What were career expectations for Alex Ovechkin? Did he overachieve/disappoint?

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Crosby was not objectively better in any of those seasons.

One season he had the same amount of points in 12 less games
One season he had 14 more points
One season he had 11 more points

your so damn biased

 

[tarheelhockey]

Is there a consensus on what the historical expectations of OV were?

Maybe like, the next Bure? A very NHL-ready, highlight-friendly player who would be the offensive cornerstone for his team.

I watched Ovie get drafted in person because the draft was in Raleigh that year, and it didn't feel like any bigger of a deal than a normal #1 draft selection. Which is to say -- still a big deal, still a moment in history, but you're not thinking "I will tell my grandkids about this". Even after the obvious hype-machines like Crosby/McDavid/Lindros, I remember more pre-draft excitement about guys like Thornton, Hall, Tavares than there was around Ovechkin. Of course there are a lot of factors that go into pre-draft chatter, and not all of them have to do with the quality of the prospect. There's almost always going to be more hype around a guy who plays in the OHL and then get picked by an O6 or Canadian team, so it's hard to calibrate expectations properly in those early months.

Potentially being rated behind Crosby all-time cannot be looked at as a disappointment when potentially only four players in history may be comfortably still ahead of Crosby when it is call said and done.

IMO this has all played out like a marginally lower-grade version of the Gretzky/Lemieux argument. Homers spent 15 years trying to downgrade one or the other, and at the end of the day they made their critics look petty by both ending up in the Big 4. Crosby and Ovechkin are on an extremely similar track, just with a lower potential ceiling (they're not really challenging for #1 the way Wayne and Mario did).

 

[Voight]

The narrative that whole playoff was about Ovi the captain getting the monkey (unfairly placed there in some ways) off his back.

The fact of the matter is that Kuz had 5 more points than Ovechkin that year and was also extremely Conn smythe worthy.

In fact 6 position players had very good to excellent performances that year, which often gets overlooked..

Nobody is denying Kuz wasn't also worthy of the Smythe. But Ovy did not win it because of any sort of narrative. Justin Williams essentially won it in 2014 because of his Mr Game 7 / playoff performer narrative. Ovy lead the playoffs in goals and came 2nd in points. He won because he played great and was driving the bus for the Caps, even with Kuz's performance.

Just regular season alone:

The most Top 3 Art Ross finishes/Hart nominations other than Wayne and Howe in NHL history.

And the seasons where Crosby was objectively better despite not winning the Art Ross while OV was winning the Rocket:

12/13
15/16
18/19

Ovy has the 4th most Hart trophies of all time FWIW........

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

It was easy to see why Ovechkin was going/went 1st overall during his years before the NHL, whether you caught a glimpse of him in international tournaments or Russia. But i don’t think anyone ever expected him to potentially beat Gretzky’s goal record.

And while he was well known, playing in Russia he didn’t have these amazing stats to look at, like breaking records in the OHL or something like that. Going ~0.5 PPG at best in Russia (even though it was against men) didn’t scream ”this guy will score 100 pts in his rookie year”.

From the moment he stepped on NHL ice he’s easily exceeded all expectations.

 

[sr edler]

He won because he played great and was driving the bus for the Caps, even with Kuz's performance.

Ovi might have driven the team bus to the games (although I guess he probably didn't to that either) but he certainly didn't drive the play of his team or even of his line, the guy tap dancing all over the ice while zone-entering like a maniac and setting up guys left and right with saucer passes did just that and that's the biggest reason why he was robbed of the Smythe despite scoring a whopping number of 3 less goals than Ovechkin.

The fact that Ovi was gifted the Smythe on reputation doesn't mean he didn't have a great run. He did have a great and inspiring run, there was just a player on his team clearly more worthy of it, plus a goalie who bailed them out in the 1st round when Ovechkin was still suffering from a rough hangover after having chased goal #50 in the last game of the regular season.

 

[Voight]

It was easy to see why Ovechkin was going/went 1st overall during his years before the NHL, whether you caught a glimpse of him in international tournaments or Russia. But i don’t think anyone ever expected him to potentially beat Gretzky’s goal record.

And while he was well known, playing in Russia he didn’t have these amazing stats to look at, like breaking records in the OHL or something like that. Going ~0.5 PPG at best in Russia (even though it was against men) didn’t scream ”this guy will score 100 pts in his rookie year”.

From the moment he stepped on NHL ice he’s easily exceeded all expectations.

After this goal I knew we were really watching someone special.

