Speculation: What was this Teams biggest mistake?

[Gallagbi]

Giving a longer term is supposed to mean a lower AAV.

Just more proof that Dubas really messed it up.

You're spinning so badly you just proved he's even worse. Thanks.

Contacts are valued on a curve. That curve generally follows production.

Prime years are worth more. It's why a bridge deal is less costly then a max term deal in most RFA cases.

Economic climate plays a factor too, generally the cap is projected to rise and we're at a point where players and agents are fully aware of that (and we're during those negotiations).

It's not as simple as more years = less aav. It's more accurate to say prime years = prime earnings (cap%)

 

[notbias]

Jiricek was picked with a pick from Chicago in the Seth Jones trade. You don’t get the better of a team’s collection of picks for an offer sheet, you get their own pick. Columbus finished 12OA that year, so you’re looking at Denton Mateychuk.

My mistake, I was just looking at their picks or if they traded away a pick, didn't see that they received that pick... but that's interesting... so likely the return is not even worth it in this hypothetical situation.

 

[hamzarocks]

Contacts are valued on a curve. That curve generally follows production.

Prime years are worth more. It's why a bridge deal is less costly then a max term deal in most RFA cases.

Economic climate plays a factor too, generally the cap is projected to rise and we're at a point where players and agents are fully aware of that (and we're during those negotiations).

It's not as simple as more years = less aav. It's more accurate to say prime years = prime earnings (cap%)

Leafs contracts were unpredecented overpayments

The waffle guy 100% called.

More years = less AAV is the established norm

Leafs players got unpredcented overpayments so we are trying to shift goalposts to pretend they were fair at the time

The after math of those deals and our inability to make past R1 except for 1 year just shows how overpaid they were and how much their inflated contracts led to inability to add strong secondary core players to make up for an all time bad/choking core

 

[Nineteen67]

Leafs contracts were unpredecented overpayments

The waffle guy 100% called.

More years = less AAV is the established norm

Leafs players got unpredcented overpayments so we are trying to shift goalposts to pretend they were fair at the time

The after math of those deals and our inability to make past R1 except for 1 year just shows how overpaid they were and how much their inflated contracts led to inability to add strong secondary core players to make up for an all time bad/choking core

@Throw More Waffles called it day 1.

 

[Gabriel426]

Maybe Shanny should not hire Hunter and they might had drafted a Dman instead of MM, lol.

There is no ONE mistake that made the Leafs what they are today, they were multiple mistakes.

Since the team had not won anything, every member of the team can be view as a mistake even Knies, as if Dubas did trade him to the Hawks for MAF, we might had won the Cup that year.
Get my point, everything in hindsight can be a mistake due to the results. Just like if we won a Cup or two by now, every mistakes being brought up now can be view as great gamble.

Look at the Raptors Finals where Nurse was praised as a genius for playing Box 1 defence, if Raptors lost that game, he would be crucified just like how he called a timeout when the Raptors was making a run a few games later and the Raps lost that game. If they won that game, Nurse would be call a genius.

 

[Mess]

I think it was your boy who mixed up post-ELC with UFA, giving UFA amounts in RFA contracts.

But you keep spinning, editing posts, avoiding questions you don't like to answer, and generally trying to defend the indefensible. Good for a laugh if nothing else.

There is really no debate that Dubas didn't understand the difference between RFA and UFA contracts just look at the Tavares 3rd UFA contract and Marner 2nd RFA contract.

Note: 2018-19 League Year, pursuant to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Upper Limit of $79.5 million.

Dubas signs Tavares to the highest UFA contract at the time in Salary Cap World at @ $11 mil AAV X 7 years (ALL @ UFA rate) and Cap Hit% of 13.84% based on $79.5 mil Cap ceiling with $77 mil total,

Note: With the impact on sports revenue associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in North America, there has been a "flat cap" of $81.5 million from the 2019–20 through the 2022–23 seasons.

Dubas signs Marner to his 2nd contract with the first 4 X years at RFA status and buys 2 years of UFA status in years #5 and #6 with a Cap ceiling now up to $81.5 mil (+$2 mil higher prior year).

