What were career expectations for Alex Ovechkin? Did he overachieve/disappoint?

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Zuluss

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I might actually find goals vs assists debate interesting if the motives behind the goals crowd weren’t so wholly transparent.

Since they are wholly transparent, it just comes across as a last ditch effort.

It is a fact that Ovechkin finishes higher in Hart voting and All-star voting than in points. Here is the history since 2012/13, arranged in chronological order

Ovechkin's rank in points at his wing (RW in 12/13 and 13/14)
2, 3, 2, 4, 3, 3, 4
Ovechkin's All-star team placements in the same seasons
1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1

Ovechkin's point finishes
3, 8, 4, 15, 20, 11, 15
Ovechkin's Hart voting placements (* for Caps missing playoffs, ** for the season when he got a single vote)
1, -*, 2, 6, 12**, 9, 7

It is a fact that voters place Ovechkin over players with more points year in, year out. Goals seem to be an obvious explanation why, but other explanations (hits, physical presence) are also welcome.

What is a clearly wrong way to evaluate Ovechkin though is the approach "look at his point placements, and he is not even good defensively, so he is worse than that, and bringing up goals is just double-dipping".

Ovechkin is nowhere near Bourque in consistency. Ovechkin may have some of the worst consistency outside of scoring goals than most all time greats.

I am not even sure why this consistency thing is valuable.
I understand why consecutive seasons of peak play are valuable - they show that the peak was genuine ability and not just one lucky season when the stars aligned.
Other than that, it seems to me that it is just the total body of work that matters, and random permutations of seasons in a player's record should not matter at all. Why having, say, 10 top5 finishes in goals in a row would be better than having 5 in a row and then, after a down season, another 5? Or having 4 consecutive, then a down season, then 3, then a down season, then another 3?

The playoff advantage is Crosby. Interantionally it is Crosby. He's had more elite years, and is a better player now and has been better for a while now. First 5 or so years of their career you could say they were 1a) and 1b) and it alternated. Now though, it's been Crosby for a while.

They still alternate, though. Ovechkin finished higher in Hart voting in 12/13, 14/15, 17/18. He is currently having a better year after Crosby was better last season. So it is almost as if they are purposefully taking turns.

As for elite seasons, Crosby has 12 MVP nominations (7 Hart, 5 Lindsay), Ovechkin has 11 (6 Lindsay, 5 Hart). I guess you can count an extra season for Crosby, but 7-6 or 12-11 split comes across as thin margin that may or may not be significant depending on how strong those seasons were.
If you look at seasons with 5% of Hart vote or more, Ovechkin actually closes the gap and it is 9-8 now, with a possibility of even at the end of this season. If you look at top10 finishes in Hart voting, it is in fact even, and this season Ovechkin most likely takes the lead.

I think it is obvious he's had the better career, which is no slight to Ovechkin.

Ovechkin has higher peak and more historical significance, and that is never going to change.
 
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KoozNetsOff 92

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OV has fallen from his peak and hasn't been "visually impressive" for 10 years yet in that time still managed to win a hart, another hart runner up, multiple lindsay nominations, a smythe, 3x 1st AST, 4x 2nd AST, 6x rocket, 4x top 10 pt finishes, etc. That alone is already a better career than 95% of players in history but yeah lol.

As for him being an "okay" playoff performer.. #1 in playoff GPG (50+ GP) and #3 in PPG for his era is just okay? 9th in playoff GPG all time (among players with 100+ GP) is just okay?

Hilarious the bs some people still come up with to downgrade OV. And it's always the same biased people lol.
 
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K Fleur

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It is a fact that Ovechkin finishes higher in Hart voting and All-star voting than in points. Here is the history since 2012/13, arranged in chronological order

Ovechkin's rank in points at his wing (RW in 12/13 and 13/14)
2, 3, 2, 4, 3, 3, 4
Ovechkin's All-star team placements in the same seasons
1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1

Ovechkin's point finishes
3, 8, 4, 15, 20, 11, 5
Ovechkin's Hart voting placements (* for Caps missing playoffs, ** for the season when he got a single vote)
1, -*, 2, 6, 12**, 9, 7

It is a fact that voters place Ovechkin over players with more points year in, year out. Goals seem to be an obvious explanation why, but other explanations (hits, physical presence) are also welcome.

