TSN: What's holding up Kopitar's new contract? (MOD WARNING) post #205

[driller1]

And Kane was better...and you are still leaving Sedin out

What happened to the narrative of Kane was cheaper? Facts suck huh? We can save the subjective debate of who was "better" for another time, but I take Kopitar 10 times out of 10 over Sedin.

I bet for every one player we can name who was "better value" than Kopitar, we can find 5 that were worse.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

What happened to the narrative of Kane was cheaper? Facts suck huh? We can save the subjective debate of who was "better" for another time, but I take Kopitar 10 times out of 10 over Sedin.

I bet for every one player we can name who was "better value" than Kopitar, we can find 5 that were worse.

He was still cheaper for the early years and so was Sedin.

 

[driller1]

Kopitar made $6, $6, $6.4 the first 3 years of his 2nd contract
Kane made $6.5, $6, $6 the first 3 years of his 2nd contract

Dude, you're just wrong...

He was still cheaper for the early years and so was Sedin.

Kane: 18.5M
Kopitar: 18.4M

Whatever dude.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

Kane: 18.5M
Kopitar: 18.4M

Whatever dude.

The early part is 2 . Keep trying to split hairs.... and Kame made less. But keep leaving out the Sedins because they don't fit in to the minute part of my statement pages ago that you are trying to disprove the rest of the statement with.

 

[driller1]

The early part is 2 . Keep trying to split hairs.... and Kame made less. But keep leaving out the Sedins because they don't fit in to the minute part of my statement pages ago that you are trying to disprove the rest of the statement with.

What early part? Kane has never earned 2. He went from ELC to $6.5. Way to just make stuff up.

And as I stated above, I take Kopi over Sedin any day of the week.

Why aren't we discussing M Koivu? His cap hit is $6.75M. You think he's cheaper and better than Kopitar? Or how about Vabek? Bargain at $6.5M? There are so many more examples of players that are clearly inferior than Kopitar for similar cap hits, yet you take the exception rather than the rule.

 

[Trolfoli]

Wasn't there a stretch of about 10 games where Kopitar was the only King player to score a goal?

 

[Captain Mittens*]

What early part? Kane has never earned 2. He went from ELC to $6.5. Way to just make stuff up.

And as I stated above, I take Kopi over Sedin any day of the week.

Why aren't we discussing M Koivu? His cap hit is $6.75M. You think he's cheaper and better than Kopitar? Or how about Vabek? Bargain at $6.5M? There are so many more examples of players that are clearly inferior than Kopitar for similar cap hits, yet you take the exception rather than the rule.

2 means 2 years. I didn't bring up Koivu for a reason.
Sedin was the NHL'a leading scorer and a much better player back when Kopitar signed that deal. Now ...no. NJ it we were talking about when the contract was signed

 

[Minor Boarding]

2 means 2 years. I didn't bring up Koivu for a reason.
Sedin was the NHL'a leading scorer and a much better player back when Kopitar signed that deal. Now ...no. NJ it we were talking about when the contract was signed

lol. Remind us what did E. Staal, Rick Nash, Paul Stastny, Chris Drury... sign for that offseason...

Also you are arguing over ~$500.000. That's a healthy scratched player difference... Just sayin'

 

[Captain Mittens*]

lol. Remind us what did E. Staal, Rick Nash, Paul Stastny, Chris Drury... sign for that offseason...
'

That wasn't the point. The point that was that Kopitar was overpaid for the first couple of years of his contracts. Examples were cited of players who were better and earning less. It has since evolved in to nitpicking over everything but that.
It was never stated that there were not overpaid players at the time and I only see your statement as an attempt at deflecting the original topic.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Disagree that Dean playing chicken is the best plan. The longer Kopitar goes unsigned, the more games he plays for the Kings this year, and his value in a trade continues to drop. Kopitar for 40+ games, and Kopitar at the deadline, net two different returns.

Kopitar simply walking on July 1st would be a cataclysmic disaster of asset management for this franchise, one we wouldn't recover from. If Dean can't get a deal done, he needs to consider trading Kopitar ASAP to maximize the return.

