Speculation: What happens with Carey Price?

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Enjoy spinning fairy tales. I'll stick to these:

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You mean numbers that don't mean what you want to pretend they mean, but allow you to pretend anyway?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So, how many Cups does Vasi have with the habs?

He's never played a game for the Habs, so zero. Or is this another "imagine this scenario that never happened, and then let me explain why my imaginary scenario is the only right delusion" type of thing.

 

[Lshap]

You mean numbers that don't mean what you want to pretend they mean, but allow you to pretend anyway?

Here's the difference between our arguments:

You need to write convoluted explanations to put various spins on Price's numbers.

I just have to post Price's numbers.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

You mean numbers that don't mean what you want to pretend they mean, but allow you to pretend anyway?

The lack of self-awareness from someone grasping so strongly at straws is outstanding.

The idea that you think Montreal benefited from the 20-21 season is incredible. Who benefits from playing in 3-4 different timezones, playing 25 games in 40 days when you can't even hold practice?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

The lack of self-awareness from someone grasping so strongly at straws is outstanding.

The idea that you think Montreal benefited from the 20-21 season is incredible. Who benefits from playing in 3-4 different timezones, playing 25 games in 40 days when you can't even hold practice?

He claimed Price is the best, it's his responsibility to support his claim. Just because his claim is so weak that I can poke holes in it with straws, doesn't mean I'm grasping at them. I just don't need to use anything more substantial.

And, the West had 3 time zones last year, and a lot of teams played a lot of games without being able to practice. That doesn't mean that Montreal didn't benefit from being in the smallest, weakest division. Or do you honestly want to pretend they'd have been a playoff team without being in the North?

 

[Spring in Fialta]

He claimed Price is the best, it's his responsibility to support his claim. Just because his claim is so weak that I can poke holes in it with straws, doesn't mean I'm grasping at them. I just don't need to use anything more substantial.

And, the West had 3 time zones last year, and a lot of teams played a lot of games without being able to practice. That doesn't mean that Montreal didn't benefit from being in the smallest, weakest division. Or do you honestly want to pretend they'd have been a playoff team without being in the North?

I'm saying you can't extract statistics from one division and apply them to another. I have no idea what happens if they play in another division - well, I guess if they played in Tampa's, they wouldn't have the reached the conference finals - and I'm not so sure why you're trying to argue that. What does it say then that Calgary finished at the bottom of that division and are now first in a different one - that's probably stronger?

This is the problem with folks like you. You think you can just willy-nilly take one number and apply them in an entirely different context. And regarding Price and Vasi, that's an immaterial argument to me. Both are superb playoff goaltenders and switch them out in last year's finals and I don't think the series goes much (if at all) differently. And frankly, I think they supported their argument much more than yours, which is just filled with convoluted narratives.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Would it be easier for you to understand if I post these?

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What a childish response.

 

[BLONG7]

He won a championship in the AHL, back in 2007. Didn't win in the CHL, and hasn't won in the NHL. Which other levels has he won at? Are you including the 5 or 6 game international tournaments in with actual league championships?

And, sure, he was definitely in net while the extremely stacked Team Canada won those gold medals. But facing 67 shots over 5 games in the Olympics on the best team in the world, en route to gold, isn't exactly suggestive that Price was a huge difference maker in those wins. It's a nice thing to have on his resume, but I think everyone knows, deep down, that Canada could have picked almost anyone and still won those tournaments.

Even though I'm not convinced he's as great as Habs fans proclaim, when Price is on his game, I agree that he's capable of being amazing. But, he's struggled with consistency since he was injured in 2015-16, and hasn't actually achieved anything to make his 261 games of mediocrity matter less.

I remember when Patrick Roy didn't win gold with Gretzky on their team.......your TC argument doesn't hold.
He won TC Jr Gold, and guys like Fleury choked his chance....
As I said we can agree to disagree.....
Cheers...

 

[CaptainBenn]

Would it be easier for you to understand if I post these?

