What Would You Do With This Team Over the Offseason?

[Nineteen67]

I wouldn’t been too upset if Matthews and Rielly were traded along with Marner.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

EK is 7 yrs older the Mitch and still has 3 yrs at 10m per left so only a massive Dubas fan would consider this a good deal for the Leafs , lol .

I would stay away from Karlsson at all costs. It's not worth the risk.

 

[hotpaws]

Panarin is fortunate that his body and speed is holding up better then Taveras. I'm sure if it was the other way around Taveras would be at the same level if not better.

Tavares has never been at Bread Mans level even in his prime , it's shocking how highly people rate JT , it's like they believe he's a Crosby clone even though he could barely hit ppg even in his best seasons .

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas did the era-destroying long before this summer rolled around.

Quite the contrary. He's the one that saved us from the destruction of Lou, and produced some of the best teams this franchise has ever seen through one of the most difficult situations the league has ever seen. And now it seems like our best hope is that his second wave of youth outpaces Treliving's destruction.

 

[TMLAM34]

You need to fire Shanahan and Keefe. Then you need to move Marner.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

What's upsetting I read several posts of stripping JT of the captaincy. Father time is catching upto him, that's not his fault its part of life. It will happened to all of us eventually, where we don't perform like we used to due to the bodies diminishing physical capabilities. You can see he gives 100% effort and it bothers him that he isnt the player he once was, give him credit for what he's done in his career and as a Leaf. Let him finish it with dignity! Stripping the captaincy would be totally ruthless to the Leaf organization, how would that be perceived through out the league, and as a Leaf player who is offered the captaincy I would turn it done out of respect for JT.

The issue has nothing to do with his physical state or his on-ice contributions.

It's to do with leadership and accountability as an organisation. It's both an honour and a responsibility to be the captain of any team. When you have effectively failed to achieve your deliverables for 6 years in a row, as a leader, you need to be held accountable to it. Whether you did it to the best of your ability or not is inconsequential - this isn't grade school where we reward people or organisations for effort rather than results.

It's not so much ruthless as it is the right thing to do for the sake of the organisation. Similar to when the board of directors ask a CEO to leave or resign (or when the CEO does it willingly). Everyone is different, but if I were Tavares, I would offer to resign the C voluntarily.

It's time for a new voice and change, and the captaincy should absolutely be in scope. If anything, I would say that the perception around the league is more negative if things don't change.

 

[mapleleafs34]

- Fire Keefe & Shanahan. Hire Berube.
- Trade Marner, Liljegren & Robertson for Parayko & Buchnevich.
- Trade Jarnkrok for nothing.
- Re-sign Domi, Dewar & Edmundson.
- Sign Montour in UFA.
- Sign or Trade for 1B Goalie
- Let the Kids play (Cowan, Minten & Woll).

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Buchnevich-Tavares-McMann
Cowan-Domi-Minten
Dewar-Kampf-Holmberg
Reaves

Rielly-Parayko
Edmundson-Montour
Benoit-McCabe
Timmins

Woll
UFA/Trade 1B Goalie

 

[Jacquestrapless]

 

[kevsh]

Off-season To Do list:

- New head coach & special teams coach
- A solid #1 goaltender that has a track record of staying healthy
- A Big, top 4 RD
- Assign a new captain
- Re-sign Domi, Edmundson, Lyubushkin
- Find a way to move Marner's contract, even if the return is wholly unsatisfactory

Big, difficult list to fulfill and given this team's complete aversion to accountability I expect at most 2 of those things will happen (outside of the re-signings).

 

[Dreakmur]

Quite the contrary. He's the one that saved us from the destruction of Lou, and produced some of the best teams this franchise has ever seen through one of the most difficult situations the league has ever seen. And now it seems like our best hope is that his second wave of youth outpaces Treliving's destruction.

Dubas inherited all the key pieces of this team from Lou. He walked into a situation where any half-competent GM could have developed into a true contender. Unfortunately, he lacked the experience and expertise to make this anything but a pretender.

Our second wave of youth? Who is that exactly? Matthew Knies and? Robertson is a bit player. Hirvonen and Neimela ? That’s not exactly the cavalry.

At least I predicted all this years ago. Non-hockey posters saw Dubas as their non-hockey guy. If he could succeed, then somehow that validated their non-hockey opinions. It’s unfortunate that they all have to fabricate and imagine that success…

 

[sunstersun]

The plan is recognize we also just didn't have enough talent. Trading first round picks for first round exits in hindsight was terrible.