Just felt like his "I've arrived" moment even though he had been playing amazing the whole season.

 

[Ivo]

He probably didn't reach the expectations that people had in 2010 for the rest of his career. But, if you are asking about expectations in 2004, he certainly did not disappoint.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

Some threads around 2003-2004 from the Prospects forum:

Ovechkin Has Talent...
#1 in 2004 - Ovechkin or Crosby??
Crosby vs. Ovechkin (WJC)
What is so good about Ovechkin?
The Official Alexander Ovechkin Thread
Kovalchuk - Ovechkin
Ovechkin and Malkin draft impressions

 

[JackSlater]

He probably didn't reach the expectations that people had in 2010 for the rest of his career. But, if you are asking about expectations in 2004, he certainly did not disappoint.

I think that Ovechkin sort of reached the 2010 expectations, or thereabouts, but in a strange way. More longevity than probably anyone would have predicted, lower peak play and most would have imagined.

 

[Voight]

"Better overall package than Kovalchuk" sounds about right. Brings much more to the table than goal scoring - and he does that much better than Kovy ever did.

 

[Midnight Judges]

One season he had the same amount of points in 12 less games
One season he had 14 more points
One season he had 11 more points

your so damn biased

*You're*

Points without context is misleading.

Ovie had:

113% more goals than Sid (that's not a typo - Ovie had more than twice as many)
39% more goals than Sid
46% more goals than Sid

 

[ImporterExporter]

*You're*

Points without context is misleading.

Ovie had:

113% more goals than Sid (that's not a typo - Ovie had more than twice as many)
39% more goals than Sid
46% more goals than Sid

Goals without context is misleading.

But of course you know that. No different that deflecting the argument that OV has enjoyed taking THOUSANDS of more shots on net (and even more at the net) than any player in the league since 2005 to "shots are only a good thing" so volume of shots from player A to B isn't worth discussing, because you know, it might mean applying the brakes on a guy who's entire career is based around a singular stat. You act like OV has scored every single one of his goals by himself and hasn't been gifted dozens, even hundreds because another player put the puck on his stick in a premium position where the goal was nearly guaranteed. Just like assists, goals are not all created equal.

Yawn.

Go ready 70's post back on page 3: It's by far the best thing anyone has posted in here.

What were career expectations for Alex Ovechkin? Did he overachieve/disappoint?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Ovi might have driven the team bus to the games (although I guess he probably didn't to that either) but he certainly didn't drive the play of his team or even of his line, the guy tap dancing all over the ice while zone-entering like a maniac and setting up guys left and right with saucer passes did just that and that's the biggest reason why he was robbed of the Smythe despite scoring a whopping number of 3 less goals than Ovechkin.

I can see why someone who didn't watch the games would get this impression, but a big part of the Caps run was physicality, and Kuzy is a zero in this regard. It was the difference maker against the Lightning in games 6 and 7. It was the defense of Ovechkin, Wilson, and Orpik hitting anyone who tried to cross center ice with the puck that resulted in those shutouts.

Ovie was also more instrumental in the clutchest of moments. 3 late third period and OT game winning goals against the Penguins:

Ovie + Backstrom
Ovie + Vrana
Ovie + Kuznetsov

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

*You're*

Points without context is misleading.

Ovie had:

113% more goals than Sid (that's not a typo - Ovie had more than twice as many)
39% more goals than Sid
46% more goals than Sid

Literally all your arguments are goals. That’s all you’ve got lol. Well that’s all ovechkin really has on Crosby so it does make sense.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

I can see why someone who didn't watch the games would get this impression, but a big part of the Caps run was physicality, and Kuzy is a zero in this regard. It was the difference maker against the Lightning in games 6 and 7. It was the defense of Ovechkin, Wilson, and Orpik hitting anyone who tried to cross center ice with the puck that resulted in those shutouts.

Ovie was also more instrumental in the clutchest of moments. 3 late third period and OT game winning goals against the Penguins:

Ovie + Backstrom
Ovie + Vrana
Ovie + Kuznetsov

Who led the finals in scoring?

 

[Midnight Judges]

No different that deflecting the argument that OV has enjoyed taking THOUSANDS of more shots on net (and even more at the net) than any player in the league since 2005 to "shots are only a good thing" so volume of shots from player A to B isn't worth discussing, because you know, it might mean applying the brakes on a guy who's entire career is based around a singular stat. You act like OV has scored every single one of his goals by himself and hasn't been gifted dozens, even hundreds because another player put the puck on his stick in a premium position where the goal was nearly guaranteed. Just like assists, goals are not all created equal.

