These are my recommendations based on some set assumptions that I am making - which hamstring my "ideal" outcome with my proposed "best desired outcome given the reality of the situation".
Assumptions:
- Tavares, Marner, and Rielly do not lift their NMC in spite of being asked by Treliving. For better or worse, this is the unfortunate reality - and we accept that the players exercise the rights that were granted to them
- Shanahan is not fired but has at least one year left in his current contract
- The Leafs do not have any cap extenuating circumstances that provide immediate relief or hindrance to their current scenario (e.g. LTIR, Robidas Island, etc.)
Strategy:
- This is far, far from my desired outcome but one that hopefully uses next season as a bridge year to set up for higher probability of success from 2025-2026 and beyond.
1) Maximise cap flexibility by minimising commitments
2) Drive organisational and cultural change
3) Appraise internal assets and promote Internal Growth
Offseason Moves:
I. Fire Keefe and hire Berube, Sutter, or Julien. Someone who is a proven winner and can drive accountability. Sign this person to a three-year deal. I'm less concerned with the exact impact that the coach can incrementally have on the outcome. I do not think Keefe was a terrible coach, but each one of the other three coaches is more experienced, able to coach in the playoffs, and seemingly more adaptable to in-game tactics (which Keefe has cost this team a few times). More importantly, it sets the obvious tone that a significant change has occurred.
II. Coinciding with I, I strip Tavares of the captaincy. These outcomes aren't entirely his fault, but as someone who worked as a senior manager in corporations in the past (and advises them now), the visible leader is accountable for outcomes even if he/she is not directly the sole agent in ensuring successful outcomes. It has been six years, so there has to be acknowledgement of a failure to deliver.
- If Tavares is understanding of this basic fact and acts rationally, great. If he chooses to lift his NMC, then realistically, I would see what's out there. I doubt cap-floor teams would offer more than mid-round prospects or picks, in which case I would hang onto Tavares for 2024-2025 as long as he remains a positive clubhouse influence. The Leafs definitely won't contend in 2024-2025 but are probably playoff-bound - this experience and Tavares' contributions to the team will help the youths
- I would then make the following appointments (but ultimately trust the coach's input): Nylander (C), Rielly (A), Matthews (A). Honestly, the safer play is Rielly, but fortune favours the bold. He doesn't play a complete game, but he's the only player who legitimately has the mindset and the character to win - so I give the captaincy to Nylander. The other two As are obvious as they're here for the long haul.
- This also sends a clear message to Marner that he's only here for the year and not part of the future. If he waives his NMC (I highly doubt he'd do this going into a UFA year), I would see what's out there in terms of material assets. Unlike Tavares, Marner would get a haul and I would pull the trigger, even if the Leafs miss the playoffs next season because of it.
III. UFAs. I would not commit to any player above 4 seasons, which then ensures minimal commitment in case Matthews leaves as a UFA and a full rebuild is needed (upon which Nylander and Rielly might waive their NMC). These are the following signings that I would make:
- Domi - $4.5M x 4 = $18M
- Pesce - $5.5M x 4 = $22M
- Lyubushkin - $1.0M x 2 = $2M
- Raanta - $1.75M x 1 = $1.75M
This leaves around $3M left in cap space for mid-season acquisitions in the event that the Leafs overperform next season heading into the trade deadline. If any of these players do not agree to the terms above, I'd try to find an equivalent in the UFA pool or fill in organically with youths and buy at the trade-deadline if the team overperforms.
IV. Investment in Youth. I would use the year to evaluate the existing young talent and farm system to make personnel changes gearing up for the 2025-2026 season once Marner and Tavares come off the book. Re-sign all RFAs at no more than a 10% premium on 2-year bridge deals or go to 1-year arbitration. My proposed roster for next season:
Forwards
Knies Matthews Marner
Robertson Domi Nylander
Hirvonen/Holmberg Tavares McMann
Dewar Minten/Holmberg Steeves
Defence
Rielly Pesce
McCabe Liljegren
Benoit Lyubushkin
Goaltenders
Woll
Raanta
Hildeby
Does this team contend for the cup? Lol - not even close. But there's more than enough firepower on the team to make the wild card, especially if the coaching and new captaincy/culture can squeeze out some regular season victories.* But it gives the youths the opportunity to get more seasoned experience under their belt to retool and really go for it from 2025-2026 and beyond once Tavares and Marner come off the books.
* - You also never know. In the playoffs, anything can happen - and we truly don't know the negative impact that the coaching and culture/leadership was having in holding back this team this season. We also don't know how "good" Woll truly is especially if he can use this summer to get healthy and build for a full regular season. So a lot of unknowns, but I'd use 2024-2025 as a bridge and developmental year with a puncher's chance at competing in the playoffs.