With a +$2 higher cap ceiling Marner RFA contract had a 13.37% Cap Hit vs. Tavares 3rd UFA contract at Cap Hit % of 13.84% .. The CH% difference = 0.47

If you extend the Marner contract to 7 years instead of 6 (to equal JT length) Marner would have earned $76.3 mil total vs JT at $77.0 mil .. The RFA vs. UFA contract difference = $ 700k.

Dubas thought Tavares contract was a UFA contract and Marner's contract was at RFA valued one with 4 X years of cost controalble years based on the minimum difference above on CH% and Total $$, which are really nearly identical contracts as the numbers show..

PS. Of course the Marner RFA contract was only 6 years by design because Marner wanted to line-up for a raise in year #7 and beyond when he was a full RFA.. The rumour amount now $12 mil on his next deal and if you take Marner 2nd contract $65.41 mil total (6 years ) + year #1 of new deal = 7 years to match JT length = $77.41 mil > JT at $77.0 mil total. So Marner will earn more on his RFA 2nd contract than JT will on his full UFA deal.

 

[Bomber0104]

Like the vast majority of posters have been saying in this thread...

The biggest mistake is either hiring Dubas, or the Tavares deal or the RFA contracts which ultimately are still a by-product of hiring Dubas prematurely as GM. Actually you could even lump the JT contract with the big three RFA contracts since Dubas admitted himself that those ballooned in cost because of his JT contract.

1 playoff round win in his entire tenure here is absolutely pathetic and if he were never hired and a more experienced GM either left in or hired it'd be hard to argue they could have done less than that with as much as he walked into.

Since Dubas signed Tavares, playoff round wins in the East:

Tampa: 11
Florida: 8
Carolina: 8
Boston: 6
NYI: 6
Montreal: 4
NYR: 4
Columbus: 2
Toronto: 1
Philly: 1
Jersey: 1
Washington: 0
Pittsburgh: 0
Detroit: 0
Buffalo: 0
Ottawa: 0

Nothing more to be said than that, he was absolute failure here.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

He should have moved on from his Agent after the last contract, be interesting to find out why he hasn’t. He’s made him a lot of money but he hasn’t done Marner any favours.

I heard that Ferris works for a lower % than other agents...that must be one of the reasons he keeps him around to destroy his reputation. Before he signed is 2nd contract, you used to see a lot of ads with MM in them on TV...after that contract fiasco...not so much.

 

[capfit9]

Arrogance

 

[Racer88]

Like the vast majority of posters have been saying in this thread...

The biggest mistake is either hiring Dubas, or the Tavares deal or the RFA contracts which ultimately are still a by-product of hiring Dubas prematurely as GM. Actually you could even lump the JT contract with the big three RFA contracts since Dubas admitted himself that those ballooned in cost because of his JT contract.

1 playoff round win in his entire tenure here is absolutely pathetic and if he were never hired and a more experienced GM either left in or hired it'd be hard to argue they could have done less than that with as much as he walked into.

Since Dubas signed Tavares, playoff round wins in the East:

Tampa: 11
Florida: 8
Carolina: 8
Boston: 6
NYI: 6
Montreal: 4
NYR: 4
Columbus: 2
Toronto: 1
Philly: 1
Jersey: 1
Washington: 0
Pittsburgh: 0
Detroit: 0
Buffalo: 0
Ottawa: 0

Nothing more to be said than that, he was absolute failure here.

Yup and all those teams went thru Covid flat cap just like we did so we can put that lame excuse to rest

 

[Maple Leaf]

Would have been better with a longer rebuild and building from the net out instead with skill wingers and without the dumb overpayments but what do I know

 

[keonsbitterness]

Well, a player is directly telling you, for one, but you appear to be claiming that he's a liar based on nothing. There have also been occasional reports, like the one that suggested Point rejected an offer sheet in the same year. How have you come to the conclusion that every offer sheet ever given out has been signed, and not signing is not a possibility?

I'm claiming it based on my opinion that he needed to repair his damaged image. I've yet to see you say that your long-held stance of the Marner camp negotiating only using league-wide comparables is totally wrong. The agent directly said that only internal comparables were used.

