Speculation: What happens with Carey Price?

[McJedi]

I suspect Price will need to be active and play in the majority of at least 60 games. Stay healthy, stay sober and play well before teams are comfortable adding him and expecting he can be a good and reliable goalie for the balance of that contract. No one is going to think about playoffs if they don’t feel convinced he can even be available to play on a consistent basis.

I don’t believe Price is moveable until, at soonest, the summer of 2023. By then it Will have knocked another season off his deal and give him a season to rehabilitate his career and potential value.

Today, his value is decidedly negative, even at 50% because he’s not someone a GM could model as a viable NHL player.

 

[RickyLafleur]

Arguable means there's an argument for it, not that it's indisputable. Price carried a team to the finals not even 10 months ago. The same team is now competing for last in the league, with an expansion team joining. 28-30 spot drop.

This is the argument for Price. There's no other MVP in the league that would have their team fall that far from their absence. Colorado lost Mack for a while, never missed a beat. Pens made the playoffs without Crosby and Malkin before. Leafs have done fine every time Matthews is out. Goalies impact the game differently.

Habs were 18/31 last year. How did they drop 28-30 spots? He also played less than half of last season and his stats were almost identical to Allens, not to mention that cup run was a complete fluke.

 

[FerrisRox]

Habs were 18/31 last year. How did they drop 28-30 spots? He also played less than half of last season and his stats were almost identical to Allens, not to mention that cup run was a complete fluke.

A team doesn't win three playoff rounds "by fluke."

 

[The Marquis]

A team doesn't win three playoff rounds "by fluke."

Well, you can certainly point to the alignment of divisions and the playoffs last season as a "fluke". Don't forget, two Eastern Conference teams made the Stanley Cup Finals last season... pandemic or not, that is pretty much a fluke by definition. Is Montreal winning 3 rounds in a normal alignment? I'd have been more shocked than what happened if they had.

 

[Shane Diesel]

A team doesn't win three playoff rounds "by fluke."

Sure they do. Happens all the time.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Sure they do. Happens all the time.

I'm not sure fluke is the right word but I do agree that the best team doesn't always win.

 

[Toene]

I'm not sure fluke is the right word but I do agree that the best team doesn't always win.

The best team in a 7 game series always win. That's what "being the best" means, besting your opponent. That's it. The rest is pure cope.

 

[ottawa]

Habs were 18/31 last year. How did they drop 28-30 spots? He also played less than half of last season and his stats were almost identical to Allens, not to mention that cup run was a complete fluke.

Habs won by fluke?

They beat the Leafs in a best of 7, destroyed the Jets in 4 and destroyed the Knights in 6...maybe those teams should have adjusted their gameplay better to stop the "fluke"

 

[Hunter368]

I'm not sure fluke is the right word but I do agree that the best team doesn't always win.

Agreed

But also lets keep in mind the Habs team we see this season, is not the Habs team that went to the final (lucky, COVID format or otherwise). No question Price got red hot at the right time, but they are missing some key players this year from last years team & they are never coming back.......not the least of which is likely a HOF #1D aka Weber and a key top defensive center from their top 6. Hard for anyone to fairly compare the Habs of last year to the Habs of this year.......this year they've had more injuries then last year (happens with older players often & younger ones), they clearly are a worse team overall then last year (injuries factored in). Yet to be seen what happens to Price, over the last four years or so, he's been terrible during the regular season and played well in short sample sizes in the playoffs (but you have to have a goalie good enough to first get the team into the playoffs before that means anything). Add to it his age, injury history, off ice issues, huge cap hit, long term on contract, low revenues, nearly flat cap, etc...........massive question marks around Price, absolutely massive question marks. Is he going to come back after basically a year off hockey and be better, healthier, stay clear of off ice issues and more consistent then has been for the last four years? I'm very skeptical TBH.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

When he's on, he's winning games by himself. Habs barely scored 2 goals per game against Leafs iirc and not much more against Vegas. Behind any other playoff roster he would've won series even more decisively. Habs were the worst offensive team and made the finals.

Of course in hockey you always need help from a supporting cast, it's not basketball.

I dont think teams would be desperate to get him atm as his contract is gigantic. But if you're a bubble/playoff team and get offered a healthy Price at 5M, it's a no-brainer imo.

So, you're saying he's the most valuable to his team while he's on the ice and playing well? Sure, when he's at the top of his game, he's up there with Vasi as the best of the best.