Ovechkin's average shooting distance is routinely among the highest in the NHL, and typically substantially higher than all other leading goal scorers. Only Laine has come close, and that didn't last.

Your claim that Ovie is having goals gifted is pure nonsense.

It's the other way around: Ovechkin is gifting assists to anyone around him - which is why everyone who has ever played with him gets a bump in production: Unscreened Ovechkin scores when virtually any other player can't. Non-premium passes result in goals.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think that Ovechkin sort of reached the 2010 expectations, or thereabouts, but in a strange way. More longevity than probably anyone would have predicted, lower peak play and most would have imagined.

Yeah, this is what I find so intriguing about the past few years. Historically, you expect a player like 2010 Ovechkin to put up maybe 3 more huge seasons and then fall back into the pack until an early retirement. Instead, he's put up 8 extra-large seasons and just keeps on ticking with a seemingly indestructable body and seemingly unstoppable offensive contribution.

If I'm a Caps fan I'm a lot happier with the player we actually got, the one who's still pulling down hardware in his mid-30s, than one who would have burned brighter and then been a sputtering cap-killer by this time. Where would that organization be right now if they had a $9.5M equivalent of late career Brett Hull?

 

[Voight]

One season he had the same amount of points in 12 less games
One season he had 14 more points
One season he had 11 more points

your so damn biased

That is rich coming from you

Literally all your arguments are goals. That’s all you’ve got lol. Well that’s all ovechkin really has on Crosby so it does make sense.

Except for Hart Ttrophies & AST's......

Yeah, this is what I find so intriguing about the past few years. Historically, you expect a player like 2010 Ovechkin to put up maybe 3 more huge seasons and then fall back into the pack until an early retirement. Instead, he's put up 8 extra-large seasons and just keeps on ticking with a seemingly indestructable body and seemingly unstoppable offensive contribution.

If I'm a Caps fan I'm a lot happier with the player we actually got, the one who's still pulling down hardware in his mid-30s, than one who would have burned brighter and then been a sputtering cap-killer by this time. Where would that organization be right now if they had a $9.5M equivalent of late career Brett Hull?

We're on year 4 or 5 now of people calling him finished. After the loss to PIT in 2016 we were told he's done... same in 2017... then after winning the cup everyone thought he was going to mail it in.... this year they thought OK now that he beat Hull's record, he certainly will slow down yet here we are, halfway through the season and he's 2nd in goals, 3 behind the leader. Including back to back hat tricks before the ASG.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Goals without context is misleading.

But of course you know that. No different that deflecting the argument that OV has enjoyed taking THOUSANDS of more shots on net (and even more at the net) than any player in the league since 2005 to "shots are only a good thing" so volume of shots from player A to B isn't worth discussing, because you know, it might mean applying the brakes on a guy who's entire career is based around a singular stat. You act like OV has scored every single one of his goals by himself and hasn't been gifted dozens, even hundreds because another player put the puck on his stick in a premium position where the goal was nearly guaranteed. Just like assists, goals are not all created equal.

Yawn.

Go ready 70's post back on page 3: It's by far the best thing anyone has posted in here.

What were career expectations for Alex Ovechkin? Did he overachieve/disappoint?

I don't think Ovechkin taking so many more shots is a bad thing. It's not like a strikeout in baseball (when that unquestionably puts you closer to ending the inning, and the game). If Ovechkin can generate so many shots, good for him - I don't see that as something that hurts his team.

Let's compare him to, say, Steve Stamkos. From 2010 (his sophomore season) to last year - Stamkos was a far more efficient shooter (17.3% - by far the highest among any player with >200 goals - vs Ovechkin's 12.8%). They're surprisingly close in goals per game (0.58 vs 0.55) but Ovechkin averaged way more shots per game (4.5 vs 3.2). Clearly, Stamkos is a more efficient shooter. But ultimately Ovechkin scored more goals - I don't really care that he took a lot more shots. He's still shooting far above the NHL average (so I don't think the argument can be made that the team would be better served by having someone else shoot).

Maybe the argument is Ovechkin should shoot less, and pass more? But I don't know if that's true either. In the years where he had 400+ shots, he averaged almost 52 assists. In the years where he had 350-399 shots, he averaged 39 assists. In the years where he had under 350 shots (excluding 2013), he averaged 34 assists. So he actually gets more assists when he shoots more (perhaps because all these shots generate rebounds for his teammates?)