What is a clearly wrong way to evaluate Ovechkin though is the approach "look at his point placements, and he is not even good defensively, so he is worse than that, and bringing up goals is just double-dipping".

As if right on cue...

Just need a Midnight Judges one liner to round out this show.
 
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KoozNetsOff 92

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Some say OV fell off after his peak, but he still won harts, rockets, multiple ASTs, etc. Did Guy Lafleur even play after 1980? Because if he did he played like dog shit. I would say rocket Richard fell off his peak but it wasn't that impressive to begin with. Couldn't even win a scoring title or multiple harts and definitely was never visually appealing. And he played on a dynasty in a joke league, just replace him with a James Neal type and it makes no difference!!
 
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vippe

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He hasn't? I think most of us would say he has. The whole "what if" thing with Crosby hasn't really been a thing for a few years now. He had injuries in 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2013 that possibly cost him a Hart/Art Ross. In the case of 2011 and 2013 it definitely cost him this. But he's been healthy for a number of years now. So this isn't a Lindros thing.

The two way play favours Crosby by a noticeable margin. Give Ovechkin the physical advantage of course.

They have almost the same amount of career points, but Crosby has a 1.29 PPG while Ovechkin is 1.11. The playoff advantage is Crosby. Interantionally it is Crosby. He's had more elite years, and is a better player now and has been better for a while now. First 5 or so years of their career you could say they were 1a) and 1b) and it alternated. Now though, it's been Crosby for a while.

I think it is obvious he's had the better career, which is no slight to Ovechkin.

I mean, there's nothing wrong with thinking Sid has had the better career individually as he has a very good case. But at least make a fair comparison and include feats for both players instead of just one.

The first 5 years of their careers it was not 1a and 1b. It really didnt alternate much, Ovechkin was the better player between the two outside of Crosbys Hart year.
Heck Malkin was even the better Penguin 2 of those 5 seasons.

Clearly Sid is a much better and more responsible defensive player no argument there. Though also a center which by default means he has more responsibility in that department.

You give Sid points for being injured and missing tim, but ignores to give points for Ovechkins ability to stay healthy despite being one of the most physical players in the league to boot.
Ovechkin also happens to one of the best goal scorers of all time, winning 8 Rockets and is going to top 800 goals, possibly much more than that which is going to be the biggest achievement between both players.

There's good cases to be made for both players.
 

K Fleur

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Some say OV fell off after his peak, but he still won harts, rockets, multiple ASTs, etc. Did Guy Lafleur even play after 1980? Because if he did he played like dog ****. I would say rocket Richard fell off his peak but it wasn't that impressive to begin with. Couldn't even win a scoring title or multiple harts and definitely was never visually appealing. And he played on a dynasty in a joke league, just replace him with a James Neal type and it makes no difference!!

Is this supposed to be satire?
 

KoozNetsOff 92

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Is this supposed to be satire?

Lol there's this one sad dude in this thread who said replace OV with James Neal and it wouldn't make a difference to the caps. Not surprising though, same dude who ranked Crosby ahead of OV for best 5 year start to a career because "playoffs" (I don't agree, but acceptable argument) but then also ranked McDavid ahead of OV despite him playing 2 playoff series.. Sad really lol.
 
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Fantomas

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I mean, there's nothing wrong with thinking Sid has had the better career individually as he has a very good case. But at least make a fair comparison and include feats for both players instead of just one.

The first 5 years of their careers it was not 1a and 1b. It really didnt alternate much, Ovechkin was the better player between the two outside of Crosbys Hart year.
Heck Malkin was even the better Penguin 2 of those 5 seasons.

Clearly Sid is a much better and more responsible defensive player no argument there. Though also a center which by default means he has more responsibility in that department.

You give Sid points for being injured and missing tim, but ignores to give points for Ovechkins ability to stay healthy despite being one of the most physical players in the league to boot.
Ovechkin also happens to one of the best goal scorers of all time, winning 8 Rockets and is going to top 800 goals, possibly much more than that which is going to be the biggest achievement between both players.

There's good cases to be made for both players.

Wow, the "goals crowd's transparent agenda" of *squints* making completely reasonable points in the face of blatant homerism is really rearing its ugly head!
 
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plusandminus

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Not sure about of course, a player is has great that he help a team outscore the opposition.

Is scoring a lot of goal make you of course great ? Great scorer for sure, but great in a all time sense hockey player is still a question.