But, goalies aren't valuable in trades, and Price is no different at this point. If he's available for $5.25m at next year's TDL, after playing well for 30-40 games, and the return is reasonable for a starting goalie, then I agree he could be of interest. But, the return is going to be the deciding factor in whether anything gets done. The most expensive goalie traded recently was Kuemper, who got a 1st + Timmins. Is something less than or equal to that enough to get Price at 50% retention for 3+ years?

 

[Mackiaveli]

Price was a special goalie, he isn't no more, especially with that contract, his age, and his continual health issues.

Dumb takes like this are why nobody takes Habs fans seriously it's almost as bad as people who say Price is the greatest goaltender to ever play hockey but in reverse.

The last game Carey Price played for the Montreal Canadiens was a game in which he lost in the Stanley Cup finals. The Pittsburgh Penguins were against the play-in format in 19-20 knowing that Price could easily steal a 3 or 5 game series single handedly.

His regular season numbers are uninspiring, but that's not what makes Price special.

 

[Habby4Life]

Dumb takes like this are why nobody takes Habs fans seriously it's almost as bad as people who say Price is the greatest goaltender to ever play hockey but in reverse.

View attachment 530868

The last game Carey Price played for the Montreal Canadiens was a game in which he lost in the Stanley Cup finals. The Pittsburgh Penguins were against the play-in format in 19-20 knowing that Price could easily steal a 3 or 5 game series single handedly.

His regular season numbers are uninspiring, but that's not what makes Price special.

The truth hurts. He is an injury prone aging goalie with a crap contract, one playoff run doesn’t change that.

He better days are behind him which is why it will be hard to move him without eating at least 50% of his salary. Reality is hard for fanboys.

 

[RickyLafleur]

Habs won by fluke?

They beat the Leafs in a best of 7, destroyed the Jets in 4 and destroyed the Knights in 6...maybe those teams should have adjusted their gameplay better to stop the "fluke"

The same way you shit on the sens and their run in 2017.

The irony in this post is astounding, hopefully you see it too.



Just the constant media pressure alone mostly, look at what the habs and Leafs have to put up with. It took the Leafs 11 years to rebuild and they were on the medias bad side for most of it and now that it's complete, the fans and media is full well expecting a cup. What do the Leafs do? Spend to the cap, spend 7 million on a coach, stack their front office team.

Is that something you can seriously expect the Ottawa Senators to do? Will they spend to the cap and stack their front office when the time comes or will they just (again) sell their best players and restart a rebuild? This team hasn't been serious since the pizza line despite their fluke run a few years ago.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Well, you can certainly point to the alignment of divisions and the playoffs last season as a "fluke". Don't forget, two Eastern Conference teams made the Stanley Cup Finals last season... pandemic or not, that is pretty much a fluke by definition. Is Montreal winning 3 rounds in a normal alignment? I'd have been more shocked than what happened if they had.

a fluke also involves luck - and every single championship team requires a little bit of it to win. Is TB's two cups invalidated because of the special circumstances surrounding both wins? Part of this whole narrative on HF with the habs is that they were somehow underserving, when they were basically brought into a play-in and then placed in a Canadian division because of public health decisions in Canada. Is that fluke? If Toronto had gotten by the habs, and based on their dominance in the division, gotten to the cup - would that too, have been a fluke? Or would people have looked at their record and said their triumph was no fluke ?

Montreal won it's 3rd round matchup vs a Stanley cup favourite in LV. that wasn't a fluke. They were built for the playoffs after Bergevin finally got it right after 9 years. Proof of that? he went back to his flunky, default setting this summer and the team collapsed. It is true however, they (like TB) had the shortest summer in NHL history and the most amount of injuries in NHL history as well. Is that a fluke too?

I'd say no

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

The truth hurts. He is an injury prone aging goalie with a crap contract, one playoff run doesn’t change that.

He better days are behind him which is why it will be hard to move him without eating at least 50% of his salary. Reality is hard for fanboys.

Stop with the crap. It wasn't one playoff run. He has been very good in all the playoffs he has been in.

 

[Habby4Life]

Stop with the crap. It wasn't one playoff run. He has been very good in all the playoffs he has been in.

The missed the PO 3 out of the last 6 yrs, haha. Wow, 16 PO games in the 5 yrs prior to last. Guess what, he was an average goalie the last 4-5 regular seasons.

He’s injury prone and has a crap contract, sorry it hurts but it’s reality, he isn’t worth his cap hit and he isn’t a superstar anymore.