I could not disagree more, the team is in 1st place and if that remains the case, Kopitar will go nowhere until the summer should he remain unsigned.

I've talked about this before, if they want to take a step back this summer, they could move Carter, Muzzin, Martinez and put Quick out there to test his market and garner numerous picks in the first few rounds along with the likely top-10 picks in 2017 & 18(should they go that route).

 

[KINGS17]

I could not disagree more, the team is in 1st place and if that remains the case, Kopitar will go nowhere until the summer should he remain unsigned.

I've talked about this before, if they want to take a step back this summer, they could move Carter, Muzzin, Martinez and put Quick out there to test his market and garner numerous picks in the first few rounds along with the likely top-10 picks in 2017 & 18(should they go that route).

Please explain why if Dean let's this drag out until July 1, he should trade away Carter and Muzzin. Are you assuming that Kopitar would be walking for nothing?

I agree with Richie. Dean cannot allow that to happen. People are right, the Kings have a great record against the Central Division during the regular season. If the Kings win the Pacific Division and face Chicago in the first round, does anyone here really give them any more than a 50/50 chance?

The best thing that Anze Kopitar can do for the team is take a lower AAV and keep the band together. If he isn't willing to do that, then Dean should look at moving him sooner rather than later. If Kopitar was producing at a 70-point rate, I would say yes definitely see how it plays out this season, but I am not convinced that the Kings are world beaters with Kopitar playing at the level he has over the last 110 games.

People will now come in and say that it looks like he is coming around and that he is almost a PPG player over the last 13-14 games, but they neglect the fact that he is just as likely to go cold in December/January as he is to stay semi-hot.

He has driven the net with more frequency lately, but he still is far too passive in the offensive zone on the PP and when he has a chance to drive to the net. Other people see that, just look in any GDT. It is littered with posts asking why Kopitar didn't shoot or why he walled himself off on the PP.

Bottom line: what he is providing is not worth $9M+ AAV, and the team will lose depth starting next season if Dean gives him that kind of deal.

IMO, Carter is the Kings best forward at this time. His game is steady and he doesn't appear to be in decline at all. He too plays excellent defense and is a good backchecker.

I have yet to see anyone that advocates a deal that pays him close to an AAV of $10M show how Dean will re-sign Toffoli, Pearson, etc. and not have either a defense made up of Doughty and Muzzin and AHLer's or a bottom six of AHL'ers mostly on minimum contracts. Imbalaned rosters like that do not win cups, and Chicago is getting a dose of that reality this season.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Please explain why if Dean let's this drag out until July 1, he should trade away Carter and Muzzin. Are you assuming that Kopitar would be walking for nothing?

Because if Kopitar walks this team will take a huge a step back, as much as you and a few others might want to deny it, so they would better off blowing the whole thing up circa 2006 and rebuilding around Dewey and Toffoli.

 

[damacles1156]

There is no reason to move Carter/Quick/Muzzin ETC. If Kopitar's deal doesn't get done

Player like Kempe/Zykov/Gravel, are on the cusp of making the NHL team.

For all anyone knows Kempe could turn out to be Kopitar lite, he certainly has the skill set, not as big as Kopi, but faster.

Kempe is also playing more Center this year. Seriously, Kempe is the most skilled hockey player, since the Kings drafted Doughty/Kopitar. Even more skilled than Toffoli. Kempe also is not going to be spending some long burn in the AHL. He probably makes the Kings roster out of camp next season.

Kopitar leaves a big hole, but it's not going to turn the Kings into the EDM Oilers. The Kings system, and Defense/Quick is just too good. Would the Kings be cup contenders ? No, not till someone filled the production hole.

Even with Kopitar, the Kings still have holes on the roster, so it will always be that way with the Salary cap. The 2012 team was about as close a complete team you can get. It will probably never happen again.

 

[driller1]

2 means 2 years. I didn't bring up Koivu for a reason.
Sedin was the NHL'a leading scorer and a much better player back when Kopitar signed that deal. Now ...no. NJ it we were talking about when the contract was signed

So in the first 2 years of their 2nd contract, Kane made $12.5M and Kopi made $12M. You're still wrong. Keep trying.