Why the Capitals get often outscored with Oveckin on the ice while being one of the best team on the league when he is on the bench ?

We can take 3 goal scoring title season in a row sample to show how extreme it can get.

2013 short season to the 2014-2015 season included, all even strenght situations, 207 games played for Ovechkin.

The Capitals during that time frame

GF by 60 minutes: 2.38
GA by 60 minutes: 2.267
GF/GA: 51.21%


When Ovechkin was on the ice:
GF by 60 minutes: 2.73
GA by 60 minutes: 2.91
GF/GA: 48.40%
(that bottom of the league, Islanders 48.37% of that era)

Without Ovechkin:
GF by 60 minutes: 2.22
GA by 60 minutes: 1.976
GF/GA: 53%
(Montreal-Penguins level of that era)

Would it be impossible to win the Rocket Richard and not be that good of an addition to a team ? Even be a negative one, that you create more goal against than you create for (if you create that also stay a question) even if you score the most goal in the league ?

Is there any other case of players, use with the most Offensive faceoff start on their teams and not trying to shut down the opposition best lines, normal PDO, large sample of games playing that at an all time great level have their teams having such a worst GF/GA when they are on the ice than when they are not on the ice ?

I imagine that can occur, specially over more short window when you are Mark Messier and that Gretzky is one the ice more than 50% of the time that you are not, Sakic/Forsberg, the Lidstrom facing the best line, but in Ovechkin case ?

And that seem to stay true for 2013-2014 to 2015-2016, 2014-2015 to 2016-2017, etc....

At least at even strenght, it is far from obvious, now he is an powerplay scoring machine and that need to be taken into account.

Good post.
But are EN goals excluded? They really do affect plus/minus, and it's usually the offensive players that are significantly unfavoured by it. Eliminating them likely would give significanly lower GA number for Ovechkin.

(On the other hand... Seventieslord's work may indicate Ovi would still be at least at the bottom half of the team regarding GA..?)
Anyway, EN goals usually do significantly impact stats (imho usually in an "unwanted" way).


By the way, Ovechkin has led the league 11 times in shots taken, also finishing 2, 3, 3 and 5 in his other four seasons in the NHL.
Obviously his style of play is much about shooting, and the combination of taking many shots and shooting well, results in many goals.
He is also good at positioning himself in order to shoot from a setup by e.g. Backstrom, as well as being good himself with moving with the puck (creating scoring chances for himself).

I would say that Ovie's style of play, is pretty much designed for scoring many goals. Doesn't Washington's play when Ovie is on the ice focus much on him getting an open spot, and someone trying to set him up?
Of course it's probably wise to let such a gifted goal scorer focus on that.
Maybe he could even be considered a bit of a "role player"? (Just like Holmstrom was good at screaning, Draper and Maltby great at PK, Lehtinen great at taking defensive responsibility...)

Part of my point is that I think hockey is very much about roles.
As some have pointed out, scoring goals is his specialty. Perhaps he's more or less allowed to go "all in".

Had he adopted other roles, he may not have scored as many goals. Just like some here have suggested.
What if some of the other great goal scorers, that couldn't go "all in" the same way due to accepting other responsibilities too, were allowed to go "all in"?
What about teams/lines with two great scorers instead sharing the goals more between them?

Here is why it's so important to take an overall approach. If MadLuke's (and Seventieslord's) stats lasts when ES goals are eliminated, the stats might indeed portrait Ovie as not having the "net value" for his team that other stars have.

I also think that how many goals a player scores is a bit "uninteresting". Wouldn't points be much more interesting? Does it really matter who scores the goal, and who sets it up, as long as the team scores?
(I've heard people, perhaps Avs fans who wanted Peter Forsberg to shoot more, who thought Forsberg could be a 50 goal scorer if he would focus more on trying to score goals. But IF true, which it might not be, would 50+50 pts necessarily be of more value than 30+70?)


Some impressions from watching Ovie play internationally...
The commentators (Swedish) usually commented upon him not really contributing much to the overall play by the team. Most of the time Ovie actually seemed to hurt his team, often by not working very hard when his team was not in possession of the puck. A guy like Datsyuk was usually considered having a far higher overall "net value" for Russia. Then Ovie would score an important goal, which of course helped his team a lot. But as an overall "net value" player, he wasn't usually considered the best, or top-3, player on his team. (My hockey memory has gotten a bit bad these days, so correct me if I'm wrong.)

