What "will" Army do at the TDL

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think that Chychrun, Lindholm, Sanheim, Provorov, Gavrikov and Gio are the only LHDs that I'm interested in among the players who have been rumored to be potentially available.

I have varying degrees of assets I'm willing to part with on each of them, but I'm starting to think about what we do if it turns into a seller's market and the prices get ridiculous. Let's say Philly, Arizona, and Columbus all decide that they'd rather try to get better offers in the draft/summer and the Ducks either extend Lindholm or keep him as a self-rental to get their group playoff experience. Suddenly Gio is the only guy available and I could see an insane bidding war. What do we do in that scenario?

I wonder if there is any appetite to bring in a RHD upgrade to force Bortz to the 7th D man and then expanding the responsibilities of the 3rd pair to ease the burden on Parayko. If all of the potential LHD upgrades cost an arm and a leg but a guy like Damon Severson just costs an arm, I think it is worth considering paying less for the quality RHD option and then relying more on your #3 RD. I think such a deal likely only makes sense if we can add him without losing Scandella, but I've been kicking around ideas for contingency plans if the LHD market gets insane.

I think that the following is an upgrade to our group:

Krug-Faulk
Mikkola/Parayko
Scandella/Severson

Ignore top/middle/bottom pairing labels and use them situationally. Mikkola/Parayko and Scandella/Severson split the hard shutdown minutes while Krug/Faulk get even easier usage than they've been getting and dominate their competition. A Scandella/Severson pair should be more capable of easing the defensive burden than Scandella/Bortz has been and would be much better in transition. I think you can swap partners as situations and play dictates, but however you run them out we would have a legitimately good all-situation D man on the ice every second of every game between Faulk/Parayko/Severson. He's under contract next year too at a reasonable $4.1M, so it isn't a straight rental.

He probably winds up costing too much, but maybe he is an option if the LHD market shrinks more than I expect. I'm not of the mindset that we should pay whatever the market dictates to improve the defense, but I am of the mindset that we need to explore every avenue to upgrade. If the LHD market gets too expensive, I'd rather try something like this than go into the playoffs with the roster we have. The cap might make something like this impossible, but it is an idea I've been kicking around for a bit. Top 4 LHD is a clear hole and the best way to fix it is by bringing in a legit top 4 LHD. But the team D hasn't been great all year and upgrading your 3rd pair to a legit 2nd pair would help. I think we could better control an elite top line with a combination of Mikkola/Parayko/Scandella/Severson than we currently can, especially if you build and task a ROR line as a shutdown group to shadow that line.

I like severson and think he could help us in way you outline. My question is how do we fit him under cap if we don’t move Scandella? Sunny perhaps but anyone else with $ we would really feel.

 

[PocketNines]

If the market gets bad under that also-realistic scenario, I do think Armstrong will add someone as a 5-6-7 for a non-premium price. I'd put on a brave face and hope with a fan's heart but I also wouldn't lie to myself about what I expect the end result to be. I'd want them to get in a matchup with Minnesota in Round 1 and also hope Colorado gets Vegas or Dallas in round 1. Possibly LA. They would need a hero performance in net to go anywhere.

Then I'd be thinking about how to add the LHD they still need with a draft-week trade. Next season is still an open window season if they acquired Chychrun at the draft for example.

Another thought on Tarasenko's next contract. Suddenly STL is the most comfortable place to be in a situation where being in a comfortable environment suddenly becomes a premium. Where else can he get his name chanted? Is right now when you want to be moving to a brand new situation?

 

[LGB]

If the market gets bad under that also-realistic scenario, I do think Armstrong will add someone as a 5-6-7 for a non-premium price. I'd put on a brave face and hope with a fan's heart but I also wouldn't lie to myself about what I expect the end result to be. I'd want them to get in a matchup with Minnesota in Round 1 and also hope Colorado gets Vegas or Dallas in round 1. Possibly LA. They would need a hero performance in net to go anywhere.

Then I'd be thinking about how to add the LHD they still need with a draft-week trade. Next season is still an open window season if they acquired Chychrun at the draft for example.

Another thought on Tarasenko's next contract. Suddenly STL is the most comfortable place to be in a situation where being in a comfortable environment suddenly becomes a premium. Where else can he get his name chanted? Is right now when you want to be moving to a brand new situation?

I don't think we'll be able to afford both him and ROR when Kyrou and Thomas get their big extensions.

 

[LGB]

We're going to need to re-tool pretty soon. The only reason we're so deep right now is we have Kyrou and Thomas on contracts that are much lower than the actual value they bring. That's why getting someone like Chychrun is so perfect. He enhances our current team and gives us a third building block for the future. Right now we don't have any young defenseman anywhere in the organization that you'd expect to become top pairing all-situations guys.

 

[PocketNines]

I don't think we'll be able to afford both him and ROR when Kyrou and Thomas get their big extensions.

Likely true. I'm more suggesting that "staying in STL" got a lot more attractive for 91 in the last week.

 

[Brian39]

I like severson and think he could help us in way you outline. My question is how do we fit him under cap if we don’t move Scandella? Sunny perhaps but anyone else with $ we would really feel.