Buyout? What are you even talking about? Marner signed in camp, around the time a bunch of others signed as well. It's wild that you think anybody cared about Jeff O'Neil getting hot and bothered the previous week. The reports of offer sheets had been circulating for months prior to any of that, for the record.

Clearly I meant offer sheet. Don't be pedantic.

Yes, for a player that's not very involved in the negotiations and not interested in going the offer sheet route at that time.

Hardly any player is involved in direct negotiations, but I believe every player would want to know the details of something as significant as an offer sheet.

No, I just wanted to make sure you understood why your joke doesn't work, because if you knew, I imagine you wouldn't have attempted it.

Dekes breaking down jokes? Please tell me more. At least ten paragraphs, please.

Not only is it not logical, or consistent with reports at the time, but he wouldn't even need 6 years to see what Matthews would get anyway. He knew what Matthews was getting 4 years into his contract, and was guaranteed to know by 5 years in.

With five-year deals, both contracts would have expired June 30, 2024. How would that have guaranteed Matthews re-signed first?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm claiming it based on my opinion that he needed to repair his damaged image.

That's the same as calling Marner a liar based on nothing. You have an opinion that he needed to repair his image, and you've somehow jumped to the conclusion that he did this by answering a direct question with a lie that he could be easily caught in and blow up his entire image if untrue. A lie that wasn't told in an effective way to repair his image... that literally nobody involved disputed... that is entirely reasonable to have happen... that was widely reported months before any image damage... and that did a whole lot of nothing to repair his image. All because you don't want to accept that it happened.

I've yet to see you say that your long-held stance of the Marner camp negotiating only using league-wide comparables is totally wrong. The agent directly said that only internal comparables were used.

Ferris saying something and Marner saying something are different things, and you've gotten both what the agent said and what I've said wrong.
Matthews was a post-ELC contract, and would be reasonable to look at as one of his comparables.
Tavares would not be a reasonable comparable. I wouldn't put it past Ferris to attempt something so unusual and ridiculous, but if he attempted it, he failed regardless.

Hardly any player is involved in direct negotiations, but I believe every player would want to know the details of something as significant as an offer sheet.

We don't know what details he got, but I'm not sure why you think a player would need every single piece of information about a path he's not interested in taking at the time.

With five-year deals, both contracts would have expired June 30, 2024. How would that have guaranteed Matthews re-signed first?

He was guaranteed to know by 5 years in, because Matthews needed a new contract by then. If he really wanted to tie himself to Matthews, he wouldn't need to sign for an extra year. He'd just need to wait for Matthews to re-sign first.

 

[LeafEgo]

Tavares would not be a reasonable comparable. I wouldn't put it past Ferris to attempt something so unusual and ridiculous, but if he attempted it, he failed regardless.

Unusual and ridiculous is a good way to describe it. But apparently he did attempt it, and it worked.

"The thing I learned was once we signed John to the (AAV) we did, it lifted the lid on the entire ceiling,"
-The Dubas

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Unusual and ridiculous is a good way to describe it. But apparently he did attempt it, and it worked.

"The thing I learned was once we signed John to the (AAV) we did, it lifted the lid on the entire ceiling,"
-The Dubas

Dumbas was truly in a class of his own in terms of stupidity and incompetence. Your average HF poster has more common sense than him based on that quote alone.

 

[ToneDog]

Dumbas was truly in a class of his own in terms of stupidity and incompetence. Your average HF poster has more common sense than him based on that quote alone.

Yet Shanny was about to extend him. Shanny might even be dumber and more incompetent. Signing Willie for $11.5mx8 tells me he has no f***ing clue.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yet Shanny was about to extend him. Shanny might even be dumber and more incompetent. Signing Willie for $11.5mx8 tells me he has no f***ing clue.

I'm not sure if you're blaming Dubas or Shanny for Willy's now contract. Yes, he's overpaid, but considering that he's better than either of the players making $11M for the last several years, it's not terrible.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm not sure if you're blaming Dubas or Shanny for Willy's now contract. Yes, he's overpaid, but considering that he's better than either of the players making $11M for the last several years, it's not terrible.

