What were career expectations for Alex Ovechkin? Did he overachieve/disappoint?

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wetcoast

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Odd that you made such a long post, and put so much work into it while starting it off with a complete strawman of a premise.

I don't believe I've ever seen anyone make the purported argument - that a player should be judged only on the number of goals they score, as opposed to points. This is truly an amazing misread of most of the arguments that have been made.

This misses the point by so much it truly takes the breath away.

To the part in bold, are you even being serious here?

There have been literally hundreds of posts talking about goals and goals created as if somehow they were seperate things.

Through in the old "primary points" as if any goals are never primary points....

Ovechkin has been and will always be known as a sniper a goal scorer much like guys like rocket Richard, Bossy and Bure.

There is no shame in being known as the best, or at least in the top 3, goal scorer of all time and yes he has exceeded expectations from his draft year and that's a good thing.
 

Fantomas

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To the part in bold, are you even being serious here?

There have been literally hundreds of posts talking about goals and goals created as if somehow they were seperate things.

I don't know what you're talking about.

No one anywhere is arguing that only goals matter, but rather that valuing goals as equivalent to secondary contributions is rather absurd.
 
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wetcoast

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I don't know what you're talking about.

No one anywhere is arguing that only goals matter, but rather that valuing goals as equivalent to secondary contributions is rather absurd.

No but the goals, goals created crowd as the same time will spout off really weak secondary points and over rated defense arguments against contemporaries of Ovechkin thus creating a goals matter much more than anything else narrative.

Heck this was even the "excuse" for his Conn Smythe (scoring more goals than his teammate who had 5 more points in that playoffs)
 

Big Phil

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At the same time, Crosby is lucky to have the two Harts he's got. His two Hart seasons are nowhere near the best seasons post lockout. It's only a matter of luck that Kane/Ovechkin/Malkin/Price/Jagr/Thornton didn't have their best seasons in 07 or 14, or Sid would have zero MVPs.

I don't see how he is lucky. 2007 was a pretty top heavy year for points. There were 7 guys with 100 points at least. Thornton had 114. Brodeur and Luongo had historically great years for their standards. 2007 was not an easy year to win the Hart but Sid was the best player. I'd say a 120 point season is pretty high among Hart winners in the post lockout era. 2014 he is healthy for the first time in 4 years and he has a 104 point year compared to Getzlaf who was the next best at 87. That's some serious separation. I don't see him as lucky in any of those years. If anything he had a couple of times (at least) where he was unlucky and that would be 2013 and 2011 when he was cleaning up against the rest of the league. A couple other years where he could have won it, but those two years he was miles ahead of everyone before getting hurt.

PPG in 2011:
Crosby - 1.61
Sedin - 1.27

PPG in 2013:
Crosby - 1.56
St. Louis - 1.25

Now I am not giving the guy credit for things he didn't do, but to call him "lucky" to win two Harts, that's just not true. He has some untimely injuries in his prime that cost him some awards. I wouldn't call that lucky.
 

Voight

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He's led the league in goals seven times, and is in the conversation for an eighth...even if that doesn't come free of some warts, no one could have really expected this kind of otherworldly goal dominance...he was and is great for the league as a whole too...

He's lead the league in goals 8 times......
 

Voight

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Calling Ovi a rich man's Bobby Hull is insane. I'm not a draft guy, so I have no idea how Ovi was perceived as a prospect, but I'm sure he overachieved expectations a tiny bit at least, depending slightly on what those expectations were of course.

I guess scouts could see he would translate to the NHL game, where he could do his bodily thing. He didn't translate as well to the big rink game, and he had one of the most suspect peak demises I've ever seen, before he remodeled himself as a second incarnation of Brett Hull.

All in all post peak Ovi (2010–2020) was never an all-time great type of player as he was out-performed on the wing consistently by guys like Patrick Kane, Jamie Benn, et cetera. His Conn Smythe was also a name recognition gift.

Yea, it had nothing to do him leading the playoffs in goals and finishing second in points :facepalm:

The gap between Ovechkin's 05/06 and 14/15 is not that big. In 05/06, Ovechkin was 3rd in points (behind Thornton and Jagr) and 3rd in goals (behind Jagr again and Cheechoo, who was Thornton's creation). Both Thornton and Jagr were amazing that year, there is no shame in falling behind them, even 15 points behind.