Regarding the subject line of the thread... I don't think people should be disappointed because he "only" has won 1 Stanley Cup, 1 Smythe, a few Harts and Pearsons, 8 Richards, 1 Art Ross, a Calder, lots of 1st ASTs... It could have been worse.
...Although... Maybe some people will for a long time forward wonder if he could have had even more team success if replacing 10 goals per season with better play when his team didn't have the puck.

Edit: A real life example... Playing floorball (similar to hockey), we were a group of players who used to divide players randomly into which team to play for. Fact is, every player played about as much with and against every other player. One player stood out in goalscoring. However, his team's lost all 5 games, and the guy had the poorest +/- of all guys. So in reality, scoring many goals does not necessarily indicate team success or that the player contributes a good "net value". ...Although fact also is that Ovie of course won Smythe, Harts, etc, which of course indicates that in his case, he likely shoudn't apply to that example.)
 
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MadLuke

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Good post.
But are EN goals excluded? They really do affect plus/minus, and it's usually the offensive players that are significantly unfavoured by it. Eliminating them likely would give significanly lower GA number for Ovechki

They were including but favored Ovechkin quite a bit in some of those sample (more goal for than again in empty net situation, I imagine that rare for an offensive player)
 

Fantomas

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My problems with Ovi are really only with the way certain people have a tendency to overrate him and his contributions. I don't hate any player, but I do hate seeing players drastically overrated or underrated, and if there are people thinking that breaking the all-time career regular season goals record suddenly makes a player better than Mario Lemieux and the big-4 becomes a big-5, then we have a problem.

First of all, the idea that we should judge a player based on the number of goals they score, and not the number of total points, is flawed.

Odd that you made such a long post, and put so much work into it while starting it off with a complete strawman of a premise.

I don't believe I've ever seen anyone make the purported argument - that a player should be judged only on the number of goals they score, as opposed to points. This is truly an amazing misread of most of the arguments that have been made.

This misses the point by so much it truly takes the breath away.
 
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Midnight Judges

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He hasn't? I think most of us would say he has. The whole "what if" thing with Crosby hasn't really been a thing for a few years now. He had injuries in 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2013 that possibly cost him a Hart/Art Ross. In the case of 2011 and 2013 it definitely cost him this. But he's been healthy for a number of years now. So this isn't a Lindros thing.

At the same time, Crosby is lucky to have the two Harts he's got. His two Hart seasons are nowhere near the best seasons post lockout. It's only a matter of luck that Kane/Ovechkin/Malkin/Price/Jagr/Thornton didn't have their best seasons in 07 or 14, or Sid would have zero MVPs.
 

Nathaniel Skywalker

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At the same time, Crosby is lucky to have the two Harts he's got. His two Hart seasons are nowhere near the best seasons post lockout. It's only a matter of luck that Kane/Ovechkin/Malkin/Price/Jagr/Thornton didn't have their best seasons in 07 or 14, or Sid would have zero MVPs.
Lmao. Dude do you know what you write? And thank you for gifting Crosby the 2013 hart then since ovechkin doesn’t sniff it if Crosby was healthy
 

Nathaniel Skywalker

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Top 5 hart finishes
Crosby 1,1,2,2,2,2,3,5
Ovechkin 1,1,1,2,2

Crosby with 3 more top 5’s and in b4 you use the weakest hart win post 2005 which was 2013
 

BenchBrawl

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I reiterate my position; give the caps an inferior sniper from 2011 to 2020 and their team results wouldn't be significantly affected. I'd add the caveat of 2015 however, as Ovechkin was better that year even if it doesn't show up in his statistics.
 

MadLuke

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BenchBrawl

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2015-2016 was Ovechkin best GF% in is career and best SF since is peak.

Alex Ovechkin - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

Him and Backstrom do look like they were the 2 best even strength player that year, no special offensive zone start treatment either:
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

I meant 2014-2015, not 2015-2016

This is backed by Hart voting, Ovechkin finished 2nd to Price in 2014-2015. It was his only year since 2010 where he was really a driving force. His shortened-season 2013 Hart was overrated.

In fairness, he finished 6th and got significant votes in 2015-2016, so maybe he was still a driving force but I don't remember it like that in any significant way. His 2014-2015 season I recall was special compared to his surrounding seasons. You could feel the buzz around him that he was pushing his team forward. Unfortunately they fell flat in the playoffs. It was also the only post-peak year (except the shortened 2013 season) where he was an Art Ross contender, the year Jamie Benn won with 87 points (Ovy had 81).

