Speculation: What would you pay Larkin on an extension?

[norrisnick]

Yeah, we remember the Z years, him taking the puck in on the perimeter, just to give it up in the O-zone.
Trying to forget and never repeat.
Oh Well.

Scroll up and read again.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You'd think fans of the team would want a good cap hit for a non-elite player.
They'd be amazed how fast you can run out of cap space when you start overpaying people.
Perhaps they forgot.
OH well.

That is why our GM is playing hardball and not signing him right now.

Jesus, Yzerman is doing what you all want and you’re still complaining. They’re also apparently seriously considering moving on from other guys who will want raises too… so what the hell is your complaints?

 

[StargateSG1]

That is why our GM is playing hardball and not signing him right now.

Jesus, Yzerman is doing what you all want and you’re still complaining. They’re also apparently seriously considering moving on from other guys who will want raises too… so what the hell is your complaints?

We are complaining? We are saying Larkin is a 8x8 player at best, you keep pressing he is somehow 9.5 million AAV player. Serious;y?

 

[SoupNazi]

That is why our GM is playing hardball and not signing him right now.

Jesus, Yzerman is doing what you all want and you’re still complaining. They’re also apparently seriously considering moving on from other guys who will want raises too… so what the hell is your complaints?

It's complaining for complaining's sake.

 

[Shaman464]

It's complaining for complaining's sake.

You say that but you should go to the TML boards to truly see that.

 

[Oddbob]

Don't know if you can go by ESPN, but tonight Buccigross (not a great announcer by the way) mentioned the Wings offered 8X8 and Larkin wants 9X8, which is the first actual numbers I have heard from anyone in the media. Again it is ESPN, so who knows if that means anything.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

We are complaining? We are saying Larkin is a 8x8 player at best, you keep pressing he is somehow 9.5 million AAV player. Serious;y?

I'm saying that we're a far better team even if we keep Larkin at 9.5M than if we let him walk and that we're kinda playing with fire if we think that dealing him for a rental package will give us something amazing.

I'm more persisting that the Wings will survive a 9.5M Larkin contract (if it came to that) than proclaiming they should run to offer it tomorrow. Yzerman is going to do everything to keep the AAV down. I'm just saying that even the worst case that ends with us keeping him isn't that bad and it's really really really stupid to chase a waterfall of some magic beans or worse just walk away from a guy because you think he's worth 64 and you won't give him 72.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Everything we've heard is Yzerman is really zeroing in on cap% rather than a solid number. So we're looking at 9.81% as what you guys are thinking (8M against 81.5M cap). Larkin and co are probably trying to push for 10.5-11% and they're trying to land between that.

I also kind of think that you all have jacked up mindsets of what a player's worth is. You're still stuck on the salary brackets of a couple years ago. 8M isn't close to a star salary anymore. That's what teams are handing to RFAs who have limited leverage now.

 

[StargateSG1]

Everything we've heard is Yzerman is really zeroing in on cap% rather than a solid number. So we're looking at 9.81% as what you guys are thinking (8M against 81.5M cap). Larkin and co are probably trying to push for 10.5-11% and they're trying to land between that.

I also kind of think that you all have jacked up mindsets of what a player's worth is. You're still stuck on the salary brackets of a couple years ago. 8M isn't close to a star salary anymore. That's what teams are handing to RFAs who have limited leverage now.

No one should ever look at % of cap limit to negotiate contracts.
That's NOT a legal tender, dollar amount is, for services rendered.
Larkin's value doesn't increase if the cap increases, that's just crazy it's even discussed.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No one should ever look at % of cap limit to negotiate contracts.
That's NOT a legal tender, dollar amount is, for services rendered.
Larkin's value doesn't increase if the cap increases, that's just crazy it's even discussed.

And yet, that's exactly how they're going to look at it. They're going to have their cap guy estimate what they think the cap is going to do in the next several years, translate that to a $ amount and use that as a barometer for the deal. Because while you may think that Larkin's value is only 8x8 (by some metric, I'm sure), he and his agent are gonna say "WTF, man, the cap's going up by 10-15M during that term. Sure, maybe that's fair under this cap, but it's going up!"

Sticking to dogmatic numbers and saying he's worth 8x8 right now today is essentially underbidding him for the rest of the deal and it's why he's not running to sign the contract. Conversely, giving him 9M may be fair in years 4-6 or something... but it's overpaying now.

 

[StargateSG1]

And yet, that's exactly how they're going to look at it. They're going to have their cap guy estimate what they think the cap is going to do in the next several years, translate that to a $ amount and use that as a barometer for the deal. Because while you may think that Larkin's value is only 8x8 (by some metric, I'm sure), he and his agent are gonna say "WTF, man, the cap's going up by 10-15M during that term. Sure, maybe that's fair under this cap, but it's going up!"