He also did this playing Jeff Halpern. Quite impressive.
 
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Midnight Judges

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I'd say a 120 point season is pretty high among Hart winners in the post lockout era. 2014 he is healthy for the first time in 4 years and he has a 104 point year compared to Getzlaf who was the next best at 87. That's some serious separation. I don't see him as lucky in any of those years.

Sure, at first blush and utterly without context, 120 points sounds great, but Sid had 24 powerplay secondary assists (the most post-lockout) - most of which were uncontested perimeter passes. It's bizarre that people highlight these uncontested perimeter passes as if they are equal in value to goals. I'd be interested in your explanation for that. It's not a season that stacks up favorably with the best seasons of the past 15 years. Several other players had superior seasons in 05-06 and 07-08 (Jagr, Thornton, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc.). Sid is lucky none of them did it in 06-07.

Same goes for 2014 with 35 secondary assists. Again you are leaving out a lot of context. There is no need to compare Sid only to Getzlaf from the same season. There was no major change in scoring from 2012-2017 so comparing across years is perfectly legitimate. Ovechkin's 2013, Malkin's 2012, Stamkos's 2012, Ovechkin's 2015, and Kane's 2016 are all superior seasons. Again, just luck of the draw that none of them landed in 2014. Sid was also lucky that Malkin, Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares were all dealing with injuries in 2014 - which is the only reason you can claim the "separation" argument, which is also largely arbitrary.

The main things propping up these seasons - the things you cited - are largely arbitrary and flimsy. You argue that Crosby could have had more Harts. He just as easily could have had none.
 
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Zuluss

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I am not one to reward someone for injuries or "what ifs". I am just saying that despite the injuries Crosby and Ovechkin still have the same amount of points and when it comes to PPG it is Crosby winning this noticeably.

Every time Ovechkin and Crosby were close in points (and Crosby was often slightly ahead), Hart voters went Ovechkin's way in a landslide (in 05/06, 14/15, 17/18, to a smaller extent in 09/10, 12/13).

By the same logic, if Ovechkin is slightly ahead in career points, then he has contributed significantly more during his career.

The edge Crosby has in ppg probably suggests that it could have gone the other way had Crosby stayed healthy, but Ovechkin has had a better career.
 

Nathaniel Skywalker

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Sure, at first blush and utterly without context, 120 points sounds great, but Sid had 24 powerplay secondary assists (the most post-lockout) - most of which were uncontested perimeter passes. It's bizarre that people highlight these uncontested perimeter passes as if they are equal in value to goals. I'd be interested in your explanation for that. It's not a season that stacks up favorably with the best seasons of the past 15 years. Several other players had superior seasons in 05-06 and 07-08 (Jagr, Thornton, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc.). Sid is lucky none of them did it in 06-07.

Same goes for 2014 with 35 secondary assists. Again you are leaving out a lot of context. There is no need to compare Sid only to Getzlaf from the same season. There was no major change in scoring from 2012-2017 so comparing across years is perfectly legitimate. Ovechkin's 2013, Malkin's 2012, Stamkos's 2012, Ovechkin's 2015, and Kane's 2016 are all superior seasons. Again, just luck of the draw that none of them landed in 2014. Sid was also lucky that Malkin, Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares were all dealing with injuries in 2014 - which is the only reason you can claim the "separation" argument, which is also largely arbitrary.

The main things propping up these seasons - the things you cited - are largely arbitrary and flimsy. You argue that Crosby could have had more Harts. He just as easily could have had none.
Your bashing Crosby’s 2007 hart when the second place score Thornton had 114 points. You are aware that 114 is more points than ovechkin has ever scored in a season... that right there puts your argument to the gutter. Also winning mvp in a year when your 17 points up for the ross is anything but lucky. Crosby is (unlucky) to just gave two harts. Everyone knows he’d have at least 4 without untimely injuries.
 

wetcoast

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Yea, it had nothing to do him leading the playoffs in goals and finishing second in points :facepalm:

The narrative that whole playoff was about Ovi the captain getting the monkey (unfairly placed there in some ways) off his back.

The fact of the matter is that Kuz had 5 more points than Ovechkin that year and was also extremely Conn smythe worthy.

In fact 6 position players had very good to excellent performances that year, which often gets overlooked.