It would probably have to be a scenario where Scandella is on LTIR. I think we can tread water to the playoffs without him.

Otherwise, it would require moving one of Sunny/Barby or 50% retention (which is highly unlikely without making the asset cost similar to the LHDs that we thought were too expensive.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

It would probably have to be a scenario where Scandella is on LTIR. I think we can tread water to the playoffs without him.

Otherwise, it would require moving one of Sunny/Barby or 50% retention (which is highly unlikely without making the asset cost similar to the LHDs that we thought were too expensive.

It’s worth reiterating what I think is your underlying point- improving 3rd pairing to reduce burden on Parayko-Miko could have similar impact as upgrading from Miko on that pairing.

 

[Robb_K]

We were out on Suter because we didn't want to sign a 36 year old to a 4 year deal. We're certainly not going to sign Giordano, who'll be 39 before the start of next season, to a 3 year deal.

I didn't realise Giordano was so old.I thought he is 34, and should have made the re-signing for 2 years. And yes, I meant to offer about Scandella's amount.

 

[Brian39]

It’s worth reiterating what I think is your underlying point- improving 3rd pairing to reduce burden on Parayko-Miko could have similar impact as upgrading from Miko on that pairing.

That is absolutely my underlying line of thought.

If you can't upgrade Mikkola, then make the 3rd pair good enough that they can effectively take on much of the burden Mikkola-Parayko are currently shouldering. Right now Mikkola/Parayko are handling a top 5-10 hardest workload in the league. They are being deployed like an elite shutdown pair. Krug-Faulk are being deployed like a sheltered 2nd pair and then the 3rd pair is being used as an average 3rd pair.

One way to address the defensive issues is to upgrade Parayko's partner to a guy who's good enough to be half of a true elite shutdown pair (The J-Bo role in 2019). The Krug-Faulk pairing keeps the same deployment and then the 3rd pair becomes Mikkola-Bortz (or a rotation between those 2 and Scandella if you can keep him). That 3rd pair either keeps the same usage or potentially takes a smidge of Parayko's hard minutes. The overall usage stays largely the same, but Parayko's partner allows that pair to do the job vs elite lines more effectively.

Another way is to bring in that same caliber LHD upgrade, but spread the wealth a bit. Put the new guy with Faulk and give that pair some of the hard minutes Parayko is currently eating. This means Mikkola-Parayko aren't being asked to do as much and should theoretically have better results. Then Krug-Bortz (or potentiall Scandella) gets very easy minutes and Krug gets to rip apart even easier competition.

I prefer both of those options to getting a RHD, but my concept is that getting a LHD upgrade isn't the sole way to take some burden off Parayko to make the whole unit better. If the 3rd pair is suddenly a legit 2nd pair-caliber unit, then you can better set up every pair for success.

We're asking too much of Parayko and way too much of Mikkola. The playoff path is loaded with elite top lines. Calgary, Minnesota, and Colorado each have a genuine claim that their top line is top 5 in the league. We haven't seen them together, but it is reasonable to believe that a Patches-Eichel-Stone line could join that conversation. Getting out of the West is only going to happen if we can shut down 2 or maybe even 3 truly elite top lines. I don't believe that Mikkola-Parayko are capable of doing that and that isn't a knock on them. If you can't rely on either of your other pairs to reliably shut down elite lines (which we haven't seen any proof of concept for at this point), then consistently getting that 1 shut down pair out there against that top line means that both guys on the pair have to be able to give you 24+ minutes of his A game every night.

I think Parayko is capable of doing it if his partner is a top/middle pair tweener. Mikkola is not, which is 100% to be expected for a guy that isn't a seasoned NHL vet or complete phenom. If we can't get such a guy to carry that burden with Parayko, then our only option to shut down elite top lines repeatedly is to spread that burden between two pairings. If we have two pairings that you feel comfortable having out there against that top line, then you can dictate the game without asking too much of Mikkola and/or Scandella. Again, ideally we get a LHD already comfortable and effective getting 23 minutes a night in all situations that can take on that burden with Parayko. But if not, getting such a guy who hapens to be right handed would at least have a similar impact to the group (albeit with a very different type of deployment).

Imagine a world where Lindholm is extended, Arizona/Philly/Columbus bide their time barring a wild overpay, Gio is suddenly the only top 4 LHD really on the market and Seattle demands a 1st and Perunovich. It's not the most likely scenario, but it is a realistic turn the market could take. We could also get to Gio as the last option if a couple teams meet asking prices on the players like Chychrun/Lindholm/Sanheim. If we reach that point, I'd rather start kicking the tires on Severson than sell multiple assets to rent Gio.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

A few 3rd pairing defenders I'd be ok with if they were Cheap enough would be Braun, Mayfield, Severson, and a couple more. Tho, If we went after Braun or Mayfield I'd still want them to kick tires of Gio or Lindholm in the offseason. Or try to get someone like Lindgren+ from the Rangers in the offseason for Tarasenko (I kinda want to see Tarasenko and St. Louis Bread Co playing together)

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

Or try to get someone like Lindgren+ from the Rangers in the offseason for Tarasenko (I kinda want to see Tarasenko and St. Louis Bread Co playing together)

That doesn't make sense to me. Why would NYR let Buch go - with the rationale of Kaako and Lafreniere needing more time and soon costing more money - only to trade assets to get a more expensive forward than Buch?

