Speculation: What would you pay Larkin on an extension?

[wingerdinger]

What. The damn point of what I said is that Yzerman has a running history of digging in his heels and not moving off his number or his value.

I'm not saying he should magically get ultra-deals for everyone... but when you have an executive that pretty much exclusively plays hardball with his players... he's not going to all of a sudden bend over and take it in future negotiations. Yzerman, being a superstar player for 20 years who received a pretty blessed position in seeing executive activity while he was playing, has shown a pretty good proclivity to understanding what young leaders are looking for. Stammer stuck in Tampa because he could get close to total dollars based off the 8 years and Yzerman knew Stamkos liked the area, the team, and the home feeling.

Larkin's activities right now are not anywhere near indicative of "not trusting that he'll go out and build a winner". 8M is the barest of minimums that his contract should be. Anything starting with a 7 is an insult (judging that he had a 5x6.1M that ate up some RFA years and this is his first full UFA deal).

No, what "us fans" need to do is understand the market for players and the effects of UFA/RFA, the impact of what that extra year that Detroit can give Larkin over other teams, and that while 8M is a lot of money annually, it's also kind of the barest minimum that a guy of Larkin's stature is going to get. Like if the Wings sign him to 8x8, that's a hometown discount.... that is not an overpayment. What we need to understand is that the team isn't looking to jettison pieces at the first sign of "oh god, he might leave for nothing!"

It's more disappointing that Larkin has been a legitimate 1C and people are willing to boot him out the door because he has the f***in temerity to ask for 9M annually.

I agree offering him a 7.5 mill deal would be insulting but I dont think anybody's suggesting that. And neither is Yzerman according to the little insight we've received.

This is not true, Larkin is not "clearly a #1C" especially in Yzerman eyes if he's not willing to give him a 9.5 mill contract.

You cant be afraid of letting a player walk if signing him to his contract demands hurt the teams ability to compete.

There's noise building that Yzerman thinks Horvat is a young Ryan O'Reilly and willing to pay him 9 mill. IF that's the path we take (big pinch of salt atm) and Horvat/Larkin become our two headed monsters, we'll need to build a deep team to compete . That means not overpaying for a player that's supposed to be your leader by 1 and a half million.

I really hope Larkin does sign a new contract, ultimately it's the fastest way detroit gets back to competing. But it must be for the right conditions.

The path to competing for cups is a lot more clear with one top 6 center than with zero top 6 centers.

Nashville with a gluttony of top line dmen couldn't win the cup with 3 top 6 centers. You dont just need any old top 6 center.

 

[stillwater]

There's noise building that Yzerman thinks Horvat is a young Ryan O'Reilly and willing to pay him 9 mill.

Can you provide a link to Stevie's thoughts?

 

[SirloinUB]

Nashville with a gluttony of top line dmen couldn't win the cup with 3 top 6 centers. You dont just need any old top 6 center.

And the leafs haven't gotten passed the 1st round with 2 franchise centers.

 

[Henkka]

And the leafs haven't gotten passed the 1st round with 2 franchise centers.

Nashville was at least at SC finals.

Edmonton with best 1-2 Center duo hasn't reached the conference final.

 

[wingerdinger]

Can you provide a link to Stevie's thoughts?

This is the thread I've been following. Friedman: - Horvat Talks Intensifying [Update: Jan 20, 2023 - #679]

There's a few Vancouver fans in there putting 2 and 2 together. Not saying there right at all.

And the leafs haven't gotten passed the 1st round with 2 franchise centers.

Still much rather be in there situation then ours. The leafs seem to have matured past there pond hockey rack up the stats phase and are playing very good fundamental hockey atm. The curse might just get broken.

 

[WingsToPick4th]

Looks nice but will never happen

I think all of these things are pretty reasonable

 

[SirloinUB]

Nashville was at least at SC finals.

Edmonton with best 1-2 Center duo hasn't reached the conference final.

They made it to the conference finals last year.

 

[SirloinUB]

Still much rather be in there situation then ours. The leafs seem to have matured past there pond hockey rack up the stats phase and are playing very good fundamental hockey atm. The curse might just get broken.

6 Years after they drafted their franchise talent they "might" do something noteworthy. Which honestly, just reinforces my point about the impact of losing our only top 6C.

The leafs drafted a franchise talent and its been 5 years of failure. Plus there is no guarantee Detroit gets that kind of talent in the draft. Could be 5 or more years of RNH, Hall, Yakupov, Lafrienre type talents before another Matthews comes around. And when that talent comes the lottery gods may screw us again. So then you're hoping for the next "next franchise talent" and are still needing lottery luck.

If that's how you want to approach team building you're better off chasing entertainment in a slot machine.

 

[nhlisawesome]

Getting into the playoffs each season and having a damn good team is not a failure (Leafs). Honestly it will blow up in our faces soon because that is a fantastic and fun team and they will eventually win a round in the playoffs lol

 

[wingerdinger]

6 Years after they drafted their franchise talent they "might" do something noteworthy. Which honestly, just reinforces my point about the impact of losing our only top 6C.

The leafs drafted a franchise talent and its been 5 years of failure. Plus there is no guarantee Detroit gets that kind of talent in the draft. Could be 5 or more years of RNH, Hall, Yakupov, Lafrienre type talents before another Matthews comes around. And when that talent comes the lottery gods may screw us again. So then you're hoping for the next "next franchise talent" and are still needing lottery luck.

If that's how you want to approach team building you're better off chasing entertainment in a slot machine.

yes that's how hockey works. Players take time to mature. But undeniably it's a more likely path to lead to contention, then overpaying for low end 1c types.