Shanny is clearly the common denominator when it comes to overpaying. Clearly he has not learned anything regarding paying the 3 stooges over the past 6 years.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Unusual and ridiculous is a good way to describe it. But apparently he did attempt it, and it worked.
"The thing I learned was once we signed John to the (AAV) we did, it lifted the lid on the entire ceiling,"

It didn't work though. Marner's contract doesn't align with Tavares. It aligns with post-ELC contracts. The quote doesn't say anything about the impacts being claimed.
In fact, the report stated only one thing that directly impacted negotiations and increased an ask, and that was notably not Tavares. It was an offer sheet threat for Nylander.

 

[LeafEgo]

It didn't work though. Marner's contract doesn't align with Tavares. It aligns with post-ELC contracts. The quote doesn't say anything about the impacts being claimed.
In fact, the report stated only one thing that directly impacted negotiations and increased an ask, and that was notably not Tavares. It was an offer sheet threat for Nylander.

So your interpretation of Dubie stating that JT's contract 'lifted the ceiling' on the contracts of the three amigos to mean it 'did not lift the ceiling'?

One way or another poor Dubie is pretty confused so I'm tracking that part.

 

[Sypher04]

You truly are my hero…….. would that be at the YMCA……maybe with the village people.


We can debate Lou, Dubas and Marner all day long but none of this is even a concern if Dubas doesn’t get Tavares and that stupid contract.
Even the Covid flat cap excuse goes away

How so? Tavares contract has exactly zero bearing on what Mitch got paid. None.

 

[Sypher04]

The biggest mistake is either hiring Dubas, or the Tavares deal or the RFA contracts which ultimately are still a by-product of hiring Dubas prematurely as GM. Actually you could even lump the JT contract with the big three RFA contracts since Dubas admitted himself that those ballooned in cost because of his JT contract.

I find it pretty unbelievable that someone running a hockey team actually put that in writing. He’s “learned” entirely the wrong lesson.

If the argument were maybe we shouldn’t have signed JT because it strangled our cap space with 3 big RFAs signings coming imminently after, then sure, but arguing it ballooned the contracts of the other 3 is nonsense and always has been.

Matthews deal was always going to be higher than Tavares. Always. Because JT was not his comparable. His comp was between McDavid and Eichel.

Nylander got paid in relative alignment with his peers and ended up being a huge bargain.

The big mistake was letting marner walk him in negotiations by trying to make the argument he’s on Matthews’s level. He isnt.

Matthews gets paid exactly as he did and marner still compares himself to Matthews regardless of whether JT is here or not.

 

[Racer88]

How so? Tavares contract has exactly zero bearing on what Mitch got paid. None.

If Dubas hadn’t got Tavares for 11 million even paying Marner 11 the hope would be for a better balanced cap distribution instead of the proven failure model of 50% of the cap spent on 4 similar forwards

 

[Confucius]

The biggest mistake The Leafs make is letting hockey people (GM’s) negotiate contracts with Agents. Agents whole expertise is negotiations, that is only one of the hats a GM wears.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So your interpretation of Dubie stating that JT's contract 'lifted the ceiling' on the contracts of the three amigos to mean it 'did not lift the ceiling'?

No, but assuming he was indeed talking about contracts, lifting the ceiling on the existing internal contracts doesn't actually mean anything. It's a simple statement that the team's biggest contract got bigger. If/How/Why that impacted the entire RFA signing saga is a complete unknown, and not addressed at all, and yet people are extrapolating their own narratives about this. Meanwhile, we ignore actual information being reported about things that actually impacted the negotiations. His quote isn't even a statement about the eventual contracts. It's a statement about the early 2018 offseason, and whatever happened then was pretty irrelevant by the time the contracts were signed anyway.

Maybe we'll learn more when the book actually comes out and we're not trying to extrapolate mountains out of one vague quote, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Whatever weird shenanigans may or may not have occurred behind the scenes, we managed to lock up our core players to pretty average post-ELC contracts despite a strained relationship and offer sheet threats, and neither that nor a GM taking a rare opportunity to improve his team should be anywhere close to this list.

There could be an argument that we should have pushed harder to sign them early, but Lou is the one that set that tone, and we don't know if or how it would have been possible. And it still wouldn't come close to some of the mistakes this team made throughout the cap era anyway.