Besides, looking at the yearly shots leaders shows a ton of elite goal-scorers. Bobby Hull led the NHL in shots seven times (his son did so three times). Gretzky did it four times (runner-up to a defenseman a 5th time) Bure, Dionne and Esposito also did this four times. Gordie Howe did it three times (and we only have data for part of his career). Only the best goal-scorers in history are able to take a ton of shots (or else more players would do so).

 

[daver]

I don't think Ovechkin taking so many more shots is a bad thing. It's not like a strikeout in baseball (when that unquestionably puts you closer to ending the inning, and the game). If Ovechkin can generate so many shots, good for him - I don't see that as something that hurts his team.

Let's compare him to, say, Steve Stamkos. From 2010 (his sophomore season) to last year - Stamkos was a far more efficient shooter (17.3% - by far the highest among any player with >200 goals - vs Ovechkin's 12.8%). They're surprisingly close in goals per game (0.58 vs 0.55) but Ovechkin averaged way more shots per game (4.5 vs 3.2). Clearly, Stamkos is a more efficient shooter. But ultimately Ovechkin scored more goals - I don't really care that he took a lot more shots. He's still shooting far above the NHL average (so I don't think the argument can be made that the team would be better served by having someone else shoot).

Maybe the argument is Ovechkin should shoot less, and pass more? But I don't know if that's true either. In the years where he had 400+ shots, he averaged almost 52 assists. In the years where he had 350-399 shots, he averaged 39 assists. In the years where he had under 350 shots (excluding 2013), he averaged 34 assists. So he actually gets more assists when he shoots more (perhaps because all these shots generate rebounds for his teammates?)

Besides, looking at the yearly shots leaders shows a ton of elite goal-scorers. Bobby Hull led the NHL in shots seven times (his son did so three times). Gretzky did it four times (runner-up to a defenseman a 5th time) Bure, Dionne and Esposito also did this four times. Gordie Howe did it three times (and we only have data for part of his career). Only the best goal-scorers in history are able to take a ton of shots (or else more players would do so).

This is a lot more palatable a narrative than "OV has enjoyed taking THOUSANDS of more shots on net".

 

[Khomutov]

Ovechkin and Malkin are the biggest russian talents in the last 20 years and both met the expectations. Malkin could have achieved more but injuries slowed him down. Actually i never thought Ovechkin would be that good as a goalscorer, but here we are where people think he could break Gretzkys record. I don't believe he will but his durability is amazing.

 

[Khomutov]

Ovi might have driven the team bus to the games (although I guess he probably didn't to that either) but he certainly didn't drive the play of his team or even of his line, the guy tap dancing all over the ice while zone-entering like a maniac and setting up guys left and right with saucer passes did just that and that's the biggest reason why he was robbed of the Smythe despite scoring a whopping number of 3 less goals than Ovechkin.

The fact that Ovi was gifted the Smythe on reputation doesn't mean he didn't have a great run. He did have a great and inspiring run, there was just a player on his team clearly more worthy of it, plus a goalie who bailed them out in the 1st round when Ovechkin was still suffering from a rough hangover after having chased goal #50 in the last game of the regular season.

So Holtby bailed them out in the 1st round? He didn't played in the first two games because he was terrible in regular season. Ovechkin was 5+3 and scored two goals in Game 6 which decided the series.

Kuznetsov could win the Smythe too, yes. He was a monster. But Holtby was just good and like i said he wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the playoffs.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Is there a consensus on what the historical expectations of OV were? Seems like he was a goalscorer through and through as a prospect so his career seems like it played out in that regard. Surely challenging for GOAT goalscorer is an over achievement.

Maybe like, the next Bure? A very NHL-ready, highlight-friendly player who would be the offensive cornerstone for his team.

i'm pretty sure bure meets cam neely is the comparison i heard the most. which is ironic because ovechkin has only missed 29 games in his entire fifteen year career and i think something like a third of them were by suspension, including the one he'll miss tonight. through year fifteen he's got to be one of the most durable players of all time.

doesn't like to go to all-star games though.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Who led the finals in scoring?

Alex Ovechkin - tied with DSP, Nosek, and Reilly Smith.

Interestingly, Ovie's 3 goals in 5 games is only one less than Sid, except Sid played in 25 games.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Alex Ovechkin - tied with DSP, Nosek, and Reilly Smith.

Interestingly, Ovie's 3 goals in 5 games is only one less than Sid, except Sid played in 25 games.

Even more interesting is that kuzy led the finals in scoring