Outside of Cowan it's totally empty in terms of NHL players. We haven't struck a single diamond in the later rounds yet. If the core 4 had someone pop out of nowhere, we make it past the first round.

Bertuzzi isn't worth it. Domi is I think at a decent price. I'd like to move on from Rielly.

The core is Knies, Nylander, Matthews, Woll. A lot of D are worth staying, but we need young talent that can move the puck.

Domi is fine as Matthews linemate for now, while we look for a RW for him. I get excited at the idea of Nylander with not a dead Tavares for a linemate.

Honestly, Lilly sucks. And after 8 years, we have 0 guys on the backend that are a long term part of the Leafs. How sad is that?

We need prospects. Never mortgage the future until we're actually there. The core of a contending team should get past the first round without extra help.

 

[ITM]

These are my recommendations based on some set assumptions that I am making - which hamstring my "ideal" outcome with my proposed "best desired outcome given the reality of the situation".

Assumptions:

• Tavares, Marner, and Rielly do not lift their NMC in spite of being asked by Treliving. For better or worse, this is the unfortunate reality - and we accept that the players exercise the rights that were granted to them
• Shanahan is not fired but has at least one year left in his current contract
• The Leafs do not have any cap extenuating circumstances that provide immediate relief or hindrance to their current scenario (e.g. LTIR, Robidas Island, etc.)

Strategy:

• This is far, far from my desired outcome but one that hopefully uses next season as a bridge year to set up for higher probability of success from 2025-2026 and beyond.

1) Maximise cap flexibility by minimising commitments​

2) Drive organisational and cultural change​

3) Appraise internal assets and promote Internal Growth​

Offseason Moves:

I. Fire Keefe and hire Berube, Sutter, or Julien. Someone who is a proven winner and can drive accountability. Sign this person to a three-year deal. I'm less concerned with the exact impact that the coach can incrementally have on the outcome. I do not think Keefe was a terrible coach, but each one of the other three coaches is more experienced, able to coach in the playoffs, and seemingly more adaptable to in-game tactics (which Keefe has cost this team a few times). More importantly, it sets the obvious tone that a significant change has occurred.​

​

II. Coinciding with I, I strip Tavares of the captaincy. These outcomes aren't entirely his fault, but as someone who worked as a senior manager in corporations in the past (and advises them now), the visible leader is accountable for outcomes even if he/she is not directly the sole agent in ensuring successful outcomes. It has been six years, so there has to be acknowledgement of a failure to deliver.​

• If Tavares is understanding of this basic fact and acts rationally, great. If he chooses to lift his NMC, then realistically, I would see what's out there. I doubt cap-floor teams would offer more than mid-round prospects or picks, in which case I would hang onto Tavares for 2024-2025 as long as he remains a positive clubhouse influence. The Leafs definitely won't contend in 2024-2025 but are probably playoff-bound - this experience and Tavares' contributions to the team will help the youths
• I would then make the following appointments (but ultimately trust the coach's input): Nylander (C), Rielly (A), Matthews (A). Honestly, the safer play is Rielly, but fortune favours the bold. He doesn't play a complete game, but he's the only player who legitimately has the mindset and the character to win - so I give the captaincy to Nylander. The other two As are obvious as they're here for the long haul.
  • This also sends a clear message to Marner that he's only here for the year and not part of the future. If he waives his NMC (I highly doubt he'd do this going into a UFA year), I would see what's out there in terms of material assets. Unlike Tavares, Marner would get a haul and I would pull the trigger, even if the Leafs miss the playoffs next season because of it.

III. UFAs. I would not commit to any player above 4 seasons, which then ensures minimal commitment in case Matthews leaves as a UFA and a full rebuild is needed (upon which Nylander and Rielly might waive their NMC). These are the following signings that I would make:​

• Domi - $4.5M x 4 = $18M
• Pesce - $5.5M x 4 = $22M
• Lyubushkin - $1.0M x 2 = $2M
• Raanta - $1.75M x 1 = $1.75M

This leaves around $3M left in cap space for mid-season acquisitions in the event that the Leafs overperform next season heading into the trade deadline. If any of these players do not agree to the terms above, I'd try to find an equivalent in the UFA pool or fill in organically with youths and buy at the trade-deadline if the team overperforms.​