No doubt 2014-2015 was the 4th best year of his career, by a large gap over whichever is his 5th.
 
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BenchBrawl

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Lol there's this one sad dude in this thread who said replace OV with James Neal and it wouldn't make a difference to the caps. Not surprising though, same dude who ranked Crosby ahead of OV for best 5 year start to a career because "playoffs" (I don't agree, but acceptable argument) but then also ranked McDavid ahead of OV despite him playing 2 playoff series.. Sad really lol.

I ranked McDavid over Ovechkin because McDavid was more consistent. Ovechkin had an off-year in his sophomore based on his standards. Mcdavid had no off-year as of yet. It was hair-splitting, both are almost dead equal.

His rookie seaosn was not an off year, he was like 3rd in PPG but got injured.

That said, staying healthy is important and I could just as easily given it to Ovy. No problem there.
 

Zuluss

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Top 5 hart finishes
Crosby 1,1,2,2,2,2,3,5
Ovechkin 1,1,1,2,2

Crosby with 3 more top 5’s and in b4 you use the weakest hart win post 2005 which was 2013

Any reason to list Crosby's 5th-place finish with 8.8% of the vote and not to list Ovechkin's 6th-place finish with 14.1% of the vote and Ovechkin's 7th-place finish with 12.5% (and I am not even mentioning another 6th-place finish with 8.5% of the vote)?

It is also telling that Ovechkin has more Lindsay nominations than Crosby.
In 2005/06, Ovechkin was snubbed in Hart voting because Caps did not make playoffs (which was actually hard to expect from a team that was a lottery team a season before).
In 2015/16, players voted Benn and Holtby over Crosby (who somehow finished 2nd in Hart voting).
In 2018/19, the only reason Crosby got nominated for Hart (and finished 2nd ahead of McDavid, good grief!) was that McDavid and Kane lost votes because they were on non-playoff teams. The players got it right again and did not nominate Crosby for Lindsay.

So two of the 2s Crosby has on your list are not at all similar to the 2s Ovechkin has - and they are more like Ovechkin's 6th-place finish from 2005/06 you chose to omit.
 

Zuluss

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No doubt 2014-2015 was the 4th best year of his career, by a large gap over whichever is his 5th.

The gap between Ovechkin's 05/06 and 14/15 is not that big. In 05/06, Ovechkin was 3rd in points (behind Thornton and Jagr) and 3rd in goals (behind Jagr again and Cheechoo, who was Thornton's creation). Both Thornton and Jagr were amazing that year, there is no shame in falling behind them, even 15 points behind.
 
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Big Phil

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I mean, there's nothing wrong with thinking Sid has had the better career individually as he has a very good case. But at least make a fair comparison and include feats for both players instead of just one.

The first 5 years of their careers it was not 1a and 1b. It really didnt alternate much, Ovechkin was the better player between the two outside of Crosbys Hart year.
Heck Malkin was even the better Penguin 2 of those 5 seasons.

Clearly Sid is a much better and more responsible defensive player no argument there. Though also a center which by default means he has more responsibility in that department.

You give Sid points for being injured and missing tim, but ignores to give points for Ovechkins ability to stay healthy despite being one of the most physical players in the league to boot.
Ovechkin also happens to one of the best goal scorers of all time, winning 8 Rockets and is going to top 800 goals, possibly much more than that which is going to be the biggest achievement between both players.

There's good cases to be made for both players.

I am not one to reward someone for injuries or "what ifs". I am just saying that despite the injuries Crosby and Ovechkin still have the same amount of points and when it comes to PPG it is Crosby winning this noticeably.
 

wetcoast

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Some say OV fell off after his peak, but he still won harts, rockets, multiple ASTs, etc. Did Guy Lafleur even play after 1980? Because if he did he played like dog ****. I would say rocket Richard fell off his peak but it wasn't that impressive to begin with. Couldn't even win a scoring title or multiple harts and definitely was never visually appealing. And he played on a dynasty in a joke league, just replace him with a James Neal type and it makes no difference!!

Now while I think that Maurice Richard can be over rated at times, comparing him to James Neal is simply insulting and doesn't look good on you, there are better arguments to be made here.
 

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