 

[bleedblue1223]

That doesn't make sense to me. Why would NYR let Buch go - with the rationale of Kaako and Lafreniere needing more time and soon costing more money - only to trade assets to get a more expensive forward than Buch?

You're thinking logically and not like a GM that traded Buchnevich for Blais and a 2nd.

 

[PocketNines]

When I asked Ranger fans earlier in the season about Tarasenko, the consensus hurdle was his 7.5M AAV in 22-23.

 

[bleedblue1223]

When I asked Ranger fans earlier in the season about Tarasenko, the consensus hurdle was his 7.5M AAV in 22-23.

Yeah, that's when Fox's massive contract kicks in and Zib gets a good raise too. They were probably expecting a decent raise for Kakko too, which won't be happening.

 

[Ranksu]

 

[AjaxManifesto]

SHUT DOWN LHD
SHUT DOWN LHD
SHUT DOWN LHD

 

[The Note]

The only thing I would outright hate is acquiring Chiarot. I would love if they manage to get Sanheim or Chychrun - or Giroux even though I know that's less of a pressing need, G has long been a favorite non-Blues player of mine - and would be relatively indifferent to a lot of the other names (Soucy, Middelton, etc.) pending price. But Chiarot would not help what ails this defense corps.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If at the end, we still have 1st, Neighbours, and Bolduc, I honestly won't be upset even if we get a guy I'm not that high on. I remember when we traded Maxim Letunov for Michalek which was a pretty pointless acquisition, but Letunov was literally nothing to us, so who cares. Sure, he was a former 2nd round pick, but we knew he had no future.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If at the end, we still have 1st, Neighbours, and Bolduc, I honestly won't be upset even if we get a guy I'm not that high on. I remember when we traded Maxim Letunov for Michalek which was a pretty pointless acquisition, but Letunov was literally nothing to us, so who cares. Sure, he was a former 2nd round pick, but we knew he had no future.

I'm fine with trading first rounders as long at it's for someone at a reasonable age (27 or younger) that immediately help the top 6 or top 4 who they plan to be here for years to come, examples being like when we got Schenn, or current targets like Sanheim or Konecny in the off-season. Bolduc and Neighbours seem closer to the NHL than we realize tho.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I'm fine with trading first rounders as long at it's for someone at a reasonable age (27 or younger) that immediately help the top 6 or top 4 who they plan to be here for years to come, examples being like when we got Schenn, or current targets like Sanheim or Konecny in the off-season. Bolduc and Neighbours seem closer to the NHL than we realize tho.

I'd add, I'm fine if we trade a first, there's just a shorter list of guys we've discussed that I'd be ok doing that with.

My main point being, if Army really wants Chiarot, and we don't give up anything of significance, I really won't care.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I'd add, I'm fine if we trade a first, there's just a shorter list of guys we've discussed that I'd be ok doing that with.

My main point being, if Army really wants Chiarot, and we don't give up anything of significance, I really won't care.

Ahhhh, my apologies, I didn't realize the context was about Chiarot. I just can't see him getting anything more than Manson did. I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd+middling prospect myself either tho.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Ahhhh, my apologies, I didn't realize the context was about Chiarot. I just can't see him getting anything more than Manson did. I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd+middling prospect myself either tho.

Or any of the others, not just Chiarot. It's more that I think we have 3 premium assets, and the rest I don't really care about. Perunovich would be higher up if we didn't have Krug, but I don't see a roster with both players on it being that successful. It's not like one of them is one of those small guys that excels defensively where you can make it work.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Why would the Blues have interest in Giroux? He plays a position where there is no need. He‘s a good player, but even if he came for free it’s not obvious how to fit him in. Spending assets on him seems like a mistake.

 

[Dr Robot]

So listening to the Marek podcast today. Friedman said or implied that Army has been working for a while to make some moves and seeing what is out there. He kind of reiterated that Doug has been trying to figure out what salary he can move out to make room.

We all think its just going to be scandella or maybe Barby/sunny that goes but im wondering if someone bigger ends up leaving.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

So listening to the Marek podcast today. Friedman said or implied that Army has been working for a while to make some moves and seeing what is out there. He kind of reiterated that Doug has been trying to figure out what salary he can move out to make room.

We all think its just going to be scandella or maybe Barby/sunny that goes but im wondering if someone bigger ends up leaving.

Interesting. Other than guys you mentioned, only guys making real $ that don't have trade protection are Parayko (whose NTC kicks in next year), ROR, Buch, Kyrou, and Thomas. Perron has partial NTC. None of those seem at all likely to be dealt.

Of guys with NTC, could be Tank if we find right dance partner (might need 3rd team) as we know he had wanted deal, but otherwise ??? Are Saad or Krug maybe unhappy? I wouldn't think so but who knows if someone has persona/family issue..