.

We went up 3-2 on the Lightning. There is no reason to say our contracts prevented us from winning a fourth. Despite the lightning being an elite team, b2b champs.

But we went up 3-1 on the Habs in that series with those contracts. There is no reason to say that our contracts prevented us from winning a fourth.

Boston was a better team than us, yet we went up 3-2 on them too.

Fact is, almost everybody in the league is having cap problems. The ones with cap space the are worst teams.

Every team that won, won despite cap problems.


Who are you going to get with an extra 5 mil? A $5M player like Mik or Hyman? We had them for cheap. That doesn't mean they didn't have the same skill level.

Why didn't we win? I don't know. Keefe got out coached? Bad bounces? Bad penalties. Vasi and Price out played Jack Campbell. Price and Vasi both put up a 0.968 on game seven.

Leafs have to learn to win close, low scoring games.

This utter obsession with the contracts is LAZY. You have a team that is shattering regular season records and is able to push to game 7. To point to the contracts is the laziest analysis as to why they haven't been able to break through.

 

[Steve]

Only a couple a drinky pooh's, Barb.


The best value contract did it for you?

I was pretty clear right at the beginning that he's wroth the money and living up to it. He had no leverage and we did. We paid him as though he was coming of a bridge deal at the time. No question he's a fantastic player but yea. that started it.

 

[Mess]

This is a Leaf’s forum, and if I employed this strategy with them I would be 6 for 6

I now longer trust my Leafs but I'm betting on the odds. Last year I got taken because even though I personally did not believe Leafs would beat Tampa Bay, I did gamble on the odds that eventually Leafs have to win a series. Right on the team prediction, but wrong on the math.

Entering the series the Leafs were sitting at 0-8 in series potential clinching games, so I thought we were due so I hedged my bet splitting my $1000 annual Vegas bet between 75% TB and 25% Leafs.

The underdog TB win still putting me ahead financially, while the Leafs losing again frustrated the hell out of me, even though you just kind of expected as Leafs fans they would of course lose in game #6 and game #7 running their streak up to 0-10 and defying odds already.

My logic suggests that If you flipped a coin 10 times and it came up tails every time and you lost each time, that if you kept flipping it eventually it has to come up heads its simply math and the law of averages coming into play now.

So I'm actually not sitting here like Charlie Brown and expecting my Leafs to win on their own merits and Lucy not to pull the football away, this playoff year, but I'm trusting the law of averages now that it would almost be unimaginable the Leafs could run their record to 0-11 and/or 0-12 in series potential clinching games for them and lose in round #1 again. While I understanding flipping a coin individually is a 50/50 proposition heads/tails or win/lose each time, and the next flip is not predicated or impacted by the previous one. If however you kept betting heads you have to eventually win.

So I actually think this is the year the Leafs will win a round and I'm betting against the odds with Vegas they don't. The math & odds are on my side, and I willing to put our 6 for 6 perfect correct record on the line to prove it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

6.962/6=1.16

8.76/8.00 = 1.095

The results speak for themselves. The contracts have prevented Dubas from fielding a cup winning team thus far.

The results do speak for themselves. The contracts have not prevented Dubas from fielding a top-tier team capable of winning the cup. The fact that we haven't yet won the cup doesn't change that. Not having our young RFA stars would just put us further behind and further away from a cup. You're suggesting a causation here based on absolutely nothing.

 

[Americanadian]

I am not saying that the big 4 deals were the best deals. I felt like Dubas overpaid, and I am still mad at Marner for hamstring us with that contract.

In the playoffs, if we were getting swept, or losing series 4-2 then yes, we can say that this team make up is not good enough to win. But that's not what happened.

We went up 3-2 on the Lightning. There is no reason to say our contracts prevented us from winning a fourth. Despite the lightning being an elite team, b2b champs.

But we went up 3-1 on the Habs in that series with those contracts. There is no reason to say that our contracts prevented us from winning a fourth.

Boston was a better team than us, yet we went up 3-2 on them too.

Fact is, almost everybody in the league is having cap problems. The ones with cap space the are worst teams.
View attachment 621883
Every team that won, won despite cap problems.


Who are you going to get with an extra 5 mil? A $5M player like Mik or Hyman? We had them for cheap. That doesn't mean they didn't have the same skill level.

Why didn't we win? I don't know. Keefe got out coached? Bad bounces? Bad penalties. Vasi and Price out played Jack Campbell. Price and Vasi both put up a 0.968 on game seven.

Leafs have to learn to win close, low scoring games.

This utter obsession with the contracts is LAZY. You have a team that is shattering regular season records and is able to push to game 7. To point to the contracts is the laziest analysis as to why they haven't been able to break through.

5M is the difference between having Hyman and Hall instead of Kerfoot and Engvall. It would have allowed the Leafs to go after Niederreiter and Marino and move Kerfoot/Hall.

8.76/8.00 = 1.095

The results do speak for themselves. The contracts have not prevented Dubas from fielding a top-tier team capable of winning the cup. The fact that we haven't yet won the cup doesn't change that. Not having our young RFA stars would just put us further behind and further away from a cup. You're suggesting a causation here based on absolutely nothing.

Am I missing the part where Nylander makes 8.76M/year and Ehlers makes 8M/year?

You are calling them cup contenders yet they haven't won a playoff round.

 

[willmma]

delete

 

[WillyC]

Hear us roar… it’s OVER.