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okay so by your logic McDavid isnt the best player in the world right now because he hasnt won a cup either
or matthews
or gaudreau
or whoever else lol

what a craptastic argument, at least the numbers prove you wrong, you may not like them but they dont follow your narrative

 

[Canadienna]

Haven't read through the posts, but I don't see any scenario where they retain a significant amount of salary to move him. The numbers don't work - why retain 4Mm then spend another 4MM on his replacement all to end up with 8mm stacked against an starter instead of 10.5 against a guy that can drag you on a finals run?

And I know the following is an outlier opinion, but I feel like he could still be one of the best goalies in the game for the next 2-3 years. I mean he was 10 months ago, so not crazy to assume a mentally and physically healthy Price is still the best big money goalie playing. Lots of tenders with Vezina's after the age of 35, writing him off as done is way premature.

So I think he sticks around, or some team takes him at close to full pop. Just doesn't make sense to retain 4-5MM. And I think Hughes and Gorton are not into a long drawn out rebuild, so you are probably best hoping your team gets back in the playoffs while you have him in seat.

Great post.

I agree with this analysis.

Basically if some team can fit most or all of his cap, then maybe there's a deal to be made to get Price another shot at the cup. If not, he likely won't be bought out or heavily retained on for the reasons you mentioned.

His comments today about only wanting to continue playing if he feels he can play up to his standard and not wanting to be a burden on his team makes it even less likely the Habs are forced to panic sell him.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

okay so by your logic McDavid isnt the best player in the world right now because he hasnt won a cup either
or matthews
or gaudreau
or whoever else lol

what a craptastic argument, at least the numbers prove you wrong, you may not like them but they dont follow your narrative

In the last 5 years, McDavid won 3 Rosses, 3 Pearsons, 2 Harts and will likely add to that this season. Since McDavid joined the league, he's scored 65 more points than anyone else, despite playing fewer games than anyone else in the top 5. 1.46 PPG with 2nd place at 1.31. It's so far from being close that there's simply no question who the best is.

Also, does anyone really claim that McDavid, Matthews or Gaudreau are the best PLAYOFF performer, like is being claimed about Price? Or expect everyone to just imagine how many points they would score on another team?

Price, on the other hand, is a miniscule 0.004 better than Vasi in playoff SV% over the last 5 years. That's 1 goal per 250 shots. Over 5 years, with Price facing 1053 shots, that means he's saved 4 goals that Vasi might have let in. Over 5 years. Not exactly the same level of dominance, right?

With SV% being so close as to make essentially zero real world difference, looking at other factors, like actually winning, becomes much more important. It really shouldn't be this difficult for the Price fanboys to understand this very basic concept, but since so many people are missing it, let me spell it out. My logic is that having a 0.004 better SV% over 5 years while losing is not better than having 2 Cups and a Smythe. Plus, if you use a more recent sample size of 2 years, Vasi has a 0.004 better SV% than Price, which even further erodes the only argument in Price's favor.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I remember when Patrick Roy didn't win gold with Gretzky on their team.......your TC argument doesn't hold.
He won TC Jr Gold, and guys like Fleury choked his chance....
As I said we can agree to disagree.....
Cheers...

You mean when Roy played with a 38 year old, broken down, only played one more NHL season after those Olympics Gretzky? And they lost to a Czech team with prime Jagr and prime Hasek? What exactly does that 1998 team losing to the best goalie in the world have to do with the fact that the 2014 team was stacked and Price only faced ~13 shots per game in the tournament.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I'm saying you can't extract statistics from one division and apply them to another. I have no idea what happens if they play in another division - well, I guess if they played in Tampa's, they wouldn't have the reached the conference finals - and I'm not so sure why you're trying to argue that. What does it say then that Calgary finished at the bottom of that division and are now first in a different one - that's probably stronger?

This is the problem with folks like you. You think you can just willy-nilly take one number and apply them in an entirely different context. And regarding Price and Vasi, that's an immaterial argument to me. Both are superb playoff goaltenders and switch them out in last year's finals and I don't think the series goes much (if at all) differently. And frankly, I think they supported their argument much more than yours, which is just filled with convoluted narratives.

