Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller? | Part 2

[StreetHawk]

Interesting that the pick we dealt to Tampa now will be going to New Jersey in the deal for Blake Coleman. Devils getting ahead of the deadline market by flogging some of it's parts now.

Wow. Coleman costs more than Miller in terms of assets. Foote a first rounder from this past year vs the 70th pick that we sent to TB.

 

[VanJack]

Wow. Coleman costs more than Miller in terms of assets. Foote a first rounder from this past year vs the 70th pick that we sent to TB.

Lol!....yep. the Devils now own the Canucks first rounder either this spring or next year 2021. Coleman was having a nice season in NJ, but will nothing more than a complimentary piece with Tampa. Wondering if they're wishing now they could have just massaged their cap to find a way to keep Miller in the first place.

 

[PG Canuck]

Wow. Coleman costs more than Miller in terms of assets. Foote a first rounder from this past year vs the 70th pick that we sent to TB.

Coleman is the second coming of Jesus apparently so it’s perfectly fine to give up that return for him, but not for Miller (who has shown far more promise and production in his career).

I’m always left amazed when discussing this deal.

 

[NuxFan09]

Coleman is the second coming of Jesus apparently so it’s perfectly fine to give up that return for him, but not for Miller (who has shown far more promise and production in his career).

I’m always left amazed when discussing this deal.

Is that being said on the main boards or here?? If here, you just have to laugh. That's typical HF Canucks. The narrative changes all the time as long as it can make the Canucks and Benning look bad.

Anyway, I'm curious about something. I thought the original condition on the 1st we traded to Tampa gave the Canucks the option to CHOOSE which pick to give up - 2020 or 2021 - at a later date (aka by the time the 2020 draft hits). Writing it out now I feel like I'm totally out to lunch. I just remember folks discussing it as if the Canucks could choose.

Guess what I'm clarifying is if the condition on the pick going to New Jersey is the original condition or not. I would assume so, given it wouldn't make sense that the Canucks would have to honour a new condition if the pick is traded again.

 

[PG Canuck]

Is that being said on the main boards or here?? If here, you just have to laugh. That's typical HF Canucks. The narrative changes all the time as long as it can make the Canucks and Benning look bad.

Anyway, I'm curious about something. I thought the original condition on the 1st we traded to Tampa gave the Canucks the option to CHOOSE which pick to give up - 2020 or 2021 - at a later date (aka by the time the 2020 draft hits). Writing it out now I feel like I'm totally out to lunch. I just remember folks discussing it as if the Canucks could choose.

Guess what I'm clarifying is if the condition on the pick going to New Jersey is the original condition or not. I would assume so, given it wouldn't make sense that the Canucks would have to honour a new condition if the pick is traded again.

Oh here of course. I’ve seen everything from “you can’t judge a trade based on now” to pretty much everything else. But Blake Coleman guys, worth more! Hell, why didn’t the Canucks offer up more and get him? This board would’ve loved it.

The condition was based on the Canucks making playoffs. If Canucks missed this year, they keep it. If they make it this year, they trade it.

It’s why people are freaking out about making the playoffs this year and then somehow being a lottery team with no pick next year. Getting tired of the gymnastics.

 

[Jyrki21]

Coleman is the second coming of Jesus apparently so it’s perfectly fine to give up that return for him, but not for Miller (who has shown far more promise and production in his career).

I’m always left amazed when discussing this deal.

This seems about as honest a characterization as the continued insistence how “you guys only like Lack because of Twitter” despite having it explained multiple times.

 

[Jay Cee]

The gave up a lot for Coleman no doubt. I guess they feel they need to add someone who is a bit more of a two dimensional player for a run this year.

 

[bandwagonesque]

This seems about as honest a characterization as the continued insistence how “you guys only like Lack because of Twitter” despite having it explained multiple times.

The thing about explanations is they only deserve credence when they make sense. We also had it explained to us for months why the Miller trade was a disaster no matter how good he is.

