Speculation: What would you pay Larkin on an extension?

[tbc2008]

Reasons to not overpay someone:

1. Because you don't think you can do better

2. Because he "deserves it" for reasons other than on ice results.

3. Because if only Stevie could pull an elite winger out of his ass. Even though said magical hockey player containing ass doesn't have an elite center in it.

You hit the trifecta of nonsense talking points.

What actually matters is paying him based on where his on ice results put him in relation to the rest of the league. Paying him 9 million a season would make him top 30 highest paid NHL player. He's been consistently outside the top 50 when it comes to production and his intangibles aren't Toews level. Until he can play like a top 30 player he doesn't get top 30 player salary.

I think at some point you missunderstood what i would point out (maybe me englisch isn't good enough to find all the right words to make it mor understanable...so I#m sorry for that and try to get it right:

I don't think 9 Million would be overpaying at all.

You're right to point out that Larks isn't a top 30 player...i totally agree...BUT...most current top 30 players are on older contracts. Which top 30 player negotiating an new contract today would sign for 9 million?? I don't think there would be any one...the actual range for top 30 players would be 10-12 Million...

Value wise i see him clearly in the range of one of the top 20 centers in the game...not top 10 tier, but in the range 11-20...

Even if his point totals aren't in that range, there are some things that matters (on and off the ice).

Being a role model for many of the young players, leading by example, playing your hart out every night, love playing for this team and yes even "being a nice guy" in the locker room...these "small" things you can't track down in points but have a value too when it comes down to negotiate your next big contract.

Because of this points I would take Larks over guys like for example RHN, Hintz, Hayes or Robert Thomas every time of the day, even the're all better point wise...

All i would like to say is: In my Opinion Larkin is the best value option (even at 9 million) at center as I can't see any clear better center we could sign for that money next july.

What would be your alternative??

Maybe Horvat could work, but would he be an huge upgrade?? I don't think so...

So I would be fine with signing Larks, in my opinion he's worth even 9 million a year, and maybe Stevie can pull some deal to bring in an real 1st line winger...or Raymond or Breggen develop into it...and then Larks will be an top 20 1st line center point wise too (for all those who care) ;-)

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Because he grew up a wings fan, it’s close to home, and we are up and coming with tons of young talent run by one of the best GMs?.. not sure why you feel so strongly It won’t happen

Horvat grew up a Wings fan? Didn't know that. Even if that were the case the man could get 9mil in the open market i doubt he takes a pay cut to make less than Larkin and he is arguably better to play on his second line....

 

[Henkka]

I would like to see Yzerman trading Larks as a rental. Getting assets, and then siningning him back at summer.

That would be absolute maximum value from this case.

Losing him for only 2 months (if the season is lost anyways), but signing long-term.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

I would like to see Yzerman trading Larks as a rental. Getting assets, and then siningning him back at summer.

That would be absolute maximum value from this case.

Losing him for only 2 months (if the season is lost anyways), but signing long-term.

Larkin's gonna see what it feels like to be on a winner and go ehh on second thought no thanks.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I would like to see Yzerman trading Larks as a rental. Getting assets, and then siningning him back at summer.

That would be absolute maximum value from this case.

Losing him for only 2 months (if the season is lost anyways), but signing long-term.

Yeah, that doesn’t happen unless you’re a guy like Keith Tkachuk where you were given your choice of places to chase a cup.

Namely, end of career guy looking to ride into sunset

 

[SirloinUB]

I would like to see Yzerman trading Larks as a rental. Getting assets, and then siningning him back at summer.

That would be absolute maximum value from this case.

Losing him for only 2 months (if the season is lost anyways), but signing long-term.

You’d lose the opportunity to sign him for 8 years which would very likely raise the overall cap hit.

And then of course the added risk that he simply decides it’s not worth returning to Detroit as others have mentioned.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I just hate so much how people don’t understand the economics of the game and act like giving Larkin 9M is this huge crime because Leon Draisaitl makes 8.5M.

Draisaitl as a UFA would make 12m minimum unless he gave a huge contract break.

Tage Thompson was a good risk to take but got that deal after one year of very good play.

 

[Frk It]

I just hate so much how people don’t understand the economics of the game and act like giving Larkin 9M is this huge crime because Leon Draisaitl makes 8.5M.

Draisaitl as a UFA would make 12m minimum unless he gave a huge contract break.

Tage Thompson was a good risk to take but got that deal after one year of very good play.

People have failed to understand this on here for as long as I can remember.

RFA years are designed to be cost controlled.

The current lottery is designed to deter/de-value tanking.

People don't like these inconvenient truths when it gets in the way of the point they want to make.

 

[ricky0034]

the amount of bickering in this thread over essentially a $1 million disagreement on valuation people have is honestly pretty hilarious

that's like 1% of the cap

 

[ricky0034]

I just hate so much how people don’t understand the economics of the game and act like giving Larkin 9M is this huge crime because Leon Draisaitl makes 8.5M.

Draisaitl as a UFA would make 12m minimum unless he gave a huge contract break.

Tage Thompson was a good risk to take but got that deal after one year of very good play.

it's always fun looking back at these bad faith benchmarks people use and seeing how many people hated those deals when they were signed too

Confirmed Signing with Link: - [EDM] Leon Draisaitl signs extension (8 years, $8.5M AAV)

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

it's always fun looking back at these bad faith benchmarks people use and seeing how many people hated those deals when they were signed too

Confirmed Signing with Link: - [EDM] Leon Draisaitl signs extension (8 years, $8.5M AAV)

forums.hfboards.com

there are some doozies in there. Holy shit, 8x8.5 for Draisaitl was such a f***in steal. I get it was an RFA deal, but it's such a good contract.

