Assume for the sake of argument that Benning signs Myers for 7x7 and Miller hits 50+ points. Let's also assume we make the playoffs and TB gets the 18th pick in the 2020 draft. Does this justify both the trade and the signing? Are they both still bad deals? A bit of both?
I feel that as long as we make the playoffs in the next 2 years both can be justified. What say you?
No, and no.
Myers is already declining, so signing him for 7 years is a non-starter.
To me the goal is to maximize the window of EP/Boeser/Hughes and to a lesser extent Bo. Everything else and everybody on else on the team is a question mark.
Even if absolutely everything worked out with drafted prospects, and Tryamkin coming back, and Hughes meeting expectations, I think we're missing another puck-moving defenceman at minimum. In two years we'll be lucky if Juolevi/Woo could be 5-7 defencemen. Assume Edler/Tanev are hurt as usual or have been shipped out. That means your top-4 is Hughes-Tryamkin-Hutton-Stetcher. That's essentially the same defence that just finished a five year run of sucking, plus Hughes.
Would Myers help over the next two years? Probably, but only because our back-end is so thin that bringing in anyone better than Guddy (i.e. almost anyone) would be a positive change. But is Hughes-Myers-Hutton-Stetcher that much better?
Myer's decline is a known quantity already. I don't think this team can be a real CUP contender in two years, so any help from Miller/Myers to basically just squeeze into the playoffs is wasted - because in two years is when we'll have to start paying EP, bridge or long term Hughes, deal with Edler again, and maybe pay Demko depending where he is then. Will we want a hobbled Myers with 5 years remaining @ $7M then?
Forwards are in much better shape. Because of that context I think you can justify ADDING Miller. But then again, adding Miller isn't the issue, adding him at the cost we did is. Actually, if we had taken Marleau and paid with that 1st then it wouldn't have been an issue either. He is relatively cost controlled as well, although I would have liked to see his contract end a year early. In my opinion I want to have as much flexibility I can at the 2-4 year mark from today so I can keep the EP window open as long as possible, and even an extra year at $5M from Miller might hurt you there, even if he does produce well in the next two years.
Also, any draft picks we trade are possible cheap mid/bottom 6 players who we need to complement our top players. That first round pick, even as a mid 1st in 2021 could possibly add another d-man or a cost-controlled player who we will need after we pay EP.
Also, moves could be made to mitigate these issues like picking up some extra picks to replace what we lost, but why shoot yourself in the foot in the first place?