 

[Fatass]

Oh here of course. I’ve seen everything from “you can’t judge a trade based on now” to pretty much everything else. But Blake Coleman guys, worth more! Hell, why didn’t the Canucks offer up more and get him? This board would’ve loved it.

The condition was based on the Canucks making playoffs. If Canucks missed this year, they keep it. If they make it this year, they trade it.

It’s why people are freaking out about making the playoffs this year and then somehow being a lottery team with no pick next year. Getting tired of the gymnastics.

Miller was (is) worth the value we gave up to get him. That’s not the question. The question is the timing of the trade. Were we far enough into our rebuild to give up a first for a player who is 27? Miller is not part of our young core; he’s a support player. IMO we moved too soon on the philosophy of that trade. IMO our young core was not ready fir this.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I hated the trade. Thought we were going to make the playoffs, but just barely, and had a real shot at being a lottery team. So it would be the 1st pick in 2021, where all it would take is an injury to EP and/or Markstrom, and we would be in major trouble.

Reality is that we are way better than I expected, JTM QH and Markstrom are all having amazing years. However we are a 5 Win streak, vs a 5 game losing streak from being near the top of the league or on the outside looking in for the playoffs. We are presently 14th in the standing. Assuming everyone else plays .500 hockey, a 5 game skid would have us 20th in the standings. VS a 5 game win streak, would have us tied for 4th.

Anyhow, part of the reason I think TB made this trade is because they think the Canucks will easily make the playoffs this year, and this pick is now only of moderate value. We shall see.

 

[StreetHawk]

Miller was (is) worth the value we gave up to get him. That’s not the question. The question is the timing of the trade. Were we far enough into our rebuild to give up a first for a player who is 27? Miller is not part of our young core; he’s a support player. IMO we moved too soon on the philosophy of that trade. IMO our young core was not ready fir this.

Issue with the Miller trade will be what do they do contract wise when his deal is up after the 4 seasons and he’s 30 years old?

3 more years from now is 2023, so Petey will be 24 that summer turning 25 in the fall, Hughes will be 23 turning 24 in the fall. Horvat will be 28 and a ufa needing a new deal. Boeser will be have either signed a 1 year deal with his arbitration rights, signed long term or traded by then.

with the sea that Schenn got in STL which kicks in when he’s 29 for 8 seasons that is scary to think about giving that to Miller.

so the Canucks need to make some noise in these 4 years to maximize what they get out of the deal.

 

[JimmyJiveJones]

I hated the deal just because i didnt believe a 20 goal, sub 50 pt player was worth a 1st rounder imo but thats up for debate. But also Tampa was in a cap crunch, it was pretty obvious they were trying to shed salary to sign Point which makes them have very little leverage in a trade. Its like a broke guy selling $1000 worth of gold but instead of giving him $800 for it, we paid $1200. Our only saving grace is that the gold is now worth $1800.

 

[StreetHawk]

I hated the deal just because i didnt believe a 20 goal, sub 50 pt player was worth a 1st rounder imo but thats up for debate. But also Tampa was in a cap crunch, it was pretty obvious they were trying to shed salary to sign Point which makes them have very little leverage in a trade. Its like a broke guy selling $1000 worth of gold but instead of giving him $800 for it, we paid $1200. Our only saving grace is that the gold is now worth $1800.

That’s also assuming that no other teams were interested. Yes TB was ina cap crunch but Miller had good numbers in the 50+ point totals while in NYR as well.
Thought he would have been a good target for Colorado as his deal would expire when MacKinnon’s deal expires. Certainly they could have matched our deal.
Versatile forward who can play all positions and the Avs still have plenty of cap space. But the Avs went with Burkovsky at $3 mill for a 2nd and 3rd. You’d think for $2 mill extra in cap plus 1 earlier round in the draft should be a price Sakic should pay given the talent on his team but he opted for roll the dice with Burkovsky whom Washington would be hard pressed to give a QO to with their tight cap. Burkovsky putting up a good year with the Avs but he’s in year 6 so a year away from ufa.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

I hated the trade. Thought we were going to make the playoffs, but just barely, and had a real shot at being a lottery team. So it would be the 1st pick in 2021, where all it would take is an injury to EP and/or Markstrom, and we would be in major trouble.