That wasn't the point. The point that was that Kopitar was overpaid for the first couple of years of his contracts. Examples were cited of players who were better and earning less. It has since evolved in to nitpicking over everything but that.
It was never stated that there were not overpaid players at the time and I only see your statement as an attempt at deflecting the original topic.

Guess what? The Kings (and no other team in the league) is going to get the best value out of every single contract on the roster relative to the league. I am defining value as performance relative to salary. If the Kings are above the 75th percentile, then we're doing good. I would argue that Kopitar's 2nd contract provided value in the 75th+ percentile. Are there better "values" in the league? Sure. Are a vast majority worse? I would argue yes. If Kopitar were fairly valued on his second contract, he would by definition be at the 50th percentile. How anyone can think he was "overpaid" is beyond me.

Let's look at the Kings. Dustin Brown we can all agree is probably in the bottom 10th percentile in terms of value. Carter on the other hand is in the top 10th percentile. Muzzin and Martinez are probably in the top 25th percentile. Kopi's new contract should in theory put him at the 50th percentile in value (if his agent and DL are both market efficient).

 

[KINGS17]

Because if Kopitar walks this team will take a huge a step back, as much as you and a few others might want to deny it, so they would better off blowing the whole thing up circa 2006 and rebuilding around Dewey and Toffoli.

Richie and I are advocating for a trade if he can't be signed. I wouldn't let him walk for nothing. I think Richie correctly assumes that the sooner a trade occurs, if it occurs at all, the more the Kings would get in return.

I think Dean's problem is trying to figure out what he can get in a trade and if that is of more value than paying $80M over 8 years for might be one more better than average shot at the cup.

Again, it would be great if someone that advocates such a deal would look at how it impacts the roster next season and the season after that with a fairly stagnant salary cap. All I have seen to this point is Dean just has to give it to him and figure out the rest later.

People will come in and say, "Well, Brown and Gaborik are the Kings biggest cap problems." I think we all agree with that, but they never say how they would get rid of the Brown or Gaborik contracts. Usually it's some pie in the sky nonsense about the expansion draft.

 

[KINGS17]

There is no reason to move Carter/Quick/Muzzin ETC. If Kopitar's deal doesn't get done

Player like Kempe/Zykov/Gravel, are on the cusp of making the NHL team.

For all anyone knows Kempe could turn out to be Kopitar lite, he certainly has the skill set, not as big as Kopi, but faster.

Kempe is also playing more Center this year. Seriously, Kempe is the most skilled hockey player, since the Kings drafted Doughty/Kopitar. Even more skilled than Toffoli. Kempe also is not going to be spending some long burn in the AHL. He probably makes the Kings roster out of camp next season.

Kopitar leaves a big hole, but it's not going to turn the Kings into the EDM Oilers. The Kings system, and Defense/Quick is just too good. Would the Kings be cup contenders ? No, not till someone filled the production hole.

Even with Kopitar, the Kings still have holes on the roster, so it will always be that way with the Salary cap. The 2012 team was about as close a complete team you can get. It will probably never happen again.

Agree with you on the 2012 team. Once Carter and Voynov joined that squad there just were not any holes to be found. When you are rolling Martinez and 2012-Greene as your 5-6 defensemen, you are a dominant team.

I still say that

Carter
Whatever you get as the result of a Kopitar trade
Kempe
Shore

is pretty damn good, and definitely is not the end of the world. Now, I would rather have Kopitar on a reasonable deal and go with

Carter
Kopitar
Kempe
Shore

down the middle, but it seems that Kopitar's agent is going to insist on something that greatly impacts the depth of the roster when the untradeable Brown contract is considered.

 

[KopitarFAN]

There is no reason to move Carter/Quick/Muzzin ETC. If Kopitar's deal doesn't get done

Player like Kempe/Zykov/Gravel, are on the cusp of making the NHL team.

For all anyone knows Kempe could turn out to be Kopitar lite, he certainly has the skill set, not as big as Kopi, but faster.