But, I can extrapolate from known data. Montreal was in 12th place in the East when the regular season got shut down for covid, 10 points out of the last wildcard spot with 11 games to go. They didn't make the playoffs in either of the previous two years either. It's not difficult to look at this known data, and project that Montreal would have been a long shot to make the playoffs out of the East.

But, instead of having to beat at least 2 of Tampa, Florida, Boston, Toronto, Carolina, NYR, NYI, Washington, and Pittsburgh for the last wildcard spot, they got moved to the North, where there were 2 playoff spots completely up for grabs. Seems like a much better chance for them to make the playoffs, right?

And, you're right, Calgary did finish 4 points behind Montreal last year, at the bottom of the North, but I still don't quite get why. Their whole roster, which was mostly healthy and previously played much better (see 2018-19), just struggled for a couple of years. So, them being at the top of the Pacific this year says that they are playing back up to their abilities again, after a couple years of badly underachieving.

I do find it funny that you're project the entire argument for Price onto me. Because I'm not the one taking a single number (SV% over a 5 year period) and pretending that it proves Price is obviously the best. I agree that the Finals don't go differently if you swap goalies. Tampa was clearly the significantly better team. But, how does that support the claim that Price is better than Vasi? Clearing the same bar as someone else doesn't make you better.

 

[BLONG7]

You mean when Roy played with a 38 year old, broken down, only played one more NHL season after those Olympics Gretzky? And they lost to a Czech team with prime Jagr and prime Hasek? What exactly does that 1998 team losing to the best goalie in the world have to do with the fact that the 2014 team was stacked and Price only faced ~13 shots per game in the tournament.

Every team Canada is stacked and you know it.
That team Canada couldn't even win a medal......Lindros, Shany, Roy, Bourque the list goes on, almost like the way you do............
Again, I will say it, we can agree to disagree......

 

[BLONG7]

I'm saying you can't extract statistics from one division and apply them to another. I have no idea what happens if they play in another division - well, I guess if they played in Tampa's, they wouldn't have the reached the conference finals - and I'm not so sure why you're trying to argue that. What does it say then that Calgary finished at the bottom of that division and are now first in a different one - that's probably stronger?

This is the problem with folks like you. You think you can just willy-nilly take one number and apply them in an entirely different context. And regarding Price and Vasi, that's an immaterial argument to me. Both are superb playoff goaltenders and switch them out in last year's finals and I don't think the series goes much (if at all) differently. And frankly, I think they supported their argument much more than yours, which is just filled with convoluted narratives.

The guy is all stats............hasn't actually watched the Habs over the last several years, to see what an awful team the guy has dragged into the playoffs, when possible. The likes of David Desharnais as a #1 C to run the show up front!! LOL.....then Phil Danault, who we all know is a 2-3 C on any team he has ever played on....
Juggernauts as centre men on the team over the years....

 

[dredeye]

If price is healthy I don’t think Montreal would need to retain more than 1/4 of the remaining contract to get a good return. Price at 7.5 ish isn’t bad at all if he’s healthy

 

[Spring in Fialta]

But, I can extrapolate from known data. Montreal was in 12th place in the East when the regular season got shut down for covid, 10 points out of the last wildcard spot with 11 games to go. They didn't make the playoffs in either of the previous two years either. It's not difficult to look at this known data, and project that Montreal would have been a long shot to make the playoffs out of the East.

But, instead of having to beat at least 2 of Tampa, Florida, Boston, Toronto, Carolina, NYR, NYI, Washington, and Pittsburgh for the last wildcard spot, they got moved to the North, where there were 2 playoff spots completely up for grabs. Seems like a much better chance for them to make the playoffs, right?