Reality is that we are way better than I expected, JTM QH and Markstrom are all having amazing years. However we are a 5 Win streak, vs a 5 game losing streak from being near the top of the league or on the outside looking in for the playoffs. We are presently 14th in the standing. Assuming everyone else plays .500 hockey, a 5 game skid would have us 20th in the standings. VS a 5 game win streak, would have us tied for 4th.

Anyhow, part of the reason I think TB made this trade is because they think the Canucks will easily make the playoffs this year, and this pick is now only of moderate value. We shall see.

Look at the division instead of the standing
Pacific is weak this season. 90 pts might even get you in the playoffs

 

[Jyrki21]

Miller was (is) worth the value we gave up to get him. That’s not the question. The question is the timing of the trade. Were we far enough into our rebuild to give up a first for a player who is 27? Miller is not part of our young core; he’s a support player. IMO we moved too soon on the philosophy of that trade. IMO our young core was not ready fir this.

The original critique ignores this point (TB is trying to put itself over the top, vs. Vancouver who was trying to crawl into the playoffs – trying to equate them is silly) with taking a lazy shot at @MS for liking Coleman as a target for a team trying to go all-in. Why am I not surprised who jumped in to ignore this further.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Oh here of course. I’ve seen everything from “you can’t judge a trade based on now” to pretty much everything else. But Blake Coleman guys, worth more! Hell, why didn’t the Canucks offer up more and get him? This board would’ve loved it.

The condition was based on the Canucks making playoffs. If Canucks missed this year, they keep it. If they make it this year, they trade it.

It’s why people are freaking out about making the playoffs this year and then somehow being a lottery team with no pick next year. Getting tired of the gymnastics.

Right, because Tampa in 2020 is a comparable team to the Canucks in 2019.

One team has put up the greatest season of all time post-lockout and has been a perennial Cup contender over the last few years. The other has been one of the worst teams in the league, with four consecutive bottom 10 finishes. It makes total sense for Tampa to have traded for Coleman; they needed that last piece to go for a Cup again. And IIRC, Tampa has two 1st round picks, so trading a 1st round pick was more justifiable for them (never mind where each team is at in terms of competitiveness).

 

[bandwagonesque]

The JT miller trade worked, and I don't think there isn't a single sensible poster who would take the trade back. There are a few intermittently sensible posters making tangential arguments that the trade isn't as good as we think, or saying it needs to be judged by standards that are different in multiple ways from the standards we use to judge most other trades other GMs have made, but we're all used to that at this point. Conversations like this about highly successful trades don't take place on any other team board I've ever read.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

The JT miller trade worked, and I don't think there isn't a single sensible poster who would take the trade back. There are a few intermittently sensible posters making tangential arguments that the trade isn't as good as we think, or saying it needs to be judged by standards that are different in multiple ways from the standards we use to judge most other trades other GMs have made, but we're all used to that at this point. Conversations like this about highly successful trades don't take place on any other team board I've ever read.

The fact that the trade is based on a contingency makes it difficult to evaluate from its inception. Normally I'd agree - judging a trade at the time that it's made is the proper approach. You can still do that with this trade, but there's just way more uncertainty involved since the 1st round pick could literally land anywhere in the 1st round. You know this. Most people on here (not HF Canucks, but HF Boards generally) did not believe we were a playoff team this year; hence why it was such a risky trade to have made. You know this. I know this. We all know this. I know you know it, though.

 

[F A N]

Coleman is the second coming of Jesus apparently so it’s perfectly fine to give up that return for him, but not for Miller (who has shown far more promise and production in his career).

I’m always left amazed when discussing this deal.

You're only amazed because you don't get it. It's all about timing. Haven't you heard? Trading for Miller was a bad deal for the Canucks because of risk! That pick is going to be the 1st overall pick. You know it! No one expected Miller to be a near point per game 1st line winger so the fact that he is just that still makes it a bad trade for the Canucks because of timing! Miller trade was a great trade for TB because they needed cap space and Benning didn't negotiate!