He also did this playing Jeff Halpern. Quite impressive.

Yes that first year was extremely impressive but let's be consistent on team composition, or supporting players throughout his career then shall we.

For most of his career, and especially the last 8 or 9 years Ovi has had an excellent supporting cast in his adventures.

That first year is a huge aberration from most of his career in that sense.
 

wetcoast

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Sure, at first blush and utterly without context, 120 points sounds great, but Sid had 24 powerplay secondary assists (the most post-lockout) - most of which were uncontested perimeter passes. It's bizarre that people highlight these uncontested perimeter passes as if they are equal in value to goals. I'd be interested in your explanation for that. It's not a season that stacks up favorably with the best seasons of the past 15 years. Several other players had superior seasons in 05-06 and 07-08 (Jagr, Thornton, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc.). Sid is lucky none of them did it in 06-07.

Same goes for 2014 with 35 secondary assists. Again you are leaving out a lot of context. There is no need to compare Sid only to Getzlaf from the same season. There was no major change in scoring from 2012-2017 so comparing across years is perfectly legitimate. Ovechkin's 2013, Malkin's 2012, Stamkos's 2012, Ovechkin's 2015, and Kane's 2016 are all superior seasons. Again, just luck of the draw that none of them landed in 2014. Sid was also lucky that Malkin, Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares were all dealing with injuries in 2014 - which is the only reason you can claim the "separation" argument, which is also largely arbitrary.

The main things propping up these seasons - the things you cited - are largely arbitrary and flimsy. You argue that Crosby could have had more Harts. He just as easily could have had none.


No idea exactly why you are bringing this up as Ovi wasn't in Hart contention in either 07 or 14 and your analysis is specifically looking at only a tiny picture and not the whole one. (as Usual)
 

Zuluss

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Your bashing Crosby’s 2007 hart when the second place score Thornton had 114 points. You are aware that 114 is more points than ovechkin has ever scored in a season... that right there puts your argument to the gutter. Also winning mvp in a year when your 17 points up for the ross is anything but lucky. Crosby is (unlucky) to just gave two harts. Everyone knows he’d have at least 4 without untimely injuries.

I have just arranged all post-lockout seasons on Art Ross winner % lead over #10 in points.
Crosby's 2013/14 Art Ross falls exactly in the middle (#7 with 32% lead).
Crosby's 2006/07 Art Ross falls towards the end of the list (#11 with 26% lead).

I also looked at % leads of the Art Ross runner-up and found three leads that were better than at least Crosby's 2006/07 - Jagr 2005/06 (32%), Ovechkin 2009/10 (27%), and funnily enough, MSL 2010/11 (29%). Also close is Malkin 2007/08 (25%). Oh wait, even Perry in 2010/11 had a better lead over #10 in points (27%) than Crosby did in 2006/07.

I am pretty sure the results will stay if I replace leads over #10 with leads over #20 or something similar (though Perry's and MSL's leads may fall a bit behind).
There are also other reasons to take Crosby's 2006/07 and 2013/14 with a grain of salt: in 2006, 51% of his points were from PP and he was not even top10 in goals; in 2013/14, 1/3 of his points were 2nd assists (and he was in a 4-way tie for 1st in the league in primary points).
So it is actually a fact that Crosby's Art Rosses and Hart he did win were not all that good. The Art Rosses and Harts he did not win (in 10/11, 11/12, 12/13) could have been better, but they did not happen.
 

Zuluss

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To bring the thread back on topic a bit, surely Ovechkin did not disappoint based on his draft forecast. Nobody can reasonably expect to draft the best goal-scorer ever and a guy with the most impressive peak in the surrounding 20 years.

The good thing about Ovechkin is that he keeps beating expectations. Even 5 years ago, when Ovechkin has already put his mid-career slump behind him and had 4 goal-scoring titles under his belt, I did not really expect him to catch Bobby Hull - and look, Ovechkin has already surpassed Bobby Hull's goal-scoring title count and may add another one. I clearly did not expect him to win the goal-scoring title going into this season - he is old and he looked mortal the past two years, but right now he looks very good in the goal-scoring race.

Likewise, 4-5 years ago I did not really expect Ovechkin to pass Gordie Howe's mark of career goals - and now it seems like a relatively safe bet that he would. I do not really expect Ovechkin to beat Gretzky in career goals, my current over/under for Ovechkin's career goals would be something like 840-850, but I cannot deny that the chances of Ovechkin catching Gretzky in career goals become higher with every season.