Sticking to dogmatic numbers and saying he's worth 8x8 right now today is essentially underbidding him for the rest of the deal and it's why he's not running to sign the contract. Conversely, giving him 9M may be fair in years 4-6 or something... but it's overpaying now.

Ever heard of the GM mentioning that elusive cap % crap?
I get why players, agents, scribes, and posters do it...
GM don't give a damn.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Ever heard of the GM mentioning that elusive cap % crap?
I get why players, agents, scribes, and posters do it...
GM don't give a damn.

Literally any f***in GM with a brain. Static dollar numbers don't make a lick of sense for comparability's sake. I would be absolutely gobsmacked if the Wings didn't have an analysis of their cap with that exact number in the table. Maybe even some nice pie charts in a powerpoint presentation. GM's and particularly the teams that they point towards managing their cap care about that more than anyone. It's basic damn budgeting.

Nick Lidstrom made 7M. Should nobody make more than 7M on the Red Wings ever because Nick Lidstrom is one of the best players that ever played for us? Or.. is the fact that the cap was like 40M when Lidstrom made that 7M relevant, do you think?

 

[Shaman464]

Everything we've heard is Yzerman is really zeroing in on cap% rather than a solid number. So we're looking at 9.81% as what you guys are thinking (8M against 81.5M cap). Larkin and co are probably trying to push for 10.5-11% and they're trying to land between that.

I also kind of think that you all have jacked up mindsets of what a player's worth is. You're still stuck on the salary brackets of a couple years ago. 8M isn't close to a star salary anymore. That's what teams are handing to RFAs who have limited leverage now.

Larkin isn't a star.

 

[StargateSG1]

Literally any f***in GM with a brain. Static dollar numbers don't make a lick of sense for comparability's sake. I would be absolutely gobsmacked if the Wings didn't have an analysis of their cap with that exact number in the table. Maybe even some nice pie charts in a powerpoint presentation. GM's and particularly the teams that they point towards managing their cap care about that more than anyone. It's basic damn budgeting.

Nick Lidstrom made 7M. Should nobody make more than 7M on the Red Wings ever because Nick Lidstrom is one of the best players that ever played for us? Or.. is the fact that the cap was like 40M when Lidstrom made that 7M relevant, do you think?

Gm to owner...
Hi sir, I just saved you 1% of the salary cap percentage..
Owner to GM..
Really? Good job.. What's the $ amount?

You need to understand how silly this sounds, if you are an owner OR GM.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Larkin isn't a star.

No shit. I'm not saying he is. I literally said that wasn't a salary that a star would get. Hell, 9M isn't a star salary anymore. That's 11-12-13+. Between 8-9 is what you give to the highly drafted youngsters that you hope will blossom into stars when you're hoping to eat 2-3 years of UFA time.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Gm to owner...
Hi sir, I just saved you 1% of the salary cap percentage..
Owner to GM..
Really? Good job.. What's the $ amount?

You need to understand how silly this sounds, if you are an owner OR GM.

Oh my god, that's so dumb.

You're right, I need to understand how your made up conversation that has nothing to do with team building or utilizing a limited resource in the most efficient manner sounds very silly.

The salary cap each year is a flat rate. Yes, you accrue cap daily as you go through the years and that's a complicating manner, but the underlying principle is simple. You have a finite amount of resources to build the best team you can. And you do so by saying okay, we have to have this many forwards, this many defensemen and this many goalies... and you rank how important those are to you. Spend more on forwards and you've gotta take the hit in D or goalie and vice versa.

Executive summarizing things in dollars for the owner... well, that's got nothing to do with building a roster.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Larkin is 91st in goals scored.56th in points. He is a second line center and needs to be paid like one. He is a solid mid tier star...

 

[jkutswings]

"Pay Larkin as a 2C!"

Which would lead him to walking for nothing.
And these boards turning to plasma as Copp becomes our 1C next season.

 

[kliq]

Larkin is 91st in goals scored.56th in points. He is a second line center and needs to be paid like one. He is a solid mid tier star...

I mean, considering there are 96 1st line players in the league and you’re saying he ranks 91st and 56th despite missing some games, you’re point doesn’t exactly point to him being a second line player. He’s a lower tier first liner. Sure if he’s on our second line that gives us a huge advantage, but the guy puts up 1st line production.

 

[wingerdinger]

I mean, considering there are 96 1st line players in the league and you’re saying he ranks 91st and 56th despite missing some games, you’re point doesn’t exactly point to him being a second line player. He’s a lower tier first liner. Sure if he’s on our second line that gives us a huge advantage, but the guy puts up 1st line production.

Yes but you can recognize that in a league when your objective is to win championships that just isnt good enough.