And, you're right, Calgary did finish 4 points behind Montreal last year, at the bottom of the North, but I still don't quite get why. Their whole roster, which was mostly healthy and previously played much better (see 2018-19), just struggled for a couple of years. So, them being at the top of the Pacific this year says that they are playing back up to their abilities again, after a couple years of badly underachieving.

I do find it funny that you're project the entire argument for Price onto me. Because I'm not the one taking a single number (SV% over a 5 year period) and pretending that it proves Price is obviously the best. I agree that the Finals don't go differently if you swap goalies. Tampa was clearly the significantly better team. But, how does that support the claim that Price is better than Vasi? Clearing the same bar as someone else doesn't make you better.

Except Montreal made major changes between 2020 and 2021. These weren't the same rosters at all. Very funny that for Calgary, a two-year stretch of poor play and their good year is a return to the norm and for Montreal, it's COVID rules. The lack of self-awareness is astounding. The only way you can argue that Montreal was fortunate was if some special rule was applied to them (i.e., like 2020) but the 2020-2021 is an obvious crock of shit for anyone who has remotely any kind of critical thinking skills - they earned their spot like everyone else, did not benefit from any special rule, even though they were wrecked by COVID and went on a run when everyone got 'healthy' (i.e., Weber and probably Price were at the end of their rope). The idea that Montreal had a fortunate season is, without a single doubt, dumb as hell. I sincerely doubt you paid any attention to the Canadian division, the playoffs or the Habs if that's what you think happened.

 

[Lshap]

Except Montreal made major changes between 2020 and 2021. These weren't the same rosters at all. Very funny that for Calgary, a two-year stretch of poor play and their good year is a return to the norm and for Montreal, it's COVID rules. The lack of self-awareness is astounding. The only way you can argue that Montreal was fortunate was if some special rule was applied to them (i.e., like 2020) but the 2020-2021 is an obvious crock of shit for anyone who has remotely any kind of critical thinking skills - they earned their spot like everyone else, did not benefit from any special rule, even though they were wrecked by COVID and went on a run when everyone got 'healthy' (i.e., Weber and probably Price were at the end of their rope). The idea that Montreal had a fortunate season is, without a single doubt, dumb as hell. I sincerely doubt you paid any attention to the Canadian division, the playoffs or the Habs if that's what you think happened.

I've learned you can't have a discussion with someone who believes the stories in his head are real.

 

[Bouboumaster]

He's better than Montembeault at the very least lol

Cool to see him back

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Except Montreal made major changes between 2020 and 2021. These weren't the same rosters at all. Very funny that for Calgary, a two-year stretch of poor play and their good year is a return to the norm and for Montreal, it's COVID rules. The lack of self-awareness is astounding. The only way you can argue that Montreal was fortunate was if some special rule was applied to them (i.e., like 2020) but the 2020-2021 is an obvious crock of shit for anyone who has remotely any kind of critical thinking skills - they earned their spot like everyone else, did not benefit from any special rule, even though they were wrecked by COVID and went on a run when everyone got 'healthy' (i.e., Weber and probably Price were at the end of their rope). The idea that Montreal had a fortunate season is, without a single doubt, dumb as hell. I sincerely doubt you paid any attention to the Canadian division, the playoffs or the Habs if that's what you think happened.

Were any of those "major changes" made by a competent GM? Because, if those moves were made by Bergevin, I've been told by Habs fans that he wasn't very good at his job. Do you really trust that his moves would have moved you up 4 spots in the regular East, to make the playoffs in a normal year? Even with Price and Weber struggling with injuries? Seriously?

And, no, it wasn't a special rule that only benefitted Montreal. But, the North was a much easier path to the playoffs than the East has been in years. In a smaller pond with fewer big fish, the smaller fish benefit because they have an easier time.

Also, Calgary has players who have actually been good in the recent past. Gaudreau had a 99 point season in 2019. Lindholm and Tkachuk both had 0.96 PPG seasons. The won the Pacific that year.