 

[TS Quint]

Seems to me that Habs player have no better value than when they are with the Habs. They should just keep their Prices and Petrys, seems like it's working out real well.

 

[Toene]

So, you're saying he's the most valuable to his team while he's on the ice and playing well? Sure, when he's at the top of his game, he's up there with Vasi as the best of the best.

But, goalies aren't valuable in trades, and Price is no different at this point. If he's available for $5.25m at next year's TDL, after playing well for 30-40 games, and the return is reasonable for a starting goalie, then I agree he could be of interest. But, the return is going to be the deciding factor in whether anything gets done. The most expensive goalie traded recently was Kuemper, who got a 1st + Timmins. Is something less than or equal to that enough to get Price at 50% retention for 3+ years?

I'm talking about value on the ice. The market is based on so many volatile factors that I dont really think about it. I'm just saying that a team that would have room for a retained healthy Price should be interest because he automatically improves any roster except Tampa.

 

[John B]

I think Price stays in Montreal. Any trade involving him has to make sense for both sides. That is going to be very hard to do with his contract. Not only because of his cap hit and term, but also because of his NMC. Is there a team willing to take on Price without retention? Maybe, but most likely will not be a team he is willing to waive for. He probably only waives for a contender or a playoff bound team. Not many (if any) teams like that have the cap structure necessary to accommodate his contract.

If the Habs significantly retain on him the return has to be worth it. So here's how I see it.

Habs retain 50% ($5.25M) for 4 more years
- Obvioulsy there's the cap hit, which is the cost of a solid top 6 forward/top 4 defenseman/starting goalie.
- Using up a retention slot for the next 4 years. Teams only get 3 total.
- They will need a replacement starter which in the UFA market would cost $5M-$6M minimum to get anything good. So, there would be no real cap savings for the Habs.

So what does the return have to be to make all that palatable for the Habs. Answer: something that other teams would not likely give up because it wouldn't make sense for them.

I could see the Habs moving him in a couple years if his play doesn't fall off. The return wouldn't be phenomenal, but it would make more sense to move him with some retention at that time.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Why can't he?
Price prob be high to get someone to take his contract on
I mean you dont have to do anything at all if he cant play just LTIR him

 

[ottawa]

The same way you shit on the sens and their run in 2017.

Damn, you really had to dig deep for that. I've clearly changed my stance since I made that post after having watched the habs last year.

 

[Homesick]

He's definitely in Montreal next season. No team is going to take on that contract with him missing the entire season.

 

[timmy8899]

He will retire after he gets injured 5-10 games into next season

 

[McJedi]

I think Price stays in Montreal. Any trade involving him has to make sense for both sides. That is going to be very hard to do with his contract. Not only because of his cap hit and term, but also because of his NMC. Is there a team willing to take on Price without retention? Maybe, but most likely will not be a team he is willing to waive for. He probably only waives for a contender or a playoff bound team. Not many (if any) teams like that have the cap structure necessary to accommodate his contract.

If the Habs significantly retain on him the return has to be worth it. So here's how I see it.

Habs retain 50% ($5.25M) for 4 more years
- Obvioulsy there's the cap hit, which is the cost of a solid top 6 forward/top 4 defenseman/starting goalie.
- Using up a retention slot for the next 4 years. Teams only get 3 total.
- They will need a replacement starter which in the UFA market would cost $5M-$6M minimum to get anything good. So, there would be no real cap savings for the Habs.

So what does the return have to be to make all that palatable for the Habs. Answer: something that other teams would not likely give up because it wouldn't make sense for them.

I could see the Habs moving him in a couple years if his play doesn't fall off. The return wouldn't be phenomenal, but it would make more sense to move him with some retention at that time.

I’ve been telling Habs fans for years that Price is going to remain in their roster. They hate hearing it yet go nuts if you tell them he lacks trade value, even with retention the trade options are thin to nil.

So they admire Price tremendously, think he’s amazing but would love to trade him off their roster. It’s very contradictory.

Your post is correct. Price will be on the Habs for at least another season but probably several more of them.

Seattle expansion draft was their best chance to move him but their GM didn’t pull the trigger and now Price is locked into the Habs for better or worse.

 

[Lshap]

Aside from that playoff run he’s been an objectively below average goalie for most of the last half decade.

The last half decade of playoff goalies:

FYI: Price's regular season SV% during the same timeframe is .912 – pretty good, if not great.