 

[lilidk]

Literally any f***in GM with a brain. Static dollar numbers don't make a lick of sense for comparability's sake. I would be absolutely gobsmacked if the Wings didn't have an analysis of their cap with that exact number in the table. Maybe even some nice pie charts in a powerpoint presentation. GM's and particularly the teams that they point towards managing their cap care about that more than anyone. It's basic damn budgeting.

Nick Lidstrom made 7M. Should nobody make more than 7M on the Red Wings ever because Nick Lidstrom is one of the best players that ever played for us? Or.. is the fact that the cap was like 40M when Lidstrom made that 7M relevant, do you think?

When Lindstrom played hockey my insurance was 30 $ month for entire family

 

[kliq]

Yes but you can recognize that in a league when your objective is to win championships that just isnt good enou

Yes but you can recognize that in a league when your objective is to win championships that just isnt good enough.

It’s a bit more complicated then that. With that logic, Edmonton should win the cup every year and St. Louis never should have gotten close to winning one. It’s about a number of things from your top line to you D to your goalie. It’s a team sport.

 

[FlyguyOX]

And yet, that's exactly how they're going to look at it. They're going to have their cap guy estimate what they think the cap is going to do in the next several years, translate that to a $ amount and use that as a barometer for the deal. Because while you may think that Larkin's value is only 8x8 (by some metric, I'm sure), he and his agent are gonna say "WTF, man, the cap's going up by 10-15M during that term. Sure, maybe that's fair under this cap, but it's going up!"

Sticking to dogmatic numbers and saying he's worth 8x8 right now today is essentially underbidding him for the rest of the deal and it's why he's not running to sign the contract. Conversely, giving him 9M may be fair in years 4-6 or something... but it's overpaying now.

This. I thought it was common sense that was how all cap hits were negotiated and calculated.

 

[Oddbob]

Do people realize that Larkin's numbers go up if others on the team also score. He has never even had 1 guy put up anywhere near 82 pts in a season or actual ppg, not pace, but actual performance. He may not be a top tier guy, but he also doesn't play with top tier guys. Nazem Kadri put up 87 pts last year (well above his norm), because he got to play on a really good team. Are you really telling me that near PPG from Larkin the past 2 seasons isn't getting more pts with at least one linemate who puts up at least 80 pts alongside him and a blueliner who can manage more than 30ish pts???

Larkin's best linemates for the most part have been Mantha, 48 pt career high, Bertuzzi 62 pt career high, and on defence it is Seider with one 50 pt season and before that, 31-38 pts from Hronek. Raymond has 1 season of 57 pts which was great for a rookie, but isn't great when talking about high pt totals.

I think it is completely within the realm if he plays 70 games a season to put up 80-85 pts with wingers and defence who also help score. Right now we are a one line team, which also makes it extremely easy to shut us down as they put their top guys against Larkin and because there is very little else to be worried about doing serious damage. That is more than fine to be part of a championship team. When Yzerman finally won the Cup, he did so during his lowest pt totals ever. Point is, one guy can't lead a team to the Cup or being competitive.

When Lindstrom played hockey my insurance was 30 $ month for entire family

Lindstrom plays right now! I doubt you pay that for insurance now.

 

[Shaman464]

Do people realize that Larkin's numbers go up if others on the team also score. He has never even had 1 guy put up anywhere near 82 pts in a season or actual ppg, not pace, but actual performance. He may not be a top tier guy, but he also doesn't play with top tier guys. Nazem Kadri put up 87 pts last year (well above his norm), because he got to play on a really good team. Are you really telling me that near PPG from Larkin the past 2 seasons isn't getting more pts with at least one linemate who puts up at least 80 pts alongside him and a blueliner who can manage more than 30ish pts???

Larkin's best linemates for the most part have been Mantha, 48 pt career high, Bertuzzi 62 pt career high, and on defence it is Seider with one 50 pt season and before that, 31-38 pts from Hronek. Raymond has 1 season of 57 pts which was great for a rookie, but isn't great when talking about high pt totals.

I think it is completely within the realm if he plays 70 games a season to put up 80-85 pts with wingers and defence who also help score. Right now we are a one line team, which also makes it extremely easy to shut us down as they put their top guys against Larkin and because there is very little else to be worried about doing serious damage. That is more than fine to be part of a championship team. When Yzerman finally won the Cup, he did so during his lowest pt totals ever. Point is, one guy can't lead a team to the Cup or being competitive.



Lindstrom plays right now! I doubt you pay that for insurance now.

Kadri played on that team for 3 years and had one year above his average output, it wasn't just him playing for a good team, it was a confluence of factors. And the whole "Larkin would be better if he was surrounded by elite players" is exactly why he's a 2nd line player. The best thing for him and the team is for him to be further down the lineup where he can play against weaker matchups and doesn't need to sponge off of other players to finally barely qualify as a first line center.