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Speculation: What would you pay Larkin on an extension?

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Zetterberg4Captain said:
This is alot of back and forth here, but, is their any recent free agent comparable you feel is safe bring up when discussing Larkins value and bect contract.

Of course in the end what we say dosent mean a thing, but for arguements sake on this message board, let's discuss..

This may be the best approach
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Roope Hintz signed a contract in November at 26 years old for 8 years, 67.6 million, for a caphit of 8.45 million. Fairly similar scenario as far as age and UFA/RFA situation.

The deal Barzal signed in October at 26 years old for 8 years and 73.2 million, with a caphit of 9.125 million would be a comparable situation.

The deal for Hertl signed last March at 28 years old where he got 8 years, 65.1 million, and a caphit of 8.137 million would be another comparable.

These are all deals that were signed by 26/27/28 year olds and basically covered 100% UFA years.
 
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Frk It said:
Roope Hintz signed a contract in November at 26 years old for 8 years, 67.6 million, for a caphit of 8.45 million. Fairly similar scenario as far as age and UFA/RFA situation.

The deal Barzal signed in October at 26 years old for 8 years and 73.2 million, with a caphit of 9.125 million would be a comparable situation.

The deal for Hertl signed last March at 28 years old where he got 8 years, 65.1 million, and a caphit of 8.137 million would be another comparable.

These are all deals that were signed by 26/27/28 year olds and basically covered 100% UFA years.
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Perfect thx
 
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Frk It said:
Roope Hintz signed a contract in November at 26 years old for 8 years, 67.6 million, for a caphit of 8.45 million. Fairly similar scenario as far as age and UFA/RFA situation.

The deal Barzal signed in October at 26 years old for 8 years and 73.2 million, with a caphit of 9.125 million would be a comparable situation.

The deal for Hertl signed last March at 28 years old where he got 8 years, 65.1 million, and a caphit of 8.137 million would be another comparable.

These are all deals that were signed by 26/27/28 year olds and basically covered 100% UFA years.
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The Hertl deal might be the most comparable.
 
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norrisnick said:
Based on? I get you want to pick the lowest number but I'm curious as playing style and age, Hertl is the least comparable of the 3.
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Between Larkin and Barzal and Larkin and Hertl, Hertl is the more comparable player. How they get their points, their point shares, their ppg, gpg, apg, etc.
 
norrisnick said:
And Hertl had a shitty couple. Outliers are outliers for a reason.
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You don't omit outliers unless you have a very good reason to do it. It wasn't like Barzal went full Cheechoo. If you look at the full data set it becomes clear that Barzal is a better offensive player because he scores more 5 on 5, does it playing with less average ice time and his stats show he's at least on par with Larkin defensively. Then you can add other things, like Barzal is younger, has proven at least once he can elevate his game in the right circumstances, like when he plays with another good center on the same team, and he's got a good playoff track record. That would be enough to boost his payday.
 
Shaman464 said:
You don't omit outliers unless you have a very good reason to do it. It wasn't like Barzal went full Cheechoo. If you look at the full data set it becomes clear that Barzal is a better offensive player because he scores more 5 on 5, does it playing with less average ice time and his stats show he's at least on par with Larkin defensively. Then you can add other things, like Barzal is younger, has proven at least once he can elevate his game in the right circumstances, like when he plays with another good center on the same team, and he's got a good playoff track record. That would be enough to boost his payday.
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f*** it, include the stats from Barzal's Robin season. From that season on for all three players.

It's .80 PPG For Hertl
It's .83 PPG for Larkin
It's .86 PPG for Barzal

But the truly telling picture is the help they had during that time.

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1674862893956.png


Larkin had nowhere near the stability of team/linemates and nowhere near the quality.

I mean, Lucas f***ing Raymond is already the 6th highest scoring Red Wing over the 6 seasons starting with '17-'18.
 

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norrisnick said:
f*** it, include the stats from Barzal's Robin season. From that season on for all three players.

It's .80 PPG For Hertl
It's .83 PPG for Larkin
It's .86 PPG for Barzal

But the truly telling picture is the help they had during that time.

View attachment 642677

View attachment 642679

View attachment 642681

Larkin had nowhere near the stability of team/linemates and nowhere near the quality.
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But is also getting more time on the ice (about a minute per game, or almost 400 minutes more ice time over the life of these stats, or another way to think of it 22 games played or enough to even the numbers of game played between Larkin and Barzal. Funny how that is accounted for in the ppg/gpg/etc) , more offensive zone starts, more powerplay time and still has less points. None of these players are playing with amazing players other than maybe Hertl this season. But when you factor in everything Barzal is enough better than Larkin and Hertl to get a million more per season. And I think if you asked the general HF user the same question they would agree that of the three Barzal is the only one you'd go slightly above 9 million for.

So realistically its:

It's .68 PPG For Hertl
It's .73 PPG for Larkin
It's .86 PPG for Barzal
 
Shaman464 said:
But is also getting more time on the ice (about a minute per game, or almost 400 minutes more ice time over the life of these stats, or another way to think of it 22 games played or enough to even the numbers of game played between Larkin and Barzal. Funny how that is accounted for in the ppg/gpg/etc) , more offensive zone starts, more powerplay time and still has less points. None of these players are playing with amazing players other than maybe Hertl this season. But when you factor in everything Barzal is enough better than Larkin and Hertl to get a million more per season. And I think if you asked the general HF user the same question they would agree that of the three Barzal is the only one you'd go slightly above 9 million for.

So realistically its:

It's .68 PPG For Hertl
It's .73 PPG for Larkin
It's .86 PPG for Barzal
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Might have something to do with Barzal's 2 seconds of SH TOI per game and Larkin's 1:09 SH TOI per game...
 
norrisnick said:
Might have something to do with Barzal's 2 seconds of SH TOI per game and Larkin's 1:09 SH TOI per game...
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If you drop his first two years Larkin is averaging over 2 minutes per game more ice time than Barzal and was accounted for in when I added 1 minute per game instead of 2, as you dropped those seasons from the stats you posted.

Funny how that works out?
 
Shaman464 said:
If you drop his first two years Larkin is averaging over 2 minutes per game more ice time than Barzal and was accounted for in when I added 1 minute per game instead of 2, as you dropped those seasons from the stats you posted.

Funny how that works out?
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2 seconds of SH TOI.
42% on draws.

I wonder what Mat's offensive numbers would be if he had any defensive responsibilities...
 
StargateSG1 said:
You'd think fans of the team would want a good cap hit for a non-elite player.
They'd be amazed how fast you can run out of cap space when you start overpaying people.
Perhaps they forgot.
OH well.
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You'd think fans of the team would want to extend their best player rather than lose him for nothing over a few hundred thousand.
They'd be amazed how long the shitty rosters will stretch if you don't retain the little talent you have.
Perhaps they forgot the post Z era.
Oh well.
 
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norrisnick said:
You'd think fans of the team would want to extend their best player rather than lose him for nothing over a few hundred thousand.
They'd be amazed how long the shitty rosters will stretch if you don't retain the little talent you have.
Perhaps they forgot the post Z era.
Oh well.
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Yeah, we remember the Z years, him taking the puck in on the perimeter, just to give it up in the O-zone.
Trying to forget and never repeat.
Oh Well.
 
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