That's so far below his market value it's not even funny. Probably 3rd best long term deal in the cap era.

1. Nathan MacKinnon 6x6.
2. Roman Josi 6x4.
3. Draisaitl 8x8.5

 

[Henkka]

there are some doozies in there. Holy shit, 8x8.5 for Draisaitl was such a f***in steal. I get it was an RFA deal, but it's such a good contract.

Yeah, it was old low-scoring "abdelkader-wrestling" NHL for pre-2017.

It has been different NHL since 2017-18. The Vegas model NHL, skating etc. speed.

Draisaitl ELC scoring based on the low-scoring old era and currently he has played on the high-scoring new era. It was automaticly era-lowballed extension, no one predicted the new era. Not especially Peter Chiarelli who signed Draisaitl, he did his biggest mistake by signing Lucic, because he thought this old and slow wrestling NHL would continue. And, for Draisaitl, also having a best offensive player as your teammate - won't definitely hurt.

Draisaitl's scoring is definitely inflated, compared to old era + new era + McDavid as a teammate.

But his 8.5M contract vs. 75M cap from those days, would be 9.5M contract vs. 83.5M cap at next summer, thanks to cap inflation. That the difference between 2017 and 2023 off-seasons, without any other reasons. Just the rise of cap and projected rise of cap of ~11.8% and that makes +1M at 8-9M range.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Once Barzal signed his contract the price was set for Larkin. It’s really that simple. I think Larkin ends up at 9 and then Raymond/Seider extend for 8x8 next offseason.

Then the hope is an improved young team with an influx of talented depth pushes Larkin into 1+ PPG territory and it looks like a great long term deal

 

[Holden Caufield]

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

People have failed to understand this on here for as long as I can remember.

RFA years are designed to be cost controlled.

The current lottery is designed to deter/de-value tanking.

People don't like these inconvenient truths when it gets in the way of the point they want to make.

Is it that.. that they dont understand the difference between restricted vs unrestricted free agent contracts, or, that they disagree on player salary vs player worth?

Its kinda condescending to suggest people dont understand contract structure if they dont automatically say, well he is now UFA so he gets whatever he wants nothing more to discuss.

 

[norrisnick]

Is it that.. that they dont understand the difference between restricted vs unrestricted free agent contracts, or, that they disagree on player salary vs player worth?

Its kinda condescending to suggest people dont understand contract structure if they dont automatically say, well he is now UFA so he gets whatever he wants nothing more to discuss.

It's disingenuous to completely disregard the significant bargaining power that shifts from GM to player when the R changes to a U.

It's fine to say Player A is not worth $9m. Just don't be all shocked Pikachu when he walks and gets it from somewhere else and we end up with nothing.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

It's disingenuous to completely disregard the significant bargaining power that shifts from GM to player when the R changes to a U.

It's fine to say Player A is not worth $9m. Just don't be all shocked Pikachu when he walks and gets it from somewhere else and we end up with nothing.

Again, why say Pikachu comment?

How can anyone have a honest and intelligent conversation with so many smug undertones thrown about?

 

[norrisnick]

Again, why say Pikachu comment?

How can anyone have a honest and intelligent conversation with so many smug undertones thrown about?

Welcome to the internet. Smug undertones are a feature that has been baked in since its inception.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Welcome to the internet. Smug undertones are a feature that has been baked in since its inception.

Lol..

Oh I am aware..

Here however, on a DRW fan message board, were presumably we all like and support the same team, those sorts of comments are less needed and constructive to the type of dialogue we all came here seeking.

 

[RedHawkDown]

It's disingenuous to completely disregard the significant bargaining power that shifts from GM to player when the R changes to a U.

It's fine to say Player A is not worth $9m. Just don't be all shocked Pikachu when he walks and gets it from somewhere else and we end up with nothing.

I think it's fine if he walks and gets 9+ somewhere else. I would let him walk in that case.

 

[norrisnick]

Lol..

Oh I am aware..

Here however, on a DRW fan message board, were presumably we all like and support the same team, those sorts of comments are less needed and constructive to the type of dialogue we all came here seeking.

That is a very bold assumption around these parts.

 

[Frk It]

Is it that.. that they dont understand the difference between restricted vs unrestricted free agent contracts, or, that they disagree on player salary vs player worth?

When A determines B, and people don’t get that, it makes discussing contract values and player comps an issue.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

When A determines B, and people don’t get that, it makes discussing contract values and player comps an issue.

Except not all unrestricted free agents get paid the same..

Your approach seems to suggest the opposite.. because he is a UFA he gets x amount of dollars regardless of whether he is worth it..

 

[SirloinUB]

Is it that.. that they dont understand the difference between restricted vs unrestricted free agent contracts, or, that they disagree on player salary vs player worth?

Given some of the comps that have been thrown around the former is relevant. It is fine to disagree on a player's worth but if the basis of that disagreement is the contracts of Jack Hughes, Leon Draisaitl, (or whatever other RFA has came up throughout this thread) a lack of understanding is clearly at play.

 

[Pavels Dog]

It's disingenuous to completely disregard the significant bargaining power that shifts from GM to player when the R changes to a U.

It's fine to say Player A is not worth $9m. Just don't be all shocked Pikachu when he walks and gets it from somewhere else and we end up with nothing.

If Larkin walks and signs a 7 year, 9 million per year contract, money wasn't the issue.