I can go on and on about similar things and accomplishments - following Ovechkin's career has been a blessing. I will probably conclude by saying it is not only about goals. Despite his age, Ovechkin is still getting a lot of attention in All-star and Hart voting, just last season he took 12.5% of Hart vote as a 33-year-old. Not too many forwards who were not late bloomers did that - the list will probably be shorter than 10 names.
 

Big Phil

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Sure, at first blush and utterly without context, 120 points sounds great, but Sid had 24 powerplay secondary assists (the most post-lockout) - most of which were uncontested perimeter passes. It's bizarre that people highlight these uncontested perimeter passes as if they are equal in value to goals. I'd be interested in your explanation for that. It's not a season that stacks up favorably with the best seasons of the past 15 years. Several other players had superior seasons in 05-06 and 07-08 (Jagr, Thornton, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc.). Sid is lucky none of them did it in 06-07.

Same goes for 2014 with 35 secondary assists. Again you are leaving out a lot of context. There is no need to compare Sid only to Getzlaf from the same season. There was no major change in scoring from 2012-2017 so comparing across years is perfectly legitimate. Ovechkin's 2013, Malkin's 2012, Stamkos's 2012, Ovechkin's 2015, and Kane's 2016 are all superior seasons. Again, just luck of the draw that none of them landed in 2014. Sid was also lucky that Malkin, Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares were all dealing with injuries in 2014 - which is the only reason you can claim the "separation" argument, which is also largely arbitrary.

The main things propping up these seasons - the things you cited - are largely arbitrary and flimsy. You argue that Crosby could have had more Harts. He just as easily could have had none.

Man, that is really stretching it here. You are hanging the whole "secondary assists" thing on him? Honestly, I don't even know how to track secondary assists, nor do I even think it matters. Don't other stars have plenty of secondary assists? Stuff that comes from rebounds or even just a normal pass that leads to a good play by the receiver of the pass? In the post lockout only Thornton (twice) and then Kucherov last year have had more assists than Crosby did in 2007. Isn't it natural he ought to have a large amount of secondary assists as well? Does that not count as a good play that something you did led to a goal?

I am a little lost here though in all the seasons you mentioned that were "better" than Crosby's 2007. Ovechkin in 2013? Huh? Ovechkin didn't even have as good of a season as Crosby did that year. Stamkos in 2012? Sure 60 goals is nice, but he was on a bottom feeder of a team and was 23 points less than Crosby was in 2007. Ovechkin in 2015? What? Kane, Malkin in their best years is at least closer, especially Malkin's but there is a reason no one cracked 120 points other than Sid since 1999 (until Kucherov last year).

By the way, let's keep one thing in mind, secondary passes or not, every player that ever steps on the ice has as much of an opportunity to get them as the next, and that includes Ovechkin. The truth of the matter is that while Ovechkin is a better goal scorer he is not a better goal scorer than Crosby more than he is a better playmaker than Ovechkin.

I'm sorry, but "lucky" is not a word I use to describe Crosby. He has had three years (2008, 2011, 2013) where he was leading the NHL in points before he went down with an injury. That's not a lot of luck.

Every time Ovechkin and Crosby were close in points (and Crosby was often slightly ahead), Hart voters went Ovechkin's way in a landslide (in 05/06, 14/15, 17/18, to a smaller extent in 09/10, 12/13).

By the same logic, if Ovechkin is slightly ahead in career points, then he has contributed significantly more during his career.

The edge Crosby has in ppg probably suggests that it could have gone the other way had Crosby stayed healthy, but Ovechkin has had a better career.

They have the same point totals but Crosby doing it in far less games. If we are nitpicking and combing everything over with these two great players we can't ignore this sort of stuff. If you give Ovechkin the edge in physical play and Crosby the edge in defensive play then perhaps those are both a wash, but the offense has favoured Crosby. Remember, this guy has also led the NHL in goals twice himself.

Take a year like, say, in 2018. Why didn't Crosby get the same amount of Hart love? Probably because Malkin had 98 points that year and took a lot of those potential votes. He's had this happen before with Malkin, it is what it is.