​

IV. Investment in Youth. I would use the year to evaluate the existing young talent and farm system to make personnel changes gearing up for the 2025-2026 season once Marner and Tavares come off the book. Re-sign all RFAs at no more than a 10% premium on 2-year bridge deals or go to 1-year arbitration. My proposed roster for next season:​

​

Forwards​

Knies Matthews Marner​

Robertson Domi Nylander​

Hirvonen/Holmberg Tavares McMann​

Dewar Minten/Holmberg Steeves​

​

Defence​

Rielly Pesce​

McCabe Liljegren​

Benoit Lyubushkin​

​

Goaltenders​

Woll​

Raanta​

Hildeby​

​

​

Does this team contend for the cup? Lol - not even close. But there's more than enough firepower on the team to make the wild card, especially if the coaching and new captaincy/culture can squeeze out some regular season victories.* But it gives the youths the opportunity to get more seasoned experience under their belt to retool and really go for it from 2025-2026 and beyond once Tavares and Marner come off the books.

* - You also never know. In the playoffs, anything can happen - and we truly don't know the negative impact that the coaching and culture/leadership was having in holding back this team this season. We also don't know how "good" Woll truly is especially if he can use this summer to get healthy and build for a full regular season. So a lot of unknowns, but I'd use 2024-2025 as a bridge and developmental year with a puncher's chance at competing in the playoffs.

Like the boldness to name Nylander captain. I've said the same before, even going so far last year to say that we should (have) renegotiate with Nylander first and set his deal as the bar, come what may.

I think because Matthews is what he is, there's an element of redemption that's required in righting the initial wrong.

But I wouldn't bat an eye if the C was given to Nylander in the least.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas inherited all the key pieces of this team from Lou. He walked into a situation where any half-competent GM could have developed into a true contender.

He walked into a very flawed team with a depleted prospect pool and multiple anchors, that was being propped up by unsustainable goaltending that would soon implode, piles of ELC surplus value that would soon be gone, departing depth from the previous era, an unsustainable shootout record, and short-term decision making. He quickly built it into one of the best teams in the league through one of the most difficult league situations ever.

Our second wave of youth? Who is that exactly?

Knies, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann, Niemela, Minten, Grebenkin, Cowan, Hildeby, etc. Unfortunately, the promising Amirov was ripped from that list.

Non-hockey posters saw Dubas as their non-hockey guy.

More accurately, hockey posters recognized their hockey GM making good hockey decisions for their hockey team, for once.

 

[egd27]

which are?
(not being facetious. dead serious).

Great question.

I've probably read at least half a dozen posts in this thread about stripping the C from him, but I have no idea how that addresses the on ice weaknesses of the team.

 

[sunstersun]

He walked into a very flawed team with a depleted prospect pool and multiple anchors, that was being propped up by unsustainable goaltending that would soon implode, piles of ELC surplus value that would soon be gone, departing depth from the previous era, an unsustainable shootout record, and short-term decision making. He quickly built it into one of the best teams in the league through one of the most difficult league situations ever.

Knies, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann, Niemela, Minten, Grebenkin, Cowan, Hildeby, etc. Unfortunately, the promising Amirov was ripped from that list.

More accurately, hockey posters recognized their hockey GM making good hockey decisions for their hockey team, for once.

Outside of of Knies and Cowan. Everyone else is completely meh.

 

[NVious]

The plan is recognize we also just didn't have enough talent. Trading first round picks for first round exits in hindsight was terrible.

Outside of Cowan it's totally empty in terms of NHL players. We haven't struck a single diamond in the later rounds yet. If the core 4 had someone pop out of nowhere, we make it past the first round.

Bertuzzi isn't worth it. Domi is I think at a decent price. I'd like to move on from Rielly.

The core is Knies, Nylander, Matthews, Woll. A lot of D are worth staying, but we need young talent that can move the puck.

Domi is fine as Matthews linemate for now, while we look for a RW for him. I get excited at the idea of Nylander with not a dead Tavares for a linemate.

Honestly, Lilly sucks. And after 8 years, we have 0 guys on the backend that are a long term part of the Leafs. How sad is that?

We need prospects. Never mortgage the future until we're actually there. The core of a contending team should get past the first round without extra help.

We do have enough talent, they just don't show up in the playoffs.

Hyman outscored our core 4 with 7 goals to their 6 meanwhile we paid 46 million to his 5.5.