This Coleman trade is a great trade for TB because of timing. They are going to win the Cup with Coleman as their 3rd line C!

 

[PG Canuck]

You're only amazed because you don't get it. It's all about timing. Haven't you heard? Trading for Miller was a bad deal for the Canucks because of risk! That pick is going to be the 1st overall pick. You know it! No one expected Miller to be a near point per game 1st line winger so the fact that he is just that still makes it a bad trade for the Canucks because of timing! Miller trade was a great trade for TB because they needed cap space and Benning didn't negotiate!

This Coleman trade is a great trade for TB because of timing. They are going to win the Cup with Coleman as their 3rd line C!

Canucks need to wait until Pettersson is 30 before trying to win. I haven’t read any replies to what I posted because I don’t care to go around in circles for 5 hours.

 

[bandwagonesque]

The fact that the trade is based on a contingency makes it difficult to evaluate from its inception. Normally I'd agree - judging a trade at the time that it's made is the proper approach. You can still do that with this trade, but there's just way more uncertainty involved since the 1st round pick could literally land anywhere in the 1st round. You know this. Most people on here (not HF Canucks, but HF Boards generally) did not believe we were a playoff team this year; hence why it was such a risky trade to have made. You know this. I know this. We all know this. I know you know it, though.

Everyone realizes it was risky. Everyone realizes the risk paid off.

 

[Luck 6]

Miller was (is) worth the value we gave up to get him. That’s not the question. The question is the timing of the trade. Were we far enough into our rebuild to give up a first for a player who is 27? Miller is not part of our young core; he’s a support player. IMO we moved too soon on the philosophy of that trade. IMO our young core was not ready fir this.

There are dominoes to every decision. If we didn’t trade for Miller, that cap space would have likely been spent on some sub tier free agent. And, by acquiring another PPG player, I feel the Canucks have moved back into the radar of a team that should be able to attract free agents looking to join a winning organization. We have told the world “we’re about to start going for it”, that has a intangible value in itself.
This team is like the Canucks in 2007/2008. We aren’t there yet where we can compete for a cup, but if we’re smart about our cap space as these contracts start to expire over the next few years, we could be. Miller helps establish that, and will still be able to establish that 3 years from now, at which point he will still be under contract for well below market value.

And, he’s also only 26 this season.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Everyone realizes it was risky. Everyone realizes the risk paid off.

Probably, but we still don't know where the pick ends up. It's easy to declare us as a playoff team now, but with Boeser/Ferland being out long-term, there's still a chance we can free fall.

 

[Canucks1096]

You're only amazed because you don't get it. It's all about timing. Haven't you heard? Trading for Miller was a bad deal for the Canucks because of risk! That pick is going to be the 1st overall pick. You know it! No one expected Miller to be a near point per game 1st line winger so the fact that he is just that still makes it a bad trade for the Canucks because of timing! Miller trade was a great trade for TB because they needed cap space and Benning didn't negotiate!

This Coleman trade is a great trade for TB because of timing. They are going to win the Cup with Coleman as their 3rd line C!

So we look at timing to determine if the trade is good or not? So we ignore end results? The end results is there is a good chance the 1st round pick is around 20th overall. Sure no one expected a ppg 1st line forward. I was predicting around 60 to 65 P I remember. Miller put a 56 P season playing with Hayes and Grabner so there was definitely upside to produce more with Petey.

So pretend if you are a cup contender and you traded a 1st round pick for a rental but that player didn't produce any points and signed with another team, the team didn't get pass the 1st round. You are saying it is still a good trade Because it was good timing because they are cup contender and we ignore the results?

 

[mossey3535]

The trade turned out pretty well...but we have to make the playoffs this year to really seal it.

With hindsight you can see how Miller really helps Boeser/Petey but I don't think there was a need to double down with another "top-6" winger because I don't think this is this core's window. Miller makes sense because he is locked up for another three years after this one.