Kempe is also playing more Center this year. Seriously, Kempe is the most skilled hockey player, since the Kings drafted Doughty/Kopitar. Even more skilled than Toffoli. Kempe also is not going to be spending some long burn in the AHL. He probably makes the Kings roster out of camp next season.

Kopitar leaves a big hole, but it's not going to turn the Kings into the EDM Oilers. The Kings system, and Defense/Quick is just too good. Would the Kings be cup contenders ? No, not till someone filled the production hole.

Even with Kopitar, the Kings still have holes on the roster, so it will always be that way with the Salary cap. The 2012 team was about as close a complete team you can get. It will probably never happen again.

That's just it though, you don't wanna be stuck in the middle like that, and banking on another Kopitar to slip through the cracks outside the top 10 at the draft.

I'd rather be awful for 3 years, as opposed to being a non-contender, but decent, and collect a ridiculous amount of draft picks by trading those players I mentioned and be able be back where we were at the 2011 draft around 2020. (Able to acquire a top player that takes you to the next level)

 

[Captain Mittens*]

So in the first 2 years of their 2nd contract, Kane made $12.5M and Kopi made $12M. You're still wrong. Keep trying.

I was talking about Kopitar's contract years, not Kane's, but keep trying to spin it in to something to benefit you and continuing to leave out the Sedins

Guess what? The Kings (and no other team in the league) is going to get the best value out of every single contract on the roster relative to the league. I am defining value as performance relative to salary. If the Kings are above the 75th percentile, then we're doing good. I would argue that Kopitar's 2nd contract provided value in the 75th+ percentile. Are there better "values" in the league? Sure. Are a vast majority worse? I would argue yes. If Kopitar were fairly valued on his second contract, he would by definition be at the 50th percentile. How anyone can think he was "overpaid" is beyond me.

Let's look at the Kings. Dustin Brown we can all agree is probably in the bottom 10th percentile in terms of value. Carter on the other hand is in the top 10th percentile. Muzzin and Martinez are probably in the top 25th percentile. Kopi's new contract should in theory put him at the 50th percentile in value (if his agent and DL are both market efficient).

Still doesn't change the fact that Kopitar was ovvrpaid in the first two years of his deal . Dustin Brown, Muzzin, Martinez, and Drury have nothing to do with it. Please stay on topic or stop replying

 

[damacles1156]

That's just it though, you don't wanna be stuck in the middle like that, and banking on another Kopitar to slip through the cracks outside the top 10 at the draft.

Who would have thought Kempe would fall were he did ?

The draft can be a crap shoot no matter where you slot. Trust me I have been studying the draft since I got into Hockey. Look at the EDM Oilers.

You have to place faith in your GM/head scout to find talent in all rounds.

Look at Michael Amadio right now, that guy is a third round pick. Look at Toffoli. Look at what the Kings staff has done with someone like Muzzin (drafted 141st overall and not signed) Quick ETC.

The only time ownership/GM is going to burn it all down, is when your drafting scouts suck, your core sucks, and the fans have had enough. That's not the Kings situation.

The Kings situation in 1995-2005 warranted a complete tear down, that's not the situation the Kings have here, even with Kopitar not on the roster.

Look at the Boston Bruins right now, everyone thought they were going to be garbage with the Seguin/Hamilton/Lucic trades.

 

[KINGS17]

Who would have thought Kempe would fall were he did ?

The draft can be a crap shoot no matter where you slot. Trust me I have been studying the draft since I got into Hockey. Look at the EDM Oilers.

You have to place faith in your GM/head scout to find talent in all rounds.

Look at Michael Amadio right now, that guy is a third round pick. Look at Toffoli. Look at what the Kings staff has done with someone like Muzzin (drafted 141st overall and not signed) Quick ETC.

The only time ownership/GM is going to burn it all down, is when your drafting scouts suck, your core sucks, and the fans have had enough. That's not the Kings situation.

The Kings situation in 1995-2005 warranted a complete tear down, that's not the situation the Kings have here, even with Kopitar not on the roster.

Look at the Boston Bruins right now, everyone thought they were going to be garbage with the Seguin/Hamilton/Lucic trades.