To be honest I am not a big proponent of tearing down either one of Crosby or Ovechkin while comparing them, I am just happy to be seeing the entirety of both of their careers. So it brings me no joy to see a generational guy like Ovechkin a slight notch, in my opinion, below Sid. But let's be honest here, does Ovechkin not swap careers with Crosby in a heartbeat?
 

Midnight Judges

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The history forum has a really hard time saying things that are true when it comes to Ovechkin. I can only speculate as to the reasons.

I'll give this guy a night to fact check himself.
 
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Big Phil

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The history forum has a really hard time saying things that are true when it comes to Ovechkin. I can only speculate as to the reasons.

I'll give this guy a night to fact check himself.

I've seen his whole career, what is it that people aren't saying about him? I think the guy gets his due. Are you thinking it is the Russian vs. Canadian thing? I think that is more of a main board thing, this board tends to be a little more polished with hockey knowledge than that.
 

The Panther

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The history forum has a really hard time saying things that are true when it comes to Ovechkin. I can only speculate as to the reasons.
I agree in as much as this thread exists. We can have a discussion about "overachieving", but we cannot have any serious discussion about "disappointment". Yeesh!
 

vippe

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I am not one to reward someone for injuries or "what ifs". I am just saying that despite the injuries Crosby and Ovechkin still have the same amount of points and when it comes to PPG it is Crosby winning this noticeably.

But that's exactly what you did.

He had injuries in 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2013 that possibly cost him a Hart/Art Ross. In the case of 2011 and 2013 it definitely cost him this.

I'm not saying Crosby hasnt the better PPG, clearly that's the case. I was just questioning the fact that you made all the arguments pro-crosby but didnt bother with anything outside of physicality for OV.
 
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Zuluss

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They have the same point totals but Crosby doing it in far less games.

So now we are supposed to give Crosby credit for missing games?

I will re-state what I have already said in this thread: voters always put Ovechkin over several players with more points, be it Hart voting or All-star voting, and Crosby is no exception to the rule. I would think the reason why is OV's goal-scoring prowess, but size and physical play may also contribute.

Anyway, valuing Ovechkin by his points is undervaluing him. If Ovechkin is tied in points with Crosby, then he has accomplished more - yes, in terms of offense. A differential of 240 career goals (and counting) is hard to ignore.

Take a year like, say, in 2018. Why didn't Crosby get the same amount of Hart love? Probably because Malkin had 98 points that year and took a lot of those potential votes.

Malkin had only 5.9% and was on almost the same number of ballots as Ovechkin. I do not think this is the explanation for Crosby's lone 5th-place vote in 2017/18.

Anyway, this is only one year, four more years are waiting in the sidelines for a different explanation (Malkin was not even in the league in 05/06 and he missed significant time and was not playing well in 14/15, 09/10, 12/13). Add to that all those years when Ovechkin was voted higher than several other players with a greater amount of points.

Rather than make up twenty different explanations why every example is an anomaly, why not grab a natural and all-encompassing explanation than goals and goal-scoring titles matter and Ovechkin is therefore more than what his points would suggest?
 
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daver

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Is there a consensus on what the historical expectations of OV were? Seems like he was a goalscorer through and through as a prospect so his career seems like it played out in that regard. Surely challenging for GOAT goalscorer is an over achievement.

Given his lack of team success relative to his individual success one could say that was a disappointment but should we expect a goalscoring winger to influence his team's chances in the way a franchise center can? Bobby Hull comes to mind in that regard.

Potentially being rated behind Crosby all-time cannot be looked at as a disappointment when potentially only four players in history may be comfortably still ahead of Crosby when it is call said and done.
 

daver

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Crosby has had more team success 100%, he hasn't had a better individual career. If you think he has you really need to explain what you are looking at to determine this.

Just regular season alone:

The most Top 3 Art Ross finishes/Hart nominations other than Wayne and Howe in NHL history.

And the seasons where Crosby was objectively better despite not winning the Art Ross while OV was winning the Rocket:

12/13
15/16
18/19
 

Midnight Judges

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Just regular season alone:

The most Top 3 Art Ross finishes/Hart nominations other than Wayne and Howe in NHL history.

And the seasons where Crosby was objectively better despite not winning the Art Ross while OV was winning the Rocket:

12/13
15/16
18/19

Crosby was not objectively better in any of those seasons.
 
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