There's a reason why teams like chicago, arizona, san jose and philly actively got worse or stood still this past offseason. Also the new lottery system makes it a lot harder for teams to get completely screwed like we were in the past.

 

[SirloinUB]

Getting into the playoffs each season and having a damn good team is not a failure (Leafs). Honestly it will blow up in our faces soon because that is a fantastic and fun team and they will eventually win a round in the playoffs lol

Way to ignore the context of the conversation. Wingerdinger put forward that just making the playoffs isn't enough and that's is why they want to move on from Larkin (to pursue cups). In that vein, never advancing past the first round is absolutely a failure.

yes that's how hockey works. Players take time to mature. But undeniably it's a more likely path to lead to contention, then overpaying for low end 1c types.

There's a reason why teams like chicago, arizona, san jose, philly t actively got worse this past offseason. Also the new lottery system makes it a lot harder for teams to get completely screwed like we were in the past.

There is a 25% chance the last place team drafts 1st overall. That's what, 4% better than when Detroit finished dead last? Last place getting "screwed over" is overwhelming the most likely outcome.

 

[wingerdinger]

Way to ignore the context of the conversation. Wingerdinger put forward that just making the playoffs isn't enough and that's is why they want to move on from Larkin (to pursue cups). In that vein, never advancing past the first round is absolutely a failure.


There is a 25% chance the last place team drafts 1st overall. That's what, 4% better than when Detroit finished dead last? Last place getting "screwed over" is overwhelming the most likely outcome.

yes but they cant drop as much, or am i mistaken?

 

[norrisnick]

yes but they cant drop as much, or am i mistaken?

One spot difference I think. Wings were last and dropped to 4th. Now you are guaranteed at least 3rd.

 

[kliq]

Nashville was at least at SC finals.

Edmonton with best 1-2 Center duo hasn't reached the conference final.

They got there last year. They beat LA and Calgary but then lost to the Avs.

 

[StargateSG1]

They got there last year. They beat LA and Calgary but then lost to the Avs.

They also have 22 million tied up in top 2 centers, that's 25% of the Cap, hence no depth anywhere else.
Larkin must think he is Draisatl, if he is asking for 9.5 mil

 

[norrisnick]

They also have 22 million tied up in top 2 centers, that's 25% of the Cap, hence no depth anywhere else.
Larkin must think he is Draisatl, if he is asking for 9.5 mil

That or he thinks he's better than Skinner. One of those two definitely.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Larkin must think he is Draisatl, if he is asking for 9.5 mil

This is kind of silly. Draisatl would get 12 million if he were ufa right now.

 

[kliq]

They also have 22 million tied up in top 2 centers, that's 25% of the Cap, hence no depth anywhere else.
Larkin must think he is Draisatl, if he is asking for 9.5 mil

Every team in the NHL would tie up 22mil on those two centers. Draisatl is worth much much much more then 9.5mil.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Which of the top 14 teams would sign DL as a free agent this summer to a 9m plus long term(7 years)?

Genuinely curious...

 

[Shaman464]

That or he thinks he's better than Skinner. One of those two definitely.

The Skinner who is over a PPG this season? Dude had 2 meme seasons but overall he's been a guy who can score 35-40 goals in 82 games.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Crap on a f***ing cracker.

DRAISAITL SIGNED HIS 8.5M deal as an RFA and it was a wonderful deal.

It has literally nothing to do with Dylan Larkin’s contract negotiations. Like absolutely nothing.

Like I said earlier, 100% of y’all need to understand RFA vs UFA negotiations.

Getting into the playoffs each season and having a damn good team is not a failure (Leafs). Honestly it will blow up in our faces soon because that is a fantastic and fun team and they will eventually win a round in the playoffs lol

How will it blow up in our faces? The way the Leafs are structured cap-wise is not good. They have had to cut out pieces of their roster they wanted to keep to try to improve other ways and are using a broke-bitch goaltender tandem which will hurt them badly.

They’ve got a shit ton of talent and definitely should be competing for Cups… but they’re still in deep shit as they get close to the end of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander’s shorter contracts.

If Toronto wins a Cup… cool, they’ve got the talent to do so. But they’re just almost completely unable to pivot or materially improve their roster without weakening it somewhere else. I can like their talent and still think that Dubas did a f***in awful job managing those salaries

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The Skinner who is over a PPG this season? Dude had 2 meme seasons but overall he's been a guy who can score 35-40 goals in 82 games.

Dylan “not a real 1C” is at 42 pts in 45 games or a 0.93 PPG.

 

[Shaman464]

Dylan “not a real 1C” is at 42 pts in 45 games or a 0.93 PPG.

"Not a real 1C" according to media sources with connections to the Red Wings organization.

Also there are 53 players (and 61st in points) with better PPG than Larkin. So, 0.93 isn't a great number.

 

[StargateSG1]

Dylan “not a real 1C” is at 42 pts in 45 games or a 0.93 PPG.

So you'd be comfortable and would feel good if the Wings made the playoffs one day and Larkin would have to go up against anyone like Mathews, Crosby, Barkov, Bergeron, Backstrom, Zibanejad, Point and the rest?
And that's just the East.
Regular season is soft, compared to how he has to elevate his game to even match up with these guys at 1C.

 

[norrisnick]

So you'd be comfortable and would feel good if the Wings made the playoffs one day and Larkin would have to go up against anyone like Mathews, Crosby, Barkov, Bergeron, Backstrom, Zibanejad, Point and the rest?
And that's just the East.
Regular season is soft, compared to how he has to elevate his game to even match up with these guys at 1C.

If he gets a 2C as good those guys have, ya.