The Habs, on the other hand, don't have anyone who had previously shown they can play at that level. And, I've been repeatedly told that the team sucks so much, that Price single handedly dragging them into the Finals is super impressive. So, which one is it? Do they suck so much that Price deserves bonus points or are they good enough that they definitely would have been in the playoffs, even without the special covid rules?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Every team Canada is stacked and you know it.
That team Canada couldn't even win a medal......Lindros, Shany, Roy, Bourque the list goes on, almost like the way you do............
Again, I will say it, we can agree to disagree......

Yes, every team Canada is stacked, and we all know it.
But, a single stacked team losing because they had to play against Dominik Hasek, doesn't make Price facing ~13 shots per game while his team walked through lesser competition more impressive.

And, if winning 5 games in 2014 behind Team Canada is a huge accomplishment, then winning 16 game and the Cup behind Tampa is too, and matters much more than a 0.004 difference in SV%.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

At least mine started with something resembling cohesion. You're claiming that losing in the first round is a "good playoff run", which is laughable.

Plus, covid is almost indisputably the big reason he got to play in the playoffs the last two years. They were 12th in the East in 2020, but still got a chance at the playoffs after covid shut down the regular season. Are we supposed to just pretend that they weren't 10 points out of the playoffs with 11 games to go, with the Rangers, Florida and Columbus in front of them with games in hand? Then, last year, they get to play in a 7 team mini-league where there isn't even a single team that finished with home ice advantage in the first round the previous year and 3 of the teams implode with injuries/covid/bad ownership. Is there a single team that benefitted more from the special covid rules than Montreal?

But, if you want to pretend that simply having the best SV%, by a margin of 0.004, means you're indisputably the best playoff goalie, despite never winning anything, you have fun with that. The reality is that Vasi is the best playoff goalie in the NHL over the last 5 years, and your insults and strawmen won't change that.

so the way that they made the playoffs invalidates Price's play once in the playoffs? You're gonna pull a muscle with these mental gymnastics man

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Were any of those "major changes" made by a competent GM? Because, if those moves were made by Bergevin, I've been told by Habs fans that he wasn't very good at his job. Do you really trust that his moves would have moved you up 4 spots in the regular East, to make the playoffs in a normal year? Even with Price and Weber struggling with injuries? Seriously?

And, no, it wasn't a special rule that only benefitted Montreal. But, the North was a much easier path to the playoffs than the East has been in years. In a smaller pond with fewer big fish, the smaller fish benefit because they have an easier time.

Also, Calgary has players who have actually been good in the recent past. Gaudreau had a 99 point season in 2019. Lindholm and Tkachuk both had 0.96 PPG seasons. The won the Pacific that year.

The Habs, on the other hand, don't have anyone who had previously shown they can play at that level. And, I've been repeatedly told that the team sucks so much, that Price single handedly dragging them into the Finals is super impressive. So, which one is it? Do they suck so much that Price deserves bonus points or are they good enough that they definitely would have been in the playoffs, even without the special covid rules?

This is really dumb.

What does Marc Bergevin having been an overall poor GM have to do with Tyler Toffoli, Josh Anderson and Joel Edmundson, Jake Allen and Cole Caufield being good hockey players? That's 3 top-6 players, a 1B goalie and a top-4 defenseman? You don't think that makes a radical difference?

You're inconsistent as hell. Two years is a long time to suck. And honestly, anyone who thinks Price dragged that team to the finals - Habs fan or not - is a moron. He was the best player, sure. But he didn't drag them at all. This wasn't some Giguere in 2003 shit.

My point isn't that Montreal would or would not have made the playoffs in another division. It's that it's immaterial and you have no way to know that, because applying their record in the Canadian division to another one is dumb as hell and shows an extremely poor understanding of mathematics and probability - Calgary was simply an easy example to show how poor your point was.

I think it's really time for you give this argument up and take the L. Consistency really isn't your forte. Woof.

 

[AslanRH]

I'm sure someone will win this merry go round argument on the next page or two.

 

[Lshap]

I'm sure someone will win this merry go round argument on the next page or two.

Point taken. This endless argument is done.