They need to move on from Tavares and Marner ASAP as they are the most movable if they actually have the balls to demand they waive their NTC or go totally nuclear with them.

 

[Dreakmur]

He walked into a very flawed team with a depleted prospect pool and multiple anchors, that was being propped up by unsustainable goaltending that would soon implode, piles of ELC surplus value that would soon be gone, departing depth from the previous era, an unsustainable shootout record, and short-term decision making. He quickly built it into one of the best teams in the league through one of the most difficult league situations ever.

The prospect pool was depleted because all their prospects made the NHL.

Knies, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann, Niemela, Minten, Grebenkin, Cowan, Hildeby, etc. Unfortunately, the promising Amirov was ripped from that list.

More accurately, hockey posters recognized their hockey GM making good hockey decisions for their hockey team, for once.

McMann was brought into the organization by the AHL GM. Cowan was drafted after Dubas was fired.

So we’re left with Knies and a pile meh.

Hockey posters know why he failed. You still don’t get it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The prospect pool was depleted because all their prospects made the NHL.

Putting all of your prospects into the NHL at once and then failing to replenish the pool creates issues when those prospects all come due for their next contracts at the same time and you no longer have cheap internal depth to offset their raises. Especially when you also have to navigate anchors that extend beyond the re-signing period, and the league experiences an unexpected multi-year flat cap.

McMann was brought into the organization by the AHL GM. Cowan was drafted after Dubas was fired. So we’re left with Knies and a pile meh.

McMann was brought in by Dubas. Cowan was drafted by the director of scouting that Dubas put in place, when Treliving was prevented from being involved. And is part of the next wave that you asked for. The rest are in no way a "pile of meh". In fact, many pieces that you are calling "meh" helped save our depth this year.

Hockey posters know why he failed. You still don’t get it.

Hockey posters know the positives he brought, whether you get it or not.

 

[egd27]

He quickly built it into one of the best teams in the league through one of the most difficult league situations ever.

The best teams in the league do not sport a .432 Playoff winning percentage over the past 5 years.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The best teams in the league do not sport a .432 Playoff winning percentage over the past 5 years.

The best teams in the league put up 111, 113, and 115 point seasons with good balance and underlying results.

 

[egd27]

The best teams in the league put up 111, 113, and 115 point seasons with good balance and underlying results.

Oh regular season now?

Ok, the best teams in the league win their divisions in the regular season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ok, the best teams in the league win their divisions in the regular season.

Some do (and we have). Some don't, especially when competing against the President's trophy winner in their division every year.

 

[Goose]

Why is buying out Tavares not an option?!

It will only cost us $303,000 each season for two seasons. Honestly I think the leafs should seriously consider that. It would be ruthless but clears you $10.5 million immediately

Edit I lied, because of how his contract is structured it’s a $10.3 cap hit. So it’s better to let it expire

Yeah and I mean he’s way overpaid, but he’s serviceable at centre still, still can create plays and score goals, though admittedly his speed looks more and more Jason Allison-esque with each passing game.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Great question.

I've probably read at least half a dozen posts in this thread about stripping the C from him, but I have no idea how that addresses the on ice weaknesses of the team.

when you see something let me know. because as far as i can tell it's because he doens't produce anymore thus - strip him from captain.

 

[Dreakmur]

Putting all of your prospects into the NHL at once and then failing to replenish the pool creates issues when those prospects all come due for their next contracts at the same time and you no longer have cheap internal depth to offset their raises. Especially when you also have to navigate anchors that extend beyond the re-signing period, and the league experiences an unexpected multi-year flat cap.

When you have truly good prospects, they graduate to the NHL. That’s what Dubas inherited. Not just Marner, Matthews, and Nylander, but also Johnsson, Kapanen, Engvall, Liljegren, Woll, etc

McMann was brought in by Dubas.

He was brought in on an AHL contract, which when it applied to Justin Holl, was the work or the AHL GM and not the NHL GM.

Cowan was drafted by the director of scouting that Dubas put in place, when Treliving was prevented from being involved. And is part of the next wave that you asked for.

He was drafted after Dubas was fired. He is part of the way wave, but he’s not a Dubas prospect.

rest are in no way a "pile of meh". In fact, many pieces that you are calling "meh" helped save our depth this year.

Holmberg is a bottom 6 guy. Robertson is a maybe NHLer

Hockey posters know the positives he brought, whether you get it or not.

He did some good, some bad. Ultimately he failed because of h the bad.