Player development>>>Player draft position

This is why Futa should be the Kings next GM. He gets it.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Who would have thought Kempe would fall were he did ?

The draft can be a crap shoot no matter where you slot. Trust me I have been studying the draft since I got into Hockey. Look at the EDM Oilers.

You have to place faith in your GM/head scout to find talent in all rounds.

Look at Michael Amadio right now, that guy is a third round pick. Look at Toffoli. Look at what the Kings staff has done with someone like Muzzin (drafted 141st overall and not signed) Quick ETC.

The only time ownership/GM is going to burn it all down, is when your drafting scouts suck, your core sucks, and the fans have had enough. That's not the Kings situation.

The Kings situation in 1995-2005 warranted a complete tear down, that's not the situation the Kings have here, even with Kopitar not on the roster.

Look at the Boston Bruins right now, everyone thought they were going to be garbage with the Seguin/Hamilton/Lucic trades.

Fair enough.

Still think as long as they are in 1st this is making a big deal out of nothing.

 

[damacles1156]

I don't think being in 1st place is influencing anything in any way. I think Lombardi simply wants to cover all possible scenarios, before he commits to 70-80 million dollars. Which is exactly what every GM should do. Especially with a player who 80% of the contract will be played in their 30's.

Kings will sign Kopitar, and it will be expensive, but Lombardi probably just doing his home-work.

 

[driller1]

Still doesn't change the fact that Kopitar was ovvrpaid in the first two years of his deal . Dustin Brown, Muzzin, Martinez, and Drury have nothing to do with it. Please stay on topic or stop replying

So I would just like to ask: How are you defining Kopitar as overpaid? The fact that you can find one person who has better performance relative to salary rather than comparing Kopitar's contract against the population of NHL players?

And relative value of every player in the league has everything to do with Kopitar's contract. So stop pretending like Kopitar exists in this vacuum of a 1 or 2 player comparison.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

Agree with you on the 2012 team. Once Carter and Voynov joined that squad there just were not any holes to be found. When you are rolling Martinez and 2012-Greene as your 5-6 defensemen, you are a dominant team.

I still say that

Carter
Whatever you get as the result of a Kopitar trade
Kempe
Shore

is pretty damn good, and definitely is not the end of the world. Now, I would rather have Kopitar on a reasonable deal and go with

Carter
Kopitar
Kempe
Shore

down the middle, but it seems that Kopitar's agent is going to insist on something that greatly impacts the depth of the roster when the untradeable Brown contract is considered.

Ok, in your other post you are mentioning trading Brown and Gaborik as pie in the sky. I'll buy that description on Brown but Gaborik is coming off a 27 goal season and is starting to heat up now. I'm pretty sure I can count on one hand (maybe two) how many Kings have done that in the past 15 years. I think he is movable if at the very least as a salary dump where the Kings get a late draft pick back. I think that is conservative to be honest.

But is the idea of trading Brown and/or Gaborik any more pie in the sky than assuming 1) the Kings will get an adequate replacement to center the 2nd line via trade of Kopitar 2) assuming a player who has never played an NHL game will also help offset that void? Then what happens if the your magical 2nd line center and Kempe keep the Kings competitive but not a threat to win a Cup over the next 2 or 3 years? Then do we move Doughty and Carter and start over?

I honestly believe that if the Kings move Kopitar, they ought to just blow the whole thing up. If the Kings aren't competitive over the next 3 or 4 years, Doughty will probably pack up and leave. Might as well move him now while he is under contract and could get a fat return.

I think you are in denial that a deal isn't impending and that DL is even remotely considering a trade. Everyone's second coming of DL even says this:

“Anytime we write out our core and what has made up successful, the first name we write down is our C1, Number 11,†Futa said.

I think your perspective of Kopitar is out of line with what the organization thinks of him.

 

[driller1]

Still doesn't change the fact that Kopitar was ovvrpaid in the first two years of his deal

Kopitar made $6M each of the first 2 years of his deal. He scored 81 and 73 points those 2 years. How was he overpaid?